Coal Trader Intl

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Volume 13 / Issue 213 / Thursday, October 31, 2013 www.twitter.com/PlattsCoal www.platts.com COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL [COAL ] INCORPORA TING INTERNATIONAL COAL REPORT Inside this issue  Taipower awards 750,000 mt sub-bituminous Panamax contracts 2  Kowepo seeks 1.4 million mt in five-year sub-bituminous coal tender 3  Panamax coal freight rates edge down on key Pacific routes 4  Asian met coal prices static as bids and offers keep distance 7  Macquarie forecasts gloomy coal price outlook in China 8 Platts Physical Thermal Coal Assessments, October 31  CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Chg Daily Prompt Prices CFR South China 5,500 NAR 78.75 0.55 483.72 3.48 FOB Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR 74.07 -0.02 455.00 0.00 FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 64.60 0.00 — Ash Differential (net value) * 0.56 FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 83.30 0.80 FOB Kalimantan 4,200 GAR 38.50 0.00 FOB Kalimantan 3,800 GAR 32.70 -0.20 CFR India West 4,200 GAR 52.60 0.00 CFR India West 3,800 GAR 48.55 0.00 CFR India East 4,200 GAR 51.25 0.00 CFR India East 3,800 GAR 46.05 0.00 CIF ARA 6,000 NAR 85.60 -1.30 FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 83.70 -0.90 FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR 64.60 0.00 *Per 1% Ash (air dried) Daily 90-Day Prices CIF ARA 6,000 NAR 84.75 -1.45 FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 84.50 -1.25 FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 84.05 0.45 FOB Kalimantan 5,900 GAR 66.60 0.00 FOB Kalimantan 5,000 GAR 54.00 0.25 FOB ARA Barge 6,000 NAR 87.25 -1.45 CFR India West 6,300 GAR 102.25 -0.50 CFR India West 5,900 GAR 80.95 -0.30 CFR India West 5,000 GAR 68.10 0.00 CFR India East 6,300 GAR 102.55 -0.50 CFR India East 5,900 GAR 79.40 -0.30 CFR India East 5,000 GAR 66.70 0.00 Weekly 90-day Prices (October 25) FOB Barge ARA ^ 6,000 NAR 90.16 4.91 FOB Colombia 6,000 NAR 76.00 8.35 FOB Bolivar 6,450 GAR 78.00 8.00 Poland Baltic 6,300 GAR 82.50 4.50 Russian Baltic 6,400 GAR 83.00 4.50 FOB Gladstone 6,500 GAR 87.25 4.00 FOB Qinhuangdao 6,200 GAR 93.75 2.50 Russia Pacific 6,300 GAR 88.50 1.50 CIF Japan 6,080 NAR 99.75 2.00 CIF Korea West 6,080 NAR 93.50 1.50 ^ Weekly average China Coal Index Physical Coal Benchmark Prices, October 31  CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Chg CCI 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 87.75 0.63 539.00* 4.00 CCI 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 78.50 0.20 482.19 1.33 *includes VAT at 17% Daily Coal Price Trends (Physical) ($/mt) 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 31-Oct 18-Oct 07-Oct 24-Sep 11-Sep 29-Aug 15-Aug 02-Aug Kalimantan Richards Bay Newcastle 6300 Newcastle 5500 CIF ARA  Perth, Manila —Cheaper vessel freight has started to pull prices lower in the CFR South China market, but their rate of descent is being slowed to some extent by rising prices for domestic thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port, said market sources Thursday. Transactions were heard in the China spot market Thursday for Australian 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Capesize cargoes for arrival in the next one to two months at around $78.50/ mt CFR South China, and down by around 50 cents since the start of the week. A Panamax cargo of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Australian thermal was also heard to trade at $78.75/mt CFR South China and was for December delivery, and, a Guangdong-based trader China seaborne thermal coal cargo prices slip on weaker freight (continued on page 9)  Londo n—European-deli vered CIF ARA physical thermal coal spot prices took another step back Thursday, losing more than $1 with trading sources citing a lack of liquidity, dispersing market tightness and the belief that South African cargoes were set to start flooding the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp market. Platts assessed the price of CIF ARA thermal coal basis 6,000 kcal/kg NAR and for delivery within the next 15-60 days at $85.60/mt, down $1.30 on-day. DES ARA spot prices have now lost $4.40/mt over five straight days, almost eradicating the $6.50/mt climb during its seven-day bull-run that peaked at $90/mt a week ago. One northwest European utility source noted that the CIF ARA spot prices fall over $1 as oversupply picture builds again (continued on page 10)

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Coal Trader Intl

Transcript of Coal Trader Intl

  • 5/22/2018 Coal Trader Intl

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    Volume 13 / Issue 213 / Thursday, October 31, 20www.twitter.com/PlattsCoal

    www.platts.com COAL TRADER INTERNATIONA

    [COA

    INCORPORATING INTERNATIONAL COAL REPO

    Inside this issue

    Taipower awards 750,000 mt sub-bituminous Panamax contracts Kowepo seeks 1.4 million mtin five-year sub-bituminous coal tender

    Panamax coal freight rates edge down on key Pacific routes Asian met coal prices static as bids and offers keep distance Macquarie forecasts gloomy coal price outlook in China

    Platts Physical Thermal Coal Assessments, October 31

    CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Ch

    Daily Prompt Prices

    CFR South China 5,500 NAR 78.75 0.55 483.72 3.4

    FOB Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR 74.07 -0.02 455.00 0.0

    FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 64.60 0.00

    Ash Differential (net value)* 0.56

    FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 83.30 0.80FOB Kalimantan 4,200 GAR 38.50 0.00

    FOB Kalimantan 3,800 GAR 32.70 -0.20

    CFR India West 4,200 GAR 52.60 0.00

    CFR India West 3,800 GAR 48.55 0.00

    CFR India East 4,200 GAR 51.25 0.00

    CFR India East 3,800 GAR 46.05 0.00

    CIF ARA 6,000 NAR 85.60 -1.30

    FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 83.70 -0.90

    FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR 64.60 0.00

    *Per 1% Ash (air dried)

    Daily 90-Day Prices

    CIF ARA 6,000 NAR 84.75 -1.45

    FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 84.50 -1.25

    FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 84.05 0.45

    FOB Kalimantan 5,900 GAR 66.60 0.00

    FOB Kalimantan 5,000 GAR 54.00 0.25FOB ARA Barge 6,000 NAR 87.25 -1.45

    CFR India West 6,300 GAR 102.25 -0.50

    CFR India West 5,900 GAR 80.95 -0.30

    CFR India West 5,000 GAR 68.10 0.00

    CFR India East 6,300 GAR 102.55 -0.50

    CFR India East 5,900 GAR 79.40 -0.30

    CFR India East 5,000 GAR 66.70 0.00

    Weekly 90-day Prices (October 25)

    FOB Barge ARA ^ 6,000 NAR 90.16 4.91

    FOB Colombia 6,000 NAR 76.00 8.35

    FOB Bolivar 6,450 GAR 78.00 8.00

    Poland Baltic 6,300 GAR 82.50 4.50

    Russian Baltic 6,400 GAR 83.00 4.50

    FOB Gladstone 6,500 GAR 87.25 4.00

    FOB Qinhuangdao 6,200 GAR 93.75 2.50

    Russia Pacific 6,300 GAR 88.50 1.50CIF Japan 6,080 NAR 99.75 2.00

    CIF Korea West 6,080 NAR 93.50 1.50

    ^ Weekly average

    China Coal Index Physical Coal Benchmark Prices, October 31

    CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Ch

    CCI 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 87.75 0.63 539.00*4.0

    CCI 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 78.50 0.20 482.19 1.3

    *includes VAT at 17%

    Daily Coal Price Trends (Physical)

    ($/mt)

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    90

    31-Oct18-Oct07-Oct24-Sep11-Sep29-Aug15-Aug02-Aug

    Kalimantan

    Richards Bay

    Newcastle 6300

    Newcastle 5500

    CIF ARA

    Perth, ManilaCheaper vessel freight has started to pull prices

    lower in the CFR South China market, but their rate of descent is

    being slowed to some extent by rising prices for domestic

    thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port, said market sources Thursday.

    Transactions were heard in the China spot market

    Thursday for Australian 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Capesize cargoes

    for arrival in the next one to two months at around $78.50/

    mt CFR South China, and down by around 50 cents since the

    start of the week.

    A Panamax cargo of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Australian thermal

    was also heard to trade at $78.75/mt CFR South China and

    was for December delivery, and, a Guangdong-based trader

    China seaborne thermal coal

    cargo prices slip on weaker freight

    (continued on page 9)

    LondonEuropean-delivered CIF ARA physical thermal coal

    spot prices took another step back Thursday, losing more than

    $1 with trading sources citing a lack of liquidity, dispersingmarket tightness and the belief that South African cargoes were

    set to start flooding the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp market.

    Platts assessed the price of CIF ARA thermal coal basis

    6,000 kcal/kg NAR and for delivery within the next 15-60

    days at $85.60/mt, down $1.30 on-day.

    DES ARA spot prices have now lost $4.40/mt over five

    straight days, almost eradicating the $6.50/mt climb during

    its seven-day bull-run that peaked at $90/mt a week ago.

    One northwest European utility source noted that the

    CIF ARA spot prices fall over $1

    as oversupply picture builds again

    (continued on page 10)

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    COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL

    2 Copyright 2013 McGraw Hill Financial

    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    Platts Forward Curve Coal, October 31

    Bid Ask Midpoint* Change*

    CIF ARA

    Nov 13 83.25 83.55 83.40 -2.40

    Dec 13 81.25 81.55 81.40 -2.55

    Q1 2014 80.60 80.90 80.75 -1.75

    Q2 2014 80.60 80.90 80.75 -0.95Q3 2014 82.35 82.65 82.50 -0.55

    Q4 2014 84.25 84.55 84.40 -0.15

    2014 81.95 82.25 82.10 -0.85

    2015 87.65 87.95 87.80 -0.35

    2016 91.65 91.95 91.80 -0.35

    FOB Richards Bay

    Nov 13 85.95 86.25 86.10 -0.70

    Dec 13 85.55 85.85 85.70 -1.05

    Q1 2014 84.15 84.45 84.30 -1.35

    Q2 2014 81.40 81.70 81.55 -0.80

    Q3 2014 80.75 81.05 80.90 -0.45

    Q4 2014 81.15 81.45 81.30 -0.55

    2014 81.85 82.15 82.00 -0.80

    2015 84.40 84.70 84.55 -0.40

    2016 87.30 87.60 87.45 -0.45

    FOB Newcastle

    Nov 13 84.15 84.65 84.40 -0.10

    Dec 13 84.75 85.25 85.00 -0.35

    Q1 2014 85.30 85.80 85.55 -0.20

    Q2 2014 83.40 83.90 83.65 -0.35

    Q3 2014 82.75 83.25 83.00 -0.25

    Q4 2014 83.35 83.85 83.60 -0.15

    2014 83.45 84.45 83.95 -0.25

    2015 85.20 86.20 85.70 -0.30

    2016 87.45 88.45 87.95 -0.35

    * fields are calculated

    Platts Forward Curve Coal

    Graph created using Platts Forward Curve Coal data.

    The forward curve in coal will provide nine assessments comprising two prompt

    months, four prompt quarters and three calendar years.

    PFCCoal is also available in computer-readable Platts Dispatch format. To see a

    sample and find information on how to subscribe go to www.risk.platts.com. For

    questions about subscribing, please contact [email protected]. For questions

    about the content of PFCCoal, please e-mail [email protected].

    ($/mt)

    80

    85

    90

    95

    201620152014Q4-14Q3-14Q2-14Q1-14Dec-13Nov-13

    FOB Richards BayFOB NewcastleCIF ARA

    Taipower awards 750,000 mt

    sub-bituminous Panamax contractsManilaState utility Taiwan Power has awarded ten

    75,000 mt Panamax contracts of Indonesian sub-bituminous

    coal for February-May 2014 delivery.

    In tender, TPC10302-GS, Taipower originally sought1.05 million mt sub-bituminous thermal coal via 14

    Panamax vessels. It received offers for 3.07 million mt or

    41 Panamax shipments.

    Taipower awarded four Panamax contracts to Energy

    Man, two each to Advance Trading and Vitol, and one each

    to Universe Marine and Right Link.

    The winning evaluated C&F prices were $91.99-$95/mt,

    basis 6,322 kcal/kg gross-as-received

    Taipower solicited offers for material with the following

    specifications: minimum calorific value of 5,000 kcal/kg gross

    as received, maximum 28% total moisture as received,

    maximum 15% ash air dried, maximum 1.1% sulfur air dried

    and minimum 28% volatile matter air dried.

    In a previous tender for sub-bituminous coal, TPC10301-

    GS, Taipower bought 12 Panamax spot shipments of

    Indonesian coal at evaluated C&F prices of $93.98-95.39/mt

    for December 2013-March 2014 delivery.

    Cecilia Quiambao

    Nearby CIF ARA swaps pulled

    $2 lower on-day to fresh lows

    LondonFront-end European-delivered CIF ARA thermalcoal derivatives fell around $2 on-day Thursday extending a

    five-day price drop, sources said.

    Platts assessed the front-month API2 November contract

    at $83.40/mt, down $2.40 on the day and the front-quarter

    Q1-14 at $80.75/mt, $1.75 lower from Wednesday.

    A producer source said that there is currently no support

    for the front-end of the CIF ARA curve, as the market is

    experiencing a price correction after nearby CIF ARA

    contracts rose to their highest levels since January last week.

    Since Friday, participants have been opting to take in

    profits and have switched to the sell-side after utilities were on

    the buy-side of the front of the curve in order to cover shorts.

    CIF ARA November prices have fallen $5.50 in a week andQ1-14 prices have dropped almost $6 in the same period,

    according to Platts data.

    The producer source said that as a result, time spreads

    have continued to contract, accentuating the differential

    between Q1-14 and Cal-14 from minus $0.45/mt Wednesday

    to minus $1.35/mt Thursday.

    This compares to the spread turning to positive values

    for the first time in recent record between October 21-28,

    before returning to contango once the bears took hold of

    the market again.

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    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    Platts Daily Metallurgical Coal Assessments, October 31

    Asia-Pacific Coking Coal ($/mt)

    FOB CFR CFR Change Australia China India Australia China India

    HCC Peak Downs Region 147.25 162.25 164.25 0.00 0.00 -0.50

    Premium Low Vol 145.50 160.50 162.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50

    HCC 64 Mid Vol 130.00 145.00 147.00 0.00 0.00 -0.50

    Low Vol PCI 113.50 128.50 130.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50

    Low Vol 12 Ash PCI 105.00 120.00 122.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.50

    Semi Soft 96.50 111.50 113.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50

    Met Coke - - 272.00 - - 0.00

    North China Prompt Port Stock Prices

    Ex-stock Jingtang CFR Jingtang (Yuan/mt, incl VAT) equivalent ($/mt)**

    Premium Low Vol* 1140.00 153.97

    HCC 64 Mid Vol* 1060.00 142.82

    *weekly (assessed October 25), 20-day delivery from date.**ex-stock price, net of VAT and port charges.

    Atlantic Coking Coal ($/mt)

    FOB US East Coast Change VM Ash S

    Low Vol HCC 134.500 0.000 19% 8% 0.80%

    High Vol A 127.500 0.000 32% 7% 0.85%

    High Vol B 119.000 0.000 34% 8% 0.95%

    Detailed methodology and specifications are found here: http://platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/metcoalmethod.pdf

    HCC Assessed Specifications

    CSR VM Ash S P TM Fluidi

    Premium Low Vol 71% 21.5% 9.3% 0.50% 0.045% 9.7% 500

    HCC Peak Downs Region 74% 20.7% 10.5% 0.60% 0.030% 9.5% 400

    HCC 64 Mid Vol 64% 25.5% 9.0% 0.60% 0.050% 9.5% 1,700

    Penalties & Premia: Differentials ($/mt)

    Within % of Premium Low Vol FOB Net Va Min-Max Australia assessment price ($/m

    Per 1% CSR 60-71% 0.50% 0.73

    Per 1% VM (air dried) 18-27% 0.50% 0.73

    Per 1% TM (as received) 8-11% 1.00% 1.46

    Per 1% Ash (air dried) 7-10.5% 1.25% 1.82Per 0.1%S (air dried) 0.3-1% 1.00% 1.46

    The assessed price of HCC Peak Downs originates with Platts and is based on priceinformation for a range of HCCs with a CSR> 67% normalized to the standard of HCCPeak Downs (CSR 74%). Peak Downs is a registered trade mark of BM Alliance CoaOperations Pty Limited BMA. This price assessment is not affiliated with or sponsoreby BMA in any way.

    Back-end CIF ARA swaps fell by less than a dollar, with

    sources noting that they were being pulled down by the

    front-end of the curve rather than following any other

    factors.

    Platts assessed the API2 Cal-14 contract at $82.10/mt, 85

    cents down from Wednesday, $2.70 down on-week and at

    over two-week lows.German baseload power Cal-14 contracts shed 10 euro

    cents to 37.55/MWh, and December 2014 EUA carbon

    allowances fell 17 euro cents to 4.96/mt.

    The South African Richards Bay FOB market moved lower

    Thursday alongside European coal derivatives, with the

    implied freight differential falling slightly on the day.

    The negative front-quarter Q1-14 implied freight

    differential widened 40 cents to minus $3.55/mt, while the

    Cal-14 shed 5 cents to $0.10/mt.

    Platts assessed the API4 Q1-14 contract at $84.30/mt, $1.35/

    mt lower on-day, and the Cal-14 at $82/mt, down 80 cents.

    The Q1-14 swaps contract fell $6.25 on the week, and the

    Cal-14 shed $3.20 during the same period.

    Jaime Concha

    Kowepo seeks 1.4 million mt in

    five-year sub-bituminous coal tenderManilaKorea Western Power (Kowepo) has called for

    bids for a combined 1.4 million mt of sub-bituminous coal

    over a five-year contract for April 1, 2014 March 31, 2019

    delivery to its Taean power station.

    The utility, in tender Kowepo-Coal-2013-LT-05, is seeking280,000 mt of coal annually, from a single mine, with a

    calorific value of 4,600 kcal/kg net-as-received, maximum

    total moisture of 28% as received, maximum ash of 17% air

    dried, minimum volatile matter of 20% air dried and

    maximum sulfur of 1% as received.

    No Russian coal offers will be considered in the tender

    and bids close November 7.

    Cecilia Quiambao

    Combined coal stocks at six key Chinese

    power generators steady on weekHunan, ChinaCombined coal stocks held by six major

    power generation companies in eastern and southern China

    averaged 12.364 million mt in the week ended October 29,

    similar to 12.365 million mt a week ago, Qinhuangdao Port

    said in a weekly report Thursday.

    The stocks held by Zhejiang Power, Shanghai Power,

    Guangdong Power (Yudean), Guodian, Datang and Huaneng

    will be able to meet an average 20 days of consumption, up

    0.25 days week on week, the report said.

    Dry Bulk Freight Assessments, October 31

    Vessel Class Freight Rate ($/mt) Chang

    Daily

    Richards Bay-India West Panamax 17.00 -0.50

    Kalimantan-India West Panamax 12.30 -0.30

    Richards Bay-India East Panamax 17.50 -0.50

    Kalimantan-India East Panamax 10.90 -0.30

    Australia-China Capesize 11.50 -0.50

    Australia-China Panamax 15.00 0.00Australia-India Panamax 17.00 -0.50

    USEC-China Panamax 42.00 0.00

    USEC-India Panamax 39.00 0.00

    USEC-Rotterdam Panamax 14.75 -0.25

    USEC-Brazil Panamax 15.25 0.00

    Weekly

    Richards Bay to ARA* Capesize 11.35 0.00

    Virtual Capesize 1.90 -0.40

    Differential Capesize 9.45 0.40

    * Fridays weekly freight rate courtesy of SSY; East Australia: basis Hay Pointport. USEC: basis Hampton Roads. See methodology for further details.

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    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    Metallurgical Coke 62% CSR

    $/mt Change % Chg

    CFR India 272.00 0.00 +0.00

    FOB North China (weekly) 255.00 2.00 +0.79

    Yuan/mt

    DDP North China (weekly) 1490.00 5.00 +0.34

    Platts Daily Assessments for US Thermal Coal Exports, Oct 30

    ($/mt) Change

    FOB US East Coast (6,500 NAR, 1% sulfur) 81.25 -0.25

    FOB USGC Eastern Coal (6,000 NAR, 3% sulfur) 57.00 0.00

    FOB USGC Western Coal (5,000 GAR, 0.5% sulfur) 41.50 0.50

    FOB Canada/USWC (5,000 GAR, 0.5% sulfur) 56.50 0.00

    *14-45 day basis, see methodology for further details.

    The six utilities consumed a combined 4.333 million mt

    of coal, averaging 619,000 mt/d, in the week to October 29,

    down 1.2% week on week.

    Zhejiang Power, Shanghai Power and Guangdong Power

    are regional electricity companies while the other three are

    national power generation companies.

    Reggie Le

    Panamax coal freight rates edge

    down on key Pacific routesSingaporePanamax coal freight rates on established routes

    from South Africas Richards Bay and Indonesia to India

    continued to trend down this week, falling 20-50 cents

    Thursday, on lower-priced fixtures and weak market sentiment.

    Platts assessed the Panamax coal freight rate from

    Richards Bay to Indias east coast at $17.50/mt and to the

    west coast at $17/mt Thursday, each down 50 cents from

    Wednesday.

    A fixture was heard concluded Wednesday at $16.85/mt

    for shipment of 75,000 mt plus or minus 10% of coal from

    Richards Bay to Dahej in Gujarat on Indias west coast for a

    November 5-19 laycan, market sources said, although this

    could not be confirmed.

    The market is still heading south, a Singapore-based

    shipbroker said.

    We do not expect big drops, but we dont see any reason

    for a pick-up either, the broker added.

    Owners rates for Panamax vessels along the Richards

    Bay to India route averaged $18/mt while charterers wereseeking $15.50-16/mt, sources said. A Singapore-based

    trader reckoned offers at $17-18/mt were unlikely to attract

    charterers.

    Panamax coal freight rates also trended down on the

    Indonesia to India routes Wednesday on the back of excess

    tonnage in the market. Platts assessed Panamax coal freight

    rates from South Kalimantan to Indias east coast at $10.80/

    mt, down 40 cents from Wednesday, and to the west coast at

    $12.40/mt, down 20 cents from the previous day.

    A fixture was heard concluded at $10.50/mt for shipment of

    70,000 mt plus or minus 10% of coal from South Kalimantan to

    Ennore in Tamil Nadu on east coast India, sources said.

    Downward trend expected to continueMarket sources expected Panamax freight rates to

    continue trending down.

    Panamax rates are continuing to head south, an India-

    based broker said.

    The demand that was driven by higher Cape freight

    rates has eased off, he added and expected the downtrend

    to continue.

    Market participants also spoke of a fixture heard

    concluded at $11.50/mt for a Capesize vessel from Richards

    Dark Spreads, October 31

    ($/MWh) Change (Eur/MWh) Change

    German Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)

    Month-Ahead 20.14 0.34 14.63 0.25

    Month-Ahead +1 19.71 0.96 14.31 0.69

    Quarter-Ahead 23.89 0.36 17.35 0.26

    Quarter-Ahead +1 14.05 0.11 10.20 0.08

    Year-Ahead 18.67 0.21 13.56 0.15

    Year-Ahead + 1 15.41 0.00 11.19 0.00

    Year-Ahead + 2 13.46 0.14 9.77 0.10

    German Clean Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)

    Month-Ahead 13.78 0.54 10.01 0.40

    Month-Ahead +1 13.35 1.16 9.69 0.84

    Quarter-Ahead 17.53 0.55 12.73 0.40

    Quarter-Ahead +1 7.69 0.31 5.58 0.22

    Year-Ahead 12.10 0.40 8.79 0.30

    Year-Ahead + 1 8.56 0.20 6.22 0.15

    Year-Ahead + 2 6.61 0.34 4.80 0.25

    UK Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)

    Month-Ahead 53.68 -0.16 38.99 -0.11

    Month-Ahead +1 56.88 -0.20 41.31 -0.14

    Quarter-Ahead 55.87 -0.24 40.58 -0.17

    Quarter-Ahead +1 48.33 0.24 35.10 0.18

    Season-Ahead 46.36 0.23 33.67 0.17

    UK Clean Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)

    Month-Ahead 47.33 0.04 34.37 0.03

    Month-Ahead +1 50.53 0.01 36.69 0.00

    Quarter-Ahead 49.52 -0.04 35.96 -0.03

    Quarter-Ahead +1 41.97 0.44 30.48 0.32

    Season-Ahead 39.79 0.43 28.90 0.31

    UK Dark Spread (35% efficiency)*

    ($/MWh) Change (GBP/MWh) Change

    Dark Spread 50.54 -0.60 31.44 -0.42

    Clean Spread 44.44 -0.41 27.64 -0.30

    * Uses CIF ARA 15-60 day forward basis physical price

    Heat Rate (Minimum efficiency to pay fuel cost)

    (Btu/kWh) (%)

    Gas, UK 8042 42.45%

    Gas, Germany 5115 66.75%

    Carbon-Adjusted

    ($/mt) Change

    CIF ARA 100.12 -1.75

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    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    1746-8914

    Editor-in-Chief

    James OConnell: +65-6530-6476, James.

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    Volume 13 / Issue 213 / October 31, 2013

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    COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL

    Recent heards in the thermal coal market

    Date Grade of coal Details

    31-Oct-13 FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR December cargoes for 130,000 mt heard bid at $65/mt via broker Marex Spectron

    31-Oct-13 CFR E China 5,500 NAR Late November/early December Australian origin cargo for 130,000 mt heard bid at $78.50/mt, via Marex Spectro

    31-Oct-13 CFR S China 5,500 NAR Australian origin December cargo for 70,000 mt heard to trade at $78.75/mt, said Chinese traders

    31-Oct-13 CFR S China 5,500 NAR Australian origin late December/early January cargoes for 130,000 mt heard bid at $77.75-78.25/mt to

    offers at $78.75-79/mt, via Marex Spectron31-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 5,000 GAR November/December cargo for 70,000 mt heard offered at $55.50/mt, said Indonesian coal producer

    31-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 4,200 GAR Spot cargo for 50,000 mt heard offered at $39/mt, said Singapore-based trader

    30-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 4,700 NAR Two Panamax shipments of Indonesian coal reportedly sold to Chinese buyers at $55.50/mt for November-

    and December-loading: producer

    30-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 3,700 NAR Two Panamax cargoes of branded coal reportedly sold to China at about $39.50/mt for November- and

    December-loading: producer

    30-Oct-13 CFR Mid-China December-arrival, 130,000-140,000 mt of Australian 5,500 NAR coal with maximum ash of 19% and

    maximum sulfur of 0.75% offered at $86.50/mt: Marex Spectron

    30-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 4,200 GAR Supramax cargo offered at $40/mt FOB for November-loading from Central Kalimantan: trader

    30-Oct-13 FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 130,000 mt cargo offered at $65.10/mt for December first-half loading vs bids at $64.50/mt: Marex Spectro

    30-Oct-13 FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 110,000-130,000 mt cargo bid at $65/mt for December second-half loading: Marex Spectron

    29-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 5,200 NAR Panamax cargo with maximum 1.8% sulfur reportedly sold to Chinese buyer at $61.75/mt for December-

    loading from East Kalimantan: trader

    29-Oct-13 FOB Kalimantan 3,800 NAR Supramax cargo offered at about $38.75/mt for November loading: trader

    29-Oct-13 CFR S China 5,500 NAR Australian origin spot-delivery cargo for 130,000 mt heard bid at $78.50/mt, via globalCOAL

    Recent Coal Trade Transactions

    Following is a table of recent international steam coal trade transactions. Date noted is the date of reported trade. Quantity in metric tons.

    Prices in US $/mt, unless stated otherwise.

    Date Buyer Supplier Tonnage Price (mt) Details

    Steam coal

    31-Oct-13 NW Europe utility-trader Trader 50,000 mt $84.75/mt DES AR (EFP) Multi-origin coal, December

    30-Oct-13 Unknown Unknown 25,000 mt $84.75/mt FOB (EFP) Australian coal, January

    30-Oct-13 NW Europe utility-trader Trader 50,000 mt $86.75/mt DES AR (EFP) Multi-origin coal, December

    29-Oct-13 NW Europe utility-trader NW Europe utility-trader 50,000 mt $87/mt DES AR (EFP) Multi-origin coal, December

    28-Oct-13 Trader Trader 50,000 mt $87.50/mt FOB South African coal, December28-Oct-13 NW Europe utility-trader Trader 50,000 mt $86.50/mt DES AR (EFP) Multi-origin coal, January

    28-Oct-13 NW Europe utility-trader Trader 50,000 mt $88/mt DES AR (EFP) Multi-origin coal, December

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    Bay to Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh on Indias east

    coast, though this could not be confirmed.

    Shipbroker Fearnleys said in a weekly report Wednesday

    that there appeared to be no light at the end of the tunnel

    for shell-shocked owners of Capesize vessels.

    Anitha Krishnan

    Qinhuangdao ports coastal coal

    freight rates rise for fourth weekHunan, ChinaFreight rates to ship coal from northern

    Chinas Qinhuangdao port to the other Chinese ports of

    Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose in the week

    ended October 29 for the fourth week in a row, Qinhuangdao

    Port said Wednesday.

    The freight rates from Qinhuangdao to Zhangjiagang for

    20,000-30,000 mt capacity vessels averaged Yuan 63.0/mt

    ($10.3/mt) in the week ended October 29, up Yuan 2.80

    week-on-week, the report said.

    The Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route for vessels with a

    capacity of 40,000-50,000 mt edged up Yuan 0.70 over the

    same period to an average of Yuan 58.60/mt, while the

    freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou on 50,000-

    60,000 mt vessels rose Yuan 1.50 to Yuan 66/mt.

    Meanwhile, coal stocks at Qinhuangdao port stood at

    5.37 million mt October 30, down from 5.73 million mt a

    week earlier, port figures showed. This compares with 6

    million mt on October 16, 6.26 million mt on October 9 and

    6.15 million mt on October 2.

    Reggie Le

    Glencore Xstratas total Q3 coal

    production up 8.5% to 37.1 million mtLondonGlencore Xstratas total coal output in the third

    quarter of the year rose 8.5% to 37.1 million mt, the miner

    said in its quarterly production report Thursday.

    Total coal production in the nine months to the end of

    September rose 6% on-year to 104.6 million mt, which the

    miner attributed to its Australian and Colombian Prodeco

    operations offsetting a month-long strike at its ColombianCerrejon mine during Q1.

    Australian Q3 thermal coal production was 15 million mt,

    of which 13.7 million mt was export material, a 16% rise

    from the same quarter in 2012, and 1.3 million mt was

    domestic material, a 19% drop year on year.

    Meanwhile, Australian coking coal production in the

    third quarter fell 6% to 1.6 million mt, due to certain

    decisions to counter the current low coal price

    environment, the company said.

    It said these included reducing output from Oaky North,

    closing down the Collinsville mine in September, and

    moving away from higher cost coking production at

    Newlands to higher margin thermal coal areas.

    Australian semi-soft coal production shed 17% year on

    year to 1 million mt in Q3 2013.

    The average realized export price for Australian coking

    coal in the nine months to the end of September fell 32%to $147/mt, while its average thermal coal price fell 20%

    year on year to $84/mt and its semi-soft export price she

    30% to $115/mt.

    The average Australian thermal coal domestic price,

    however, gained 12% to $48/mt in the nine-month period

    Prodeco Q3 thermal coal output at 4.7 million mtThe miners wholly-owned Colombian thermal coal

    operation, Prodeco, produced 4.7 million mt in Q3 2013, a

    51.6% rise from the previous year.

    Output at its other Colombian thermal coal mine,

    Cerrejon, in which it has a 33.3% stake, rose 14% year on

    year to 3.2 million mt.

    In the nine months to September, Prodeco produced 14

    million mt, 29% up from 2012, while Cerrejons output wa

    13% lower year on year at 7.7 million mt.

    This difference was attributed to Prodecos expanded

    production output to 20 million mt/year and its Puerto

    Nuevo deepwater direct loading port which started

    operations in April.

    Cerrejon, on the other hand, suffered a 32-day industria

    action between February and March, which hindered its

    production at the beginning of the year.

    Prodecos average export price in the nine months to

    September shed 3% on the year to $84/mt, while Cerrejonaverage realized export price dropped 19% to $73/mt.

    Glencore Xstratas South African thermal coal productio

    in Q3 was 11.6 million mt, of which 5.3 million mt was

    destined for the export market and the rest to the domestic

    market, both losing 2% on the year.

    Glencore Xstrata attributed the reduction to a scaling

    back of production at its Tweefontein and Impunzi mines,

    which the miner attributed to a weak coal price environme

    and geological issues affecting Koornfontein (Optimum).

    The companys South African average thermal coal expo

    price dropped 22% year on year in the nine months to

    September to $78/mt and its average domestic price fell 10

    to $26/mt in the same period. Jaime Conc

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    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    Indias Ennore port invites bids

    to build new coal handling facilityNew DelhiIndias government-owned Ennore Port

    Limited (EPL) has floated a tender to build a new captive coal

    berth for state-run power utility Tamil Nadu Generation and

    Distribution Corporation Ltd (TANGEDCO) at the port onthe countrys East Coast.

    The ports board had recently approved the proposal to

    build a new coal berth with a 4 million-6 million mt/year

    capacity, which would cost around Rupee 2.04 billion

    ($33.17 million), a source said.

    Ennore port currently has two coal berths which handle

    around 12 million mt/year of coal.

    The port wants the third berth to meet the increasing

    imported coal requirements of TANGEDCO, which is

    expanding, the source said.

    Ennore port handled 10.4 million mt of thermal coal

    during April-September 2013, compared with the 6.3 million

    mt handled in the same period in 2012, according to the

    latest data by the Indian ports association.

    The contract period for building the new coal berth is 24

    months from the date the work is awarded, according to the

    tender document.

    The last date for bid submission is November 26.

    Sapna Dogra

    Asian met coal prices static

    as bids and offers keep distanceSingaporeSpot coking coal prices in Asia saw little

    movement Thursday with bids and offers poised around

    previously assessed levels.

    Platts assessed premium low-vol coking coal unmoved at

    $160.50/mt CFR China, and second-tier HCC also steady at

    $145/mt CFR China.

    Offers for a variety of coals were heard mostly in line with

    previous levels but liquidity remained thin as buyers held off

    in the hope of further price declines.

    There were a number of unconfirmed low offers for

    several categories of coal, but it was not immediately clear

    how repeatable these were.

    For premium low-vol HCC, two offers could be seen fromtraders for mid- or late-November in the low $160s CFR

    China. Indicative buy-side interest, meanwhile, was observed

    in the high $150s CFR.

    If you really want to sell, you might have to drop your

    offers by $5/mt. If people are scared they just bid much

    lower, a Singapore trader said.

    People are so negative, its very, very quiet, a Beijing

    trader said.

    Stock levels in ports and in the domestic market have

    increased, a miner said, adding that this had comforted

    buyers, prompting them to drop their bids.

    Buyers were not fully passive, however, and one mill

    source admitted to being on the lookout for bargains.

    Julien Hall, Edwin

    Coal of Africa Q1 July-Sep ROMproduction up 7% at 202,910 mt

    LondonCoal of Africa Limited (CoAL) produced 202,910

    of run-of-mine (ROM) coal in the July-September period, risin

    7.4% on-quarter, the South African junior miner said Thursda

    The company did not provide year on year comparati

    figures.

    The quarterly rise came primarily from the Vele coking

    and thermal coal colliery in the Limpopo coalfield, where

    127,764 mt of ROM coal was produced in the first quarter

    the July 2013-June 2014 financial year, climbing from the

    9,318 mt produced during the previous quarter when

    operations had been halted due to a train derailment.

    Vele processed 136,864 mt of ROM during the three-

    month period, producing 32,399 mt of export quality

    thermal coal, up from just 89 mt in the April-June quarter.

    CoAL said it had also completed production of semi-sof

    coking coal for metallurgical coal trials and sent more than

    300 mt of material to ArcelorMittal South Africa for testing

    their coke batteries.

    The miner previously announced in early June that it h

    stopped production at its 6,000 mt/day Mooiplaats therma

    coal mine and put it under a care and maintenance program

    after struggling to turn a profit on its operations for the patwo financial years.

    It is aiming to sell its Mooiplaats, Woestalleen,

    Opgoedenhoop and Holfontein assets to reposition itself a

    coking coal producer.

    The company has made significant progress in the

    execution of its enhanced turnaround strategy which wil

    allow it to concentrate on the next phase of the process.

    This entails the construction of the modified plant at Ve

    and the move to full production, CoAL executive

    chairman David Brown said.

    Plunge in export sales

    CoAL noted that export coal sales from MozambiqueMatola Terminal plunged 58.3% from the previous quarte

    to 56,799 mt due to the complete consumption of ROM

    export quality coal stockpiles at the Woestalleen complex

    during the previous three-month period and decreased

    production from Mooiplaats.

    The miner pointed out that standard Richards Bay expo

    quality thermal coal FOB prices had continued to be weigh

    down during the quarter, falling to $73/mt at the end of th

    September from $77/mt at the end of the June.

    However, it said that this was partially offset by the

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    weakening South African rand against the dollar.

    Sales of middlings coal to state-owned utility Eskom fell

    30% from the June quarter to 141,798 mt due to halted

    production at Mooiplaats.

    CoAL said it had continued to reprocess discard dumps at

    Woestalleens site during July-September producing 99,257

    mt of coal for sale to the utility, up 23.3% from 80,498 mt inthe previous quarter.

    Mooiplaats also produced 61,057 mt of middlings coal for

    Eskom during the period, down from 134,020 mt in the

    April-June quarter.

    Jacqueline Holman

    Australias Cockatoo Jul-Sep coal

    production down 14.6% to 198,897 mtLondonAustralian miner Cockatoo Coal said Thursday

    its run of mine (ROM) output from July-September, its fiscal

    first quarter, fell 14.6% year on year to 198,897 mt.

    Its Baralaba mine, in Queenslands Bowen Basin, shipped

    135,063 mt of coal in the period, down 10.9% year on year,

    which Cockatoo attributed to delays in September at RG

    Tanna port part of the Port of Gladstone.

    Cockatoo said it had already reversed that fall by selling

    163,971 mt in October.

    In the September quarter, its total shipments were equivalent

    to 59,755 mt of PCI coal and 75,308 mt of thermal coal.

    The miners production cash cost for the quarter was

    $90.43/mt FOBT Gladstone, including royalties.

    Cockatoo said that during its first quarter the QueenslandMinister for State Development, Infrastructure and Planning

    declared its Baralaba expansion project as a prescribed project

    which, it said, enables the Queensland Coordinator-General

    to intervene in approvals processes for the construction,

    maintenance and operation of a project to ensure timely

    decision making.

    The project involves expanding its mine to the north of

    its current tenement, with plans to increase annual

    production to 3.5 million mt from 750,000 mt.

    The miner said earlier it expected to produce first coal

    from the project by mid-2014.

    Cockatoo produced 707,381 mt of ROM coal at Baralaba

    in its 2012/13 year to June 30, up 17.9%. Jaime Concha

    Macquarie forecasts gloomy

    coal price outlook in ChinaManilaMacquarie Bank has said the outlook for a coal

    price recovery in China remains bleak as more supply is

    expected to flood the market and domestic production costs

    are minimized.

    Indeed the outlook for coal, both met and thermal, wa

    viewed as quite bleak, with cost structures falling and more

    supply expected to hit the market, the bank said in an

    October 30 report.

    A Chinese coal transport and distribution group executi

    said the recent drop in Chinese coal prices has alreadystopped but a meaningful recovery is not expected to

    happen in the near term, Macquarie reported.

    This executive said there is a potential for average coal

    prices to fall again next year because any domestic price ga

    will be offset by more imports and a return of Chinese coa

    mine supply that has shut down this year, the bank reporte

    He also estimated Chinas total coal production capacity

    at 5.4 billion mt by 2017, including a 400 million mt/year

    increase from coal mines in Shanxi province of which on

    third will be metallurgical coal.

    However, Macquarie analyst Matty Zhao estimated the

    Chinese domestic supply growth at 80 million mt/year.

    Zhao said around 12% of Chinese coal output is produc

    at a loss at current price levels despite a reduction in fees a

    levies for Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

    Drop in marginal production costs

    These fee reductions and a decline in trucking costs hav

    taken marginal production costs down to Yuan 580/mt

    ($95.18/mt) from Yuan 650/mt.

    Trucking costs have fallen to Yuan 0.30/mt/km from

    Yuan 0.40/mt/km, narrowing the cost disparity between ra

    (Yuan 0.20/t/km) and trucking ahead of the alleviation of r

    capacity bottlenecks in 2015.

    Macquarie said Chinese coal market information providFenwei attributed the recent gains in the domestic thermal

    coal price to Yuan 530/mt from Yuan 520/mt to an increas

    in demand due to improved power generation and a cut in

    supply from Shanxi where some mines temporarily stoppe

    production to upgrade operations.

    Platts and Fenwei have formed a commercial partnershi

    and this month launched their first joint products: a FOB

    Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal price

    assessment and CFR Guangzhou 5,500Kcal/kg NAR therma

    coal price assessment.

    Macquarie said Fenwei forecast an uptick in thermal coa

    prices to Yuan 550/mt in the near term but a further

    potential downside next year.Fenwei said the output of state-owned coal enterprises,

    comprising 65% of total output, is still rising even though

    their production costs are Yuan 50-100/mt higher compare

    with private coal miners. Macquarie reported.

    Fenwei also said about 20 million mt of supply from th

    Ordos region has been semi-permanently taken out of the

    market due to losses, the bank said.

    It also said Fenwei forecast that most private coal mine

    will become unprofitable if prices fall to Yuan 420/mt.

    Fenwei forecast a peak in thermal coal demand in 2020

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    2025, with 3-4% per annum growth, it added.

    By this time, lignite will have the fastest supply growth

    and imports will be roughly flat, according to Fenwei as

    reported by Macquarie.

    Fenwei said the cost of production at state-owned coal

    enterprises is declining, adding that a 600 mt/year railway

    capacity due to be delivered over 2014-2015 will reducemarginal costs by Yuan 40/mt.

    Cecilia Quiambao

    Senators urge Obama administration

    to limit rules on coal exportsWashingtonSix US senators Wednesday pressed the Obama

    administration to limit the impact that looming changes to

    federal environmental review rules may have on coal exports.

    In a letter sent to Jo-Ellen Darcy, assistant secretary of the

    Army for Civil Works, and Nancy Sutley, chairman of the

    Council of Environmental Quality, the senators urged the

    administration to limit the expansion of National

    Environmental Policy Act reviews, which they claim could

    hurt US coal exports.

    The letter was signed by Republicans David Vitter of

    Louisiana, John Barrasso of Wyoming, Jeff Sessions of

    Alabama and James Inhofe of Oklahoma and Democrats Joe

    Manchin of Wyoming and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.

    The senators are concerned that the White House could

    finalize new guidance on NEPA reviews in a way which

    would force regulators to broadly review the impact of

    climate change and greenhouse gas emissions in foreignmarkets where coal may be shipped.

    Such a review effectively places a climate change litmus

    test on exports and requires a type of analysis that is not

    practicable, but is certain to lead to a slippery slope that

    undermines jobs, American businesses and exacerbates our

    trade deficit, the senators wrote.

    Cumulative concerns like greenhouse gas emissions that

    may occur in countries across the Pacific Ocean are not

    closely related to the projects you are being asked to

    consider.

    In June, Jennifer Moyer, the acting chief of the Army Corps

    of Engineers regulatory program, said regulators would

    conduct a separate environmental review for each of threeproposed coal-export projects in the Pacific Northwest, rather

    than a broad, single review of the impact of all three projects.

    Opponents of these export projects had pushed for an

    area-wide, or regional, environmental impact statement for

    the three coal export projects, which would have likely made

    approval more difficult.

    The senators wrote that while they applauded Moyers

    commitment, it was unclear if the administration would

    require broad reviews in its pending NEPA guidance.

    Brian Scheid

    noted that this price was nearly mid-way between bids of

    $78/mt CFR basis and offers at $79/mt.

    Bids on Australian high-ash cargoes of 5,500 kcal/kg NA

    thermal coal were at $78/mt basis South China for deliveryin late November and early December, though offers were

    scarce at the time, as heard through Marex Spectron.

    Some interest was also heard through the broker for

    Australian Capesize cargoes for shipment to a port in easte

    China at $78.25/mt in late November and early December.

    For late December and early January there was a bid on

    an Australian cargo at $77.75-78.25/mt CFR basis to selling

    interest at $78.75-79/mt.

    Chinese market sources pointed to lower prices for

    Capesize vessel fixtures as a pivotal factor.

    The shipping market appears to be collapsing, said a

    trader based in Beijing.

    A fixture was heard in the market at $12.50/mt for a

    Capesize ship to sail from Australias Newcastle port in the

    middle of November to an unnamed destination port in

    China, and the charterer was a Chinese trading company.

    Some market sources in China quoted even lower rates

    Capesize ships on the eastern Australia to South China trad

    route, in some cases as low as slightly under $12/mt. Only

    one month ago prices were around $20/mt.

    Declining availability

    Along with cheaper freight, declining availability is a fact

    that has been supportive of FOB prices particular in Australia

    All November cargos have been booked. Only someDecember cargoes are available, said a Beijing-based trader

    Offers for Capesize cargoes of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR

    Australian coal were heard around $65/mt FOB for Decemb

    delivery, while bids were $2 lower at $63/mt FOB, accordin

    to the Beijing-based trader.

    The trader believed that $64-64.50/mt FOB was a

    tradable price for December cargoes of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR

    Australian coal.

    However, according to a Singapore-based broker, Chine

    bids for 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Australian thermal coal were sti

    muted and as low as $63/mt FOB.

    November-loading cargoes of maximum 23% ash

    Newcastle thermal coal were heard bid around $64/mt FOBbasis, and for December cargoes buying interest was heard

    $65/mt, according to broker Marex Spectron.

    At Qinhuangdao port, prices for domestic thermal coal

    prompt delivery have continued to rise.

    Chinese producer Shenhua was heard offering 5,500 kca

    kg NAR domestic coal at Yuan 537/mt for immediate deliv

    and up Yuan 4 on-week, and utilities could secure a Yuan 1

    mt discount to this offer price.

    Mainstream buying interest was heard in the

    Qinhuangdao domestic thermal coal market at Yuan 530/m

    China seaborne thermal coal cargoprices slip on weaker freight ...from page 1

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    to offers at Yuan 545-550/mt inclusive of VAT at 17%.

    A transaction was reported at Yuan 542/mt FOB

    Qinhuangdao port including VAT for Inner Mongolian

    specification thermal coal basis 5,500 kcal/kg NAR sold by

    Shenhua.

    At the close of Asia trade, the Platts/Fenwei China Coal

    Index (CCI 1) for domestic thermal coal traded atQinhuangdao port was assessed at Yuan 539/mt inclusive of

    VAT, Yuan 4 higher on day.

    The CFR South China (CCI 8) price was assessed Thursday

    at $78.50/mt basis 5,500 kcal/kg NAR excluding Chinese VAT,

    and the joint assessment was 20 cents higher from Wednesday.

    Platts price assessment for CFR South China cargoes of

    5,500 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal for arrival in South China

    ports in the next 15-60 day period came out at $78.75/mt

    Thursday, 55 cents higher on day.

    Typical 20% ash Newcastle 5,500 kcal/kg NAR thermal

    coal for loading in the next 7-45 day period was assessed at

    $64.60/mt FOB, steady from Wednesday.

    Indonesian cargoes garner higher Chinese interestMarket sources said recovering Chinese domestic thermal

    coal prices were pushing buyers to look for alternative

    imported cargoes, while Indian buyers were subdued because

    of the Diwali festivities, said traders.

    China is slightly active and we are getting inquiries.

    Domestic prices are recovering so people are keen to buy,

    said a trader based in Singapore.

    An Indonesian producer said he had heard of a

    Kalimantan cargo with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal/kg

    gross-as-received basis being traded this week at $55.50/mt

    FOB for November-December delivery to China, althoughPlatts was unable to immediately confirm this.

    A Panamax cargo of 5,000 kcal/kg GAR east Kalimantan

    thermal coal was heard being offered at $63.50/mt CFR South

    China for late November or December delivery, according to

    a Tianjin-based trader.

    Some of our utility customers are more active in purchasing,

    but their purchase prices have remained muted for 4,700 kcal/kg

    NAR Indonesian thermal coal, a Beijing-based trader said.

    For November-December delivery 4,700 kcal/kg NAR

    Indonesian thermal coal, Chinese utilities purchasing prices

    have been no higher than Yuan 465/mt, or Yuan 397/mt

    without VAT on a CFR basis.

    A Fujian-based trader agreed and noted that he needed tokeep imported prices for 4,700 kcal/kg NAR Indonesian coal

    below $64/mt CFR in order to make a profit.

    4,700 NAR Panamaxes offered at $64.50-65.50/mt CFRPanamax cargoes of 4,700 kcal/kg NAR Indonesian

    thermal coal were currently offered in the Chinese market at

    $56-57/mt FOB, or some $64.50-65.50/mt CFR for November

    and December delivery, market sources said.

    Major Indonesian thermal coal miners were heard to offer

    their 4,700 kcal/kg NAR material at slightly higher prices

    DES ARA market had previously been pricing in potential

    port issues at US producer Drummonds Colombian

    operations concerning the January 1 deadline for convertinits coal export terminal to direct loading operations.

    However, he said that it seemed that Drummond would

    get an extension, which had calmed any fears in the marke

    that supply would be affected.

    The utility source added that gas storage in Europe was

    also pretty full, meaning that there was less tension out o

    the gas market, subduing gas and also coal prices.

    There is no real reason for the market to be tight, he

    commented.

    A Switzerland-based trader agreed, commenting that th

    market had been overpriced and was now correcting low

    to a more reasonable value. It moved up too much the

    correction lower was to be expected, he said.The only fixed-price deal in the Atlantic market was a

    50,000 mt multi-origin December DES AR trade at $84.75/m

    via Atlantic Brokers. The deal had exchange of futures for

    physical (EFP) terms attached and was sold by a trader to a

    utility $2 below a similar transaction Wednesday.

    South African Capesize shipments to pressure DES ARA

    Meanwhile, trading sources continued to note that a

    number of Capesize shipments of South African coal were

    expected to start reaching ARA from November onwards,

    CIF ARA spot prices fall over $1as oversupply picture builds again ...from page 1

    about $57-58/mt FOB.

    The Beijing-based trader was currently in talks to book a

    Handysize cargo of 3,800 kcal/kg NAR Indonesian thermal

    coal at about $38.50/mt FOB, or some $51-52/mt CFR for

    November delivery.

    The supplier is about to agree to our terms, he said.

    A Singapore-based trader said a 4,200 kcal/kg GAR, 50,0mt cargo from South Kalimantan was being offered to

    interested buyers at $39/mt FOB.

    India is quiet this week because of Diwali, the first

    Singapore-based trader said.

    This trader said he heard an offer for a CFR east coast

    India cargo of Kalimantan coal with a CV of 4,200 kcal/kg

    GAR at $52.50/mt.

    Platts assessed Thursday the 90-day price for FOB

    Kalimantan thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,900 kca

    kg GAR at $66.60/mt, flat on-day, and for 5,000 kcal/kg GA

    at $54/mt, up 25 cents from Wednesday.

    FOB Kalimantan thermal coal with a calorific value of

    4,200 kcal/kg GAR for loading in the next 7-45 days was

    assessed at $38.50/mt, stable from Wednesday, and for 3,80

    kcal/kg GAR thermal coal the assessment price was $32.70/

    mt, down 20 cents on-day.

    Mike Cooper, Cecilia Quiambao, Reggie Le, Jingtai L

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    COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL

    11 Copyright 2013 McGraw Hill Financial

    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013

    fixed by a large Switzerland-based trading house.

    I believe 4-5 million of South African coal will be

    making its way into ARA in Q4-13 and Q1-14 probably

    replacing all the Drummond coal that was not shipped

    because of their force majeure declaration, the utility source

    said, referring to a 53-day industrial action that took place at

    the producers Colombian unit in August and September.The Switzerland-based trader agreed that several vessels had

    already been fixed from Richards Bay to Rotterdam in October

    and November and more were expected for December.

    I believe it will put pressure on DES prices for sure,

    although I do not think the downside is too much. The Swiss

    trading house is playing a big paper game with the spread

    between API2 and API4 they cannot sell [Richards Bay]

    physical into China or India because there is no market at

    these levels, so they are bringing them into Europe, he said.

    According to shipbroker Fearnleys weekly report

    Wednesday, spot Capesize freight rates from Richards Bay to

    Rotterdam are at $10/mt, meaning that, with CIF ARA 15-60

    day prices at $85.60/mt, selling Richards Bay spot coal into

    ARA would translate to a loss of about $8/mt, according to

    Platts calculations.

    The spot South African Richards Bay FOB physical thermal

    coal market fell almost $1 Thursday, the third consecutive

    day of falls, with trading sources noting that there was no

    market for South African coal at levels over $85/mt.

    Platts assessed the price of physical Richards Bay thermal

    coal basis 6,000 kcal/kg NAR and for loading within the next

    7-45 day period at $83.70/mt FOB, down 90 cents on-day.

    The Richards Bay FOB spot market has lost $2.80/mt ov

    three straight days, partly erasing the six-day rally of $11.5

    mt that ended last Thursday.

    No interest from Asia at higher levelsSooner or later the market will have to move back to

    real numbers in the low $80s/mt before we see any interfrom India and other Asian buyers, the Switzerland-base

    trader said.

    The utility source noted that fundamentals had not

    pushed Richards Bay FOB prices higher in their recent bull

    run and were coming off with European financial and

    physical prices.

    The Switzerland-based trader echoed what sources had

    said Wednesday that there was more Asian demand,

    especially from Indian buyers, for Richards Bay 5,500 kcal/

    NAR material, as the levels of $63-64/mt made more sense

    He noted that, with the FOB Richards bay index movin

    lower, the 5,500 kcal/kg NAR discounts to the 6,000 kcal/k

    index were closing in.

    The Switzerland-based trader commented that this wou

    bring some relief to those long on the lower grade mater

    that had an index-linked position and may have entered in

    contracts when the discount had been $4-5/mt, compared

    with recent discounts of $18-19/mt.

    Platts assessed the price of physical Richards Bay therm

    coal basis 5,500 kcal/kg NAR and for loading within the ne

    7-45 day period at $64.60/mt FOB, unchanged on-day.

    Jacqueline Holm