CLIMATE SMART LAND USE

Obstacles and opportunities for mitigation and

adaptation

Saskia Visser, Alterra, Wageningen UR; Climate KIC meeting,

Utrecht, June, 2015

Outline

Trends and challenges

Emissions from agriculture, their origin

Variance of productivity and emissions in EU; opportunity for

efficiency gains?

Climate change; challenges and opportunities

Mitigation efforts and adaptation opportunities; some

examples

The Climate Kic solution: The CSA Booster

Trends (selected) .....

Agriculture to meet twin challenge of feeding more people with

higher demand for meat and high-calorie diets and

simultaneously minimize its global environmental impacts

● Search for higher contribution from biomass to renewable energy with low ecosystem impact

● More and more critical attitudes among consumers

● Shifts in agro-ecosystems induced by climate change

Need for changes in agriculture and our food system

Challenges;

towards Climate Smart Land Use

Define and implement action before problems have started to occur or surface

- need for strong storytelling and valid(ated) projections

Promote and finance actions on emission reduction schemes with economic

benefit and competitive advantages and refrain from legislative actions -

sticks and carrots discussion

Food is both a local and global production platform. When is local better and

how do we recognize that?

Know what we eat: How much do we buy and eat? And waste and recycle?

What do we buy and eat? Are we aware of the impact?

Sources of GHG from agriculture

Emissions per product: major differences!

Plant food

Animal food

Lesschen et al., 2013

On variability: comparison of pilot farms in 10

EU countries – no single solution/golden bullet

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Milk

pro

du

ctio

n in

kg

/ha

Milk production in kg/cow

Annual milk production in 2011 per cow and ha

BF

BWFB

FL

FN

GE

IN

IR

Dairyman project 2009-2013

10 EU MSs & Pilot farms - GHG emissions

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BF BW FB FL FN GE NI IR LU NL

To

tal G

HG

pe

r to

n m

ilk

(k

g C

O2

-eq

)

To

tal G

HG

pe

r h

a (

kg

CO

2-e

q)

Total GHG per ha Total GHG per ton milk

Dairyman project 2009-2013

Climate Challenges and opportunities

Climate change prospects

10 Source: Climate change projections for Europe based on an ensemble of

regional climate model simulations provided by the EURO-CORDEX

initiative

Climate change (will) affect(s) livestock

sector

IPCC AR5:

“High temperature and air humidity

during breeding increased cattle

mortality risk by 60% in Italy

(Crescio et al., 2010)”.

“Climate change may adversely

affect dairy production in Southern

Europe because of heat stress in

lactating cows [medium confidence]

[23.4.2]’.

Mean relative changes in

water-limited crop yield

simulated by the

ClimateCrop model for

the 2050s compared

with 1961–1990 for 12

different climate models

projections under the

A1B emission scenario

Water availability for irrigation

Mitigation (and adaptation options)

Land use and change: adaptation & mitigation

RIVM: GJ vd Born et al. 2003

GHG balance in peat meadow area

UNEP study “Drawing down N2O”

Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)

Review possible strategies for less GHG

Food chain analysis

Scenario analysis: using the top-down approach model of Eric Davidson (lead author of Chapter 3 of the UNEP study)

5R-strategy to increase resource use efficiency

Incentives & technologies for

1. Reduce losses, from the whole food chain

2. Reuse and recycle nutrient elements

3. Reduce and replace inputs, where possible

4. Recovery and recycle elements from wastes

5. Redefining systems, where needed

Sutton et al., 2013

Mitigation strategies work: N2O emissions in 2030

and 2050 from 5 coherent packages of measures

Scenario 2030 2050

Business as usual (BAU) 6.4 7.5

1. Improved Crop production 5.7 6.3

2. (1) + Improved animal production 5.4 5.6

3. (1,2) + Improved manure mngmt 5.0 4.8

4. (1,2,3) + Improved food utilization 4.6 4.1

5. (1,2,3,4) + Less animal protein 4.1 3.3

Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (submitted to Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)

Italy

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0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

Poland

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

Spain

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

Scotland

-0.010

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

Denmark

0.000

0.010

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0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

Bulgaria

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0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG

Mit

igati

on

po

ten

tial (%

of

SO

C s

tock)

PICCMAT: strong EU regional differences

Climate change and adaptation

Impact depends on vulnerability of nature and agricultural (soil and water) systems

Technological solutions (soilless food, less fossil energy, biobased and bioenergy) are not always acceptable to the public

Barriers for adoption of CSA Solutions?

Climate-Smart Agriculture Booster

A European business solution to climate change

CSA Booster Team - March 2015

What does CSA Booster do?

Connecting providers and users of CSA solutions to European networks and value chains

Providing science-based quality stamps and certification

Focus on dairy/meat and horticultural fruit sectors

Starting in the Netherlands, France, UK, Switzerland and Italy

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For whom?

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Food industries : secure supply of agricultural products; reducing their climate impact on the food value chain

Farmer associations and agri-cooperatives interested to learn from experiences in other European countries

Technology and service providers: finding customers and investors in Europe; demonstration proof

Policy makers: stakeholder input for policy design, policy assessment

Our Service Modules

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• European wide Solution Broker for unique portfolio of innovative CSA solutions.

1. CSA Solution Hub

• Quantification and verification of the impact of CSA solutions

2. CSA Impact Assessment and Labelling

• Aids policymakers to implement Rural Development Plans in context of CAP and provide advice to solution providers and users.

3. CSA Policy Hub

• Supports solution developers to develop business models, provides access to CSA Partner Network and investors.

4. CSA Business Developer and Market Connection Hub

• Provides education, support and training to farmers/end-users and enables feedback to solution providers.

5. CSA Education, Training & Co-creation Forum

• Seeks alternative supply chain designs to increase climate benefits both upstream and downstream.

6. CSA Supply Chain & Circular Economy Developer

Where to find the CSA Booster?

www.csabooster.eu

Video: http://www.csabooster.eu/csa-booster-video

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Interested???

What is your CSA SOLUTION??

Join the CSA Booster Network!

Broad Science Conclusions

Climate change calls for a productive, resilient agricultural

sector with minimal GHG emissions

Regional variance may offer great opportunity for efficiency

gains

Region specific solutions work

Mitigation efforts strategy preferred over individual measures

Innovative technological solutions are available, yet only partly

used

Investments needed in education, training, demonstration and

development of site- and region specific technologies