Climate Shock - Global Risk Institute · It’s not over ‘til the fat tail zings Rapidly...
Transcript of Climate Shock - Global Risk Institute · It’s not over ‘til the fat tail zings Rapidly...
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SUMMIT 2017GLOBAL RISK INSTITUTE
PRESENTATION BY:
Gernot WagnerCo-Director, Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program and Research Associate, Harvard University
Climate Shock
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$40
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>>$40
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1.5 – 4.5°C
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* Charney et al (1979)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (1990)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (1990, 1992)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (1990, 1992, 1995)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (1990, 1992, 1995, 2001)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (2007)
2.0 – 4.5°C
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* IPCC (2013)
1.5 – 4.5°C
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Source: Meinshausen et al (2009)
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Source: Meinshausen et al (2009)
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IPCC’s “likely” range 1.5-4.5°C ‘Heavy-tailed’ climate sensitivity calibration using log-normal, mirroring effects of Roe-Baker
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
Equal mass below and above “likely” range likely conservative assumption
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Final temperatures resulting in large probability of ‘tail event’IEA’s “New Policies Scenario” reaches 700 ppm by 2100
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
>10% probability of final temperatures exceeding 6°C
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It’s not over ‘til the fat tail zingsRapidly increasing probability of extreme final temperatures
Source: Wagner & Weitzman’s Climate Shock (2015)
CO2e (ppm) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Median Δ°C 1.3°C 1.8°C 2.2°C 2.5°C 2.7°C 3.2°C 3.4°C 3.7°C 3.9°C
Prob >6°C 0.04% 0.3% 1.2% 3% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17%
Analysis beyond standard benefit-cost analysis (and, thus, Social Cost)?
By 2100, per IEA’s
“New Policies Scenario”
10x10x
10x<1.5x
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>>$40
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Gernot [email protected]
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CO2
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CO2
SO2
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CO2
SO2
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CO2
SO2
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Complement, not substitute
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Complement, not substitute
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Complement, not substitute
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Gernot [email protected]