Clouds, Crowds, and Traffic: What 10 emerging Megatrends mean for the future of transportation

1 Confidential & proprietary

© 2013. Confidential & proprietary

Clouds, Crowds & Traffic Ten Emerging Megatrends Impacting the Future of Transportation

Ted Trepanier


Market leader in North

America and Europe

Crowd-sourcing technology

pioneer

175 million consumers

reached daily

1.8 million

miles of road and

32 countries 200+

blue-chip customers

100 million

GPS-enabled vehicles &

devices

INRIX Powers the World's Largest Traffic Intelligence Network


TEN MEGATRENDS Reshaping Mobility


GROWTH OF URBANIZATION Population of urban areas

UN Department of Economics & Social Affairs (ESA), 2011

Now 2050


GROWTH OF URBANIZATION

UN Department of Economics & Social Affairs (ESA), 2011

2025 2011 1980 2025 2011 1980


GROWTH OF URBANIZATION Percentage of Chinese residents living in urban centers

China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013

2025

70%

Now

50%


INRIX Scorecard、2012

COST OF CONGESTION Annual hours wasted per driver

59

Los Angeles

65

Stuttgart

63

Paris


TTI; Centre for Economics and Business Research, 2012

COST OF CONGESTION Economic impact in billions

$121

United States

€7.8

Germany

€5.6

France


POLLUTION % of carbon emissions from vehicles

OECD, 2011

23%


POLLUTION World CO2 emissions

U.S. EIA, 2011

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

MILLION METRIC TONS

United States

China

Europe (OECD)

India


ABI Research (ABI), 2012

CONNECTED CARS

Now 2017

11% 60%


URBAN MOBILITY Rise of on-demand transportation


!

!

D

G

D

V

D G

G

N

N

C C

C

C

C

V

G

N

D

Road sensor

Traffic camera

S

T

V

Commercial Vehicle GPS Probe

Consumer Vehicle GPS Probe

GPS-Enabled Smartphone Probe

Cellular Network Probe

!

!

Driver Generated Report

Accident

Construction

Event

S

T

S

S T

Incidents

Flow

Scotia Bank, 2011

THE “CROWD” 1.3 billion drivers by 2017


!

Road sensor

Traffic camera


Accident

Construction

Event

Incidents

INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network North America, Spring 2010

Examples of 15-Minute Real-Time Snapshots


!

Road sensor

Traffic camera


Accident

Construction

Event

Incidents

INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network North America, Spring 2013



!

!

Road sensor

Traffic camera


Accident

Construction

Event

Incidents

INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network Europe, Fall 2010



!

!

Road sensor

Traffic camera


Accident

Construction

Event

Incidents

INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network Europe, Spring 2013



ACTIVE ROAD NETWORK MANAGEMENT Real-time data and analytics for millions of miles


FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION Big Data and ITS technologies will drive improved urban mobility

• Active/adaptive traffic management

• Dynamic traffic signal timing

• Variable HOT lanes • Congestion based tolling

• Multi-modal travel • Smart parking meters and

predictive availability

• Multi-mode management • Car sharing

Integrated corridor management

Network-wide analysis

System performance monitoring


2015 2020

25 billion

50 billion

CONNECTED DEVICES

Cisco IBSG, 2011


CONNECTED DEVICES Penetration of Internet usage by country

As of 6/30/2012

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

China UnitedStates

India Japan Brazil Russia Germany Indonesia UnitedKingdom

France

MILLIONS OF PEOPLE

Total population Internet users

40%

78%

11%

80% 46% 48% 83% 22%

84% 80%

Internetworldstats.com 6/30/2012


CONNECTED DEVICES 1.5 billion smartphones globally

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

China UnitedStates

Japan Brazil India UnitedKingdom

Korea Indonesia France Germany

MILLIONS OF PEOPLE

Smartphone subscribers

Informa, 2013


INRIX Concept, 2013

PERSONALIZATION Navigating your world


Would it be quicker to park and take the

train?

Is the roadway starting to ice up?

How long will it take to get to home or

work?

Where is the cheapest fuel along

my route?

What’s the best way to avoid this traffic?

Where is the closest available parking?

Where can I charge my electric vehicle?

How efficiently do I drive compared to others in my city?


IN-CAR INFOTAINMENT Adoption by 2019

68%

Strategy Analytics、2012


THE CONNECTED CAR

A

B


TRAFFIC

A

B

Traffic

!


DAILY NAVIGATION

A

B

Traffic Daily navigation


MULTIMODAL ROUTING

A

B


Multimodal routing


ROAD WEATHER

A

B


Road weather

Multimodal routing


LOCAL SEARCH

A

B


Road weather

Multimodal routing

Local search


FUEL PRICES

A

B


Road weather

Fuel prices

Multimodal routing

Local search


PARKING AVAILABILITY

A


Multimodal routing

Road weather

Local search

Fuel prices

Parking availability

P

B

P


DRIVING FORWARD Ten Megatrends

The “Crowd”

Active Road Network

Connected Devices

Personalization

In-car Infotainment

Growth of Urbanization

Cost of Congestion

Pollution

Connected Cars

Urban Mobility


Image: Continental Automotive, 2013

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING “We should be able to do 90% of miles driven within 3 years.” – Elon Musk, Tesla


Twisted Trends

U.S. EIA, 2011

• Woman in the Workforce

• The Baby Boom

• Household Income

• Suburbanization

• Automobile Ownership

• Congestion

• Generational Preferences


The “Planners Challenge”


It is well understood – We cannot build ourselves out of congestion.




It’s also been long assumed that VMT will continue to grow.

Then – the trend twisted




It is well understood – Maximum Freeway Capacity is near 2000 vphpl

Smart Cars will increase this to??? 3000 3500 4000 More…




Consider – decreasing demand – added capacity




What does this mean to the assumption? “We cannot build ourselves out of congestion”




Instead of planning for the Next Transportation Package…




Let’s think about planning for -

The Last Transportation Package


Multnomah County Bottlenecks


Thank You

Ted Trepanier [email protected] www.inrix.com

Clouds, Crowds, and Traffic: What 10 emerging Megatrends mean for the future of transportation

Engineering

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