Colchester P&R Demand Modelling LDF Submission Document v5

K:\Transport Studies\Projects\Colchester Demand Modelling Reports Summary\Colchester P&R Demand

Modelling LDF Submission Document v5.doc

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Cuckoo Farm Park & Ride Demand Modelling LDF Submission Document

15th November 2007 Produced for Essex County Council Prepared by Mouchel Transport Planning Victoria House 105 – 107 Victoria Road Chelmsford Essex CM1 1JR UK T 01245 247000 F 01245 247001



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Document Control Sheet

Project Title Cuckoo Farm Park & Ride Model

Report Title Cuckoo Farm Park & Ride Demand Modelling LDF Submission Document

Project Number

Revision 05

Status Draft Final

Control Date 15/11/2007

Record of Issue

01 Draft Final A. Ditima 16/11/07 C. Harvey 16/11/07

Distribution

Organisation Contact Copies

Essex County Council Helen Ramsden 2 electronic (discs)

4 hardcopies

Mouchel Amos Ditima 2 hardcopies



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Contents

Document Control Sheet ............................................................................................2

Contents ......................................................................................................................3

1 Introduction ........................................................................................................7

1.1 Study background and aim...................................................................................7

2 Input values ........................................................................................................8

2.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................8

2.2 In-scope traffic demand........................................................................................8

2.2.1 Financially In-scope Demand 9

2.2.2 Geographically In-scope Demand 10

2.3 Parking Costs.....................................................................................................11

2.4 Journey times.....................................................................................................12

2.5 Model Constants ................................................................................................13

2.6 Other input values ..............................................................................................14

3 Park & Ride Demand Forecast: Base Case ....................................................15

3.1 Derivation of Demand Forecast..........................................................................15

3.2 Demand forecast for the Base Case...................................................................15

3.3 Destination Choices ...........................................................................................16

3.4 Sensitivity Testing ..............................................................................................16

3.5 Long Stay Car Park Closure...............................................................................17

3.6 Park & Ride Bus Fare Testing ............................................................................18

4 Park & Ride Demand Forecasts: with Growth................................................20



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4.1 In-scope Demand after Growth ..........................................................................20

4.2 Growth Scenario with Increased Journey Times.................................................23

4.3 Growth Scenario with Increased Journey Times & Parking Charges ..................23

5 Conclusions .....................................................................................................24



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Tables

Table 2.1 – Input values and parameters for the Colchester & Sandon Park & Ride Models ......................................................................................................................8

Table 2.2 - In-scope Demand by Corridor (Total Financially In-scope Demand by Geographically In-scope Corridor)...........................................................................11

Table 2.3 - Model Input – Journey Times (minutes).................................................13

Table 3.1 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output: Base case .................................15

Table 3.2 – Vehicle Arrivals by Destination for the Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Base case ...............................................................................................................16

Table 3.3 – Summary of Sensitivity Testing for key input variables .........................17

Table 3.4 - Impact of Closure of Long Stay Car Parks.............................................18

Table 3.5 - Park & Ride Bus Fare versus Passenger Numbers by Group................19

Table 4.1 – In-scope Demand by Corridor: 2011 with Growth .................................21

Table 4.2 – In-scope Demand by Corridor: 2021 with Growth .................................22

Table 4.3 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output ...................................................23

Table 4.4 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output with car journey times increased by 25%.........................................................................................................................23

Table 4.5 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output with car journey times & town centre parking charges increased by 25%...............................................................23



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Figures

Figure 3.1 - Park & Ride Bus Fare & Revenue Sensitivity .......................................18



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1 Introduction

1.1 Study background and aim

Mouchel Parkman were commissioned by Essex County Council to carry out a study to investigate the patronage demand for a proposed Park & Ride site in Colchester, at Cuckoo Farm (CF). The study involved the development of a demand model to predict the possible patronage.

This report summarises the findings of a number of reports and includes information on demand for the base case and future year predictions. Scenarios tested include:

• Base

• 2011 with Growth

• 2011 with Growth + Journey Time Increase + Car Parking Charge Increase

Chapter 2 below explains the model inputs used in the model. The inputs include parking cost, Park & Ride bus fare, journey time and a description of in-scope demand. Chapter 3 belowexplains the model outputs in terms of Park & Ride demand forecasts for the base case.

Demand forecasts for future year scenarios are presented in Chapter 4 and the conclusions are presented in Chapter 5.



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2 Input values

2.1 Introduction

Table 2.1 below details input values used for the Colchester Prk & Ride Model as well as those used for the model developed for Sandon, Chelmsford.

Table 2.1 – Input values and parameters for the Colchester and Sandon Park & Ride Models

MP Sandon P&R Model Parameters MP Colchester P&R Model

Parameters

Input Parameters Peak Off-Peak Peak Off-Peak

Period 08:00-09:00

(for calibration)‡

7 hrs long 07:00-09:00 09:00-16:00

Town Centre parking

cost per vehicle

£3.19 £2.25 £4.36 £2.28

Park and Ride return

fare per vehicle

£1.50 per person £1.50 per person £1.50 per person £1.50 per person

Value of time per

vehicle

10.8p per min∗ 12.4p per min∗ 10.4p per min∗ 12.8p per min∗∗

Value of walk time per

vehicle

21.6p per min+ 24.8p per min+ 20.7p per min+ 25.6p per min∗∗

Peak % decrease in

Park and Ride journey

time

40% - Cuckoo Farm

16%

-

LOGIT model scaling factor (�)

-0.012 -0.012

Modal constant (K) 125 125

Bus headway 5 mins 6 mins 7 mins 7 mins

Car egress (weighted) 8.3 mins 5.6 mins 7.4 mins++ 5 mins++

Park and Ride egress 3 mins 3 mins 3 mins 3 mins ‡ To predict full demand we would consider the peak period of 07:00-09:00 ∗ 9.7p per commuter and 12.8p per non-worker/non-commuter ∗∗ All non-workers/non-commuters + 19.5p per commuter and 25.6p per non-worker/non-commuter ++ 8 minutes for long stay car parks and 5 minutes for short stay car parks.

2.2 In-scope traffic demand

The basic input into the model is in-scope demand, which can be broken down into two types as follows:

• Financially In-scope Demand – representing trips that pay for car parking in the Park & Ride bus drop off zone;

• Geographically In-scope Demand – representing trips with origins and destinations that make them potential users of the Park & Ride.



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The Park & Ride drop-off zone is the Colchester Town centre plus the Colchester North Rail station where there is proposed to be a stop. This encompasses all paid car parking in Colchester (except Colchester General Hospital). Specific stops in the town centre were not identified as part of the initial work.

2.2.1 Financially In-scope Demand

Town Centre Parking

The total financial in-scope demand was derived directly from car park data supplied by Colchester Borough Council (CBC) for all Borough car parks during the month of October 2005. This data consists of all arrivals at each car park each day, disaggregated by the parking tariff paid. In order to divide the car park demand into time periods, it was assumed that:

• peak period arrivals consist of vehicles charged for over 6 hours in short stay car parks and all vehicles in long stay car parks except half of those staying up to 4 hours; and

• off-peak period arrivals consist of all short stay car park trips staying for less than 6 hours and the remaining half of long stay car parkers staying up to 4 hours.

Vehicles staying ‘up to 4 hours’ in long stay car parks were split 50/50 between peak and off-peak periods by assuming a turnover rate of two times per day, which lies between typical long stay and short stay turnover rates.

The factors derived from the CBC car park data were extrapolated to provide an estimate of in-scope demand for the two NCP short stay car parks in Colchester that have a capacity of 600 spaces each.

Colchester North Rail Station Parking

The financially in-scope demand for the Rail Station was estimated based on a count of parked cars in the station car park at 9am on a weekday in September 2006.

Colchester General Hospital Parking

The use of Park & Ride by hospital staff and visitors was investigated at this initial stage and it was considered that there was limited scope for diversion to Park & Ride. This was due to the negligible cost of parking to staff (approximately £1 per week) and a lack of data on visitor parking at this stage. More information was required on visitor parking to ascertain potential in-scope demand for Park & Ride.

Overall Car Parking Demand Estimates

All the car park data was combined to produce an estimate of the total demand for paid public parking for the two periods, that is, the peak 2-hour period between 7am and 9am and the off-peak period between 9am and 4pm.



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It should be noted that, according to the CBC website, the total supply of long stay town centre parking in Colchester is 790 spaces. This is relatively low compared with Chelmsford which has about 2,600 long stay spaces. This may be due to the relatively high level of Private Non-Residential parking in Colchester with about 4,000 spaces available (“Colchester Car Parking Study”, JMP Consultants Ltd, 1996), which can be compared with 7,500 PNR spaces in Chelmsford (“Park & Ride Case Assessment for Essex”, Atkins, 2004).

2.2.2 Geographically In-scope Demand

Geographically in-scope demand includes trips from road corridors that would potentially divert to the Park & Ride based on their origin and a destination in the town centre catchment served by the Park & Ride bus.

The 2001 Journey to Work Census data was used for this purpose. A matrix of origin-destination movements to Colchester town centre were extracted from the data for the car-driver purpose for a defined zone system that represents the catchment of each corridor into Colchester. The relative proportions in this matrix were then used to determine the in-scope demand for each corridor for the peak period. For the off-peak period, which is dominated by non-commuter trips, the distribution was also based on the Journey to Work data with the proportion of trips from origins external to Colchester reduced to take into account local shopping.

The distribution for the Rail Station trips was also based on the census data utilising the train journey to work matrix. Origins were considered in-scope based on proximity to the station relative to other stations in the area. Where it was considered that trips could potentially use either the Hythe or Colchester North station, they were divided based on the relative proportion of the number of users of each station.

The base financially in-scope demand for all trips to the town centre was then distributed between the various corridors or zones from which the trips to the town centre and Rail Station originate. It was this demand for each corridor that was entered into the model representing the combination of both financially and geographically in-scope demand. Table 2.2 below shows the total in-scope demand for each transport corridor leading to the town centre and railway station.



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Table 2.2 - In-scope Demand by Corridor (Total Financially In-scope Demand by Geographically In-scope Corridor)

Corridor

Town Centre

Demand Peak

Period (2 hours)

Town Centre

Demand Off Peak Period

(7 hours)

Railway Station Demand

Peak Period

(2 hours)

Institute Demand

Peak Period

(2 hours)

Institute Demand Off Peak Period

(7 hours)

A12 N & A120 E 78 455 34 84 57

A137 Manningtree 13 139 0 13 9

A133 E 53 311 0 57 39

B1022 Maldon 14 143 3 13 9

A12 S 87 510 0 94 64

A1124 Halstead 30 311 15 29 20

B1508 Sudbury 14 145 90 13 9

A134 Sudbury 38 393 130 36 25

Stanway 50 514 175 47 32

Mile End Road 10 104 38 10 7

Ipswich Road 43 440 122 40 28

Total Geographically AND Financially In-scope Demand

430 3464 608 436 299

Financially In-scope and Geographically Non In-scope Demand

301 2833 519 294 201

Total Financially In-scope Demand (total paid parking)

731 6297 1127 730 500

2.3 Parking Costs

The parking cost in Colchester was derived from data collected in Colchester for the month of October 2005. The peak and off-peak period parking costs were derived



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by combining the demand in each period, weighted with the appropriate parking tariff. The parking costs used in the model are:

• Peak average parking cost of £4.24

• Off peak average parking cost of £2.29

2.4 Journey times

A key component of the generalised cost in the model is based on journey times. These journey times are measured from the point where the route diverts from the usual journey to the town centre or rail station to the Park & Ride facility. There are also estimates of journey times for the diversion route to the Park & Ride facility. The values used for journey time in the model are outlined in the table below.

These journey times are measured and/or estimated from the point where the routes divert from their usual journey to the town centre or railway station to the Park & Ride facility. These journey times are based on a combination of historic surveyed data and estimates based on estimated speed and distance. Table 2.3 below lists the journeys along the various corridors.

A factor is also applied to represent the impact of any bus priority measures on the journey times. The following values were used for the peak period based on estimates of the speed and distance of potential bus priority lanes established in the planning of the Cuckoo Farm site:

• decrease in Park & Ride bus journey time to town centre of 16% from Cuckoo Farm, and

• no increase in car journey times to town centre in the peak period.

In the off-peak period it was assumed that the car and bus journey times would be the same.



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Table 2.3 - Model Input – Journey Times (minutes)

Corridor Time Period Journey Time to

Town Centre

Journey Time to

Rail Station

Diversion Time

to Cuckoo Farm

Peak 15.00 8.70 2.00 A12 N & A120 E Off-peak 8.80 5.77 2.00

Peak 12.20 15.67 10.97 A133 East Off-peak 5.93 12.47 10.20

Peak 21.83 - - B1022 Maldon Off-peak 17.83 - -

Peak 24.00 17.70 11.00 A12 South Off-peak 15.00 13.77 10.50

Peak 18.00 11.70 5.00 A1124 Halstead Off-peak 9.00 7.77 4.50

Peak 13.35 - - B1508 Sudbury Off-peak 13.35 - -

Peak 16.42 6.70 1.07 A134 Sudbury Off-peak 7.66 3.77 0.82

Peak 15.00 19.68 12.52 Stanway Off-peak 11.88 15.00 10.14

Peak 14.37 4.00 1.07 Mile End Road Off-peak 6.67 2.66 0.82

Peak - 15.00 10.00 Ipswich Road Off-peak - 11.00 7.00

Peak 13.79 5.63 - Cuckoo Farm P&R Off-peak 7.66 3.77 -

Note: The journey times in the above table from the P&R facilities in the peak period include the factor

for bus priority.

2.5 Model Constants

There are two constants in the LOGIT function that are used to define the curve that is used to calculate the proportion of vehicles that will divert to the Park & Ride. These are the LOGIT function scaling factor (�) and the Modal constant (K).

The LOGIT scaling factor alters the rate at which people switch from car to Park & Ride travel for a given change in the difference in costs between the two modes. As such, it is a measure of how sensitive people are to the overall cost of their journey.

The modal constant (K) represents the cost in pounds, all other costs being equal between modes, at which 50% of the in-scope demand will switch modes. This encapsulates preferring one mode over another for reasons other than time and



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cost, in this case preferring the car, for reasons including personal security, convenience, quality of vehicle, etc. This varies from town to town and depends largely on the affluence of the area and how accepting the potential users are of Park & Ride. Increasing the modal constant reduces the level of diversion to Park & Ride.

The model used the following constants:

• LOGIT model scaling factor (�) of -0.012

• Modal constant (K) of £1.25

2.6 Other input values

Various other input data that is unique to the Colchester Model is outlined below.

• Peak bus headway: (time to access the Park and Ride site plus the time waited for the bus) 7 minutes

• Off-peak bus headway: 7 minutes

• Peak egress for car trips: (walk time from car park to destination) 7.4 minutes

• Off-peak egress for car trips: 5 minutes

• Peak egress for Park and Ride trips: (walk time from bus to destination) 3 minutes

• Off-peak egress for Park and Ride trips: 3 minutes

It was assumed that the Park & Ride bus runs every 8 minutes in both peak and off-peak periods. Egress times were based on estimates of average walking distance and speeds.



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3 Park & Ride Demand Forecast: Base Case

3.1 Derivation of Demand Forecast

Estimates of forecast demand were made for both peak and off-peak periods, based on demand curves used in the Sandon model. Peak hour demand was required as an input into a proposed economic assessment and was derived from the peak period demand using a factor derived from the split in arrivals at public car parks in Chelmsford.

During the off-peak period short stay trips were predominant. These trips paid less for parking, had lower in-car journey time costs and higher vehicle occupancy that resulted in higher costs on the Park & Ride compared to the car journey. As such, the difference in generalised cost during the off-peak period was small and more often in favour of the car journey.

The model also provided output on total daily demand in vehicles and in passengers. Daily demand in vehicles was derived simply by adding the peak period demand to the off-peak period demand. The output for daily demand in passengers was derived by applying the factors for vehicle occupancy by purpose to the time period demand.

The maximum number of parking spaces required at the Park & Ride sites was estimated based on the peak period and off-peak period demand. This value was derived by dividing the demand in vehicles for each time period by the turnover for that time period. Turnover for each time period was based on a value of one for the peak period arrivals (predominately commuters) and a three hour stay for the off-peak arrivals (predominately shoppers).

3.2 Demand forecast for the Base Case

The following table shows the demand forecast by the model for the present day (base case) scenario. This includes demand for the Colchester Institute. The results are presented in Table 3.1 below as a range to represent the limits defined by the Modal Factor, that is, K=125 – K=90.

Table 3.1 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output: Base case

Daily Useage (passengers)

Daily Arrivals (vehicles)

Max Parking (vehicles)

Peak Period Arrivals

(vehicles)

Off Peak Arrivals

(vehicles)

929 – 1212 685 – 878 565 – 703 475 – 571 209 – 307



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Peak period demand for the Cuckoo Farm site implemented on its own ranges from 475 to 571 vehicles.

For Cuckoo Farm alone the forecast demand for the off peak period ranges between 209 and 307 vehicles. During the off peak period short stay trips predominate.

The likely number of parking spaces required for each site would range between 565 and 703.

The output values used in the rest of this document are based on K = 125.

3.3 Destination Choices

The other key output from the model was the level of demand contributed by the Town Centre trips and those to the Colchester North Railway Station. The key component of the peak period demand for the Cuckoo Farm Park & Ride site was that associated with the Colchester North Rail Station with around 60% of the peak period demand.

Table 3.2 below shows the numbers of vehicles with destinations in the town centre and at Colchester North Rail Station, arriving at Cuckoo Farm daily and during the peak and off-peak periods.

Table 3.2 – Vehicle Arrivals by Destination for the Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Base case

Destination Daily Arrivals

(vehicles) Peak Period

Arrivals (vehicles) Off Peak Arrivals

(vehicles)

Town Centre 420 210 210

Colchester North Rail Station 270 270 0

3.4 Sensitivity Testing

The Colchester Park & Ride Demand Model was subjected to sensitivity testing. The key input variables in forecasting the demand for Colchester were:

• Car journey time

• Vehicle occupancy by purpose

• Parking cost

• Egress times

Table 3.3 below summarises results of the sensitivity testing for these variables for the Park & Ride site at Cuckoo Farm.



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Table 3.3 – Summary of Sensitivity Testing for key input variables

Value Model Output (daily usage in

vehicles) – Peak Period Model Output (daily usage in vehicles) – Off-peak Period

Parameter Base Test Base Test Change Base Test Change

+25% 577 +21%

-25% 374 -21% Car Journey Time – peak

-

+50%

475

672 +41%

-

-

-

+25% 407 -14% Occupancy – commuter 1.16

-25% 475

549 +16% - - -

+25% 470 -1% 118 -43% Occupancy – other 1.72

-25% 475

481 +1% 209

367 +75%

+25% 232 +22% 209 +1% Town centre Parking Cost – long stay

- -25%

190 148 -22%

207 205 -1%

+25% 204 +7% 280 +35% Town Centre Parking Cost – short stay

- -25%

190 176 -7%

207 152 -27%

+25% 227 +20% 210 +2% Town Centre Car Park Egress – long stay

8 mins -25%

190 152 -20%

207 204 -2%

+25% 193 +2% 290 +40% Town Centre Car Park Egress – short stay

5 mins -25%

190 186 -2%

207 146 -29%

+25% 361 +33% Railway station Parking Cost – peak

£5.00 -25%

271 178 -34%

- - -

3.5 Long Stay Car Park Closure

An initial and simplistic test was undertaken on the impact of closing all the long stay car parks in Colchester. This represents the closure of 790 long stay spaces. This had been tested in the model simply by putting the price of long stay parking to £7.50, which represents the price of short stay parking for 6 to 9 hours as an alternative to Park & Ride. The results from this test are outlined in Table 3.4 below.



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Table 3.4 - Impact of Closure of Long Stay Car Parks

Change in Peak Period Arrivals of Vehicles Cuckoo Farm (from Town Centre)

190 � 340

The data in Table 3.4 indicates that the number of trips using the Park & Ride in the peak period to access the town centre increases by up to double with the closure of the long stay parking. However, this level of patronage is still relatively low due to the high level of private non-residential parking available in Colchester town centre and the subsequently low level of existing paid long stay parking.

3.6 Park & Ride Bus Fare Testing

Figure 3.1 below illustrates the impact of changing the Park & Ride bus fare on the forecast daily passenger numbers on the Park & Ride and is a simplistic look at the resulting impact on revenue as measured simply by multiplying the passenger numbers by the bus fare.

Figure 3.1 - Park & Ride Bus Fare & Revenue Sensitivity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

£1.00 £1.25 £1.50 £1.75 £2.00 £2.25 £2.50 £2.75 £3.00

Fare (£)

Num

ber

of P

asse

nger

s D

aily

£0

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

£1,400

£1,600

P&

R R

even

ue p

er d

ay (£

)

Number of Passengers Daily Revenue per day (£)

This data indicates that as expected, the passenger numbers fall as the Park & Ride bus fare rises. It also indicates that there is a comparatively small change in bus fare revenue until the fare price increases above £2.00 when it starts to fall more sharply.



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Also of interest when looking at passenger numbers and the impact of the Park & Ride bus fare is how the relative proportions of passengers by destination change between peak and off peak periods. Table 3.5 below provides data on which groups are forecast to continue to use Park & Ride as the bus fare increases.

Table 3.5 - Park & Ride Bus Fare versus Passenger Numbers by Group

Peak Period Town Centre

Passengers

Peak Period Rail

Passengers

Off Peak Period Town

Centre Passengers

Fare Number % of Daily Number % of Daily Number % of Daily

£1.25 207 26% 293 38% 262 33%

£1.50 190 28% 271 40% 207 30%

£1.75 174 29% 249 42% 163 27%

£2.00 157 30% 227 43% 127 24%

£2.25 142 31% 205 45% 99 22%

£2.50 127 32% 184 46% 78 20%

£2.75 113 33% 164 48% 60 18%

£3.00 99 33% 146 49% 47 16%

The data in the table indicates that as the Park & Ride bus fare increases the proportion of the daily passengers in the peak period increases and the proportion in the off peak period decreases. Within the peak period, the proportion of passengers associated with the railway station increases more compared to peak period trips to the town centre. This is as expected given the relative differences in the average amount paid for parking during the off peak (£2.29), in the town centre during the peak period (£4.24) and at the railway station (£5.00). Therefore, those paying more for parking are more likely to continue to use the Park & Ride at higher fare tariffs.



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4 Park & Ride Demand Forecasts: with Growth

ECC together with Colchester Borough Council (CBC) provided Mouchel Parkman with data on the Local Development Framework (LDF) new employment and housing numbers for Colchester Borough to be used as the basis of future growth scenarios for 2011 and 2021. ECC and CBC also gave an indication of the number of visitors the new Visual Arts Facility in Colchester would be likely to attract. Broad assumptions have been made concerning the trips generated by this growth.

In addition, ECC required that sensitivity tests be undertaken for these future year scenarios to include potential increases in journey time as a result of the additional traffic associated with the new employment and housing and potential increases in parking charges. An increase of 25% in both peak period journey times and parking charges was assumed.

4.1 In-scope Demand after Growth

The estimated in-scope demand after growth is shown in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 below for 2011 and 2021 respectively.



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Table 4.1 – In-scope Demand by Corridor: 2011 with Growth

Corridor

Town Centre Demand Peak

Period (2 hours)

Total Extra Demand

above Base case Peak

Town Centre Demand Off Peak Period

(7 hours)

Total Extra Demand

above Base case

Off Peak

A12 N & A120 E 136 59 479 23

A137 Manningtree 19 5 139 1

A133 E 86 33 315 3

B1022 Maldon 21 7 158 15

A12 S 151 64 543 33

A1124 Halstead 46 16 313 2

B1508 Sudbury 22 7 146 1

A134 Sudbury 59 21 450 57

Stanway 77 27 591 77

Mile End Road 15 5 323 60

Ipswich Road 62 19 500 219


693 264 3956 492


447 145 4657 1824


1140 409 8613 2316



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Table 4.2 – In-scope Demand by Corridor: 2021 with Growth

Corridor Town Centre Demand

Peak Period (2 hours)

Total Extra Demand

above Base case Peak

Town Centre Demand Off Peak Period

(7 hours)

Total Extra Demand

above Base case Off Peak

A12 N & A120 E 136 59 479 23

A137 Manningtree 19 5 139 1

A133 E 86 33 315 3

B1022 Maldon 21 7 162 19

A12 S 151 64 543 33

A1124 Halstead 46 16 313 2

B1508 Sudbury 22 7 146 1

A134 Sudbury 59 21 450 57

Stanway 77 27 643 129

Mile End Road 15 5 993 889

Ipswich Road 62 19 532 92


693 264 4714 1249


447 145 5864 3032


1140 409 10578 4281



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Table 4.3 outlines the 2011 and 2021 Park & Ride demand using the in-scope demand with growth from Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 respectively.

Table 4.3 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output

Daily Usage (passengers)

Daily Arrivals

(vehicles) Max Parking

(vehicles)


(vehicles)

Off Peak Arrivals

(vehicles)

2011 with Growth 1140 840 700 600 240

2021 with Growth 1240 900 710 600 300

4.2 Growth Scenario with Increased Journey Times

Table 4.4 shows the impact of increasing car journey times by 25% for the cases with growth in 2011 and 2021 respectively.

Table 4.4 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output with car journey times increased by 25%


Daily Arrivals


(vehicles)


(vehicles)

Off Peak Arrivals

(vehicles)

2011 with Growth 1300 970 830 730 240

2021 with Growth 1400 1030 860 730 300

4.3 Growth Scenario with Increased Journey Times & Parking Charges

Table 4.5 shows the impact of increasing car journey times and town centre parking charges by 25% for the case with growth in 2011 and 2021 respectively.

Table 4.5 – Cuckoo Farm Demand Model Output with car journey times & town centre parking charges

increased by 25%


Daily Arrivals


(vehicles)


(vehicles)

Off Peak Arrivals

(vehicles)

2011 with Growth 1550 1140 840 810 330

2021 Growth 1690 1220 980 810 410



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5 Conclusions

The demand modelling for the proposed Park & Ride site in Colchester at Cuckoo Farm reveals the following key conclusions:

1. Base Case

• If Cuckoo Farm were to be constructed, the forecast demand is estimated to be 690-880 vehicles per day (570-700 spaces). The Cuckoo Farm forecast is based on ECC advice that a reduction in journey time is possible on the part of the bus route on North Station Road.

• The estimated peak period demand for Cuckoo Farm is 480-570 vehicles.

• The forecast demand at Cuckoo Farm for the 7 hour off peak period is 210-310 vehicles.

• The demand associated with Colchester North Railway Station accounts for about 60% of the total peak period demand at the Cuckoo Farm site.

2. Future Year Scenarios

• ECC and CBC have provided forecast housing and employment data for two future year scenarios (2011 and 2021). The impact of the predicted increase in housing and employment on Park & Ride demand has been tested. In addition, scenarios have been tested with this future year growth and an increase in peak period car journey times as well as a scenario with growth, an increase in peak car journey times and an increase in car parking charges. It should be noted, however, that these scenarios are based on the following assumptions:

o All newly generated trips to the town centre pay for parking.

o All new housing trips travel to Colchester town centre as opposed to other external locations.

o All new employment trips occur in the peak period and are therefore more likely to transfer to Park & Ride.

o Only the car journey times have been increased. This therefore assumes that bus journey times are unaffected by the increase in road congestion and so implies that adequate bus priority exists for the entire Park & Ride bus route.

• Forecast Park & Ride demand with growth, for Cuckoo Farm for these scenarios is as follows:



© Mouchel 2007

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o 2011 growth: 840 vehicle arrivals per day

o 2011 growth + increased car journey time: 970 vehicle arrivals per day

o 2011 growth + increased car journey time + increased car parking charges: 1,140 vehicles per day

o 2021 growth: 900 vehicle arrivals per day

o 2021 growth + increased car journey time: 1,030 vehicle arrivals per day

o 2021 growth + increased car journey time + increased car parking charges: 1,220 vehicles per day

• The 2021 forecasts with growth based on best outcome estimates of demand from new housing suggest the potential for Park & Ride facilities of 980 parking spaces at Cuckoo Farm.

Colchester P&R Demand Modelling LDF Submission Document v5

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