Title

CO2 emissions reduction from HGVs and freight, the UK perspective

Julia KingVice Chancellor Aston University, Birmingham UK

Member of the UK Committee on Climate Change

Challenge Bibendum

20th May 2011

2

Background

• The UK’s approach to reducing CO2 emissions is through 5 year, legislated ‘Carbon Budgets’

• The 4th Budget, 2023 – 2027, has just been accepted by Government and is about to be recommended to Parliament for approval

• The first three Budgets (2008 – 2022): focus on emissions from cars and vans

• 4th Budget (2023 – 2027): HGVs and freight start to make a significant contribution in scenario modelling – and more is needed

The UK’s 2050 target

International aviation & shipping*

Agriculture non-CO2

Other non-CO2 & LUC

Industry (heat and industrial processes)

Residential & commercial heat

Domestic transport

Power generation

* bunker fuels basis

76% cut(=80% vs. 1990)

159 MtCO2e

670 MtCO2e

20%

4

90% reduction needed for surface transport

• 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050

• At least 90% reduction likely to be required in surface transport sector• more challenging sectors (international aviation and shipping, agricultural

non-CO2, some areas of industry) unlikely to achieve 80% reduction

• 90% total reduction likely to be required across other sectors (transport, buildings and industry, power)

• Emissions reduction measures need to be consistent with 90% reduction in land transport by 2050

5

4th Carbon Budget planning scenario

2050 allowed emissions

Scenario emissions to 2030

2

2

2

2

-27%

-65%

3.2% p.a. reduction 2008-2030

4.7% p.a. reduction 2030-2050

2030: a 46% reduction from today, leaving a 63% reduction to 2050

6

Context for transport scenariosPast and forecast emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MtC

O2

Other

Rail

Bus

HGV

Van

CarHistoric emissions BAU forecast

7

UK HGV emissions and distance travelled trends

1990 – 2008 HGV g/km fell 14%: 917 to 791g/kmHGV km travelled increased by 15%Cars g/km fell 16%, km increased 20%

8

The first three budgets focussed on cars & vans

DECC 2008, 2008 final UK greenhouse gas emissions: data tables

9

Context for transport scenariosScenario to 2020

• New car efficiency of 95 gCO2/km including impact of electric vehicles

• Significant take up of electric cars (BEV and PHEV) with 16% of new car sales and 1.7 million cars on the road in 2020

• New van efficiency of 135 gCO2/km in 2020 (in line with now superseded EU target proposal!)

• Limited abatement in HGVs

• Biofuels to supply 8% of total liquid fuel consumption (by energy)

• Roll-out of Smarter Choices to all UK cities and towns

• Training 10% of car and van drivers and 100% of HGV drivers in eco-driving techniques

• Enforcing the existing 70 mph speed limit on motorways and dual carriageways

10

Transport scenarios to 2030 The ‘Medium Abatement’ scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MtC

O2

Other

Rail

Bus

HGV

Van

Car

Reference

Extended

67Mt

Cars: 49% reduction

11

HGV improvement: Ricardo report for DfT

• Review of Low Carbon technologies for Heavy Goods Vehicles prepared for the UK Department for Transport, March 2010 Ricardo plc

• A technology study to look at the options for CO2 reduction –effectiveness, limitations, safety, estimated costs – to inform a regulatory and funding framework to reduce emissions from HGVs

• Medium Duty vehicle: 7.5t, urban use – stop/start, 2-axle, rigid

• Heavy Duty vehicle: > 32.5t, motorway use, 3-axle, articulated

• Vehicles: aerodynamics, rolling resistance, driver behaviour, electric bodies

• Powertrain: engine efficiency, waste heat recovery, alternative powertrains and transmissions

• Fuels: biodiesel, biogas, hydrogen

12

Significant abatement required for HGVs

-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0%

% C

O2

redu

ctio

n

Source: Ricardo (2010), Technology Roadmap Study for Low Carbon

HGVs

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000Co

st (£

)

13

Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for HGVs

1,000

1,200

400£/tCO2

-200

0Full hybrid

CNG/CBG enginges

Heat recovery (heat exchanger)

Electrical turbocompounding

Alternative fuelled bodies

Low rolling resistance tyres

Single wide tyresFlywheel hybrid

Aerodynamic trailers/bodies200

Aerodynamic fairings

600

800

Abatement cost curve for large articulated

HGVs

£/tCO2

Carbon price2030-2042

14

Applicability of technologies: Automotive Council

UK Automotive Council Commercial and Off-Highway Vehicle Roadmap 2010

Med

ium

Dut

y Cy

cles

Ligh

t Dut

y Cy

cles

• intelligent logistics; driver behaviour • advanced highway aerodynamics; lightweighting; rolling resistance• electric bodies and ancillary equipment • powertrain efficiency improvements • biofuels/sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels • waste heat recovery • advanced thermodynamic cycles • ICE engine efficiency improvements H

eavy

Dut

y Cy

cles

• micro/mild hybrid • full hybrid • plug-in hybrid • fuel cell APUs • fuel cell vehicles

• niche EVs• commercial EVs

CORE TECHNOLOGIES: apply to all duty cycles

Technologies which apply to medium and light duty cycles

Technologies for light duty cycles only

15

HGV technologies in the 2030 scenario

• Rigid HGVs– Low rolling resistance tyres– Stop start hybrid

• Articulated HGVs– Low rolling resistance tyres– Flywheel hybrid– Aerodynamic trailer/body– Aerodynamic fairings– Single wide tyres

• Emissions reduction delivered from these technologies– 17% for rigid HGVs– 28% for articulated HGVs

• Additional contributions for HGVs– 100% driver training in ‘Eco Driving’– 11% biofuel by energy, 12% by volume– Demand reduction: 6.5% HGV km

Energy: 52% overcoming rolling resistance35% aerodynamic drag

16

Hydrogen vehicle assumptions in 2030

• Assumption that there is no widespread national hydrogen fuelling infrastructure in the 2030 scenario

• Opportunities for hydrogen limited to depot based fuelling model

• 50% new buses run on hydrogen by 2030

• We consider this a “worst/minimum case” hydrogen scenario; ideally cost and technology breakthroughs will make hydrogen a stronger part of the mix by 2030, especially in vehicles where battery technology is unsuitable

17

‘Cautious’ biofuel assumptions in 2030

• Holding position in advance of 2011 Bioenergy Review

• Previous advice consistent with Gallagher Review (2008): maximum of 8% by energy in 2020

• 31TWh in 2020 held constant to 2030 (11% of liquid fuel by energy in 2030)

• High scenario based on IEA BLUE Map global biofuel consumption: 61TWh (21% of liquid fuel by energy) in 2030

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

HG

V k

m (b

n)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Reduction in freight demand

• Insufficient understanding of emissions reduction potential and cost

• Widespread agreement that km, fuel and CO2 can be reduced

• Cautious 6.5% reduction by 2030

NTM reference

13% reduction

19

UK freight emissions by mode

Alan McKinnon for Commission for Sustainable Transport UK 2009

20

Capacity utilisation and fuel efficiency

Martintek et al 2006, report for IMO

21

Transport reductions in 2030 scenario

• Surface transport emissions reduced from 110Mt CO2 to 67Mt in 2030: 44%

• Demand reduction: Smarter Choices, Speed Limiting, Eco-driving, modest reduction in freight demand

• Conventional vehicle efficiency: 80g cars, 120g vans• Electric and PHEV cars and vans reach 60% of new vehicles• Overall vehicle emissions: 52g/km new cars - 64% reduction, 81g/km

fleet - 53% reduction• Biofuels remain at Gallagher level of 31TWh, 12% of liquid fuel• Hydrogen buses reach 50% of new vehicles• 17- 28% reduction in CO2 emissions from HGVs• Overall reductions

• 49% for cars• 35% HGVs

• Total cost of abatement in 2030: £1890 million or 0.1% of GDP

22

Transport: 44% reduction by 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MtC

O2

Other

Rail

Bus

HGV

Van

Car

Reference

Extended

67Mt

Cars: 49% reduction

More needed...overall requirement of 46% reduction across the economy

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Answers please...

• What else can should we include?

• What savings will it deliver?

• How much will it cost?

• What is it applicable to?

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Challenges

• What will effective HGV fuel economy standards look like?• Can regulations drive retrofitting?• How to deal with complexity – vehicle configuration,

application, duty cycle, local terrain...• Euro6 and NOx vs engine efficiency and CO2

• Demonstration: confirm emissions reduction and abatement costs

• Lifecycle analysis of technologies• Can we drive improvement faster?• ...