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CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 ... · Deflator: INPC-IBGE Capacity...
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Negative September for industry INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial indicators - September 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from August 2018 Ç REAL SALES Down by 1.1% Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.9% Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.4 percentage point Ç EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.1% Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.3% Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 0.1% Data from the September issue of the Industrial Indicators survey show a decline in industrial activity. Sales, hours worked in production, employment, and capacity utilization are down in September on a month-over-month basis. On the other hand, total payroll and real earnings grew, but at a timid rate as compared to the declines registered in recent months. Among the variables considered in the survey, the sales indicator is the only one to show a recovery trend. Despite the decline in the month, sales are up as compared to both September and December 2017. Hours worked in production, on the other hand, have oscillated, but the declines have been much higher than the increases. As a result, hours worked have been pointing to a downward trend. This indicator was also lower than that observed in the same month of 2017 and in last December. CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 • September 2018
Transcript of CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 ... · Deflator: INPC-IBGE Capacity...
Negative September for industry
INDUSTRIALINDICATORS
Industrial indicators - September 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from August 2018
Ç REAL SALES Down by 1.1%
Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.9%Indústria Petrolífera
Indústria Química
Pequena Média Grande
Indústrias Diversas
Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia
Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATIONDown by 0.4 percentage point
Ç EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.1%
Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.3%
Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGSUp by 0.1%
Data from the September issue of the Industrial Indicators survey show a decline in industrial activity. Sales, hours worked in production, employment, and capacity utilization are down in September on a month-over-month basis. On the other hand, total payroll and real earnings grew, but at a timid rate as compared to the declines registered in recent months.
Among the variables considered in the survey, the sales indicator is the only one to show a recovery trend. Despite the decline in the month, sales are up as compared to both September and December 2017. Hours worked in production, on the other hand, have oscillated, but the declines have been much higher than the increases. As a result, hours worked have been pointing to a downward trend. This indicator was also lower than that observed in the same month of 2017 and in last December.
CNI IndicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 • September 2018
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Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 • September 2018
Hours worked in productionSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked in production on a downtrendIn September, hours worked in production edged down by 0.9% in the seasonally adjusted series. Since the beginning of the year, hours worked have been alternating between positive and negative results. In recent months, however, the declines have outpaced the gains. As a result, the indicator shows a downward trend. Compared with December 2017, hours worked are down by 2.2%. The indicator is also down by 2.1% from the same month in 2017. On a year-to-date basis, however, hours worked are up by 0.4%.
EmploymentSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales fall in September Real sales in industry fell by 1.1% in September in the seasonally adjusted series, partially reversing the 1.7% increase seen last month. Sales have been oscillating in recent months, even after the truck drivers’ strike occurred in May. Yet, the indicator remains on an upward trend, as it is up by 4% from December 2017 and by 4.6% from September of that same year. In the year to September, the indicator is 5.4% higher than that observed during the same period in 2017.
Real SalesSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
90
100
110
120
130
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
95
100
105
110
115
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
85
90
95
100
105
Employment keeps falling slowlyAfter increasing by 0.1% in the previous month, industrial employment dropped by 0.1% in September 2018 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Very slowly, employment has shown a downward trend in 2018: the indicator fell in four months in 2018, compared to three months of growth and two of stability. Compared with December 2017, jobs are down by 0.5%. However, employment is up by 0.4% both as compared to the same month in 2017 and in the year to September 2018 as compared to the corresponding period of 2017.
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
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Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 • September 2018
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
77
79
81
83
Average earnings hold virtually steady in September
Real average earnings
Average earnings rose by 0.1% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marked the first increase after a five-month downtrend, during which the index dropped by 2.4%. In September, the indicator fell by 0.8% from December 2017 and by 2.2% from the figure for September of the same year. In the year to September 2018, ave-rage earnings are down by 1.8% as compared to the corresponding period in 2017.
Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Capacity utilization falls
Capacity utilizationSeasonally adjusted (average percentage)
In the seasonally adjusted series, the capacity utilization rate fell by 0.4 percentage points between August and September 2018 to 77.8%. The decline in the indicator interrupted a three-month uptrend, which in turn had entirely reversed the decline seen in May. In September 2018, capacity utilization is up by 0.3 percentage points from the figure observed in 2017, while the average capacity utilization rate for the January-September 2018 period is up by 0.5 percentage points.
77.8%
Indústria Petrolífera
Indústria Química
Pequena Média Grande
Indústrias Diversas
Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia
Total payroll increases slightly in SeptemberIn seasonally adjusted terms, real total payroll rose by 0.3% in September. This growth only partially offsets August’s 0.7% drop. Total payroll fell in five of the last nine months, leading the indicator to fall by 0.8% as compared to December 2017. The index is also down from the same month in 2017 (-1.9%) and in the January-September 2018 period over the corresponding period in 2017 (-1.5%).
Real total payrollSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
110
115
120
125
130
Sep/14 Mar/15 Sep/15 Mar/16 Sep/16 Mar/17 Sep/17 Mar/18 Sep/18
110
115
120
125
130
Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 9 • September 2018
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
PERCENTAGE CHANGE SEP18/ AUG18
SEP18/ AUG18SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SEP18/ SEP17
JAN-SEP18/ JAN-SEP17
Real sales1 -5.6 -1.1 4.6 5.4
Worked hours in production -5.7 -0.9 -2.1 0.4
Employment 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4
Real total payroll2 1.8 0.3 -1.9 -1.5
Real average earnings2 1.6 0.1 -2.2 -1.8
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE SEP18 AUG18 SEP17
Capacity utilization 78.7 79.2 78.4
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted 77.8 78.2 77.5
Resume of results - Industrial indicators
Learn more
i For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.com.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | English version of “Indicadores Industriais Setembro/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.com.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Statistics Unit | Manager: Edson Velloso | Team: Edson Velloso, Marcelo Souza Azevedo and Priscila Garcia | Editing Unit | Coordinator: Carla Gadelha | Graphic design: Simone Marcia Broch | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
