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CO2/GHG Emission Issuesof the PTSP Industry

A CCA Workshop at

The Cool Pharma

Meeting in Brussels,

October 15th-16th, 2008

An Overview – 1in a few words

• Man-made CO2/GHG emissions are a very small part of the total “natural” GHG emissions in the World (maybe 4-5%??, but growing!)

• But GHG emissions have increased extremely fast in the last 200 years; therefore most scientists agree that this emission increase is caused by humans - what we call “Man-Made CO2/GHG Emissions”.

• Likewise, world’s temperature is on a fast rise and so is the sea level.• Emissions from fossil fuel and coal are the two major causes of these

GHG Emissions as well as Temperature Increases.• Therefore, the focus must be on finding alternative and sustainable

energy sources to replace coal and fossil fuel – and thereby reduce GHG Emissions.

• Many people believe that 2nd and 3rd generation biofuel and electricity from sustainable sources (windmills, hydro, solar and – nuclear!) are the best alternatives to replace fossil fuel/coal in the long term future.

• Finally, estimating the CO2/GHG emissions from the PTSP industry is almost impossible as emissions are part of various other sectors -

– Agriculture/Production Plants and Farms/Energy for Plants and Farms, Production, Packing and Packing Materials, Cold Storage and Transport/Distribution/Supermarkets and Retailers etc

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The PTSP Industry is part of various sources of human-produced CO2

Emissions from human activities are increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases that lead to climate change.

Of the greenhouse gases, CO2

has the longest-lasting, global effects.

Global man-made CO2

An Overview – 2in a few words

• At the same time, the global population is estimated to increase from 6.7 billions (2008) to 9 billions (2050) in just 42 years – thus 34% more than today.

• But 19% (1.3 billion humans) already live today in poverty and have insufficient access to fresh water.

• Consequently, there is a future need to produce 34% more food for an increasing population and at the same time also eradicate the present poverty for 1.3 billion people.

• This is a challenge we have never faced before in human history – and most likely an impossible task.

• So what’s the solution?

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NotesOceaniaNorthern America*South America*EuropeAsiaAfricaWorldYear

32,998332,156558,281724,7223,917,508887,9646,453,6282005

31,043315,915520,229727,9863,679,737795,6716,070,5812000

28,924299,438481,099727,4053,430,052707,4625,674,3801995

26,687283,549441,525721,5823,167,807622,4435,263,5931990

24,678269,456401,469706,0092,887,552541,8144,830,9791985

22,828256,068361,401692,4312,632,335469,6184,434,6821980

21,564243,425321,906675,5422,397,512408,1604,068,1091975

19,443231,937284,856655,8552,143,118357,2833,692,4921970

17,657219,570250,452634,0261,899,424313,7443,334,8741965

15,888204,152209,303601,4011,674,336277,3982,981,6591960

14,265186,884190,797575,1841,541,947246,7462,755,8231955

12,812171,616167,097547,4031,398,488221,2142,518,6291950

6,00082,00074,000408,000947,0001,650,0001900

2,00026,00038,000276,000809,000111,0001,262,0001850

2,0007,00024,000203,000635,000107,000978,0001800

2,0002,00016,000163,000502,000106,000791,0001750

310,0001000

200,0001

[8]100,000500 BC

[8]50,0001000 BC

35,0002000 BC

25,0003000 BC

[9]20,0004000 BC

15,0005000 BC

10,0006000 BC

7,0007000 BC

[8]5,0008000 BC

3,0009000 BC

1,00010,000 BC

[7]270,000BC

NotesOceaniaNorthern America*South America*EuropeAsiaAfricaWorldYear

Estimated world population at various dates (in thousands)

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A Roadmap for the Future!

• The Roadmap most be two folded;

• Firstly - slow the increasing population– Education

– Incentives– Lifestyle improvements

• Secondly – focus on developing sustainable energy sources with – in the long-term - Zero GHG Emissions– Take measurable steps to develop sustainable energy sources for

electricity– Convert – over time - all land based activities and transportation to

run on sustainable electricity– Develop 2nd/3rd generation biofuel (thus NON-FOOD resources) for

aviation and shipping with – in the long-term - Zero GHG Emissions

• The Result– Over time bring the global Climate and Temperature back to

“normal”, reducing GHG and global Pollution

Do we have enough fossil fuel to meet the future demand?

• Most likely not! Some wise men say we have already reached the pivot point (we are going downhill – less supplies in the future – others say we shall reach the turning point in 5 to 15 years). A few are even very optimistic and say that new explorations and discoveries of fossil fuel resources shall provide amble supplies way into the future, enough to meet the future increasing demand!

• Whoever might be right (and most tend to believe that 5 to 10 years is all we have, but the International Energy Agency says 2030). But prices shall increase (because of increased demand versus less supplies and more costly exploration) reaching levels of USD 150-200/per barrel – or even more.

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Public Electricity and Heating - 1• The CO2/GHG emission from this sector is estimated

to 35% of the total man-made footprint in the world.

• Coal and Fossil Oil based Energy Plants contribute the largest part of man-made GHG pollution. China alone is said to be building 2 new coal based Energy Plants per week that do not all have or use the latest filter technology to reduce GHG.

• China shall in the future be the world’s biggest user of energy, especially of electricity (mainly from coal) and crude oil/fossil fuel for its heating, industries and transportation.

• World energy demand is expected to increase by 50% over the next decade and China shall absorb a major part of that increased demand/production.

Public Electricity and Heating - 2

• Electricity from Hydro, Solar, Windmills, Nuclear and other “clean” energy sources is feasible; the technology is there although it needs to be “fine-tuned” and produced at “acceptable costs and retail prices”.

• Consequently, if the world is willing to invest in and develop the quantities required from such sustainable energy sources – it can be done over the next 10 to 20 years - maybe faster – and reduce GHG emissions up to 35%; no doubt a major achievement!

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The Roadmap for the PTSP Industry(and most other industries)

• The previous slides outline the situation in the world that shall be the future playground for PTSPs and Transportation.

• Reducing the Emission of the PTSP Industry is two-folded;

– Firstly; Each Producer shall develop their own methods for Green Facilities and Farms, production procedures, packaging, sustainable resources and local distribution, all with zero or lowest possible GHG Emissions. As such, each Producer or Manufacture shall have their own “Green Code of Conduct” (demanded by the clients) that is best adapted to their products, their production and overall needs

– Secondly – intercontinental transportation by sea or air - of PTSPs shall in the future be managed by new technologies that shall reduce the GHG Emissions to zero or lowest possible.

• The result shall be a sizeable change towards reducing GHG Emissions and “eliminating” pollution and at the same time improve product quality and reduce waste.

Sustainable Energy for Transportation - 1• Sustainable Electricity (in a transition period, maybe combined

with some Biofuel!) can also provide the necessary energy for road transportation (18% of total man-made GHG emission) and rail (a large part of the worlds railways are still not electrified! –Russia, India, China and even the US).

• Electric cars are in the making

– ProjectBetterPlace/Renault-Nissan & Dong (Denmark) shall market an electric car as of 2010 in Israel and Denmark.

– Volvo/Saab/Wattenfall shall offer a hybrid/electric car also in 2010.

• Electric cars can over a period of 5 to 15 years substantially reduce the GHG emission from road transportation, especially if the concept is widely accepted, the infrastructure developed and financial incentives (lower EV and sustainable energy taxes) are offered by governments (a very important condition).

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Sustainable Energy for Transportation - 2

• Electric Trucks, Vans and Buses shall soon follow the electric car concept; Volvo and others are already working on it.

• DHL plans to replace all their city vans with electric vans – and others are following.

• London City have already introduced a waiver for access taxes or toll fees to the city for electric cars.

• Electric vehicles and cars shall reduce considerably the GHG emission in the EU; but can the rest of the world do the same? China, India, the US etc ???

• Sustainable energy for the Shipping Industry is forth coming, but the final solution (Gas or Biofuel or other!) is still in the making.

Sustainable Energy for Transportation - 3

• Finally the question of the aviation industry!

• Although aviation is a very visible CO2/GHG emission

contributor, it’s not the worst – far from actually - 2-3% of total.

• In general and since the last 10 to 20 years, each new aircraft

type has a 10 to 15% fuel efficiency (savings) – thus less fuel,

less GHG emission.

• But aviation can not – in broad terms – use clean electricity as

energy. Consequently the most promising replacement of

present Jet-Kerosene (from fossil oil) is sustainable Biofuel.

• Boeing, Airbus and the engine manufactures believe that

present engine technology can operate on Biofuel (tests are

very promising) and that within 5 to 15 years, the aviation

industry has converted to Biofuel.

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Sustainable Energy for Transportation - 4

• Most promising is sustainable Biofuel from Algae, thus non-

food plants and other non-food biomass or waste as well as

enzyme based biofuels.

• Biofuel can reduce GHG emission for aviation by 40 to 80% - a

major reduction of CO2/GHG emission.

• That’s why Biofuel from non-food biomass and Sustainable

Energy for Transportation is so important.

• Finally, UK’s Cranfield University estimates that air cargo’s

contribution to global CO2 emissions is between 0.3% to 0.6%

of the total man-made CO2 emissions.

• Consequently, I would guess that the CO2/GHG emission from

air transportation is the smaller part of the total emission from

the PTSP industry; but that of course needs to be clarified!

Can the world produce enough Biofuel to replace all fossil fuel?

• Doubtfully - but it could replace fossil fuel for aviation and possible also shipping. Thus Public Electricity and Heating, Industry and Road Transportation should come from other sustainable energy sources –such as sustainable electricity.

• Aviation consumes today around 238 Million Tonnes of Jet-Kerosene per year. And Jet-Kerosene is only a very small part of the total world consumption of fossil fuel or crude oil. Actually the world consumes 85 million barrels per day in total – aviation only 5 million, thus 5-6%.

• Production of Biofuel from Algae alone is estimated to 3600 tonnes/yearly per km2 – requiring 66000 km2 – or the size of Ireland!!!!!

• But 66000 km2 is only 0.013% of the globe’s total surface or 0.044% of it’s land surface or 0.018% of the sea surface! So that is certainly possible.

• And present as well as new technologies enables the world to produce Biofuel in tanks and other “compact” facilities, thus less land area!

• So Yes, it’s possible to replace fossil fuel with Biofuel for Aviation!• But doubtfully, Biofuel can not replace all the world’s present fossil

fuel energy! Consequently, sustainable energy (electricity) is needed for the rest of the world’s energy requirements.

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Biofuel Production Efficiency

EOT_Sub_Template.ppt | 17Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.

1st Generation 2nd Generation

3rd Generation88,800

CCA and Manufacturing/Production

• It’s not the task of CCA to address how each producer shall manage their own production and facilities; they know far better than we how to handle that in order to meet consumer demand and global regulations; not to forget confidential production specifications and other issues etc.

• But the CCA’s CCQIs does outline how to improve quality and at the same time reduce waste; so indirectly, applying the CCA CCQI Master Tables does “include” at certain CO2 reduction in itself.

• But the CCA can also be of assistance to spread the word about the efforts the PTSP Industry is taking to cut GHG Emission, all while still respecting individual views, competitive aspects, efforts and promotional issues.

• Coordination and cooperation among the CCA and pharmaceutical associations, food associations and many others on these issues might be equally constructive!

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CCA and Transportation

• In this field the CCA can certainly be very useful;– By establishing links and contacts with the transportation

industry, such as the already initiated cooperation with IATA– By supporting efforts within the transport industry to develop

sustainable energy for all forms of transportation– By promoting - within the transportation industry the - CCA

initiatives as well as working with transportation to find solutions and creating a constructive cooperation.

– By bringing to the attention of the media, the CO2 reduction efforts undertaken in the PTSP industry and taking corrective steps whenever the PTSP industry has been incorrectly quoted or blamed in the media.

– By continuing to undertake case studies that promotes the PTSP Industry within the Environment issues, such as has been done already with the CCA CO2 Project Report of May 2008.

• The Result shall be to underline that the CCA members are actively participating in the global efforts to reduce GHG Emissions and reduce pollution as well as waste.

The IATA-CCA cooperation

• IATA and CCA has made an “understanding of cooperation” that we shall exchange information between the two organization, cooperate wherever possible and try to avoid overlapping functions.

• IATA has access to CCA’s CO2 Project Report (but IATA can not circulate it to members) and CCA as access to IATA’s documentation on CO2/GHG issues

• We both welcome the other party in our meetings and jointly work towards a reduction in the GHG Emissions from Air Transportation and the PTSP Industry.

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IATA’s Vision• To promote – through various initiatives – a global aviation industry

with Zero Carbon Emission in 2050-2060 (G. Bisignani, April 8th, 2008.• IATA’s Strategy is contained in 4 “pillars” –

– 01-Technology; new aircraft and engine capabilities and supporting development of sustainable Biofuels from 2nd and 3rd

generation biomass – each new aircraft type cuts 10-15% in fuel.– 02-Operations; more efficient aircraft operations, shorter routes

and new procedures to cut fuel consumption (up to 6%).– 03-Infrastructure; promoting new airspace management and new

airport efficiencies (could eliminate up to 12% of GHG emissions).– 04-Economic Measures; initiatives should be used to boost

research, development and deployment of new aviation technologies including tax credits.

CCA Notes;The global efforts to soon develop 2nd & 3rd generation biofuel from sustainable biomass promises the most important opportunity; Boeing, Honeywell, Yale University and 9 airlines (so far) has stated that they expect to start replacing fossil fuel with biofuel by 2013.

• The result could be a reduction of 40% to 80% in CO2/GHG emission from aviation if the right technologies to produce the biofuel are used.

• Furthermore, biofuel is expected to be produced at costs (well) below today’s price of fossil fuel.

The CCA Roadmap towards COP15 andthe new KYOTO Convention

• Most industries – if not all - shall directly or indirectly be included in the new KYOTO convention.

• Consequently it shall be a constructive step to coordinate efforts to obtain a “fair” assessment within the new convention. The best way to achieve such a “status” is most likely to be open about the efforts undertaken already – and in the future – of the PTSP industry – to prevent “damaging”regulations and to communicate our views and suggestions to the governments, EU and other world regulators.

• These undertakings should be closely coordinated and monitored with other PTSP associations and organizations in order to have the greatest impact.

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A Summary of Recommendations - 1

• The CCA should keep itself updated on CO2/GHG reduction initiatives and keep it’s members abreast via the CCA website.

• The CCA should form a “Environment Working Group” in order to create a wider awareness of the matter and to give on-going advice to the CCA BOD.

• The CCA should promote further cooperation with other appropriate industry bodies in order to maximize the opportunity to gain further credibility in the industry at large. These might include –

– International Air Transport Association (IATA)

– International Maritime Association (IMO)

– International Road Transport Union (IRU)

– World Food Logistics Organization (WFLO)

– The European Commissions - Environment (EC-EU/ENV)

– others?

In Action

A Summary of Recommendations - 2

• The CCA should strive, through its membership, to be the industry source of information and opinion on the matters of CO2 emissions in the PTSP sector.

• The CCA should – together with its members –evaluate how best to position the PTSP industry in relation to the new 2012 KYOTO Convention -maintaining a “voice” of the PTSP Industry at the COP15 UN meeting in Copenhagen, December 2009.

• Other Recommendations?

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Acknowledgements

• Supporting slides with the courtesy of –

– The Boeing Company www.boeing.com.

– International Air Transport Association www.iata.org

– International Energy Agency www.iea.org

– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change www.ipcc.ch

– Project Better Place www.betterplace.com

– Wikipedia www.wikipedia.com

– World Energy Outlook www.worldenergyoutlook.org

– World Resources Institute www.wri.org

– World Watch Institute www.worldwatchinstitute.org