Climate Smart Agriculture: What, Why, and How Udall.pdfRotary Club in 1957 about climate change....
Transcript of Climate Smart Agriculture: What, Why, and How Udall.pdfRotary Club in 1957 about climate change....
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Climate Smart Agriculture: What, Why, and How
Brad UdallSenior ScientistColorado Water Institute
Southern Rocky Mountain Ag ConferenceMonte Vista, Colorado
February 6 , 2019
The Three Pillars of Climate Smart Agriculture
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Talk Outline
• Climate Events of 2018• Colorado Agriculture Overview• Climate Smart Agriculture: Why and
What• Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities to Ag• Soil Carbon and Health• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Ag• Ending Comments• Resources
You can put climate change on a t-shirt!
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Nature, 2018
1. Continued High Emissions2. Cleaner Air3. Ocean Circulations
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• 0.8° C warming already• 1.5° C warming would be damaging• 2.0° C could approach intolerable in places
• Current Promises to cut emissions lead to 3.5 ° C by 2100
• To avoid 1.5°C• Unprecedented actions needed• Steep Downward emissions by 2030• No historical analog to needed actions
• Takeaway 1: every 0.1° C warming is important. There is no ‘cliff’ beyond which is it ‘too late to act.’
• Takeaway 2: Focus on temperature obscures the most important goal. We must get to net 0 emissions as soon as possible. Negative emissions will become important.
IPCC Special Report on Impacts of 1.5° C WarmingOctober 7, 2018
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3 years in the making400 co-authors29 Chapters
4th National Climate AssessmentNovember 23, 2018
4 Major Findings (of 12)
• Impacts already being felt• Fires, Floods, Droughts, Hurricanes
• Future impacts will disrupt many areas of life
• Without substantial and sustained mitigation and adaptation, will cause growing losses to infrastructure, property and impede economic growth
• Quality and Quantity of water changing
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Lowest Precipitation on Record 4 Corners Area Warmest Temps on Record in Many Parts of the State
2018 was a brutal year for Colorado Agriculture
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10 Years without 700 kaf
20 years without 800 kaf
Source: Cleave Simpson
285 kaf in 2018, estimated
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Source: Cleave Simpson
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Colorado Agriculture
• Important to Colorado• 100% of Economy in many places• Huge Amenity Values elsewhere
• Climate Challenges• Too Much Water• Too Little Water• Heat• Fires• Odd Weather Patterns
• US Ag is ~10% of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions• Methane• Nitrous Oxide• Some CO2 $8B / Year in Cash Receipts all Ag Products
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Colorado Ag Products by Location
HaySheep/LambsCattleWheatDairyDry BeansVegetablesGrass SeedsNurseryEggsSilageSugar Beets
BarleySunflowersMilletCornHogs and PigsSorghumOatsRyeOther GrainsPotatoesApplesPeaches
San Luis Valley: Wheat, Potatoes, Barley, Cattle, AlfalfaCarrots, lettuce, spinach, quinoa, cover crops, rye, canola, irrigated forage
Source: Colorado Foundation for Agriculture
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Climate Smart Agriculture
• What is it?• A framework for ag to handle/manage climate
change
• ~ 40% of the land surface
• ~ 20% of Emissions worldwide, ~10% US
• Adopted by CSU ~2016
• Very much a work in progress
• 3 Pillars1. Sustainable Intensification
Grow more food on same land base
9B people in 2050, 11B in 2100
2. Adaptation to climate change
TechnologyFarm Production PracticesFarm Financial Management Govt Programs & Insurance
3. Mitigation (Reduction) of Greenhouse Gasses
2016 Colorado Water Institute Newsletter
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Why Climate Smart Agriculture at CSU?
• 2016 Extension Listening Sessions• Pueblo, Akron, Adams County• Total of ~30 Agents
• Findings• Producers and Agents aware of
climatic changes• But great reluctance to tie these
changes to human actions• Agents want more information• Support for new CSU Climate
Smart Ag Initiative
1.5° F warming over 60 years
Alamosa Airport Average Temperature1948-2018
Alamosa temperature increase mirrors US and Worldwide increase
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CSU CSA Activities• CSA Web Page
• Interface with Governor’s Staff• Colorado Department of Agriculture
• USDA Climate Hub Activities• E.g., GrassCast• Workshops
• Outreach• Western Dairy, Farm Bureau, Wheat
Growers, Farm Show, etc
• Newsletters
• Online Courses
• Best Management Practices
• Conferences
• Drought Activities
CSU’s CSA Webpage
Secretary Vilsack at CSU CSA Event
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USDA Climate Hubs
Established 2013 by Sec. Vilsack
Led by:ARSUSFS
With help from USDA Agencies:APHISNRCSFSARMA
Mission:
Develop and Deliver science-based regionally specific information and technology that enables climate-informed decision making
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Danelle Peck
Colorado is in Northern Plains Region but Southwest and Southern Plains Hub may also be useful
Windy Kelley
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Overview Document for the Northern Plains Climate Hub
Climate OverviewPast and Future
Cropping and Grazing SystemsRisksVulnerabilitiesAdaptation Strategies
Greenhouse Gasses Emissions Profile and Mitigation Opportunities
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Climate-Smart Ag Newsletter - 2016
Ralph Parshall’s speech to the Rotary Club in 1957 about climate change
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Reagan Waskom & Dennis OjimaArticle
Short, Simple Introduction to Ag Impacts and Adaptation Opportunities
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Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study
2014 CSU + CU Study+ Colorado Energy Office
Climate Overview
Sectors• Ecosystems• Public Health• Energy• Water• Transportation• Agriculture• Recreation
Type of CropClimate Impact Key Vulnerability
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TechnologyNew cultivarsWeather and Climate InformationWater Management Innovations
Government Programs and InsuranceAg Subsidy and Price Support ProgramsPrivate Insurance
Farm Production PracticesDiversify crop and livestock typesAlternative Fallow and TillageIrrigationTiming of Operations (plant/harvest)
Farm Financial ManagementCrop Insurance
Agricultural Adaptation Options
Malcolm et al, 2012
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Climate Variability
Soil Degradation
Pests
Droughts
Floods
Govt Policy
Economic (e.g. Carbon Markets)
Consumer Behavior (diets)
Perception of Risk
Farm ProductionPractices
Farm Financial Management
Farm Infrastructure
Technological Developments
Govt Programs and Insurance
Key Drivers Adaptation Strategies
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Alternatives to Permanent Fallowing
• Provide a Literature Review of what we know about• Deficit Irrigation• Rotational Fallowing• Crop Switching• Irrigation Efficiency
• Colorado River Basin Focus• Upper Basin Agriculture very different from Lower
Basin
• Purpose: • Provide Information to policy makers, NGOs,
producers and others on alternatives to permanent fallowing
• CSU not advocates for/against
• Meetings held• Grand Junction • Tucson• Washington, DC
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Contributions to CO2 increases from 1870 “Pre-Industrial” to 2014
Key contributors to the increase:
Land Use: = 27 %
Coal = 35 %Oil = 26 %Gas = 11 %
Agricultural Contribution to Atmospheric C02 Increases
35%
26%
11%
27%
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Soil Carbon / Health
• ”Living Epidermis of the Planet”
• Plants, Animals, Microbes in soil• Largest Temporary Storage of Water• $4T in agricultural products yearly
• Huge, Dynamic Carbon Reservoir• 2-4x size of atmospheric carbon• critical part of carbon cycle
• Cultivation ‘ignited’ vast store of carbon• ~ 130 Billion Tons of Carbon Lost• = 25% of total emissions since 1850
• Soils have been fundamentally altered• ‘Domesticated’ soils
• Up until mid-20th century biomass burning and cultivation carbon loss exceeded fossil fuel emissions
C02 Sources (above 0) and Sinks (below 0)
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Soil Carbon / Health• Soil Carbon
• 0.5 to 4% naturally• helps to holds water• provides nutrients from decomposition• provides structure to soil
• Original Loss from Northern areas, now equator
• Possible to recover some of lost carbon• 1.3 GtC/year max (15% total GHG
emissions)• Difficulties
• Measurement, retaining SOC• Erosion is big problem
• water is biggest culprit but also wind• with cover crop, less erosion possible• water preferentially moves lightest,
carbon-rich top soil
Crop and Grazing Areas
Soil Carbon Loss – Black=no data
LossGain
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Soil Health Benefits• Science not always clear that increased soil
carbon will provide a yield benefit• Fertilizer can offset low soil carbon
• But clear yield benefits to• Tubers• Cereals
• Other Benefits• Soil structure• Water holding • Micro nutrients• Carbon sequestration
• How to increase soil carbon ?• Less tillage• Leave residues on surface• Cover crops (where water)• Crops with more roots (new crops?)
• grasses especially good• Improved crop rotations• Amendments/Biochar Paustian et al., 2016
Climate Smart Practices can reduce GHG emissions and improve soil health
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Climate Smart Agriculture: GHG Mitigation
• US Agriculture GHGs are ~10% of US Total Emissions
• USDA Building Blocks were part of US Paris Pledge to reduce GHGs
• Built on existing NRCS programs
• Status Unknown
Source: CSU Climate Smart Agriculture Newsletter
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Chambers et al., 2016
Existing NRCS Conservation Practices that build soil carbon
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Chambers et al., 2016
Existing NRCS Conservation Practices that build soil carbon
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Chambers et al., 2016
Proposal for US to join 4 Parts per Thousand Global Soil Initiative
If fully implemented, practices would offset 50% of US Ag GHG emissions
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Ag Best Management Practices Compilation
• CSU Professor Jim Ippolito lead
• Compiling list of BMPs for Ag • Ranching – Casey Shawver
• Field Crops – Dustin Diaz
• Rollout• Summer 2019
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Climate Smart Ag Online Courses
• Target: Extension Agents and Producers
• Format: Short Mini-courses
• Topics• Colorado’s Climate - Doesken
• Climate Change Basics - Denning
• Climate Change and the Water Cycle – Udall
• Agriculture Impacts and Adaptation - Udall
• Agricultural GHG Mitigation - Paustian
• Climate Change Myths – Udall
• Late Spring 2019 Rollout
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Climate Smart Ag Course Format
• Course composed of 5-12 ‘modules’ or ‘weeks’
• Each Module• Video Lecture (5-10 minutes)• Reading(s) (30-45 minutes)• Possible Quiz• Total Time each Module under 1
hour• Short Test
• End of Course Exam• ~20 Questions
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Closing Thoughts• Climate Change is here, and it is a really big deal
• San Luis Valley will have higher temperatures and less water
• Agriculture is both…• a cause of climate change and,• is impacted by climate change
• Agriculture can also help solve climate change• By reducing GHG emissions (N20, Methane especially)• By pulling Carbon (CO2) out of the air
• Soil Health has a role• Adaptation Role – Yield, Structure, Water Holding, Nutrients• Can help with sequestering carbon, too
• CSU has a duty to help Colorado Agriculture…• Adapt to the coming changes• Reduce Ag’s impact on climate change
• Climate Smart Agriculture is CSU’s first, tentative steps to help• Colorado Ag is Diverse, Complicated• Education is the first step, but much more needed• But we can’t do it alone• We need your help, too
National Climate Assessment, 2018
San Luis Valley will see less precipitation
2050
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References
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Journal Articles• Lal, et al, 2015, Carbon Sequestration in Soil
• Amundson et al., 2015 Soil and Human Security in the 21st Century
• Chabbi et al., 2017, Aligning Agriculture and Climate Policy
• Rumpel, et al., 2018, Put more carbon in soils to meet Paris climate pledges
• Sanderman et al., 2017, Soil Carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use
• Paustian et al., 2016, Climate-smart soils
• Smith 2008
• NAS, 2018, Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda
• Chambers et al., 2016, Soil carbon sequestration potential of US croplands and grasslands: Implementing the 4 per Thousand Initiative
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Modules - Climate Change and the Water Cycle
1. Course Intro (and Introduction to Climate Smart Agriculture)
2. Introduction to the Water Cycle
3. Changes in Historical Air Temperature
4. Changes in Historical Precipitation
5. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Trends
6. Changes in Water Demands
7. Changes in Snowpack Amounts and Runoff Timing
8. River Basin Flow Projections
9. Changes in Water Quality
10. Changes in Floods and Droughts
11. Changes in Water Management
12. Wrap Up