coalition building and power reconfiguration in post-SBYJK Indonesia
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Transcript of coalition building and power reconfiguration in post-SBYJK Indonesia
Coalition Building and Power Reconfiguration in Indonesia After the 2009 Parliamentary Elections
THE RACE TO ISTANA MERDEKA
Three new rules:
MPs are determined by votes not party rank
Parliamentary threshold: 2.5% votes
Candidacy of president: 25% votes or 20% parliament seatsfrom a party or a coalition of parties
Results: 9 parties are going to the parliament
11.9%
7.9%3.4%
2.3%
9.5%
1.8%
1.06%
4.6%
2.8%
Votes Transfers 2004-2009Source: CIRUS Surveyor Group
PD
PDIPPAN
Golkar
PKB
PPP
PKSFirstVoters
Gerindra
Hanura
Why Democrat Party Wins?
The SBY FactorGood Image: LeadershipIntellectualism Nationalist religiousReformasi’s Suharto
Organized Campaign
Political consultant:FoxIndonesia
2nd largest campaign fund:S$ 35 millions
“Pro-people” policies
Cash Transfer Program (BLT)
Lower Oil Prices
School subsidies
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 1
PDPDIP
PAN
Golkar
PKB PPP PKS
Gerindra
Hanura
Popularity > 50%
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 2
PDPDIP
PKB
PKSGerindra
Hanura
“Grand Coalition”
PPP PAN
GolkarSBY JK Divorced
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 3
PDPDIP
Golkar
PKB
PKS Gerindra
Hanura
JK-Win declared“Faster is Better”
PPP
PANMegawati vs. Prabowo
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 4
PD
Golkar
Gerindra
Hanura
“Grand Coalition”?
PDIP
PANPPP
PKB
PKS
??
? ?SBY Mega flirting
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 5
PD
Golkar
Gerindra
Hanura
PDIP
PANPPP
PKB
PKS
??
?
SBY’s running mate
?
Three couples to compete
Market Economy
Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”
Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”
Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto
“Mega-Bowo”
Market Socialism Anti-neoliberal
Three couples to compete
Market EconomyPolitical Islam: yes
Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”
Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”
Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto
“Mega-Bowo”
Market SocialismPolitical Islam: yes
Anti-neoliberalPolitical Islam: yes
Possibly Two Rounds
Second Round
Votes Transfer
thanks.