Col Harold A. Elkins Chief, Weather Plans Division
description
Transcript of Col Harold A. Elkins Chief, Weather Plans Division
I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
Headquarters U.S. Air Force
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Col Harold A. ElkinsChief, Weather Plans Division
NSWP AssessmentOFCM Silver Spring, MD
7 Jul 05
XOO-W NSWP AssessmentXOO-W NSWP Assessment
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• AFW/AFSWP Links
• AFW Contributing Efforts
• AFW Future Capability
• Way Ahead
• Summary
Overview
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AFW Linkages to NSWP Goals
National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, 2nd Edition, July 2000
<= Collection
<= Analysis
<= Forecasting
<= Tailoring, Dissemination, & Integration
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AFW Contributing Efforts
• Cumulative 21% of AFW resources since 1998 dedicated to space weather
• Observation: Global space weather data collection network--5 solar radio and
optical observatories: Italy, Sagamore Hill, Holloman, Hawaii, Australia
Ionospheric sounding network on four continents Energetic particle data from military satellites Global network directly measures ionospheric scintillation
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AFW Contributing Efforts
Data Processing and Analysis: Ionospheric data available to DoD and DoC “Official” 3-hour (ap) averaged geomagnetic index
Auroral boundary and radar clutter HF point-to-point and global propagation Radar correction factors UHF SATCOM scintillation/point-to-point SATCOM link analysis Single-frequency GPS error estimates Hourly ionospheric activity indexes Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies
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AFW Contributing Efforts
• Forecasting: “Official” 3-hour averaged (ap) geomagnetic index 24-hour HF point-to-point and 6-hour global HF propagation 1-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast; 6-hour scintillation outlook 24-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation point-to-point outlook 1-hour Single-frequency GPS error estimates
• Space weather products and services: Ionospheric Effects Characterization (IEC) Initial Capabilities Document
(ICD) Web accessible index, analysis and forecast products User-specific tailored products Advisory, watch and warning notification tied into users’ operation centers Established ingest, dissemination and communication architectures Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages
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AFW Contributing Efforts
• Numerical Modeling: AFWA Space Weather Operations Center (Space WOC)
runs the following models:
• Technology Transition: AFWA established dedicated space weather technology
transition cell; permits streamlined conduit to transition high priority technology into AFW operations
Transitioning GAIM—IOC FY07 UPOS improved geomagnetic activity index (Kp) algorithm
successfully transitioned
IACTN PRISM WBMOD PPS PIM
CRRESELE CRRESPRO CRRESRAD VOACAP MSM
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Overall Current Capability Assessment
Domains C A F T D M T2
Solar/
InterplanetaryG Y Y/R R G Y/R R
Magnetosphere Y/R Y/R R R G Y/R R
Ionosphere Y Y R Y G Y/R G
Neutral Atmosphere
Y Y R R Y R Y
C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = TailorD = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition
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AFW Future Capability
• Observation: Civil-Military Enterprise: global network of ionospheric
collectors More numerous energetic particle data from military
satellites (CEASE) Global network and satellite beacon (C/NOFS) directly
measure ionospheric scintillation
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AFW Future Capability
• Data Processing and Analysis: Ionospheric data assimilation of many sources Improved ap accuracy (UPOS Kp algorithm)
Auroral boundary and radar clutter HF point-to-point and global propagation Radar correction factors UHF SATCOM scintillation Single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates Hourly ionospheric activity indexes Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies
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Civil-Military Enterprise
From this:34 Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations
To this:Civil-Military Enterprise ofSeveral hundredScintillation, TEC and EDP stations
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AFW Future Capability
• Forecasting:Improved ap geomagnetic indexPhysics-based 24-hour HF point-to-point and HF propagation forecastsPhysics-based UHF SATCOM scintillation forecastPhysics-based single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimatesMagnetospheric/radiation belt forecastingGeosynchronous energetic electron forecasts
• Space weather products and services:Tailored, specific space weather information integrated directly into
operators’ Command and Control and Situational Awareness systemsIntegrated, net-centric dissemination and communication architectures Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages
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AFW Future Capability
• Numerical Modeling: GAIM IOC FY07 Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model
(MSFM) Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM)
• Technology Transition AFWA transition of MSFM and REFM underway
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Overall Future Capability Projection
Domains C A F T D M T2
Solar/
InterplanetaryR/G R/Y R/Y R G R/Y R
Magnetosphere Y/R Y/R Y R G Y G
Ionosphere G G Y Y G Y G
Neutral Atmosphere
Y Y R R Y Y/R R
C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = TailorD = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition
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Way Ahead
• Follow IEC ICD through the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) process
• Work the Civil-Military Enterprise with NOAA to expand access to ground-based ionospheric sensor data
• Integrate space weather into war fighter command and control, and situational awareness architectures
• Operationalize current research (i.e. CISM, CCMC, UPOS, etc.) as it matures, and as resources allow, to improve capability
• Continue partnerships with other government agencies to advance NSWP goals and enhance national space weather capability
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Summary
• AFW: a significant contributor to NSWP goals
• Activities underway continue to progress NSWP goals• Identified all-service ionospheric requirements to
DoD through JCIDS process• Goal: secure funding/resources to improve space
weather
• Multi-agency partnerships crucial to continued advancement of space weather capabilities
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Questions?