Coastal Energy Facilities and Adaptation: guidance ... · Coastal Vulnerability of Energy...
24
Science and Tools for Understanding Coastal Vulnerability of Energy Facilities Dr. Susan Wilhelm, California Energy Commission Dr. Li Erikson, U.S. Geological Survey
Transcript of Coastal Energy Facilities and Adaptation: guidance ... · Coastal Vulnerability of Energy...
Science and Tools for Understanding Coastal Vulnerability of Energy Facilities
Dr. Susan Wilhelm, California Energy Commission Dr. Li Erikson, U.S. Geological Survey
Scope of Talk
• State mandates regarding adaptation and sea-level rise • Sea level rise guidance documents • Gallery of tools portraying coastal vulnerability • Tour of the Our Coast, Our Future tool
State Mandates: Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise
• Executive Order B-30-15: Resources Agency must – Update state’s climate adaptation strategy
(Safeguarding California) every three years – Oversee implementation
• AB 2516 requires State to create a Sea-Level Rise Planning Database. Entities required to provide planning information include: – Energy Commission – Investor-owned utilities – Publicly owned electric and natural gas utilities
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Defines “sea level rise planning information” as studies, programs, modeling, mapping, cost-benefit analyses, vulnerability assessments, adaptation, assessments, and local coastal programs developed to address or prepare for sea level rise. (sec. 30962) Does not require SLR planning information to be developed, adopted, or updated by a public agency or private entity (sec. 30964 (b)). Expressed intent is to produce a publicly available, centrally located, up-to-date, georeferenced database of efforts related to SLR planning (sec. 30961). SLR database: by 1/1/2016. Bill text: http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2516
State Guidance Documents: Sea Level Rise
• Ocean Protection Council: 2013 Update to Interim Sea-Level Rise Guidance document – Incorporates 2012 NAS report on SLR off coasts of
California, Oregon, Washington – Similar central estimates for “expected” SLR in 2030,
2050, 2100; but wider range of uncertainty – Incorporated vertical land movement based on north
(uplift) vs. south of Cape Mendocino • CA Coastal Commission: Sea Level Rise – Draft
Policy Guidance currently in public review.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
OPC’s 2013 Update: http://www.opc.ca.gov/2013/04/update-to-the-sea-level-rise-guidance-document/ 2012 NAS report: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13389/sea-level-rise-for-the-coasts-of-california-oregon-and-washington CCC Draft Guidance under public review: http://www.coastal.ca.gov/climate/slrguidance.html
Tools for Exploring California SLR • Cal-Adapt: State-of-the-art results from USGS’s Coastal Storm Modeling System, as
well as “bathtub” model results for the entire coast. http://cal-adapt.org/sealevel/
• Our Coast, Our Future (CoSMoS model): Partnership between USGS, Point Blue, and others for sophisticated modeling of storm, tides, SLR, and erosion processes. http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/
• NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and Climate Central’s Surging Seas Risk Finder apply modified bathtub models to coastal California.
• Under development: Data Basin’s Climate Console Other projects that explore particular regions of California: • Humboldt Bay Sea Level Rise Adaptation Project:
http://scc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/humboldt-bay-shoreline.pdf
• Adapting to Rising Tides (in Alameda county): http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/
• Coastal Resilience
Ventura (The Nature Conservancy): http://coastalresilience.org/project-areas/ventura-county-challenges/
Tools: Our Coast, Our Future • OCOF: Interactive tool
that can be used to explore multiple storm scenarios, king tides, wave heights, ocean currents, and more.
• CoSMoS: Coastal Storm Modeling System. Results from this model are used in the OCOF tool. Currently available only for the Bay Area and portions of north coast.
• More regions are being modeled.
S.F. Bay
Bodega
Half Moon Bay
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Suggest replacing this slide with previous one.
• Extending geographic scope to Pt. Arena, and to include Southern California
Tools: Our Coast, Our Future
Pt Arena
Southern CA Bight
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Li starts here
What makes CoSMoS unique? • Explicit, deterministic modeling of all the relevant physics of a coastal
storm with regional consistency
• Wave climate developed from the most sophisticated Global Climate Models (GCMs) developed for IPCC 2013
• Waves are modeled at the global scale, and then dynamically downscaled, along with regional additions of wind, atmospheric pressure, tides and sea level rise, to produce hazards projections at the parcel scale
• Scenarios feature the full spectrum of SLR rise (0-2 m, 5 m) and coastal storms (daily-100 year return) to meet every possible planning horizon
Presenter
Presentation Notes
General description of model. And what sets it apart from others.
OCOF tool: GIS layers
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Some examples of useful outputs that managers (energy utilities) could use for adaptation work. Point out that GIS layers include energy and other utilities, that socioeconomic analysis is being added, and that other GIS layers can be added.
OCOF tool: GIS layers
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Types of useful outputs continued… Here I will quickly flip through 6 slides to show changes in flood extents with respect to SLR in a region with energy utlities.
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
Easily flip through SLR scenarios…
What SLR should I use?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Highlight available tool for assisting in selecting SLRs.
Flood potential and uncertainty
Flood potential maps include estimates of • Vertical land
movement • Marsh
accretion • Elevation
uncertainty • Model
uncertainty
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty includes vertical land movement as guided by OPC
Compare no storm & with storms…
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Highlight the added value of including storms… not just bathtub approach. Next few slides are flipped through quickly.
Compare no storm & with storms…
Compare no storm & with storms…
Compare no storm & with storms…
Generate summary reports of your area of interest…
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Nice tool that summarizes vulnerabilities of a user-defined area.
*For more information on CoSMoS model and OCOF tool, contact
Patrick Barnard at [email protected] or Li Erikson at lerikson@
• USGS CoSMoS website:
http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/index.html
• Our Coast- Our Future tool: http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/
