Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS
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Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA
description
Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. MDL. Total Variance. Clim. OBS. Diff. More > 1. than < 1. DML. ENSO DJFs. NEUT DJFs. OBS. DIFF. More Negative. More Positive. MDL. NEUT DJFs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS
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Climate Variability and
Potential Predictabilityin CFS
Wilbur Y. Chen
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
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Clim TotalVariance
Diff
MDL
OBS
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More > 1. than < 1.
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DML
OBS
DIFF
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
MorePositive
More Negative
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MDL
OBS
Ratio
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
More
>> 1.
Less > 1.
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A
B
A
B
MDL VAR of
ENS Means
Versus
ENS Spreads
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VAR of ENS Means
Var of ENSSpreads
Neutral DJFs
ENSO DJFs
Diff
MDL Behavior
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MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO
More < 1.
More > 1.
Neut
ENSO
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WarmDJFs
Cold DJFs
DIFF
VAR of ENSMeans
VAR of ENSSpreads
MorePosit
MoreNegat
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Potential Predictability
VAR of Clim Signal------------------------------------Total VAR (Signal+noise)
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ENSODJFs
NeutDJFs
Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut
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Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold