Closing the ICTs access gaps study
-
Upload
ca -
Category
Presentations & Public Speaking
-
view
107 -
download
1
Transcript of Closing the ICTs access gaps study
CLOSING THE ICTs ACCESS GAPS IN KENYA
by
Paul Kiage
Presentation Outline
1. ICTs Access Gaps Study Objectives
2. Methodology & Modelling Process
3. Key Findings
4. Closing the ICT Gaps: Proposed USF Projects FY 2016/17
5. USF Projects Implementation Plan
Objectives of ICTs Access Gaps Study
• Map out the gaps in voice, data, broadcasting and postal &courier services at sub-location level across all counties in Kenya.
• Engage the industry and other stakeholders to identify the gaps in service provision.
• Closing the Identified ICT Access Gaps – Priority Projects
4
Access Gaps Methodology
Methodology and Modelling Process
• Populations based on 2009 Census up scaled to 2016 at 2.6% av. per annum growth
• Population distribution within sub-locations provided by LandScan dataset• Mobile -90dBm coverage prediction maps from the three operators for Q4 2015
GIS AnalysisIntegrates all
data and provides output
to the Gap Model
Then displays
the results
The Access Gap Financial
Model
Excel Spreadsheet
Inputs from KNBS,
Operators and other
infrastructure & service providers
Gap projectsand
estimated Maximum Subsidies
The GIS-Referenced Model for Mobile Gaps
Identifies:• Uncovered areas & populations per sub-location (from the GIS) • How many new mobile base stations (BTSs) required
– based on assumed tower height & coverage radius
• Demand side assumptions – User penetration and average revenue per user (ARPU)
• Cost side assumptions– Direct sales costs (% of revenues spent on customer acquisition & sales)
– Base station CAPEX costs (towers, power, backbone & equipment)
– Base station OPEX costs (O&M, fuel, spectrum fees and security)
7
Key Findings
The 2G Voice Service Gaps today
Combined operator 2G coverage at -90 dBm signal strength • Minimum 94.4% of population covered
• 5.6% unserved (2.66 Million @ 2017 projection)– Halved since 2011
• 5,657 sub-locations 100% covered• 418 sub-locations with less than 50%
population coverage • Max. 164 sub-locations with zero % coverage
Sub-location population 2G coverage
Coverage 100% >90% 50% - 90% < 50% 0%Sub-locations 5,657 485 425 418 164
3G Data Service Gaps and Fibre access3G coverage and Fibre Routes
• 78% population covered
• Only 17% of the land area
• Huge geographical gap areas,
• But fibre routes reach a high % of population concentrations along the major routes, incl. schools & other institutions
Table 4-2: Sub-location population 3G coverage
Coverage 100% >90%50% - 90% < 50% 0%
Sub-locations 2,454 1,324 1,146 977 1,244
Post & Courier Sub-Sector
• Decline from 900 PO’s (2000) to 695 (2011) has been halted since 2014
• While representation has declined seriously in the North and East, so have volumes of letter mail
• International letter mail and parcel traffic are is increasing
• E-Commerce offers a lifeline but private couriers may be taking the most advantage
• Over 1,000 couriers but only 146 are licensed– Permanent footprint of the larger companies <200
locations
ISIOLOWAJIR
GARISSATANA RIVER
LAMUMARSABITMANDERATURKANASAMBURU
WEST POKOT
NANDIKILIFI
TRANS NZOIAELGEYO-MARAKWET
NAROKLAIKIPIAKWALE
KAJIADO
BOMETMIGORI
BARINGONYANDARUAKIRINYAGATHARAKANYAMIRA
BUSIATAITA TAVETA
EMBUKERICHO
KITUIUASIN GISHUMURANG'A
SIAYANYERI
MOMBASAMERU
MAKUENIHOMA BAY
VIHIGAKAKAMEGA
KISIINAKURU
BUNGOMAKIAMBUKISUMU
MACHAKOSNAIROBI
0 10 20 30 40 50 6022
3555555
66
7777
89991010
1111111111
121212
1515
1616
1717
18181818
19202020
2125
3155Post Offices per County
Jun-2013 Dec 2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 Jun-2015 Dec-2015
667 634 622 622 623 623707 707 707 788
2117 2117
Postal and Courier Outlets
PCK Private courier outlets
Postal and Courier Analysis
• Universal Service defined but no access standards
• Average penetration varies from 1: 25,000 in Nairobi to 1: 178,000 in the worst cases
• Largest area per outlet 10,000 Km2 (100 Km square)• PCK claims making loss in most departmental PO’s, but costs
due to universal service not yet well defined • Courier presence also economically constrained
– Largest domestic network by G4S has 141 POPs, 26 of which are “operating at a loss”
– Some limited efforts to network with smaller couriers in remote areas
Country wide distribution of Post OfficesAdministrative Level
Total At least one PO present
Penetration of post offices
Min Average Max
County 47 47 2 13 55Constituency 295 264 0 2 14Ward 1,450 480 0 33% 10Sub-location 7,149 524 0 7% 7
Broadcasting Sub-sector
• Over 100 FM radio stations• TV Digitalisation well advanced
– Two licensed signal distributors
• 40-50 Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) have been commissioned
• Will be 70-80 by mid 2016• Presence in all counties• Will be 69% population coverage
Digital TV Stations (contracted to Mid-2016)
(dbµV/m)
DTT Broadcast coverage to sub-location level (% of population)
Coverage 100% >90% 50% - 90% < 50% 0%Sub-locations 2,704 677 884 957 1,927
Closing the ICT Gaps -Proposed USF Priority Projects
• Maximum population impact
• Sustainable projects
• Areas not soon to be covered under operator obligations
1. Voice Infrastructure Projects
• Note these estimates are being checked visually with GIS, aggregated if feasible and bidding lots optimised
No. sub-locations with >30% uncovered population 746Total subsidy for all sub-localities and spaces without prioritisation US$ 157 MTotal persons covered if all reached 2.3 MCost per unserved person if all covered KES 6,800
Sub-locations meeting best-case* impact and sustainability criteria
349
Total subsidy for best USF candidates, with populations above 1,000 US$ 41.8 MAverage subsidy per sub-location US$ 120,000Total persons covered if all reached (*50% of the existing gap) 1.3 MnCost per unserved person if all covered KES 3,262
USF reduction due to operator licence commitments
Obligations (No. of sub-locations)Years of
commitmentSafaricom Airtel
2016 243 102017/18 138 302019/2020 140 92021/2022 71 22
• Operators agreed on roll-out obligations under their licence renewal negotiations in 2015 Licence Framework
• “The Licensee shall expand its network coverage to all population centres in the sub-locations listed by the end of the respective financial years indicated”
• Commitments similar to USF objectives and therefore USF need not duplicate these in the short term (2016-2018)
• Beyond 2018, a reduced subsidy formula will be applied
USF potential project overlaps with operator commitments
• Bidding lots will be reduced through aggregating sub-location within wards• Also competitive tenders will reduce USF expenditures to around 67-70% of the budgeted
maximum subsidy estimates
Sub-locations meeting best-case USF criteria 349Total subsidy for best USF candidate sub-locations US$ 41.8 Mn
Sub-locations committed by operators in 2016 81Sub-locations committed by operators in 2017/18 53
Net priority sub-locations needing subsidy from the USF 214Maximum net subsidy for USF US$ 22.6Net Population covered (over half of the 1.3M identified) 693,000Average subsidy per sub-location US$ 105,00Average subsidy per person KES 3,262
Budget for Voice Projects
• Field validation done in April to finalise maximum subsidies• Demand• Sites & coverage• Aggregation & Lot development
• Following competition, it is expected that 67-70% of the maximum estimate will be awarded as subsidies
• Due to progressive tranche-based payment of subsidies over 1 year, max 67% of the budgeted subsidies will be awarded in Fiscal 2016/17
Voice Gap Budgeting
Maximum subsidy estimateUS$ 22.8 M
Distribute in Fiscal 2016/17
US$ 10 M
Expected award amountsUS$ 15.0 M
Example of potentially viable USF projects• Identified at the Sub-location level• But some could be combined into
ward level projects and extended to neighbouring sub-locations
• Important to build contiguously from existing network to avoid repeater sites
USF should not Fund sub-locations already committed under operator licence obligations
Potential projects after overlaps eliminated
Map legend:Combined Operator 2G coverage
Potential USF Selection
Operator commitments 2016
Operator commitments 2017/2018
Overlap - potential USF & 2016 commitment
Overlap - potential USF & 2017/2018 commitment
Potential USF single or multiple sub-location Bidding Lot
Close with modified criteria
How to address the worst cases after Year 1 E.g., remaining sub-locations with zero coverage
Status of 164 sub-locations with zero coverage in 2015 USF
Year 1Operator license commitments Remain
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Sub-locations
42 43 20 25 6 - 28
• 85 to be covered or awarded in 2016– A further 20 by 2018– 28 outstanding after all
commitments made– 7 are commercially
viable
• Some can be addressed with partial coverage through LandScan analysis in year 2 and 3 projects– Reaching the most
populated parts only, contiguous with existing network coverage
3G and broadband
• Mobile coverage is very limited in the Northern and Eastern regions
• Current 3G coverage at 78%– Fibre services also have a very
limited last mile reach into spacious rural areas
• But NOFBI, KETRACO and KPLC routes have strong potential to reach all major population centres and key major institutions
3G coverage and Fibre Routes
Broadband & 3G Options considered• Cover all gap area projects with UMTS900 3G base stations
– Maximise revenues - offer broadband, incl. schools & institutions Not recommended for new areas for several technical & user reasons
• Upgrade 2G served areas – USF finance the upgrade of priority 2G sites to 3G throughout the country
(using 900 MHz on a national scale)• Include telecentres and connect schools & Huduma centres within range
Not recommended to “drive” this market except in specific instances after Year 1
• A national demand-driven approachGear broadband advance to a schools connectivity programNational gap - educate and assist the emerging generation to become more
IT literateLeverage the project for public access & capacity building
24
2. Schools Broadband connectivity Project
The public system:• 22,000 primary schools
18,000 electrified Many communities preparing lab
facilities Some teachers trained in ICT
integration in all schools
Laptop initiative upcoming
• 7,000 secondary schools 90% electrified 3-4,000 have computers Computer studies program
examinable at Form 4 Many ICT trained teachers
Situation with connectivity• Very few schools connected
• Other operators have small sized CSR initiatives
• The environment for USF to support progressive connection of schools is in place, while MoICT / ICT Authority role also strategic
Reasons for USF Schools Connectivity Projects ICT capacity in schools – upcoming generation – biggest
potential impact on country’s economy
For Kenya’s digital aspirations to thrive - school connectivity & integrating ICT into education – the gap transcends geography
Demand stimulation among future users of ICT - broadband market still expanding
Internet readiness – the ecosystem is developing with electrification, computer studies curriculum, teacher ICT integration training & the laptop initiative
But also allows more industry players to participate
The USF Educational Broadband Strategy
• Focus on secondary schools & tertiary colleges below university level– Primary school e-learning initiative already supported by Safaricom and Airtel
• Define the conditions for Internet connectivity readiness1. Connection to the National Grid2. Existing ICT facilities – e.g., secure computer lab with min. 10 computers3. ICT specialist teacher or support staff4. Active support of KCSE Computer studies curriculum
• First year Schools broadband project to connect 1,000 schools in Kenya1. Controlled access to Internet and to KICD Content “Kenya Educational Cloud”2. Cloud access via an education portal3. Training and Help-desk support4. CAPEX and OPEX for 3-4 years 5. Innovative solutions to be solicited through bidding lots
Budget for Year 1 USF School Connectivity Project• All counties – with Min. of Ed. select
minimum of two demonstration schools from each county– Based on readiness selection
criteria
• Educational portal - gateway into approved educational resource content
• Expert Help Desk - IT specialists
• Teacher ICT and Internet training for the participating schools, – Or candidate schools demonstrate
already meet min. capacity criteria;
• Competition - All network infrastructure and last mile access provided competitively under USF tenders
School Broadband Connectivity Project Approx. (KES M)
Year 1 Year 2 TotalDetails CAPE
XRecurrent
School ICT Infrastructure
420 80
80 580
Last Mile costsInternational capacitySchools Portal costICT Capacity developmentNetwork operationsMonitoring & EvaluationSubtotalGrand total 500 80 580
The Authority has in FY 2016/17 allocated Ksh 1.5 billion from the Universal Service Fund to support; Support roll-out of Voice Infrastructure projects in
approximately 214 sub-locations areas without voice services (Kshs 1 billion)
Support Education Internet Connectivity in 1,000 secondary schools and tertiary institutions to be selected by the Ministry of Education Science and Technology (Kshs 0.5 Billion).
NB: Award will be through competitive tendering process
Summary of USF Projects FY 2016/17
USF Projects Implementation Plan
Final Bidding Lot preparationCommence
Bid Submissions
Bid Evaluations
Subsidy awards
contracts
USF Service Contracts
signed
ICTs Access Final Report
Industry Workshop
USF Issue Bidding
Documents
Pre-Bid Meeting
Stakeholders Report / Industry
Workshop
2016 29-Feb 25-April 2-Jun 26-Jun 5-July 18-Jul 15-Aug 29-Aug 26-Sept
Prepare Bidding
Documents
Approval & Confirmation
Thank you!
Q & A