CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA National Weather Service Climate Services Marina Timofeyeva...
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CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
National Weather Service National Weather Service Climate ServicesClimate Services
Marina Timofeyeva
PaCIS 2010 Implementation Planning Workshop
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
NWS Climate Services Mission
• NWS: provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure....
• CSD: Ensure NWS has the capacity to develop and deliver the best climate products and services through policy, planning, data stewardship, integration of research and services, training, education, and outreach in collaboration with other NOAA offices, partners, and users
• CPC: Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Policy and Planning
• Directives – 10-10 Series www.weather.gov/directives o 2009 update clarified roles
and responsibilities for all NWS climate services providers
• Operations Documento Third edition drafted and in
process of coordination
• Coordination with NCS
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
User Requirements
• Local Climate Directory
• Annual Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop
• Periodic Customer Satisfaction Surveys
• Coordination with partners: state climatologists and RCC
• Development of new SMART metrics for climate products
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Needs and Requirements
• “Past weather” data
• Climate guidance to national and local decision makers
• Information of climate variability and change physical mechanisms, predictability, predictions, and impacts
• Timely, continuous and reliable climate data
• Timely, continuous and reliable national and local climate observations, monitoring and forecast products
• Outreach activities, materials and trained staff
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Programs and Initiatives
• National Climate Programs and Initiativeso Monitoring climate variability - Lukeo Climate assessments and diagnostic discussions - Lukeo Climate forecasts - Lukeo Climate Test Bed
• Regional and Local Climate Programs and Initiativeso Bridging climate user needs and product requirementso Climate observing system and data recordso Local climate data and forecast productso Climate education and outreacho Training climate services staff and technical users
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Climate Test Bed• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research
communities
Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the
climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the
climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program
Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)
• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products
• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program
AOLOI
ProposalNCEP Collaborator
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h T
op
ics
AOLOI
ProposalNCEP Collaborator
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h T
op
ics
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Product Suite and Services:Local
Public interactive access to ““past weather
• NOAA Online Weather Data (NOWdata): 9 products, 3900 sites, 9 variables, 3 time periods
• Other online data products:o Last 3 month daily datao Last 5 year monthly/dailyo This year record eventso Last year monthly site, regional
and state summaries
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Product Suite and Services:Local
NWS local climate services support:• Standardized local offices web site:
www.weather.gov/climate • Online data stewardship tools: xmACIS, Datzilla,
ThredEx, etc.• Local Climate Forecast Products (L3MTO)
online package and display• Outreach materials: factsheets, brochures,
standard presentations, etc.• Defining a process of transition from climate
user need to NWS climate product requirements
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Product Suite and Services:Local
Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks:
• Local information• Multiple user centric
formats• Dynamic text
interpretation• Benefits and limitations• Long term forecast
evaluation • Trained staff support
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Need for Local Climate Products2009 Customer Satisfaction Survey
14%No
86%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a Local 3-Month Precipitation
Outlook%
16%No
84%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a local climate change product displaying rate of
change in different climate variables%
12%No
88%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a 3-Month Outlook of El Nino/La Nina impacts on local
climate variables%
Additional sites for Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook:Columbus, NE. De Witt, Iowa
Kalamazoo, MILompoc, CA
Please cover NE Oregon. South America locations
14%No
86%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a Local 3-Month Precipitation
Outlook%
16%No
84%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a local climate change product displaying rate of
change in different climate variables%
12%No
88%Yes
Useful if NWS offered a 3-Month Outlook of El Nino/La Nina impacts on local
climate variables%
Additional sites for Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook:Columbus, NE. De Witt, Iowa
Kalamazoo, MILompoc, CA
Please cover NE Oregon. South America locations
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Capacity Building for Local Climate Services - LCAT
Provides NOAA standard methodologies for climate analysis (such as trend, composites, principal statistical, and time series analysis) for:
• Assisting and developing climate expertise at local level
• Expanding suite of NOAA climate products
• Engaging local climate services staff in NOAA climate analysis activities
• Responding to local customer inquiries on climate variability and change local impacts
• Providing initial data tests to formulate local user needs for climate products to national climate centers (NESDIS/NCDC, NWS/CPC, OAR/ESRL)
Climate Division Stations
45
50
55
60
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Data Trend
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Training
• Climate Services Training includes 3 courseso Special PR training course
• ~30 online distance learning modules
• NETS coordination
• Pilot applications for training technical user groups:o 3 pilots accomplished o 1 in development
http://www.weather.gov/om/csd/pds/index.shtml
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Education
• Climate Literacy
• Partnership with Smithsonian Institution Natural History Museum
• Science of the Sphere
• Annual event at the National Teachers Association meeting
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Outreach
• Field guidance for local outreach activitieso Local Climate Information hubso Trusted source for climate
informationo Experienced in communicating
science to public
• Support materials- standard presentations, factsheets, etc.
• Outreach to Professional Meteorology and Geophysical Communities
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Climate Test Bed
• So-far 3 successful projects• 15 ongoing projects• Focus area:
o CFS Improvements – CFSv3 [2 projects]o Multi-Model Ensembles – intra-seasonal to inter-
annual scale [5 projects]o Climate Forecast Products [8 projects]
• Development of an Extended and Long-range Precipitation Prediction System over the Pacific Islands – Annamalai, CPC
o Seminar Series http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb
CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA
Process for Transitioning Research into Operations
Prototype is developed internally by science and outreach experts
Informal WFO internal review, questionnaire of selected partners & customers
Experimental product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form
Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions
Operational product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form
Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions
Adjustment
Adjustment
Adjustment
Multi-tiered Approach in Incorporating Users Feedback