CO 2 and Energy. Context: Energy and Climate Change.
-
Upload
jayson-woodcock -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
2
Transcript of CO 2 and Energy. Context: Energy and Climate Change.
CO2 and Energy
Context: Energy and Climate Change
0
2
4
6
8
10
1850 1900 1950 2000
Car
bo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
/yr)
coal
oil
gas
deforestation
cement and gas flaring
Context: Energy and Climate Change
Consumption // Population // Energy
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
SO
CIE
TA
L S
UC
CE
SS
NATIONAL SECURITY
PUBLIC HEALTH
AGRICULTURE
Outline Lecture 1
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use– CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
– Current sources of energy
– Emissions from economic sectors
– Energy consumption by end use
– External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Outline Lecture 2
Lecture 2: Future energy use and climate change mitigation– ‘Business as usual’
– ‘Wedges’ to mitigate climate change
– Energy supply decarbonization ‘tools’
– Specific ‘wedges’ of mitigation
Key references and websites
Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends.
The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006.– This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to
reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth
– Accessible through http://mirlyn.lib.umich.edu
Outline Lecture 1 Revisited
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use
–CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
– Current sources of energy– Emissions from economic sectors– Energy consumption by end use– External costs to energy use (besides
climate change)
So CO2 emissions arise from: 1. Cement production (~5 %)2. Deforestation (~20 %)3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1850 1900 1950 2000
Car
bo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
/yr)
coal
oil
gas
deforestation
cement and gas flaring
World Carbon Emissions
75%
CO2 source: Cement Production
Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO3).
For production of cement: CaCO3 CaO + CO2
Production of cement emits CO2 for two reasons:
1. CO2 emitted directly2. Production process takes place at
high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy.
Accounts for ~5 % of CO2 emissions worldwide
CO2 source: Deforestation Massive deforestation occurred
– In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy)
– In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood.
When forests are cut down, CO2 is released from:– Carbon in trees, plants, etc.
(conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction)
– Carbon in the soil (roots, humus)
Forests absorb “excess” CO2, since elevated CO2 stimulates growth– Removal of forests removes this
natural buffer against climate change
CO2 source: Deforestation
Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:– It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions– It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial
times.
0
2
4
6
8
10
1850 1900 1950 2000
Car
bo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
/yr)
coal
oil
gas
deforestation
cement and gas flaringFossil fuels 320
Deforestation 200
Total 520
Compare to 590 GtC in the preindustrial
atmosphere
GtC
CO2 source: Fossil Fuel Use
Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption over past century– Why did this occur?
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
GDP/capita is considered the “societal success”
Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita.
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)
Energy and population
Strong population increase since pre-industrial times!
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
World GDP/capita
Also strong growth in GDP/capita!
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
Energy and GDP
Energy/unit GDP decreases as societies become more developed shift from manufacturing to services (root cause of Michigan’s economic trouble)
But total energy use per capita does not decrease.
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008
Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in U.S. (index, 1980 = 1)
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have been increases in population and GDP/capita
This is why climate change problem is so difficult: – We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…)– Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible
But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to knowledge-based economy (developed world now).
Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic!– To reduce CO2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO2 emitted per
unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing. – We’ll get to options for reducing CO2/energy in 2nd lecture
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)*(energy/unit GDP)
Outline Lecture 1 Revisited
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use– CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
–Current sources of energy– Emissions from economic sectors
– Energy consumption by end use
– External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
In what forms do we consume energy?
Fossil fuels:– Coal– Oil– Natural gas
Other:– Nuclear– Hydro– Renewables
(mostly biomass)
– ‘Hydrogen’Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Current sourcesof energy:
Fossil fuels
Energy sources: Coal Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all
fossil fuels
Accounts for ~29% of world CO2 emissions
Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations)
Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)
Coal is major source of air pollution
Coal emits sulfur and smoke particulates
“Great London smog” of 1952 led to thousands of casualties.– Caused by cold inversion layer
pollutants didn’t disperse + Londoners burned large amounts of coal for heating
Demonstrated impact of pollutants and played role in passage of “Clean Air Acts” in the US and Western Europe
Coal use in the US
After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal use
Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is readily available
Coal use by sector in US
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy sources: Oil Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per
unit energy.
Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2 emissions.
Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating
Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.)
U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern
Energy sources: Natural gas
Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per unit energy
Accounted for ~16% of world CO2 emissions
Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal)
Proven reserves are another ~65 years
Trend of fossil fuel use
In ‘business-as-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy
China currently adds one coal-fired power plant a week…
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Reserves of fossil fuels
We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed
methane, etc..– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Fuel type: Proven reserves (years)
Unconventional reserves (years)
Oil 41 125
Coal 251 210
Natural Gas 64 360Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004
Current sourcesof energy:
nuclear and renewables
Energy sources: Nuclear
Accounts for ~6 % of world energy consumption and ~ 19 % of US electricity generation
Used only for electricity generation
No CO2 emissions from plant operating, but some from uranium mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions per unit energy)
Concerns about nuclear waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation
Hardly growing in most of developed world.
Nuclear share of electricity generation in U.S.
Nuclear power plant licenses issued in U.S.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Chernobyl
Energy sources: Renewables Mostly from
biomass (wood), hydro power, and biofuels.
Contribution from other renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, tides) are small.
Will discuss all these in more detail in 2nd lecture.
Renewable energy as share of total energy in U.S., 2006
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood:
– Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy!– It’s merely an energy carrier, much like electricity
Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water:
This requires electricity
Hydrogen burns cleanly
Hydrogen’s significance is that: 1. It can be produced using renewable energy, which
would displace fossil fuel. 2. Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they occur at
a central location rather than individual cars.
In the absence of policies including cost of climate change, hydrogen would be generated using cheap coal-generated electricity
Outline Lecture 1 Revisited
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use– CO2 emissions: where do they come from?– Current sources of energy
–Emissions from economic sectors
– Energy consumption by end use– External costs to energy use (besides
climate change)
Emissions from economic sectors
Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
Transportation: cars, planes, ships
US energy use by sector
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Transportation sector
Sector with fastest growing CO2 emissions in US
Dominated by oil and road transport
Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO2 emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Buildings sector
Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)
Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating
Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Industrial sector
Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.
The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.
Also includes agriculture…
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel
U.S. energy consumption by sector
Agriculture
Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries.– Half of used energy and direct
CO2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)
BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
Livestock rearing is most significant contributor
Agriculture: Livestock 2006 report of Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the UN:– “The livestock sector emerges as one of
the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.”
Important economic sector:– Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor)– Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land
surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production
33 % of arable land for feed production
Agriculture: Livestock Increasing demand for livestock
products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation!– 70 % of deforested land in the
Amazon is occupied by pastures. – Feedcrops cover most of remaining
30 %.– Livestock-induced deforestation
emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation)
Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.
Agriculture: Livestock Responsible for ~18 % of CO2
equivalent GHG emissions (so including N2O and CH4) Same share as entire US!– 9 % of world CO2 emissions
Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer Deforestation and land use changes for
feed production and grazing
– 37 % of world CH4 emissions Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest
anthropogenic source) Animal manure
– 65 % of N2O Mostly from animal manure deposited on
soils, with subsequent N2O emission 0
2
4
6
8
10
1850 1900 1950 2000
Car
bo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
/yr)
coal
oil
gas
deforestation
cement and gas flaring
Outline Lecture 1 Revisited
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use– CO2 emissions: where do they come from?– Current sources of energy– Emissions from economic sectors
–Energy consumption by end use
– External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Energy consumption by end use The three main end
uses of fossil fuel are:
– Electric power plants (~40 % of CO2 emissions)
– Transportation (~23 % of CO2 emissions)
– Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO2 emissions)
So ~40 % CO2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
World CO2 emissions by fuel and end use
Energy consumption by end use:Electricity
Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels
One third from hydro and nuclear power
Cost of Electricity
Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006
Cost of lectricity in US in 2002
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat)
We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed
methane, etc..– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Fuel type: Proven reserves (years)
Unconventional reserves (years)
Oil 41 125
Coal 251 210
Natural Gas 64 360Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004
Electricity generation:Switch to renewables in future?
So in ‘business-as-usual’ abundant, cheap, fossil fuel-derived electricity will likely be available until the end of the century.
This cheap electricity can also be used to produce hydrogen fuel, should oil demand exceed supply.
Renewables will thus not play important role until– Externalities are taken into
account (taxes, cap-and-trade)– There are technological
breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion)
Energy consumption by end use:Direct fuel use
‘Direct fuel use’:– Transportation (oil)– Heating in buildings– Industrial processes
Dominated by oil
Currently no real alternatives for transportation fuels– Biofuels do not mitigate
CO2 emission (more in 2nd lecture)
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Outline Lecture 1 Revisited
Lecture 1: Current and past energy use– CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
– Current sources of energy
– Emissions from economic sectors
– Energy consumption by end use
–External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Externality 1:Energy and National Security
U.S. imports most of its oil– This is a liability, as some of that oil
comes from Middle East (though not as much as one would think!)
– Past (and most of current) U.S. energy policy revolves around energy security – not climate change mitigation
Majority of remaining oil in Middle East
Origin of US oil imports, 2006
US oil trade
Externality 2:Energy and Public Health
The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of air pollution, emitting– Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause
headaches and exacerbate heart disease– Nitrogen oxides (NOx), which causes respiratory
problems and leads to smog– Sulfur dioxide (SO2), which produces acid rain and smog– Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems– Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through
fish, where they bioaccumulate.
The overall cost of air pollution on human health is large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to quantify
Externality 3:Energy and climate (besides
greenhouse warming) Burning of fossil
fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by:– Scattering
radiation– Seeding clouds
Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate…
To be continued….
So what does our energy future look like?– Can we sustain our economic growth while
avoiding ‘dangerous’ climate change?– What roles can renewable energy, hydrogen,
biofuels, carbon sequestration play in this?
Will discuss in more detail in 2nd lecture on Thursday