COBR: Influenza Pandemic (Emergency Response Simulation...
Transcript of COBR: Influenza Pandemic (Emergency Response Simulation...
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COBR: Influenza Pandemic (Emergency Response Simulation), by Eleanor Newton,
Lancaster University BA Hons student, 2015
Please direct all enquiries to:
Dr Matthew Johnson, Lecturer in Politics, Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion,
Lancaster University, [email protected] or;
Katherine Young, Recruitment Co-ordinator, Department of Politics, Philosophy and
Religion, Lancaster University, [email protected]
WARNING: In preparing for the role play scenario, students must only research the conflict
using reputable mainstream media sources, such as The BBC, CNN, ITN, The Guardian, The
Times, The Independent, The Telegraph, etc. Briefing papers are provided to explain the
broader context of the conflict.
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COBR:
Influenza
Pandemic
(Emergency
Response
Simulation)
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General Introduction:
Feedback from a previous similar simulation exercise cited its
‘immersive’ nature, contribution to the development of skills
including ‘public speaking, negotiation, planning and preparation,
roleplay and ICT’ and its scope for ‘independent thinking and
learning’ as key components to its success. This simulation has
therefore been designed with careful reference to this previous
feedback with regards to its pace, structure, development of
transferable skills, complexity and format of information, and
enjoyability. This political simulation will be based upon an
influenza pandemic scenario within the UK; taking the form of a mock
‘Cabinet Office Briefing Room’ table-top, time-lapse activity. The
exercise will be predominately student-led due to the targeted age
(16-18 year olds) however facilitators will be on hand to ensure the
flow of the simulation, the safety of the pupils and the dissemination
of resources. In order to ensure students gain first-hand experience
of the difficulties associated with responding to crises, information
will be limited and real-time interjections will take place. Students
will leave the exercise with a greater understanding of the general
UK political process, its institutions, its actors and its scope,
through the microcosmic lens of the crisis. Logistical and pedagogical
considerations have been taken into account at all levels of the
simulation’s design in order to maximize its impact.
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Aims and Objectives:
1. Content-oriented primary aim: To gain an understanding of the
actors, issues, institutions and limitations involved in the UK
policy-making process.
The specific objectives within this aim are to introduce or enhance
students’ understanding of a)the general scope of political decision
making within the UK b)the actors, agencies and institutions involved,
both at a national and international level, and their corresponding
roles/responsibilities c)the ethical, legal and economic
considerations involved in making often-difficult decisions, d)the
importance of political communication and the media, and finally e)the
potential political, economic and social implications of a health
crisis.
2. Process and skills-oriented secondary aim: To develop a broad
range of cross-curricular and transferable skills:
The specific objectives within this aim are to use and improve a range
of essential skills including a) independent research, b) teamwork,
debate, conflict resolution and cooperative decision-making, c)the
ability to analyse and interpret complex, incomplete or potentially
unreliable pieces of information and identify the key points,
d)effective and appropriate media communication and e)self-reflection
and evaluation.
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Simulation Design:
General:
● Students will be allocated their role (depending on numbers,
extra roles could be included/omitted or roles may be filled by
several students) and issued with the initial Task, Scenario
Briefing Paper and the ‘Warning and Informing the Public’
guidance sheet (based on official UK government guidelines.1
● Students will then be required to further research their roles
and consider their responsibilities/areas of expertise in
relation to the scenario.
● Students may also wish to familiarise themselves with real-life
examples of pandemics and responses to them, and critically
analyse the impact they may have within the specific area covered
by their department.
● At the initial meet, each student should introduce themselves
and their role within the process to the other members of the
group and decide upon certain operational considerations: how
decisions will be made within the tasks?
● The simulation will take the form of a table-top role-play under
time-lapse rather than real-time conditions.
● Task 1 (the first 24 hours) will be set, debated and decisions
made, based on the information provided in the initial Scenario
Briefing Paper. Students will prepare their first press release
(in which they shall convey the government’s response and advise
the public).
● Task 2 (the first week) will be set, debated and decisions made,
based upon the second briefing sheet received. ETC...
● During the simulation, several further interjections may take
place to challenge the students and replicate real-life
conditions: in response to the constructive feedback provided,
these will take the form of multimedia and suggestions have been
provided within the resources.
1https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/
253488/Emergency_Response_and_Recovery_5th_edition_October_2013.pdf
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Logistical Information, Pedagogical Considerations & Extra
Concerns:
● Ideally the simulation should take place over the course of half
a day, in order to allow for unstructured debate (process-
orientated) alongside the completion of tasks, press releases
and the reflection exercise (content-orientated).
● The simulation will be student-led, however a facilitator will
be present to disseminate the information updates, manage
timekeeping, lead the debrief and ensure the welfare of the
students involved is not compromised at any point.
● The involvement of specific roles have been incorporated into
different tasks within the game to better-facilitate full
participation and encourage quieter members of the group to
become more involved: at the same time allowing for spontaneous
interjections of other actors to allow for student creativity
and role immersion.
● Inclusiveness of the simulation should be prioritised:
consequently it is suggested that roles are given out on a random
basis in order to prevent already confident students from
dominating roles they may deem more important.
Timetable and Instructions:
Time Activity Details/ Instructions
One Week Prior
to Event
Student
preparation for
simulation
Students should be assigned their role, given
the relevant role information sheet, all should
receive the initial briefing sheet with media
brief attached. Students should be tasked with
researching their role.
8:30am-9:00am Final
Preparations
and Arrivals
Convenors and facilitators should ensure the
COBR simulation room is fully equipped in terms
of table space, seating, pens/paper, ‘place
settings’, projector screen (for interjections)
and power ports for laptops .
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9:00am-9:30am Role
Introductions
(should also
serve as an
icebreaker)
Students will take their assigned seats and
introduce themselves and their role to the other
members of their group: choosing how decisions
within the room are to be made.
9:30am-10:15am Complete Task 1
and Press
Release 1
*Students will debate the issues arising from
the initial briefing sheet: presenting their
conclusions within the press release.
Interjections will be used as specified.
10:15am-11am Complete Task 2
and Press
Release 2
*As above
11am-11:15am Short Break N/A
11:15am-12pm Complete Task 3
and Press
Release 3
*As above
12pm-12:45pm Complete Task 4
(Debrief)
*As above
12:45pm-1:30pm Finish for
Lunch
N/A
The following
day
Complete
Feedback Sheets
Students will be asked to fill in the feedback
sheets provided to be sent to the Convenor
At a Later time Press
conference
Students may at a later time give their ‘final
report’ as a filmed press conference which could
be used in outreach material.
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Roles:
Prime Minister Leader of the
Opposition
Secretary of State
for Foreign and
Commonwealth
Affairs
Chancellor of the
Exchequer
Home Secretary Secretary of State
for Defence
Secretary of State
for Health
Secretary of State
for Transport
Secretary of State
for Energy
Secretary of State
for Work and
Pensions
Press and
Communications
Officer
Secretary of State
for Communications
and Local
Government
Secretary of State
for Environment,
Food and Rural
Affairs
Secretary of State
for Education
Civil Contingencies
Secretariat
(CONVENOR ROLE)
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Role Sheet (to be filled in by student)
Role General Duties/
Responsibilities
Scenario-specific
Priorities
Extra Motivations
(Be Creative!)
(ie. Job/
position title)
(ie. General job
description)
(ie.Consider how
your areas of
concern may be
affected)
(ie. You may wish
to use this
crisis to gain
extra funding for
your department)
Suggested Resources:
● https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/cabinet-office/about:
Descriptions of government ministers’ roles
● http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18958032: a brief overview of
how the cabinet operates
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“Warning and Informing the Public”:
Guidance on Media Handling and Communications:2
● The main purposes of government communications and media relations in a major
incident are: “To maintain confidence in the government; To support the response
objectives, specifically the prevention of loss of life and detection of further
incidents or developments; To keep the public fully informed; and To assist in the
management of community impact and any consequences arising from an incident”
● You must remember that under the Civil Contingencies Act of 2004 “there are two
aspects of the duty in relation to communicating with the public. The first is that
the public be made aware of the risks of emergencies. The second is that
arrangements are made to warn the public and that the public be provided with
information and advice as necessary” (7.1 cca)
● You must also (as stipulated within the CCA Regulations) keep in mind the need not
to alarm the public unnecessarily, when making arrangements to warn, inform and
advise them. (7.8,7.9)
2 (adapted from: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140122145147/http:/www.levesoni
nquiry.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/MPS-6-Guidance-on-Media-
Handling.pdf)
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TASK 1 RESOURCES
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Task 1 Instructions:
20/11/2015
The Cabinet Office
Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)
You have been summoned here today for an emergency meeting
concerning the potential outbreak of an infectious disease. You have
been provided with a report from the GSR, adapted from the DH
Pandemic Influenza National Framework. You have 45 minutes in which
to consider the information provided to you, and prepare a press
release detailing your response.
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Initial Briefing Paper:
Key Information:
● Information supplied to us last week by the CDC suggested that an
American patient, suffering from a currently unidentified virus had
recently returned from holidaying in Europe.
● A further dozen cases have now been confirmed in the USA; a
spokesperson for the French government suggested Europe should be on
the lookout for people who may have been exposed to the patient.
● We have since received unconfirmed reports from several emergency
rooms of patients coming into A&E with symptoms similar to those seen
in ‘Patient Zero’.
Key Issues:
● With confirmed human to human contact, the virus currently
constitutes a ‘phase 4’ threat according to the World Health
Organization pandemic assessment framework
● Current modelling suggests that “from the time it begins in the
country of origin it could reach the UK within two to four weeks.
Once in the UK, it is likely to spread to all major population
centres within one to two weeks, with its peak possibly only 50 days
from initial entry”.
● Data shows that “it is unlikely that the UK could prevent importation
except by closing all borders entirely”
● “Public and political concern, general scrutiny and demands for
advice and information are inevitable at all stages of an influenza
pandemic.” It is important that during the management of your
response, the dissemination of effective advice and information is
prioritised.”
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Example of Extra Source Materials:
*Extra Material
designed to help
make the simulation
more realistic
could include:
a:CDC Letter
b:Description of
symptoms
c:Details of
hospitals*
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TASK 2 RESOURCES
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Task 2 Instructions:
27/11/2015
The Cabinet Office
Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)
You have been provided with a further report from the GSR,
summarizing the developments of the last seven days. You have 45
minutes in which to consider the updated information provided to
you, and prepare a press release detailing your response.
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Interjection 1: Information Briefing Paper 2: 1 week later:
Key Information:
● It has become apparent
that the virus has
indeed spread beyond
American borders.
Europe has responded by closing its borders.
● There have now been over a dozen confirmed cases in Britain, with
many more hospitals reporting suspected cases.
● With outbreaks having been identified in the UK, the threat level has
been increased to the UK Alert Level 3 (WHO level 6)
Key Issues:
● Exacerbated by the border closures and likely to worsen due to fear
of infection or actual illness: “Society is also likely to face much
wider social and economic disruption, significant threats to the
continuity of essential services, lower production levels, shortages
and distribution difficulties. Staffing is therefore the critical
element in business and service continuity plans.”
● Advising those with symptoms to stay at home in voluntary isolation,
or school closures may be an effective means of slowing the virus’
progression; but may exacerbate disruption.
● The key concern, is now the maintenance of vital public services and
essentials such as: energy and water, food and supplies, financial
services, public transport and general healthcare.
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Example of extra source materials:
*Extra Material designed to
help make the simulation more
realistic could include:
a:Copy of the Border Closure
vote results
b:Image showing projected
spread in UK
c:News report showing that
concerns are being raised
about the impact of the virus
on certain services*
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TASK 3 RESOURCES
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Task 3 Instructions:
27/12/2015
The Cabinet Office
Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS)
You have been provided with a further report from the GSR,
summarizing the developments of the last thirty days. You have
45 minutes in which to consider the updated information
provided to you, and prepare a press release detailing your
response.
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Interjection 2: Information Briefing Paper 3: 1 month later:
Key Information:
● A UK level 4 threat has been confirmed, with approximately 23% of the
population affected by the virus. Severity of symptoms has varied,
with approximately 65% of the infected recovering with self-care, 20%
following hospital admission and with a 15% mortality rate.
● Disruption to goods and services, alongside increased pressures upon
the police services has led to a rise in crimes including looting and
rioting.
● There have also been renewed calls for the enforcement of the
quarantining of individuals who may be suffering from the virus.
Key Issues:
● Part 2 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 “established a new generic
framework for emergency powers, allowing the Government to make
special temporary legislation (emergency regulations)where existing
legislation is insufficient to respond in the most effective way”.
● Key provisions under the Public Health Act include: “powers to seek
orders requiring a person to be medically examined, removed to, or
detained in hospital”, “powers to request a person does not attend
work; to require a child not to attend school”, and “the creation of
criminal offences where people expose others to the risk of
infection”.
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Examples of Extra Source Material:
*Extra Material designed
to help make the
simulation more realistic
could include:
a:Photos of looting
b:Copy of police report
c:Evidence from twitter*
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TASK 4 RESOURCES
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Task 4 Instructions:
Three months have passed since your first meeting. An inquiry into
the governmental handling of the 2015 influenza pandemic has been
ordered. You should:
1. Assess the general impact and instigate/implement/support
recovery measures
2. Identify and act upon lessons learnt
3. Provide ongoing advice and support for the public
A Press conference will be arranged at a later date. It is
recommended that you evaluate your individual and group performance
over the last few months.
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Interjection 3: Information Briefing Paper (Report), 3 months
later:
Key Information:
● With levels of infection having returned to below that expected
within a normal seasonal flu outbreak, the UK threat level has been
lowered; the pandemic has been declared over and Britain has now
entered its recovery phase.
Breakdown of the Impact:
● Health: The NHS coped with the situation with difficulty. Waiting
times for assessment and treatment were far below what was expected.
It is believed that the already-strained health services would have
been unable to cope with a second wave of infection.
● Services: The scale of staff absences disrupted the ability of
businesses and public services to meet the needs of the population.
In the private sector, food supply was the major cause for concern;
in the public sector, demand for medicine overwhelmed supply.
Businesses lost a lot of money and have demanded assistance from the
government in recovering.
● Law and Order: The impact of disruption to policing is estimated to
have caused £1.3billion worth of damage in terms of loss of stock and
vandalism. Calls for increased patrols have resurfaced
● Communications: Though government communication was largely coherent
and detailed, there have been issues with the consistency of the
messages delivered.
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Examples of Extra Source Material:
*Extra Material designed to help make the simulation more realistic
could include:
a:Comedy show comments on government response
b:Image showing demands for an investigation
c:Renewed protests about NHS staffing
d: Evidence of suffering businesses*
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Simulation Feedback Sheet:
To what extent did the simulation
exercise help to develop your skills in
the following areas?:
1= Not at all
5= Significantly
(Please Circle Appropriately)
Independent research 1 2 3 4 5
Analyzing and interpreting complex
information 1 2 3 4 5
Working in a group 1 2 3 4 5
Communicating 1 2 3 4 5
Working with limited time and information 1 2 3 4 5
Self-evaluation and reflection 1 2 3 4 5
To what extent did the simulation
increase or cement your awareness of
the following:
1= Not at all
5= Significantly
(Please Circle Appropriately)
The actors and institutions involved in the
policy-making process 1 2 3 4 5
The difficulty involved in multi-actor,
multi-interest and multi-level decision
making
1 2 3 4 5
The real processes and issues involved in
responding to major events 1 2 3 4 5
The role of the media and importance of
political communication 1 2 3 4 5
Ethical, legal and economic considerations
involved in policy-making 1 2 3 4 5
The Different agencies, public services,
international bodies and NGOs 1 2 3 4 5
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1. What I liked about the simulation:
2. What could be improved:
3. Further comments: