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© Department of the Environment and Energy 2019

This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for the purposes of research, news reporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes, provided acknowledgement of the source is included. Major extracts may not be reproduced by any process without written permission of the publisher.

Prepared by Dr Tony Press, Dr Will Howard and Paul Mattiazzi as the NCSAC Committee Secretariat on behalf of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee.

GPO Box 787, Canberra ACT 2600

Tel +61 (0)2 6274 1111

Email: www.environment.gov.au/about-us/contact-us

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Foreword Climate change exacerbates risks inherent in the Australian climate and brings new ones, posing serious consequences for our economy, communities and environment. Across all sectors of the Australian economy, businesses, governments and communities are now assessing the risks and impacts arising from our changing climate.

Climate science allows us to anticipate and plan for new extremes and increased frequency of severe weather events such as heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, droughts and floods—which are so frequently part of Australian climate—and their

impacts on our unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change impacts flow through to our businesses and communities. Agriculture and mining are affected by water availability, floods and heatwaves. Much of our population and infrastructure is in coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and severe storms. Understanding our future climate allows for strategic investments in adaptation and infrastructure, and for businesses to actively manage risks.

Australia needs weather and climate information, models and tools that accurately reflect and describe our diverse country and our region. Timely and reliable weather and climate information underpins decisions in agriculture and mining; in transport, trade, and infrastructure; in defence and foreign aid; and in conservation and environmental protection. Climate science is the foundation of that information, bringing direct economic, social and environmental benefits to Australia.

An understanding of future climate risk is now essential for decision makers in business and government alike. High quality climate information allows us to

better prepare for and perhaps avoid some climate change impacts, while enabling us to benefit from potential opportunities. Investments in Australia’s climate

science capabilities will be key to achieving the best possible outcomes for Australia in this changing climate.

Climate science is a collaborative effort, bringing together many disciplines, organisations and scientists from all over the world. Australia draws on these global scientific resources for critical data, tools and research.

We reciprocate by contributing knowledge, sharing data and resources in our role as a leader in global and Southern Hemisphere climate research. Australia must continue to contribute to global scientific efforts in order to ensure valuable data and expertise continues to be shared with us.

Importantly, no other country can do the climate science that Australia needs. Australia’s national interests stretch from our Northern tropics to Antarctica and across three oceans. We must build on our capabilities and strengthen our capacity to respond to the challenges of future climate variability and change.

Australia’s climate research efforts must continue to manage the challenge of finite funding. Maximising the return on these investments requires us to take stock of our climate science capabilities, build on our research strengths and improve the coordination of scientific institutions

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and agencies to better support our long-term climate research. Australian climate research must also be better targeted to Australian needs and conditions, to build the models and tools to help business and Governments better understand and more effectively respond to the changes already locked into the climate system and the ones still to come.

As Chair of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee I have been privileged to experience the vast scope and complexity of Australia’s world-class climate research. This research is built on the work of an extraordinary community of scientists, researchers, technicians, programmers and communicators who provide the climate information that so much of our economy depends on.

The advice of the Committee is provided for the Government, industry and research community to take forward, and together build the climate science capacity that Australia needs to meet the significant and complex challenges presented by our changing climate.

Dr Katherine Woodthorpe AO FTSE FAICDChair National Climate Science Advisory Committee20 July 2019

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Table of ContentsForeword.......................................................................................................................................3

Executive Summary........................................................................................................................6

Strategic Actions...........................................................................................................................11

Chapter 1. Introduction................................................................................................................14

Chapter 2. Implications of Climate Change....................................................................................18

Chapter 3. Key Components of Australia’s Climate Research Effort...............................................25

3.1 Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure........................................................................25

3.2 Climate Process Studies.............................................................................................................31

3.3 Climate Modelling and Projections............................................................................................34

3.4 Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services.......................................................................................46

3.5 International Engagement and Dependencies...........................................................................53

3.6 Research Coordination and Funding..........................................................................................56

Appendix 1. Current initiatives in Australian climate science.........................................................60

Appendix 2. Global trends shaping Australian climate research....................................................65

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Executive Summary Australia’s climate is changing as a result of anthropogenic warming and will continue to change in the future. Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1°C since 1910 and this has led to an increased intensity and frequency of extreme heat events, longer fire seasons, warming and acidifying oceans and rising sea levels that amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges on coastal communities and infrastructure. Climate science and related disciplines contribute to identifying risks and opportunities from these changes that enable informed decision-making and adaptation. Australia’s community and business leaders need information to manage the risks from our changing climate. This information should be at scales and timeframes relevant to informing policy and investment decisions at local and regional levels.

The vision of this document is of an Australia prepared for the decades ahead, informed by robust climate science and projections that are integrated into decision making across all sectors of society and the economy.

Our nation’s prosperity and security depends on our ability to anticipate, manage and prevent the economic, social and environmental impacts of climate change and variability on Australia and our region—from the short term and through to the end of the century and beyond. This science effort is the basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin our prosperity and wellbeing. The actions outlined in this document identify the steps to enhance, coordinate and deliver climate science for Australia’s benefit.

There are six essential elements to our climate science effort, all of which are needed for decision makers to have the information they need to understand climate change and manage its risks and impacts.

1. Observations (climate data, analysis and infrastructure)Observations, and the infrastructure that allows this data to be collected, stored and utilised is fundamental to our national climate science capability. Our understanding of climate processes, how they work and affect our weather and how they are changing, is built on long-term, consistent records of the behaviour of the atmosphere, land surface, oceans and cryosphere—from the tropics to Antarctica.

Our observational network is comprehensive. Atmospheric composition and air quality information is drawn from facilities like the BoM-CSIRO Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station. Ocean temperature, current, carbon and salinity data are obtained by the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) and our research vessels including RV Aurora Australis and Investigator. Uptake and release of carbon from the land are measured by the OzFlux Facility within the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). Extensive weather and climate data are collected by the Bureau of Meteorology and there are also essential data sets that are internationally-sourced, particularly remote sensing information covering all aspects of the Australian environment.

A longer-term context for our observational data is informed by paleoclimate data generated from sources such as ice cores drilled by the Australian Antarctic Division, tree rings and corals. Analysis of this data enables us to understand the drivers of our weather and climate, track trends and changes, and build and test climate models that can simulate the past and predict future change. Sustaining

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key climate observations and identifying critical gaps and the impact of these gaps are priorities. It is equally important to ensure these data are properly curated, discoverable and accessible. This will require ongoing support for national facilities such as the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI).

2. Climate Process StudiesClimate process studies combine measurement, theory and modelling to build a functional understanding of processes, phenomena and modes of variability that affect climate. These include processes such as cloud formation, air-sea gas exchange and sea-ice formation; and phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole that strongly affect Australia’s weather and climate and which are influenced by anthropogenic climate change. This understanding is incorporated into climate models to provide greater predictive ability. However there remain knowledge gaps in key processes that act as barriers to greater confidence and insight into our changing climate, in turn affecting the confidence of our decision-making.

Improving our understanding of climate processes gives us greater ability to determine the relative influences of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on extreme weather and climate events. This in turn allows us to know the climate risks, the data we need to collect, and the phenomena we need to better understand.

Process studies are conducted through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, individual universities and other research institutions. Further research is undertaken through agencies and collaborative programs such as Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and Australian Antarctic Division, the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership. We need to ensure there is collaboration and coordination of efforts to make the best progress in this research.

3. Climate Modelling and Projections Australia’s governments, businesses and communities need to plan for and effectively manage the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability in coming decades. This will require high-quality data and services informed by scientifically-credible climate change projections, integrated into decision-making processes. To ensure we have scientifically robust information Australia needs global, regional and local projections at time scales of months, years, decades and centuries. Some of this knowledge is gained using numerical models such as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS). ACCESS is a fully coupled Earth system model capability developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology along with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), a partnership of the University of New South Wales, Monash University, the Australian National University, the University of Melbourne, and the University of Tasmania.

Model suites such as ACCESS simulate changes in climate by linking models of the ocean, atmosphere, sea-ice, land surface, greenhouse gas emissions, global carbon cycle and chemistry and aerosols. ACCESS allows us to simulate major changes in the Earth's climate over decades-to-centuries, and to make short and medium-range weather forecasts, seasonal predictions for particular regions and century-scale climate projections.

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While there are many coupled Earth system models around the world, understanding and managing climate risks requires that we maintain a distinctly Australian modelling capability and focus. Australia’s land and vegetation is unique, and only a model that captures key ecosystem processes can simulate some of the climate impacts that Australia will experience. Australia’s ACCESS is the only global climate and Earth system model developed and run in the Southern Hemisphere. ACCESS has provided model submissions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 and the IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessments. This builds on almost three decades of Australian investment in global climate model development and contribution to all IPCC Assessment reports.

The Government has made a significant investment at CSIRO to develop and deliver a decadal forecasting capability, with the vision of incorporating this into ACCESS. Continued close collaboration between CSIRO and BoM, supported by the universities is needed to maintain and develop the seamless forecasting capability of ACCESS from sub-daily to multi-decadal and century time scales. A key priority is the further development of ACCESS to provide regional and local climate projections (called climate downscaling). This capability will allow for a nationally coordinated approach for climate downscaling and analysis, complementing the existing regional climate model capability at CSIRO, in the university sector and through the states and territories. The ACCESS Scoping Study, initiated under the auspices of the Department of Education with the objective of ‘Enhancing the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator’ within the National Research Infrastructure framework, is a significant development towards achieving these goals.

A nationally consistent understanding of projected climate changes and impacts across Australia is needed for business and government to assess and manage their risks. Information needs to be at spatial and temporal scales relevant for decision-making, and allow for continuous risk assessment for businesses who operate across state borders and jurisdictions (e.g. electricity transmission network companies). Australia has the opportunity to develop a new generation of scientifically robust climate projections based on the synthesis of simulations from multiple global climate models. This is made possible through our participation in the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). When combined with regional climate models developed and used by CSIRO and universities, high-resolution regional projections can be generated. Extensive end-user engagement and communication of the projections will also be essential for their utilisation.

4. Climate Risk, Adaptation and ServicesA strong and credible Australian climate research capability is fundamentally important to impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments. This is clearly demonstrated by the recent surge in demand for climate change information across public, private, environmental and financial services sectors. As the impacts of climate change emerge more clearly in Australia and the world, company directors and other decision makers are responding to their legal requirements to manage climate risks effectively. The ability to understand and manage climate risks depends in part on high quality climate science information delivered in forms that are accessible to users and tailored to their needs. This puts an emphasis on researchers and communicators working with users to understand their needs. There is also a strong need from end users for research and analysis supporting disaster risk reduction, both nationally and regionally. Meeting these needs poses both a challenge and an opportunity for Australia’s climate scientists. Inadequate information can lead to the mispricing of assets and a misallocation of capital. Consequently, more financial decision makers are demanding improved information on the business risks and opportunities associated with climate change.

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Australia has a strong track record in delivering climate information through channels such as the Climate Change in Australia website and the outreach and engagement activities of organisations such as the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, state government agencies and universities. Australia’s states and territories are making important contributions to domestic and international climate knowledge. For example, the states and territories are applying the outputs of global climate models to produce detailed climate information at local scale. These local- and regional-scale climate projections allow state and local governments, businesses and communities to understand and prepare for climate change at the community level, including effects on water resources, agriculture, energy and coasts. Anticipating these effects helps decision makers maximise opportunities and manage risks from climate change.

As the demand for information on climate risks changes, Australia will need to change how it provides the science and datasets that inform decision-making. There is growing demand for the latest science information combined with an outreach and engagement capability that can tailor and communicate this information to decision makers, many of whom may not have previously had to manage or plan explicitly for climate change related risks. This critical ‘knowledge brokering’ element is vital to translate climate science into more useable information products suitable for integration with other risk management information used by these groups. A number of organizations currently provide some form of climate service. There are strong national benefits in providing a more coordinated, collaborative and diversified approach to climate services between researchers and agencies, designed with users and delivered to them in practical formats to encourage effective action for Australian businesses and communities.

5. International Engagement and DependenciesAustralia cannot go it alone on climate science. We are a significant investor in climate science and a major contributor to global science efforts, especially in the Southern Ocean, Antarctica and the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Our economy and research programs also receive significant benefits from the efforts of international agencies and research groups. The understanding we have now is built on decades of global collaboration between scientists and science agencies, and is reliant upon ongoing international investment and the sharing of knowledge, systems, tools and data. It is critical for Australia’s future well-being and prosperity that these collaborations continue.

Australia’s research efforts in our region allow us to contribute to global climate science and access vital data and information from other countries, including global climate model simulations undertaken by more than forty centres around the world through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Without this shared information and capability we cannot understand and anticipate how climate change will affect our country and our weather. Our investments in Southern Ocean and Antarctica research are vital to maintaining this critical information capability. This is recognised through the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership and the Australian Antarctic Science Strategic Plan.

We need to ensure that key international collaborations are maintained and strengthened so that we can continue to contribute to and benefit from the global effort to understand climate. This needs support across all levels, from individual scientists, research agencies, and different levels of government. Funding to facilitate engagement and formally sustain Australia’s involvement and contribution to key global programs, especially the World Climate Research Programme; the Global

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Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS), is in Australia’s long-term strategic interests.

6. Research Coordination and FundingOver the last 30 years, Australia has developed a world class climate science capability that is globally recognised for its contributions to scientific knowledge, and through the IPCC and other avenues, to public policy. Investments in the development of skills, research and operational infrastructure, and partnerships (like ACCESS, Centres of Excellence and our international collaborations) prepare us well for the challenges and opportunities of the future.

Sound governance, coordination and the efficient resourcing of contributing research agencies, programs and centres is integral to delivering useful climate science to decision makers and the public. Funding also needs to be sustainable and predictable as research needs are often complex and require long-term investments of time, financial and human resources and infrastructure. For large-scale and long-term climate research to be successful, interdependencies among programs supported by different agencies, portfolios and tiers of government need to be considered. From the public funding perspective, research has to be coordinated with investments directed towards the highest value research avenues so that national benefit is maximised. From a research perspective, the system needs to be structured to minimise the amount of time and energy expended to secure funding and support from multiple sources.

Australia’s world-class climate science programs are built on a valuable history of global collaboration and several decades of sustained investment by Commonwealth, state and territory and local governments. There is an opportunity to leverage even greater outcomes from these ongoing investments through improved cooperation, governance and coordination. To realize the ambition and objectives of this strategy, and in particular robust and timely climate science services for end users across the private and public sectors—enhanced partnerships will be required. These include partnerships between universities, research organizations and infrastructure facilities that together will deliver the multiple elements of the science program. Sustained investments in Australian climate science and international collaboration will continue to deliver strong economic and community benefits in coming years.

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Strategic Actions The areas identified for action that follow are designed to build on our current strengths, and to realise the full benefits of Australian climate research. The last action identified by the Committee recognises the need for it to transition from its current high-level strategic focus to a broader representation as a Climate Science Advisory Group with a focus on supporting implementation of the strategic actions.

Observations, Data, Analysis and InfrastructureAction 1) Convene a technical reference group to identify gaps in observation systems, data streams, their analysis and application with emphasis areas identified through engagement with climate information users.

1a) the technical reference group should report to the Advisory Group on gaps, risks, their implications, priorities and options by December 2019, with support from the Department of the Environment and Energy, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and the Department of Education.

Action 2) The Bureau of Meteorology, with support from CSIRO and research institutions, should prioritise projects to develop, enhance and maintain consistent high resolution climate datasets covering the Australian land mass and surrounding ocean regions including high resolution subdomains encompassing all capital cities and major regional population centres.

Climate Process StudiesAction 3) The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), in collaboration with research agencies and institutions, should identify significant gaps in understanding and areas of uncertainty in key climate processes affecting climate predictability and climate projections for Australia and surrounding regions.

3a) The CLEX report should also consider prioritisation and resourcing needed to address gaps in knowledge and research efforts in Australia over the next decade.

3b) CLEX should report its findings to the Advisory Group by December 2019.

Climate Modelling and Projections Action 4) ACCESS partners including the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and key universities should review and extend their collaborative effort to develop ACCESS as Australia’s national weather and climate model platform, in cooperation with our long-standing international partners.

4a) the principles to guide the ongoing collaboration for the ACCESS model should be defined and the governance and coordination arrangements improved. This could include consideration of negotiating a new formal collaborative agreement between the partners; and

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4b) this collaboration should align with the Scoping Study for the Optimisation of the ACCESS Model being led through the Department of Education and NCI secretariat, as part of the Australian Government Research Infrastructure Investment Plan.

Action 5) The NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and key partners should develop a plan by June 2020, for the program of next generation climate projections for Australia, including:

5a) undertaking further market research and stakeholder consultation to inform the work program;

5b) assessing and utilising data sets and modelling methods to use the inputs more effectively, for example, ensemble generation methods and constraints on projections approaches;

5c) coordinating new regional scale modelling and integration for use in national projections;

5e) significantly enhancing links to climate services and knowledge brokering to the diverse range of stakeholder groups.

Climate Risk, Adaptation and ServicesAction 6) The Advisory Group should consider the potential for the future integration of climate projections and data services. This should include:

6a) the costs, benefits and risks of combining seasonal and regional scale projections in a nationally-consistent framework;

6b) exploring the potential for integration of climate data and projections with other Earth systems information to enhance the relevance and utility of the climate information;

6c) identifying opportunities for co-design with business and community end users in the development of supporting tools and systems.

Action 7) The Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub, in conjunction with key partners in the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the university sector, should prepare an initial report on options for building a national climate service capability that would provide decision makers with climate risk information tailored to their organisations and sectors.

7a) The ESCC Hub and partners should report to the Advisory Group on their findings by June 2020.

7b) The provision of comprehensive knowledge brokering and climate services needed by industry, government and the community to manage the risks of a variable and changing climate should take account of the initiatives and ongoing work of key research agencies and institutions and state and territory governments.

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International Engagement and DependenciesAction 8) Agencies should maintain a national research focus on priority climate regions for Australia and the Southern Hemisphere, such as the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

8a) these national priorities require maintaining strong engagement with international programs including IPCC, WCRP Grand Challenges and CMIP6, as well as sustained observations and data collection, stewardship of and access to Australian data collections , to ensure continuing domestic access to international data sources and capabilities.

Action 9) Agencies should work in collaboration to support the provision of climate services in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in the South Pacific region through:

9a) the Australia-Pacific Climate Change Action Program (APCCAP) through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade;

9b) Partnerships and collaboration with corporate and government enterprises financing climate adaptation initiatives.

Research coordination and funding Action 10) Reform and expand the National Climate Science Advisory Committee into a Climate Science Advisory Group to provide high level advice on and coordination of Australia’s climate science effort, and publicly-funded research infrastructure. In its work, the Group should:

10a) consider the current human capital needs and resourcing levels of the existing scientific effort across the core climate research domains;

10b) consider the critical research skills and capabilities necessary to meet Australia’s future climate science challenges with regards to emerging global megatrends and pace of technological advancement;

10c) prepare an implementation plan to prioritise and coordinate Australian climate research, with consideration of the work of the states and territories, to fully utilise the national climate science capability.

ConclusionThe strategic actions set out in this report provide a solid foundation to ensure our climate research effort continues to deliver world class scientific knowledge and essential information for the Australian community and our economy. Climate change has significant and growing consequences for governments, communities in cities and regions, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, businesses and individuals. Decision-makers across all these sectors need appropriate and robust science to inform policy and manage their climate risks. A sustained investment and integrated research effort utilising the full capabilities of Australian climate science can deliver the climate services and products that businesses and the broader community will increasingly demand as the impacts of climate changes continue.

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Chapter 1. IntroductionOur nation’s prosperity and security is influenced by our ability to anticipate the economic, social and environmental impacts of climate change and variability on Australia and our region, from the short term, through to the end of the century and beyond.

An Australia climate-prepared for the decades ahead is one informed by robust climate change projections, integrated into decision-making across all sectors of society and economy. This vision requires projections that are plausible, scientifically credible, in forms and at temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision-making, and kept up-to-date in a standardised operational environment.

There are six components which underpin our national climate science effort:1. Observations, Data, Analysis and Infrastructure2. Climate Process Studies3. Climate Modelling and Projections4. Climate Risk, Adaptation and Services5. International Engagement and Dependencies6. Research Coordination and Funding

These six components form the core of Australia’s climate research effort and are essential if decision makers are to have the information they need to understand climate change, and manage its risk and impacts. The purpose of this document is to identify those areas of climate research where sustained national investment is needed to deliver maximum benefit from our scientific effort to users of climate information. Agriculture and resource managers, health professionals, insurers, engineers, conservationists, banks and global asset management firms, company directors and governments at all levels are all seeking more sophisticated analyses of current and future climate and guidance and tools that can be used to assess and manage climate risk.

Ensuring the needs of business, communities and governments are met will require sustained partnerships with them as end users of climate information. Opportunities for industry to co-design the climate tools, advice and services they require should be maximised to ensure they are fit-for-purpose. To achieve this, research agencies and climate information service providers will need to adopt a strong customer oriented focus to ensure their outputs and services benefit the Australian community and drive innovation for businesses and industries.

This document considers climate science broadly, not only the biophysical basis of climate processes and climate change, but also in relation to impacts and vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, scenario planning and projections, adaptation planning, mitigation and climate transition planning. The strategic actions are designed to ensure Australia’s climate science continues to deliver the information we need to understand, mitigate and adapt to the effects of a changing climate and can respond to users’ needs.

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Box 1: Australia’s Climate Science Pipeline

Australia’s climate science effort can be described by the “climate-science pipeline” (Figure. B1).

Australia’s observation infrastructure contributes to the global network of climate observations that span the temporal and spatial ranges necessary for climate researchers to understand the physical processes that drive the climate.

Research informs climate modelling (and vice-versa), and the need for observational infrastructure. These activities are supported by high- performance computing and eResearch infrastructure, which provide the processing capability for global climate models and the tools to share and use large quantities of data.

Climate science and modelling provides the basis for climate services, which is the information needed by citizens, businesses, and governments to make decisions. For example, this could be an insurance company determining their exposure to increasing risks of natural disasters, fire agencies assessing seasonal bushfire risk, the emergency service workers seeking to build resilience in communities, or governments deciding whether or not to change building codes. Useful climate information is in high demand, from sub-seasonal to decadal and 100-year forecasts.

The value of climate science to Australia can be greatly enhanced through climate services. To ensure public and business sectors can derive maximum value from the science, the entire pipeline needs to be supported.

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Figure B1. The climate science pipeline. This process shows the interdependency of activities needed for climate science and climate services.

This report identifies the following the goals for Australian climate science and considers their achievement will bring direct economic, social and environmental benefits to Australia and are integral to Australia’s long-term national interest:

to build on and refine our knowledge of climate variability and climate change; to ensure the knowledge and capabilities to prepare for and respond to climate-related

changes affecting our cities, regions and ecosystems, such as the frequency and intensity of bushfires, heatwaves, droughts, and floods, are ready and fit for purpose;

to improve understanding of climate extremes; the processes that drive them and the risks to ecosystems, infrastructure and industries and communities;

to ensure climate knowledge is available and relevant to decision makers at all levels—governments, communities, businesses and individuals—to inform on risks and adaptation responses;

to harmonise and align our climate research efforts for greatest national benefit; and to ensure the scientists who undertake this vital national endeavour are supported with

access to the skills and research infrastructure to realise these goals.

Australia’s climate science delivers a significant return on investment, consistent with investment in research and development (R&D) overall. International studies show one dollar of increased applied R&D spending increases national income by 6 to 25 dollars. One dollar of increased basic research spending increases national income by 20 to 100 dollars. For OECD countries like Australia it is estimated about 14% of domestic economic output relies directly on advances in the physical, mathematical and biological sciences1. In 2016 the Office of the Chief Scientist and the Australian Academy of Science reported that the total direct and indirect impact of advances in these science fields amounted to around 26% of Australian economic activity (about $330 billion per year)2.

Science and technology are drivers of economic prosperity, environmental quality, and national security. Public investment in research pays substantial dividends. The US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine reported “… returns on investment (ROI) … for publicly funded R&D range from 20 to 67%”3. Earth-system and climate sciences are critical components of the overall science and technology enterprise, providing knowledge and data essential for developing policies, legislation, and regulations regarding resources at all levels of government. Investments in earth-system and climate science stimulate innovations that fuel the economy, provide security, and enhance quality of life.

The economic benefits of climate science are increasingly recognised by a range of industries for whom anticipating and managing climate risk has significant value in planning and guiding investment.

1 Bochove, C.A. van, 2012 Basic Research and Prosperity: Sampling and Selection of Technological Possibilities and of Scientific Hypotheses as an Alternative Engine of Endogenous Growth; Centre for Science and Technology Studies, 2012 Working Paper Series, http://www.cwts.nl/pdf/CWTS-WP-2012-003.pdf

2 https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2016/01/reports-economic-contribution-of-advances-in-science/

3 National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine. 2007. Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/11463

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Australian science can tell us how our weather is likely to change in response to both natural and human factors and how we can best anticipate and adapt to these changes. Australia’s rainfall and water availability—critical to our economy and communities—are influenced by atmospheric and ocean processes in surrounding seas. Australian science has enabled us to understand climate drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, and so better predict rainfall, as well as the risks of flood and drought.

Australia also receives great benefit from our engagement with the international community on climate science, for example, access to critical satellite-based data. In addition there are fundamental and unique contributions that Australia makes to ensure global climate science reflects our circumstances and our interests. For example, our Antarctic research is crucial for the development of climate models around the world and provides insights into future sea-level rise that will affect coastal communities worldwide.

There is a vast breadth of work in the climate research initiatives currently underway in Australia. These programs and collaborations are built on a significant history of Australian and international climate science and several decades of sustained investment by Commonwealth, state and territory and local governments. All of these initiatives make important contributions to the Australian climate research landscape. The actions outlined in this document represent the key steps to enhance, coordinate and deliver climate science for Australia’s benefit. This science effort is the basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin our prosperity and wellbeing.

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Chapter 2. Implications of Climate ChangeClimate change has impacts on ecosystems, coastal systems, fire regimes, food and water security, health, infrastructure and human security. Impacts on ecosystems and societies are already occurring around the world, including in Australia, broadly consistent with the last 30 years of climate projections. Impacts vary from region to region and will likely continue to intensify and interact with other stresses. Also, some amount of further warming is already locked into the global climate system through the next decade, even with rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change exacerbates inherent risks in the Australian climate, and brings new ones. Heatwaves, droughts, bushfires, floods and tropical cyclones are all part of the Australian climate experience. Over 85% of our population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast. Much of Australia’s critical economic infrastructure is in our cities and ports and is vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges. Australia’s agricultural, mining and other industries, are all vulnerable to increasing frequency of severe heat and intensity of drought, floods and storms. Our terrestrial and marine ecosystems are facing serious threats from climate change, including extreme weather events, bushfires, and ocean acidification and marine heatwaves. 4,5

Figure 1. Australia’s mean temperature has warmed by around 1o since 19106

4 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

5 Harris, Bowman et al, Nature Climate Change Vol 8, July 2018

6 Figure http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf 18

Globally 2015-2018 were the four hottest years on record and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century. This persistent trend in increasing global temperature means that the earth’s surface is now just over 1 °C hotter than the pre-industrial era.

Ongoing warming in global temperature is projected, and the amount of warming beyond mid-century depends on the emissions pathway the world follows. Under a very low emissions pathway, global warming is projected to plateau at around 1 to 2.5°C (compared to the preindustrial era), but warming of around 2-3 °C by mid-century and 3-5 °C by late century is projected under a very high-emissions pathway.

Climate change does not only mean higher temperatures—it increases the likelihood of many weather-related extreme events. Increases in temperature directly affect the environment, economy and society, and these effects are likely to be compounded by climate change-induced events such as severe storms, heatwaves, more extreme droughts and floods and sea-level rise. These have direct economic impacts on all sectors of the Australian economy, our natural and managed terrestrial and marine ecosystems and on the health and wellbeing of individuals, communities, and society as a whole.

Figure 2: Trends in sea surface temperatures in the Australian region from 1950 to 20177

7 State of the Climate 2018: Trends in sea surface temperatures in the Australian region from 1950 to 2017

(data source: ERSST v5, www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). BoM and CSIRO19

The world’s oceans play a critical role in the climate system. More than 90 per cent of the additional energy arising from global warming is taken up by the ocean. As a result, the ocean is warming both near the surface and at depth, with the rate varying between regions and depths.

As the ocean warms it also expands. This thermal expansion has contributed about a third of the observed global sea level rise of about 20 cm since the late 19th Century. The remaining rise comes from the loss of ice from glaciers and polar ice sheets, and changes in the amount of water stored on the land. The confidence range of global sea level change has continuously improved because there has been more analysis of satellite altimetry, the time series has lengthened, and the various contributions to sea level have now all been reliably quantified and accounted for. Since 1993 sea level has been rising at about 3.2 cm per decade8.

The ocean surface around Australia has warmed at a similar rate to the air temperature. Sea surface temperature in the Australian region has warmed by around 1 °C since 1910, with eight of the ten warmest years on record occurring since 2010. Part of the East Australian Current now extends further south, creating an area of more rapid warming in the Tasman Sea. This extension is having numerous impacts on marine ecosystems, including many marine species extending their habitat range further south.

Warming of the ocean has contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves. There were long and intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea and around southeast Australia and Tasmania from September 2015 to May 2016 and from November 2017 to March 2018. Scientific analysis shows that the severity of both events can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Recent marine heatwaves are linked to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and damage to other important ecosystems such as kelp forest diebacks.

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts on human systems have also been attributed in part to climate change. Changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of water availability and quality9.

Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to climate change. While only a few recent species extinctions have so far been attributed to climate change, such as the Bramble Cay melomys, past natural global climate changes slower than the current rate of anthropogenic climate change have been implicated in major ecosystem shifts and species extinction events over the past several million years9.

Based on many studies around the world covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. A smaller number of studies have identified some positive impacts mainly in mid- and high-latitude regions, though it is not yet clear whether the balance of impacts will be negative or positive in these regions. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions. Effects on rice and soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions. Observed impacts relate mainly to

8 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/9 IPCC Working Group 3 Assessment Report 5 AR5 summary-for-policymakers.pdf

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production aspects of food security with several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions9.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) identified agriculture as one of Australia’s most exposed industries to climate variability and extremes. Australia’s farmers have always managed for and adapted to a variable climate and weather events, particularly extreme events. The most pervasive impact is drought, which disrupts cropping programs, reduces stock numbers, and erodes the productivity and resource base of farms, threatening long-term sustainability.

Moderate warming of Australia’s climate system may benefit some crops, provided they are not water stressed, in some colder locations. Warmer temperatures together with more variable rainfall are already leading to long-term declines in soil moisture over much of southern Australia. Higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may enhance growth in some plants (including some weed species). Pests, weeds and diseases will change in abundance and distribution with the potential for new species introductions or “sleeper” species to become invasive.

Without adaptation, the grazing industry is likely to experience declining pasture productivity and quality, livestock heat stress, changes to pests, weeds and diseases, and increased soil erosion, driven by higher temperatures and evaporation rates, lower soil moisture or changes in the frequency or intensity of droughts and intense storms10.

Figure 3. There has been a shift towards drier conditions across south-western and south-eastern Australia during the April to October winter cropping season.11

10 Adapting Agriculture To Climate Change, Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future Edited by: C. Stokes, M. Howden 201011 State of the Climate 2018

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Changes to seasonal climate characteristics relative to crop and fruit growing seasons can have impacts through, for example, reductions in pome fruit (e.g. apples and pears) yields due to changes in frost duration and timing, and lower wheat yields (up to 20%) when early heat stress coincides with flowering. Overall, production levels are projected to decline over much of southern Australia as a result of climate change12.

There is also a growing understanding of the links between climate change and human health. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is likely to have an increasing number of mostly adverse effects on human health, including mortality and morbidity related to extreme weather, especially heat. In addition, the following climate-related hazards to human health are projected: increases in water and food-borne disease; changes in seasonality and distribution of vector-borne diseases (that is diseases spread by organisms, such as mosquitoes) and; adverse impacts on community and mental health.

In 2017 the World Climate Research Programme and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) stated that sea-level rise has accelerated over the past 100 years due to global warming. Natural scientists, social scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners, recognized that sea-level rise represents a major challenge for coastal societies. To improve understanding of the complex risks of sea-level change and projections of future sea level rise, scientists need to work more closely with a broader stakeholder community. This is essential for assessing sea-level rise impacts, as well as for enhancing climate mitigation and adaptation measures13.

Coastlines are vulnerable due to the combination of extreme events such as storm surges and waves. Many coasts have dense and growing populations and economies, and important ecosystems. Major human and economic losses have occurred due to storm surges, e.g. over $US 100 billion losses and nearly 2,000 deaths during Hurricane Katrina (US, 2005) and over 100,000 deaths during Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, 2008).

Global sea levels started to rise in the mid-19th century and increased by about 14 to 17 cm during the 20th century. The two largest contributions to this rise are the expansion of the oceans as they warm and the addition of mass from melting glaciers. The largest uncertainty and concern in this respect is the stability of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Substantial ice-mass loss from these regions would have significant consequences for global sea level rise. Without rapid and significant cuts to global greenhouse gas emissions the world is likely to be committed to several meters of sea-level rise in the next few centuries.

Increased emissions of carbon dioxide has also brought a new risk to our oceans in the form of ocean acidification. Increased ocean acidification is already having impacts on many ocean organisms. Combined with higher ocean temperatures and lower oxygen in many ocean regions, it is likely to have significant impacts on fisheries, aquaculture, marine ecosystems and tourism.

12 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Policy Guidance Brief 4 – Adapting to agriculture to climate change13 World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) communiqué -Sea Level 2017 Conference Outcomes Statement

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Box 2: Natural disasters already occur in Australia: does climate change matter?

Figure B2. The costs of natural disasters, many of them climate-related, are likely to increase by 2050 without including the additional impacts of climate change on extreme weather14.

1. One quarter of Australia’s population, and 28 per cent or $425.5 billion of Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is in local government areas with high to extreme flood risk.

2. Part of the Melbourne CBD (with 450,000 workers) is at very high risk of floods.3. 2.2 million Australians live in local government areas with high and extreme risk of bushfire.4. $326.6 billion worth of GDP (or 20.3 per cent of the Australian economy) and 3.9 million people

(17.3 per cent of the population) are in local government areas with a high to extreme risk of tropical cyclones.

Research to map physical climate changes to sectoral risks, and quantify the costs, is essential. Only when this information is available can effective decisions be made about the balance of investments in adaptation and mitigation.

14 Deloitte Access Economics 2017 Building Resilience in our States and Territories. 120pp. $39AUD billion in present value terms, 2017.

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Globally we are seeing enormous costs and losses arising from extreme weather events, many likely to be climate-related. Analysis by insurer Munich Re15 shows that 2017 was the second-costliest year on record for natural disasters at $US330 billion for overall losses and the highest on record in insured losses at $US135 billion—with 81% of the total losses from weather events and 89% of insured losses from weather events respectively.

In 2017, 93% of all natural disaster events were weather-related and losses from weather-related disasters broke all previous records. The United States alone experienced 16 natural disasters that cost the economy more than $US300 billion including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The World Meteorological Organisation estimates that in 2016 natural disasters globally resulted in insurance costs of $US175 billion. Three-quarters of these costs were from weather events.16 In Australia, the costs of natural disasters are projected to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 without including the additional impacts of climate change on extreme weather.17

The characteristics of individual extreme weather events are, by their nature, difficult to predict. It can also be difficult to determine if they are changing in intensity, frequency or location . However, when certain climate drivers are clearly in operation, such as El Nino, we now know that the likelihood of extreme weather events is increased. The warming of Australia’s climate over the past century has also contributed to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events and dangerous bushfire weather in some regions18. Our improved knowledge of climate science has allowed us to better prepare for changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. A challenging aspect of increasing climate-related natural disasters is that the costs are not likely to be borne evenly from year to year. Thus funding disaster recovery under climate change may become increasingly complex and difficult.

15 Munich Re Natural Catastrophe Review 2017 https://www.munichre.com/en/media-relations/publications/press-releases/2018/2018-01-04-press-release/index.html

16 WMO 2017 Five priorities for weather and climate research. Nature V552 pp168-170

17 Deloitte Access Economics 2017 Building Resilience in our States and Territories. 120pp. $39AUD billion in present value terms, 2017.

18 See State of the Climate 2018, BoM and CSIRO at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/24

Chapter 3. Key Components of Australia’s Climate Research EffortMaximising the benefits from our investments in climate research requires a cohesive strategy and coordinated effort. There are six core elements to the Australian climate science landscape, all of which are needed to provide decision makers the information they need to manage climate risk. This science effort is the basis of building and delivering the practical information we need to underpin our prosperity and our wellbeing in a variable and changing climate.

Each of these elements has a vital role in ensuring Australia’s climate research continues to deliver the information needed to understand the effects of our changing climate, to be able to respond to changing knowledge and provide the products and services the community, industry and governments require.

3.1 Observations, Data, Analysis and InfrastructureAccurate weather, climate and Earth system models depend on extensive observations. Observations of the climate system allow us to understand key climate processes and phenomena, track how and why the climate is changing, project future climate changes and better understand climate-related risks. Observations are also needed to monitor and assess the efficacy of climate policies.

Long-term, consistent climate observations (atmosphere, land, ocean, marine and terrestrial biospheres and cryosphere) are required to monitor climate variability and extremes, underpin climate change detection and attribution, track trends and abrupt changes in the climate and provide information with which to inform and test models. These are necessary to understand the risks and opportunities presented by a variable and changing climate, and support the development of adaptation and mitigation responses. Through the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the global community has identified the Essential Climate Variables (Figure 3) – these are physical, chemical or biological variables that critically contribute to the characterization of Earth’s climate.

Observing the Earth’s climate system requires access to key research infrastructure, such as the Marine National Facility’s research vessel, Australia’s Antarctic icebreaker and research stations, and collaborative facilities provided through the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN).

Satellite data forms a critical component of the Global Climate Observing System. Rapid technological developments in satellite-based Earth observation and international investment have provided new data sets, for example on forest cover, soil moisture and salinity that have climate relevance. These complement other data used in model-based forecasts and projections. Australia must optimally position itself to take advantage of these new data streams to define the current climate, to measure ecosystem responses to changes in the climate system and to test and refine climate and Earth System models. For example, relatively new climate observations such as soil moisture and lightning detection are becoming increasingly important in understanding and responding to climate risks such as bushfire conditions.

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The data from these observing systems are essential inputs into climate research and climate models. Weather and climate services are only possible with a well-supported and comprehensive network of measurements, with data maintained in a secure and accessible way.

Figure 3: World Meteorological Organisation defined Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

While high quality climate records remain essential to traditional weather observation and prediction, many users’ needs have moved beyond historical observational data sets that determine long-term trends variable by variable. A new generation of climate services utilise “full-field observational data” to determine risks from climate change and extreme weather, to support the management of natural and built resources. The data layers that underpin these climate services depend on the best available analyses of past weather through re-analysis, the present through comprehensive observational networks and the near future through operational predictions and downscaled projections. Ideally these services would function within a common framework so that similar tools to manage, archive and analyse data can be applied.

Our physical research infrastructure requires long-term, strategic planning and investment to maintain and extend current research assets, such as research ships, supercomputer facilities with integrated advanced research data management systems and ocean and atmospheric monitoring facilities, as well as the development and implementation of new observation and data-handling technologies. Emerging technologies such as low-cost sensors for land and ocean deployment also need support for research and development.

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Maintaining existing atmospheric, land and ocean observing networks is critical. In addition, gaps in observation systems need to be addressed to maximise Australia’s capacity to fully understand the causes and impacts of changing and variable climates. There are geographical and temporal gaps in otherwise well-monitored climate variables (such as temperature and rainfall). There are other variables, such as soil moisture and carbon fluxes, which are under-observed in many locations. Geographic gaps include the coastal ocean, parts of regional Australia, the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. Important climate observation data for Australian research includes records of:

air temperature, precipitation characteristics including frequency, intensity, type, and duration, hail size and intensity, surface air pressure, winds and water vapour including surface air temperature data through the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network (ACORN-SAT);

localised atmospheric phenomena such as tornado and downburst events; atmospheric gases including carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases,

aerosols and ozone, from locations such as the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in Tasmania;

high precision in-situ analysers and remotely-sensed GHG concentrations measured from satellites and aircraft for GHG inventory measurements and analysis;

Antarctic ice sheet present state and change; ocean currents, salinity and temperature, oxygen and nutrients, including though the

Integrated Marine Observation System Argo float network, research vessel-based measurement and satellite observing systems;

sea ice extent and thickness; surface radiation budget and fluxes of carbon, water and energy between the Earth’s

surface and the atmosphere including terrestrial ecosystems (such as the rate of evapotranspiration, solar reflection from plants and uptake of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis) through for example, the TERN OzFlux network;

satellite data and radar climatology for longer predictions, projections and reanalysis which support direct applications and carbon models;

sea level; ocean carbon chemistry and ocean acidification.

These observational data are complemented by insights into longer-term climate dynamics provided by paleoclimate records from ice cores, corals and tree rings. Paleoclimate data provides for proxy records at annual resolution for the last thousand years or longer and is essential to quantify improved estimates of natural decadal-to-century scale climate variability. Ice cores can provide climate data dating back to 800,000 years and potentially even longer.

Records of past climate from paleoclimate and historical archives provide crucial information on the frequency and intensity of extreme events and how our baseline climate is changing. These records can improve the skill of climate models and build confidence in projections of future climate and extremes. Analysis of this data can also inform products and services to assist end-users in the agriculture and water sectors, as just two examples, to understand the full extent of Australia’s past climate variability and to manage climate risk.

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Atmospheric-based methods to complement “bottom-up” GHG inventories

Advances in atmospheric GHG observations can provide greater transparency, accuracy, and completeness in reporting national inventories through the UNFCCC, when paired with already established bottom-up inventory-based methods. Assessment of progress in greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement requires evidence-based validation of emission sources and sinks.

New “top-down” approaches use stable, high precision in-situ analysers as well as remotely-sensed GHG concentrations measured from satellites and aircraft in conjunction with atmospheric models. These innovations capture the strengths of inventory-based methods while bringing transparency and enhanced accuracy. They have major application in improving estimates of GHG emissions in landscapes such as cities, and of Synthetic Greenhouse Gases (SGGs) such as CFCs which have become the third biggest component of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre is beginning to build a network of in situ monitoring stations in Melbourne, for carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide and SGGs with a view to being able to deliver timely and policy relevant information to governments.

The implications of gaps in observational data need to be well understood, including where data are needed to understand, model and monitor key climate processes, and where there is inadequate sampling or a lack of observational infrastructure. Given the specialised nature of this work, a reference group of domain experts and agency representatives should be convened to undertake a gap analysis and prioritisation process.

Action:

1) Convene a technical reference group to identify gaps in observation systems, data streams, their analysis and application with emphasis areas identified through engagement with climate information users.

1a) the technical reference group should report to the Advisory Group on gaps, risks, their implications, priorities and options by December 2019, with support from the Department of the Environment and Energy, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and the Department of Education.

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Reanalysis datasets

Information on wind speed, rainfall, temperature, precipitation, pressure and soil moisture, compiled in a spatially and temporally continuous format, is needed for analysis of high impact weather including tropical cyclones, east coast lows, fire weather and heatwaves. However, historical observation records are often incomplete. An approach to overcome this limitation is to assimilate historical observations into a weather model to produce consistent set of spatial and temporal data, known as a "reanalysis". Global reanalyses are available from global centres and are widely used for climate research, but not at resolutions that meet the needs for regional or local information. In response to this need BoM has been undertaking a high-resolution reanalysis using the ACCESS model at 12 km grid scale with some areas downscaled to 1.5 km scales to provide consistent data sets over time. These reanalyses can be used to better understand weather behaviour. High resolution reanalysis data provides an innovative tool for understanding the changing climate risk associated with extreme events such as major fires and flooding events.

The Australian-developed reanalysis aligns model output with observations and provides consistency when analysing the atmosphere over years and decades. In turn, these analyses improve our ability to understand the impacts of climate drivers such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation on droughts, floods, heatwaves and other extreme events. This greater understanding underpins work on better forecasts and analysis of climate risk and resilience, allowing for better planning and management.

Reanalysis methods can also be applied to the ocean. CSIRO has led the development of a global ocean reanalysis at 10 km resolution. CSIRO and BoM have also demonstrated capability for fine (approximately 2km) scale ocean reanalysis in the Great Barrier Reef region. These tools, now available for climate research, could be further extended. A high resolution wind and pressure field reanalysis of Australia’s territorial waters would greatly enhance studies of coastal impacts, including from storm surge and waves.

Action:

2) The Bureau of Meteorology, with support from CSIRO and research institutions, should prioritise projects to develop, enhance and maintain consistent high resolution climate datasets covering the Australian land mass and surrounding ocean regions including high resolution subdomains encompassing all capital cities and major regional population centres.

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Box 3 - Emissions Estimates for Synthetic Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depleting Substances

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre provides the Australian government with global emissions estimates based on atmospheric observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment Network (AGAGE)19. Data from the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (part of the AGAGE Network) are also used to calculate Australian emissions for a large range of synthetic greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, which are generally also highly potent greenhouse gases.

Using atmospheric (“top-down”) observations provides greater transparency, accuracy, and completeness in reporting national inventories through the UNFCCC, when combined with estimates determined using well-established bottom-up inventory-based methods. Indeed, this dual approach combining bottom up inventory estimates with estimates determined from atmospheric measurements is well established for the synthetic greenhouse gases, which mostly have no natural sources and are emitted from known locations. For instance, the dominant source of the refrigerant gas HFC-134a measured at Cape Grim is Melbourne; while PFCs (perfluorocarbons) are emitted only from aluminium smelters.

This two-pronged approach to emissions estimation demonstrates some of the additional robustness that emissions estimates of CO2 and CH4 would garner from validating inventory approaches with atmospheric measurements. For example, Figure B120 shows that top down emissions estimate of HFC (a significant synthetic greenhouse gas) have diverged from the Australian National GHG Inventory estimates since ca. 2011. While the Inventory assumes time-invariant emission factors (based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-recommended ‘methods for estimating national GHG emissions), the atmospheric measurements at Cape Grim may be showing the early effects of the refrigerant industry acting to reduce its emissions.

Figure B3: Australian emissions of HFCs -125, -134a, -143a, -23) and other HFCs (-32, -152a, -227ea, -236fa, -365mfc) estimated from atmospheric data measured at Cape Grim, with modelling techniques, and in the Australian National GHG Inventory [DoEE, 2017], expressed in units of M tonne CO2-e.`

19 Prinn, R. G., R. F. Weiss, P. J. Fraser, P. G. Simmonds, D. M. Cunnold, F. N. Alyea, S. O'Doherty, P. Salameh, B. R. Miller, J. Huang, R. H. J. Wang, D. E. Hartley, C. Harth, L. P. Steele, G. Sturrock, P. M. Midgley and A. McCulloch, A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE, J. Geophys. Res.,105(D14), 17751-17792, doi:10.1029/2000JD900141, 2000.20 Dunse, B. L., P. J. Fraser, N. Derek, P. B. Krummel and L. P. Steele, Australian and global HFC, PFC, sulfur hexafluoride nitrogen trifluoride and sulfuryl fluoride emissions, Report prepared for Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia, iv, 29 pp., 2017.

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3.2 Climate Process Studies Ongoing research is needed to provide the data and understanding to improve our knowledge of the atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, cryospheric and hydrological processes that determine our global and regional climates. This research directly supports the improvement of Australian climate modelling and weather prediction.

Further integration of monitoring and process studies is also needed to improve our understanding of the variability of ocean carbon cycling and ocean acidification in the Southern Ocean, the eastern Indian Ocean and the south west Pacific. This understanding is needed to inform global policies to stabilise climate and to anticipate carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change and extreme events. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in climate modelling and projections with consequences for emissions mitigation, risk assessment, and adaptation decision-making. Climate process studies enhance our ability to meaningfully evaluate climate model results, thus informing our knowledge of which modelled changes are plausible and which are not.

Figure 4. Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions21.

21 AR4 Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis FAQ 1.2, Fig 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/historical-overview-of-climate-change-science/

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In addition, gaps in fundamental understanding of critical climate processes, for example those that govern cloud formation, are barriers to greater confidence in modelling and long-term projections of climate change. Lastly there are emerging patterns of weather and climate phenomena being driven by changes to the climate system that need ongoing research. These include compound events such as drought conditions closely followed by extreme storm and rainfall events, and extreme weather seasons, where the seasons exhibit multiple features that are outside the bounds of historical data such as the summer seasons of 2013 and 2018.

Given these knowledge gaps in critical areas and the associated uncertainties, research efforts should be directed at addressing these priority questions, with an aim to maximise the return on information and benefit for the broadest range of end users. Many processes in the climate system affect Australia through changes in their frequency, extent and intensity. Climate processes which continue to require focussed effort include:

Atmosphere

cloud dynamics and feedbacks; aerosol (air pollution, dust, and smoke) effects; tropical convection and its influences on cloud and rainfall patterns, regional climates and

circulation responses to climate forcing; air-sea interaction processes in the tropics and extra-tropics, especially in the Pacific and

Indian Ocean sectors; processes contributing to “atmospheric river” formation as result of tropical-extratropical

interaction, also referred to as the NW-SE cloud band; organised mesoscale convective systems and severe thunderstorms; circulation response to climate forcing (e.g. important for storm track, dynamic response

projections); atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone processes, tropospheric chemistry and

Southern Hemisphere climate interactions;

Land and cryosphere

land carbon uptake and surface-atmosphere carbon exchange; vegetation and land-cover interactions; processes controlling future changes in rainfall over different regions of Australia; drivers of coastal storm process, including storm surge and/or wave events and altered

direction of waves, associated with shifting storm tracks; the dynamics of Antarctic ice sheets; high-latitude sea-ice and ice-ocean interactions;

Ocean

deep ocean circulation and ocean carbon uptake; oceans’ momentum balance, heat transport and boundary currents; ocean convection, eddy development and fluid physics, subduction, sub-mesoscale

processes, flow over topography and tracer circulation;

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drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation and their impacts on droughts, floods, heatwaves and other extreme events.

Action:

3) The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), in collaboration with research agencies and institutions, should identify significant gaps in understanding and areas of uncertainty in key climate processes affecting climate predictability and climate projections for Australia and surrounding regions.

3a) The CLEX report should also consider prioritisation and resourcing needed to address gaps in knowledge and research efforts in Australia over the next decade.

3b) CLEX should report its findings to the Advisory Group by December 2019.

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3.3 Climate Modelling and Projections Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, including conservation of mass, energy and momentum, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists represent the land surface, oceans, cryosphere and atmosphere as a 3-dimensional grid, apply the differential equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighbouring points. Due to their complexity and the sheer number of calculations involved, these mathematical representations of the climate system need to run on very powerful computers. Global climate models (GCMs) are the best tools we have available for projecting climate change and its impacts22.

Figure 5. Visual representation of a global climate model23

Climate models simulate large-scale synoptic features of the atmosphere, such as the progression of high and low pressure systems, and large scale oceanic currents and overturning. Since the 1960s climate models have undergone continuous development, and now incorporate interactions

22 NOAA The first climate model; https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/ welcome.html#model

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between the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice and land surface. GCMs have shown a substantial and robust warming signal resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over several generations of model development.

Confidence in climate and Earth system models comes from their basis in fundamental physical principles, and from their ability to represent important features of the current and past climate. Many important physical processes occur at finer spatial scales, including radiation and precipitation (rainfall) processes, cloud formation and atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The impacts of these processes are included in ‘parameterisations’, where their effects are approximated on the coarser model grid. Parameterisations are developed from intensive theoretical and observational study, and essentially act as ‘sub-models’ within the climate model itself. However uncertainties do remain, particularly in the details and timing of changes—another reason to maintain our efforts in Observations (described in Section 3.1) and Climate Process Studies (Section 3.2).

Figure 6. A schematic of a global climate model. The solid arrows depict the primary domain connections and the dotted arrows show the key flows and feedbacks of energy, water and carbon between the various domains23.

23 From https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/modelling-and-projections/climate-models/

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Confidence in projections is greater in some variables (e.g. temperature) than others (e.g. precipitation). These uncertainties are reflected in the ranges presented for projections. A broad suite of climate variables has been analysed to develop climate projections. Consequently, there is no single “best” model or subset of models, and climate projections vary between models. Confidence in projections is increased when multiple models are used in ensembles.

Although the spatial resolution of climate models has improved over time, the relatively large grid scales of models limit our ability to represent of some important regional and local scale features and climate processes. These features can be important for understanding, for example, the local distribution of rainfall. To try to include such features, techniques for downscaling can be applied. This involves embedding higher resolutions for some variables within a global model, or using robust statistical relationships between local scale climate and broad scale climate features.

Model downscaling is the process by which coarse-resolution global climate model outputs are translated into finer resolution climate information, so that they better account for regional climatic influences, such as local topography. This gives a much deeper understanding of climate impacts and allows us to better identify risks to cities, infrastructure and communities.

Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been developed to provide a weather forecasting, climate and Earth system modelling system with model components specifically tailored to Australia’s climate. The development of ACCESS has been led by BoM and CSIRO, with significant contributions from the university sector, particularly the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and its predecessor, the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. ACCESS is built on the UK Met Office's Unified Model and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Modular Ocean Model with additional Australian-developed modules for the land surface (CABLE) and ocean biogeochemistry (WOMBAT).

ACCESS is a critical component of Australia’s climate science effort and is supported directly and indirectly by several Australian Government portfolios. Outputs from ACCESS are used for forecasting weather, including tropical cyclones and fire weather, for generating seasonal climate predictions, for building future global climate scenarios in climate change assessments (e.g. CMIP), for regional climate projections for Australia and our neighbours; and for research into climate processes. The Earth System configuration of ACCESS provides simulations of the global and regional carbon cycle—including its uptake in the land and oceans—and carbon-climate feedbacks. This provides plausible future climate scenarios under different global emissions pathways.

The ongoing development of ACCESS as Australia’s weather, climate and Earth System Modelling capability is a national priority because it is fundamental tool for forecasting weather and understanding long-term climate risks. ACCESS can be configured for the following purposes and applications:

the best available physical global climate model; an Earth system enabled climate model (i.e. interactive carbon cycle and atmospheric

chemistry); a model suite that provides climate predictions from seasons to years to decades;

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a high resolution regional climate model capability for applications such as hydrological modelling, urban planning, and carbon and water management.

Figure 7: Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) components configured for climate and Earth system model simulations, and the essential capabilities that support its functionality

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Outputs from ACCESS provide valuable information for agriculture, water management, industry, health, infrastructure, energy, transport, government and emergency services. A fully developed climate and Earth system model that captures unique aspects of the Australian and regional environment, both terrestrial and marine, is needed to fully understand the impacts of climate change and variability on Australia.

There is growing demand for climate analyses at local scales requiring model downscaling capabilities. ACCESS forms a strong base for this capability. The development of an ACCESS-based climate downscaling capability offers the opportunity for a nationally consistent approach to climate downscaling. This is important as it would allow consistent risk analysis across state borders—critical for business operations and infrastructure that cross state boundaries, such as electricity networks. Downscaling has the potential to enhance our understanding in some key areas such as extreme rainfall, frost frequency, water availability. There will remain a need for statistical downscaling (statistically relating patterns in large-scale climate to the local climate) given the high computational cost of dynamical downscaling (using output from large-scale climate models to ‘drive’ finer-scale climate models) and size of the Australian landmass.

Enhancements to ACCESS are planned to deliver higher resolution and greater accuracy for weather and seasonal climate forecasts, decadal predictions, long-term climate projections and downscaling to meet the needs of policy makers, the community and industry. Delivering these modelling capabilities requires a matching enhancement to the provision and management of data and the human resources and specialist capabilities and skills needed for interpretation and application of the information generated. These analyses and model configurations will increasingly be deployed on the next-generation of high performance computing platforms, with all the requisite information technology skills that this will require. A critical issue requiring ongoing consideration is data storage capacity, particularly for CMIP6 data for research uses, and for future ACCESS simulations. Due the very large volumes of data generated by modelling on high-performance computing platforms ongoing management of sufficient storage capacity and the associated costs will become critical.

These modelling capabilities will also require operational, research and funding agencies to work cooperatively to develop the physical and human infrastructure of ACCESS. This will require: collaboration across institutions and disciplines, an investment in people and the development of new skills, continued engagement with the international climate research community, high performance computing, software, model coding and infrastructure, and coupling to integrated assessment models. The recent investment of $70 million for the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) to maintain Australia’s current Tier 1 (petascale) high performance computing capability is critical to support climate model development, operations and capability within agencies, and research institutions.

Australia currently has limited capability to provide climate forecasts on a scale of 1 to 10 years - a timescale critically important to the marine, agriculture, energy and water sectors. The Government’s 10-year investment in developing a decadal forecasting capability through the CSIRO Climate Science Centre is a central component to generating multi-year climate projections. Further efforts and resources will be required to support this capability and address the ongoing need to expand high-performance computing and data storage capacity as models are improved. Currently

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there are also certain modelled climate processes which need further research to resolve and clarify their influence on model outputs and reduce uncertainties in sea surface temperature, sea ice formation and ecological impacts. In a complementary project, BoM is investigating the potential for extending the current ACCESS seasonal forecast system out to 3-5 years. Achieving reliable, multi-year seasonal predictions, at spatial scales from local to global, will have many practical benefits for Australian communities and industries.

All of these ACCESS projects and activities would benefit from being brought together in a more coherent development and governance framework.

Action:

4) ACCESS partners including the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and key universities should review and extend their collaborative effort to develop ACCESS as Australia’s national weather and climate model platform, in cooperation with our long-standing international partners.

4a) the principles to guide the ongoing collaboration for the ACCESS model should be defined and the governance and coordination arrangements improved. This could include consideration of negotiating a new formal collaborative agreement between the partners; and

4b) this collaboration should align with the Scoping Study for the Optimisation of the ACCESS Model being led through the Department of Education and NCI secretariat, as part of the Australian Government Research Infrastructure Investment Plan.

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Box 4. The World Climate Research Program—CMIP and CORDEX Projects

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) facilitates the analysis and prediction of climate variability and change, with a focus on (i) climate predictability; (ii) determining the effect of human activities on climate; and (iii) ensuring that this research is relevant and useful to society. The WCRP coordinates climate research that cannot be done by any single nation—research that needs to be sustained over decadal timescales and research that is relevant to the global climate system. Global scientific collaboration is essential if we are to understand the global climate system, how it is changing and why, and what plausible future climate trajectories might be.

The WCRP coordinates the development and evaluation of global climate models (GCMs) run by modelling centres around the world, including Australia. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) delivers globally-consistent, quality-assured multi-climate-model data sets and provides the global research community with a standardised set of experiment protocols, variable model inputs and output formats. It also guides and directs the climate change science that underpins IPCC Assessment Reports on climate change. CMIP data is also used for regional climate projections. This includes the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program. CORDEX provides a powerful research framework to evaluate regional climate model performance and produce best-available regional scale climate projections to inform robust climate adaptation planning.

Figure B4. From Global Climate Model to local community scale climate projection (a) CMIP DECK experiment suite24 and (b) CORDEX downscaling pathway visualisation25

The most recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013 provided much of the scientific evidence base for the 2015 Paris Agreement, demonstrating the value of this global scientific effort and the importance of international collaboration and scientific coordination. Crucially, the WCRP provides an enduring institutional framework that enables long-term planning, governance to ensure transparent decision-making and supports the exchange of scientific knowledge. Australian climate research and climate services are both contributors to, and beneficiaries of, this successful global collaboration.

24 https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip25 Image credit Dr Andrew Wood, US National Centre for Atmospheric Research

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Realizing an enhanced ACCESS capability as identified above will require explicit agreement from its partners to progress ACCESS development in the form of a unified climate and Earth system model as the primary means to provide weather forecasts as well as climate predictions and projections. The model suite needs to be tailored to unique aspects of Australian climate, for example though implementing an Australian developed land surface model component. Refinement of the model components requires coordination to harmonise and align BoM, CSIRO and university research efforts to maximise the return on investment. Research must also be aligned to generate the best available weather and climate services to meet business and community needs.

ACCESS also incorporates modules developed and maintained by research groups in other nations, including the UK Met Office, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the US Los Alamos National Laboratory. Our continued use of these ACCESS components requires ongoing collaborations with these groups. Working with our international partners will also be necessary to ensure access satellite data from overseas agencies to support these modelling efforts. Through ACCESS, Australia provides the leading Southern Hemisphere-based contribution to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Consistent with the international community, Australia uses a multi-method approach, called a multi-model ensemble, through the World Climate Research Programme’s CORDEX program to produce robust climate projections at regional scales. Like all global climate models, ACCESS cannot be used exclusively as the primary means of producing climate projections. In this context, ACCESS is one member of a larger global model ensemble. Without ACCESS Australia could not contribute to this international multi-method approach for projections and downscaling through programs such as CMIP and IPCC. This would create a major deficiency in Southern hemisphere focused climate modelling and limit our understanding of the impacts on the Australian continent. We would also be entirely dependent on other countries to do future research and analysis for us. This demonstrates the importance of developing the ACCESS suite to allow Australia to contribute to and utilise global ensembles and complement our work on Australian regional-scale climate models.

There is significant scope and potential for ACCESS to be used in targeted experiments by Australian researchers. These experiments may be designed to enhance our understanding of processes relating to climate variability and change, or to better understand particular aspects of climate projections prepared from the CMIP ensemble of models. It’s important to note the different ACCESS applications and needs of different groups across the research community. For example, for use in the Bureau’s seasonal prediction system, the Bureau’s emphasis is on a high-resolution version of ACCESS, whereas the Decadal Forecasting Project requires a streamlined version of ACCESS to facilitate runs of large ensemble members. The diverging applications pose challenges for the ACCESS partners to satisfy the needs of users within the available resourcing.

In addition to developing ACCESS capability, improvement in the level of user-support that is available to those interested in using ACCESS is required. This is important for enhancing the uptake and utility of ACCESS across the Australian (and international) research community.

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Figure 8: Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) showing various configurations of the climate model components, countries of origin of the climate function components and the relevant timescales the various configurations are optimised for26.

Clim ate function being m odelled

O cea ns A tm osphe re Land su rface S ea-ice

CMIP MOM USA UM UK ACCESS– CM2

CABLE A U CICE US A

C S IR O -D ecadal tes t MOM USA GFDL-AM USA

ACCESS – ESM 1.5 G FD L-LM U S A G FD L-S IS US A

BoM-Seasonal

NEMO UK UM UK

JULES U K CICE U S A

C S IR O -D e cad a l p roduction A C C E S S E S M 1 .5

A CC ES S–G AC CESS–R

A CC ES S –C ACCESS –TC

B lu e lin k O c ean

ACCESS– S APS– 2

MOM USA UM UK

CA BL E A U C IC E U SA

Forecasts M O M U SA

Clim ate m odel component glossary

APS ACCES S

Australia Parallel Suite Austra lian Com m unity C lim ate and Earth System Simulator

C IC E G FDL G FD L–AM

Los Alamos sea ice model Geophysical F luid Dynam ics Laboratory A tm ospheric M odel developed by GFDL

AC C ES S –C M 2 AC CES S C oupled M odel G FD L–LM Land M odel deve loped by G FD L A CC E S S–E SM 1.5 AC CES S E arth System M odel G FD L–SIS Sea Ice S im ulator developed by G FDL ACCESS–G AC CES S G loba l JU LES U K Joint UK Land Environment Simulator ACCESS–R AC CES S R egional MOM Modular Ocean Model ACCESS–S ACCESS Seasonal NE M O U K Nucleus for European M odelling of the Ocean ACCESS–TC AC CES S T ropica l Cyc lones UM Unified Model CABLE Com m unity Atm osphere B iosphere

Land Exchange M odel

Advances in software development and coding expertise will be needed in Australia to keep up with next-generation model development being applied in global research projects such as CMIP and other international research commitments. The transition to new high performance computing architectures and processors by our international partners will require ACCESS to undergo major recoding within 5-10 years along with the supporting investment that will require. BOM and CSIRO, with the universities, are preparing for this multi-year process with the UK Met Office and other partners.

26 *Note in Figure 8 the ACCESS ESM1.5 configuration also includes the Australian developed components CASA-CSP for terrestrial biogeochemistry and WOMBAT for ocean biogeochemistry (Not shown).

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Ongoing support for high performance computing, climate model development, operations and maintenance within agencies, human resources, research institutions and the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) will be essential to develop a national capability in next-generation exascale computing (systems capable of a billion, billion calculations per second). Exascale computing systems are anticipated to be operational by 2020-21 in the US, China and EU and represent a thousandfold increase in processing power over the current generation of petascale supercomputers operating in Australia.

Next generation of climate projections

An Australia climate-prepared for the decades ahead is one informed by robust climate change projections, integrated into decision-making across all sectors of society and the economy. This vision requires projections that are plausible, scientifically credible, in forms and at temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision-making, and kept up-to-date in a standardised operational environment.

Australia has hundreds of billions of dollars in assets across sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, tourism, property and water which are exposed to climate risks. To make evidence-based decisions about climate change, and to minimise the exposure to future climate risks, Australia needs access to knowledge, data and information that is scientifically credible, up-to-date, accessible and relevant to a wide range of stakeholders in the public and private sectors. There is an enormous demand for science-based data and information from Australian climate researchers to provide the evidence needed to accurately price, report and manage climate-related risks.

Demand is growing not only in terms of new users and new applications, but in new questions. User requirements continue to increase in complexity and the demand for fit-for-purpose impacts information is very large. Climate projections data (illustrated in Figure 8) must provide an evidence base for Australian stakeholders to assess important existing and new questions such as—what if the world does (or does not) meet the Paris Agreement targets? What if climate engineering is employed? What if multiple climate extremes occur concurrently and stress-test our systems?

The next generation of Australian climate projections will need to assess and utilise the expanding range of inputs to get maximum benefit from the latest developments and meet growing needs. New data sources generated in Australia or from international programs include observed in situ and satellite datasets, new reanalyses and new climate model simulation ensembles from Global Climate Models and high resolution models inputs from the current CMIP6 projects . Downscaling and high-resolution modelling is moving to greater coordination, and Australia should adopt this approach, including participating fully in the CORDEX and CORDEX2 programs for intermediate downscaling, and having a coordinated program for very high resolution modelling (grid size of 5 km to below 2 km) for specific applications, such as extreme events, rainfall and urban climate.

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Figure 9. Example of a climate projection of average temperature from: Climate Change in Australia Technical Report Projections for Australia´s NRM Regions pp92.27

Figure 9.1: Time series for Australian average temperature for 1910–2090 as simulated in CMIP5, relative to the 1950–2005 mean. The central line is the median value, and the shading is the 10th and 90th percentile range of 20-year running means (inner) and single year values (outer). The grey shading indicates the period of the historical simulation, while three future scenarios are shown with colour- coded shading: RCP8 .5 (purple), RCP4 .5 (blue) and RCP2 .6 (green). ACORN-SAT observations are shown in brown and a series from a typical model are shown into the future in light purple.

27 Climate Change in Australia Technical Report Projections for Australia´s NRM Regions https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/168/CCIA_2015 NRM_ TechnicalReport_WEB.pdf

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Australia needs to use the latest science, digital platforms, ‘big data’ management practices and delivery models to provide climate change data and information tailored to the growing range of stakeholders that now includes private industry and consultants. This delivery requires researchers to engage more deeply and earlier with end-users than they have previously. Data platforms must be compatible with other datasets and platforms needed to address climate change risks, such as socio-economic vulnerability, exposure, land use and physical infrastructure data. A crucial component is the provision of different levels of information, knowledge brokering expertise, guidance and protocols for applying climate information and data. There is an increasing demand for these services in response to an increased awareness of risk, legal liability and social-license-to-operate regarding climate change impacts (see Section 3.4).

Action:

5) The NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub and key partners should develop a plan by June 2020, for the program of next generation climate projections for Australia, including:

5a) undertaking further market research and stakeholder consultation to inform the work program;

5b) assessing and utilising data sets and modelling methods to use the inputs more effectively, for example, ensemble generation methods and constraints on projections approaches;

5c) coordinating new regional scale modelling and integration for use in national projections;

5e) significantly enhancing links to climate services and knowledge brokering to the diverse range of stakeholder groups.

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3.4 Climate Risk, Adaptation and ServicesOver the course of human history, weather patterns have greatly influenced the growth of commerce and communities. But in a world experiencing climate change, past assumptions about the weather and climate no longer hold true. Local, regional and national governments, as well as businesses, are grappling with their role as decision-makers. Climate data may be available but it is often hard to find, understand and apply to decision-making. Both private and public sector decision-makers need accessible, credible and relevant climate information to increase resilience to the more intense and frequent weather extremes resulting from climate change and complementary adaptation and mitigation plans.

Decision makers need climate risk information tailored to their organisations and sectors. A comprehensive climate services capability would enable customers in industry, government and the community to better manage their risks from a variable and changing climate. ‘Climate services’ describes the provision of climate information and products that enable decision makers in government, industry and the community to understand and address the risks and opportunities of a variable and changing climate. It is about supplying more bespoke information, rather than publishing generic information as has been the primary practice to date. Developments in the private sector, including the report of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, and initiatives by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission have changed the way businesses engage with climate risk and the information they will need. This means climate information needs to be provided in new ways to ensure business can use it more easily to make investment decisions and manage risk effectively.

With appropriate support, Australia has the opportunity to develop and enhance fit-for-purpose information products and services that governments, resource managers and the business sector need. End users of climate information include agriculture and resource managers, health professionals, insurers, banks and global asset management firms, company directors, households and governments at all levels. All are seeking more sophisticated analyses of future climate and climate change, and tools that can be used to assess and manage their climate risks. To ensure these growing needs are addressed, early and sustained engagement with industry users of climate services is essential so scientists can understand the needs and provide information that will be of practical use.

Opportunities for business and industry to participle in the co-design and development of the climate products and services they will require must be maximised to ensure that the needs of these end users of climate information are met. Linking business needs with ‘big data’ projects such as a national ACCESS-based dynamic downscaling capability and the Digital Earth Australia initiative would provide a comprehensive and powerful national data resource to accommodate climate-related stakeholder needs and requirements.

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Box 5: Private and public climate service needs

Climate information services are relevant for everything from design standards for homes, commercial buildings and infrastructure to business structuring and financing. Climate data are essential inputs for government officials responsible for the management of public finances, assets, such as electricity grids, government buildings and roads, and services such as emergency response and assistance. In the private sector, decision-making on input sourcing, facility siting, insurance needs, employee health and much more can be strengthened by gaining a better understanding of future climate. The insurance industry is one sector that is already relatively advanced in sourcing and applying climate data in their decision-making processes. However, companies in all fields need to prepare for climate change and could benefit from tailored climate information services.

Overall, decision-makers from both private and public sectors typically want climate data that cover their local area to as fine a scale as possible in formats that they can easily understand and incorporate into existing decision-making frameworks. In most cases, however, there is a gap between what is currently available and what they need. Climate information services can also carry associated costs that some cannot afford, leaving them unprepared for foreseeable climate change.

Potential climate model users also face several other challenges: many do not have the expertise to choose the best model (or ensemble of models), nor adequate knowledge to apply them— and model scales may lack required details or may not take local climate features into account. On the other hand, uncertainty increases as modelled data is downscaled, which may cause some end-users to dismiss the data altogether and to opt for seemingly low-regret decisions, such as doing nothing28.

28 Adapted from WMO Bulletin Vol 67 (2) 2018 K. Bell-Pasht, D. Krechowicz; https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/why-does-access-good-climate-data-matter

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A key challenge is the translation of climate projection outputs into usable climate risk information in increasingly complex scenarios. For example, ecosystem and natural resource management decisions could be more effectively targeted, and with greater confidence in cost/benefit analyses when combined with detailed climate simulations and projections. Ecosystem models coupled to projections of future climates would provide powerful decision support tools.

Australia’s primary industries are well aware of the risks associated with our highly variable climate. These risks are likely to be exacerbated under climate change with increases in temperature, evaporation rates and changing rainfall patterns. Climate change has direct impacts on the productivity and resilience of our farming systems. Combining downscaled regional and decadal climate projections with the digital revolution currently underway in agriculture would allow the sector to maximise opportunities with better information to support decision-making and investments29.

Australia requires climate information that reflects the weather and changing climate of our region, whereas our overseas partners tend to focus on climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The development of information products and services that are fit-for-purpose for Australia requires strong institutions, targeted research efforts, and funding. This needs be accompanied by high level coordination of priorities and investments across governments and agencies. For example, the National Resilience Taskforce has taken a whole-of-government and macro-economic approach to the way Australia prepares for natural hazards and to develop a National Mitigation Framework. The Framework will improve the resilience of critical infrastructure, cities and regions and involved broad consultation with the states and territories and industry partners.

Action:

6) The Advisory Group should consider the potential for the future integration of climate projections and data services. This should include:

6a) the costs, benefits and risks of combining seasonal and regional scale projections in a nationally-consistent framework;

6b) exploring the potential for integration of climate data and projections with other Earth systems information to enhance the relevance and utility of the climate information;

6c) identifying opportunities for co-design with business and community end users in the development of supporting tools and systems.

Australian climate services would ideally be developed through a co-design process where the users of climate information work together with the climate science community to develop effective climate responses. This approach is consistent with the Global Framework for Climate Services which has been developed by the WMO. Climate information that leads to better understanding of the impacts of climate change domestically and internationally, and that can be integrated with social and economic analyses, is critical for managing climate-related risks. Understanding the economic, social and political impacts of a variable and changing climate is fundamental to assessing the consequential risks to Australian society including in regional and remote communities. Ideally,

29 Accelerating Precision Agriculture to Decision Agriculture: https://www.crdc.com.au/sites/default/files/ P2D%20Ecomomic%20impact%20of%20digital%20ag%20-%20AFI%20Final%20Report.pdf

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Australia should build towards a comprehensive national climate service capability that would provide decision makers with climate knowledge tailored to their organisations and sectors, including the risk information required for adaptive responses to climate impacts and natural disasters.

A focus on climate-related risk is increasing demand for the latest science information to be coupled to outreach and engagement capabilities that can tailor and communicate this information to decision makers. This ‘knowledge brokering’ capability is required to translate complex climate science into information products and services needed by the economy. Knowledge brokering forms a connecting bridge between researchers, business and the community and is essential for research to be disseminated, but also for communicating the needs of users for new products or services back to scientists. Knowledge brokers also facilitate new collaborations and maintain existing partnerships between academic, government and private enterprise.

Climate services provide end-users with more tailored information and products specifically targeted at their needs. To do this climate services rely on a multi-model ensembles using downscaled data to provide information on climate and extreme events at appropriate regional and local levels as well as integration with other digital information platforms. These services are therefore dependent on Australia’s continued access to global climate modellings and downscaling programs like CORDEX. Climate services also depend on associated domestic data processing and management capability, and the specialist skills necessary to undertake detailed analysis and interpretation of the model outputs.

Action:

7) The Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub, in conjunction with key partners in the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the university sector should prepare an initial report on options for building a national climate service capability that would provide decision makers with climate risk information tailored to their organisations and sectors.

7a) The ESCC Hub and partners should report to the Advisory Group on their findings by June 2020.

7b) The provision of comprehensive knowledge brokering and climate services needed by industry, government and the community to manage the risks of a variable and changing climate should take account of the initiatives and ongoing work of key research agencies and institutions and state and territory governments.

In considering a national climate service capability, the Committee recommends the Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub should take account of:

the extensive contributions and ongoing work of state and territory governments;

the National Resilience Taskforce and its work to establish a national disaster risk information capability to equip decision makers and Australians with the knowledge they need to prepare for and respond to natural disasters;

the Bureau of Meteorology’s efforts to ensure users of climate information participate in development of climate resilience and risk management tools, models and systems that meet the needs of Australian businesses and communities;

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the CSIRO’s work with the Bureau of Meteorology, Universities and the Australian Antarctic Division on current and future climate risks and climate projections, including the development of the next generation global climate projections and a national downscaling capability through ACCESS;

the CSIRO’s work to integrate climate information into the agricultural digital revolution, improve near-term climate situational awareness, ensure greater resilience of farming systems and increase opportunities to enhance productivity through proven adaptation strategies;

the CSIRO’s research on harnessing digital technologies to improve the targeting and delivery of climate change science and services; and

the ESCC Hub’s own consultation with industry, business and other end users of climate services and engagement with climate product developers and service providers.

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Box 6. Indigenous communities and climate change

Indigenous communities and people are vulnerable to many climate-related risks. Coastal and island communities are on the front line of rising sea levels, rainfall and heat extremes. Many inland regions are likely to experience a hotter and drier climate. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people face the potential loss and degradation of the lands, waters and natural resources that they have relied upon for generations. Climate change poses a major threat to the physical health of Indigenous communities and their ability to sustain their traditional life, languages, knowledge and cultural heritage.

Figure 1. Climate projection of additional hot spells (days over 40°C) and vulnerable (people younger than 10 and over 65 years) Indigenous populations in 2030 under a high emissions scenario30.

At the same time, Indigenous communities are custodians of a wealth of knowledge about Australia’s weather and climate, which underpins Indigenous peoples’ adaptive capacity and strategies in response to climate change. This knowledge provides invaluable experience relevant to contemporary challenges and can complement and benefit climate research and inform climate services and adaptation plans.

The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the National Environmental Science Program is actively engaging with Indigenous stakeholders to provide targeted climate information that is relevant and useful to Indigenous Australian communities, and to explore ways that traditional knowledge can inform the Hub’s research. The Hub’s aim is ongoing collaboration and mutual benefit.

The Hub’s focus is on developing targeted partnerships, expertise and products to meet the needs of Indigenous stakeholders through case studies and engagement with key groups such as the Traditional Owners of the Great Barrier Reef.

30 K. Hennessey et al, 2004 CSIRO Consultancy report for the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment; and Risks from Climate Change to Indigenous Communities in the Tropical North of Australia, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, 2009.

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The Hub’s aim is to learn what climate change information, capacity building and forms of engagement would be of greatest value to Indigenous communities and provide well-informed examples of success that provide the building blocks for future engagement and delivery.

These partnerships will not only guide the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in their ongoing engagement with Indigenous communities, but will also provide the broader climate change science community with information to ensure their climate knowledge products and capacity building activities meet the identified needs of traditional owners.

Artwork: Dixon Patten

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3.5 International Engagement and DependenciesThe challenge of improving understanding, prediction and projection of global climates is too big for any single country to address. The inter-connected nature of the global climate system means that collaborative international effort is essential. To influence the direction, and benefit from the outcomes of this international research, Australia and its scientific community must be actively engaged in key international research and policy.

Australia provides world-class research and input to international efforts such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Grand Challenges and CMIP and CORDEX projects. This research is needed, recognised and valued by our international partners and critically ensures Southern Hemisphere, Southern Ocean and Antarctic climate drivers remain areas of international focus. It is vital to maintain strong levels of engagement with international programs, initiatives and research groups as Australia needs access to global data, information and expertise. It also allows the opportunity for Australian and Southern Hemisphere issues and priorities to be incorporated into global initiatives.

International engagement and participation should be improved and enhanced to further harness international resources and expertise in priority climate research for Australia. A plan and process to coordinate engagement would position the Australian research community to maximise the benefits and opportunities current engagement does, and enhanced engagement could, provide. The lack of current funding mechanisms to facilitate international engagement is a recurring challenge for research groups. Often program funding is limited to domestic activities only which does not consider the critical contributions made by international partners, or the need to maintain active engagement with them.

Australia will continue to be reliant on international partnership and collaboration. The relatively small, but strategic investments that Australia makes in building climate science partnerships, leverages access to global capabilities that Australia could not otherwise afford. Partnerships that provide access to observations, weather and climate modelling capability and satellite data are particularly important.

The development of global climate models is representative of multinational global science initiatives on par with collaborations in particle physics, astronomy and the genomics. Climate model development requires a major investment of scientific time, effort and resources by our international partners. Australia’s own ACCESS model is dependent on our partnerships with the United Kingdom Met Office and other Unified Model Partnership countries such as India, New Zealand South Korea and associate partners such as NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Similarly it is vital we continue to engage with and contribute to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), the CORDEX regional climate modelling experiments and the IPCC Assessment Reports that draw on the outputs of these programs, in order to maintain influence and access to the latest research, data and analysis generated from global climate model research initiatives. Critical research and data is also provided

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through frameworks such as the NASA Earth Observing System and the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Climate Observing System.

Our ability to benefit from international infrastructure and expertise cannot be taken for granted and will always be conditional upon Australia playing its role as a steward of Southern Hemisphere climate science and observations. Australia makes significant investments in climate science and remains a major contributor to global science efforts, especially in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, where our research is critical given most of the observed ocean heat uptake has occurred there. Likewise we must maintain and continue our research efforts in the Pacific and Indian oceans through research organizations like the Western Australian Marine Science Institute (WAMSI) and the Australian Institute for Marine Science (AIMS).

To ensure Australia has the scientific capability to exploit opportunities and deliver information and capacity into our region, it is essential we continue our engagement with other countries in collaborative international climate research programs. Australia and the Asia-Pacific region already have a demonstrable vulnerability to climate variability and extremes and climate change may exacerbate these challenges. Australia also contributes to international field experiments, such as the ‘Years of the Maritime Continent’ project. The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent archipelago, a unique mixture of islands and seas straddling the equator between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, plays a pivotal role in global climate processes. Predicting extreme events and related diurnal cycle, synoptic weather systems, interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the timing and intensity of monsoons is of paramount socioeconomic benefit to Northern Australia, our region and the world31.

There are opportunities to leverage international investment and capability to address domestic information needs and science priorities. These include enhanced involvement in the European Union’s (EU) Horizon 2020 climate research programs, the EU Copernicus Earth observation program, new satellite missions, the World Climate Research Programme, the World Meteorological Organisation’s Integrated Global Observing System, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Word Bank and Green Climate Fund, the expansion of the Argo ocean float network and other observational and modelling projects. Sustained, well curated and globally shared Australian observations, and ongoing commitment to premier global monitoring facilities, such as Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station and its science program, make Australia an integral part of the international research effort. In turn, our participation is the currency that earns our access to valuable data from overseas.

Action:

8) Agencies should maintain a national research focus on priority climate regions for Australia and the Southern Hemisphere, such as the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

8a) these national priorities require maintaining strong engagement with international programs including IPCC, WCRP Grand Challenges and CMIP6, as well as sustained observations and data collection, stewardship of and access to Australian data collections , to ensure continuing domestic access to international data sources and capabilities.

31 See: ‘Years of the Maritime Continent’; https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/ymc/54

Australia also has opportunities to significantly extend and enhance the direct and strategic benefits to Australian and Asia-Pacific users of climate information from involvement in global climate science. Australia recognises a stable, secure and prosperous Pacific is increasingly threatened by the impacts of climate change.

Many Pacific and Indian Ocean nations are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, waves, and extreme weather events which directly impact access to food, water and income and affect island morphology, coastal flooding and erosion/deposition processes. Changes to our regional neighbours’ economies and livelihoods threaten the stability of already complex political and social relations, increasing displacement and migration pressures and obstructing potential for economic development. In 2015, Australia committed to provide AUD 1 billion in climate finance through the Australian aid program to support developing countries to build resilience and reduce emissions. Australia is on track to meet this commitment, having spent $766 million in the first three years of the five year commitment period, including $84.57 million in the Pacific in 2017/18. To ensure the value of these investments are maximised, deeper understanding of and sustained engagement with Pacific based researchers and users of climate information is essential, including supporting the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS).

Action:

9) Agencies should work in collaboration to support the provision of climate services in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in the South Pacific region through:

9a) the Australia-Pacific Climate Change Action Program (APCCAP) through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade;

9b) Partnerships and collaboration with corporate and government enterprises financing climate adaptation initiatives.

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3.6 Research Coordination and FundingStrong governance, coordination and the efficient resourcing of contributing research agencies, programs and centres is integral to delivering useful climate science to decision makers and the public.

The short-term funding cycles for many climate research groups and collaborations is a major impediment to building strong, coherent and long-lasting communities of climate science research which intern impedes achieving research outcomes. Changes to climate science programs and staffing will also have long-term implications for climate science in Australia.

The 2016 National Research Infrastructure Roadmap identified “Earth and Environmental Systems” as one of its nine priority areas. This and the Roadmap’s prioritisation of high performance computational infrastructure, are important inclusions for the maintenance and development of skills and capabilities in climate change science.

Many of Australia’s climate change research groups are on short-term funding arrangements, and yet they have evolved into essential components of Australia’s climate change research capability. Recognising and valuing the strengths of Australian climate science expertise and the vital role our institutions and the researchers themselves play is important in a complex field requiring ongoing investments in research infrastructure, skills and capabilities.

Figure 9. Key Institutions and organisations involved in Australian climate science

The university sector, and government funding programs and agencies, have critical roles in training, developing and supporting climate scientists and support staff. Universities provide the next generation of climate researchers for government and the private sector. Priorities for training and development need to be informed by the skills and research fields required to better understand climate and climate change impacts on Australia.

The university sector also provides for and engages in the critical “blue-sky” high-risk research from which new knowledge and many scientific advances owe their origins. This kind of research is not necessarily driven by a specific goal but is exploratory by intention. Scientists aim to understand the world and processes around them—and can reveal valuable and applicable knowledge as a consequence—but not as the goal. In 1831 when physicist Michael Faraday displayed his new invention, the electric dynamo; the question arose ‘what can it be used for?’ The answer at that time was very little. Today however the developed, refined and applied knowledge from the first dynamo drives the electric vehicle revolution forward at an extraordinary pace—and simultaneously offers the potential to de-carbonise vehicle transportation worldwide. This is the essence and the promise of blue-sky science.

The opportunity to pursue scientific knowledge in a traditional research context yielded the fundamental knowledge on which our current climate science, models and weather forecasts are built. Today this knowledge informs countless decisions and affects millions of lives every day for the better. The flow-through benefits of climate science go well beyond the research and academic sector. Ongoing investment in the of human capital needs of climate science, and the resources vital to its success, will continue to create highly skilled jobs. For example, in high performance computing and the emerging fields of climate services, products and knowledge, and provide for new businesses and services that decision makers increasingly need.

However, Australia’s climate science research landscape is complex, with multiple Government agencies having responsibility for different research groups, research infrastructure and assets. This is overlaid with multiple networks of data sharing, interdependencies and collaboration. Bringing together the climate science researchers, funders and users can help ensure Australia’s science efforts become more consistent and work efficiently to deliver the science we need. Coordination and funding need to be consistent and predictable to deliver the maximum return on investment in an environment where research needs are often complex and require long-term investment of time and resources. Interdependencies among programs supported by different agencies and portfolios need to be considered for large-scale and long-term climate research to be successful. From the research point of view, systems need to be structured to minimise the amount of time and energy expended to secure funding and support, often from multiple sources.

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Figure 10. Australian Government funded climate research activities and collaborative networks.

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These objectives can be pursued by an overarching and representative coordinating body or group that can act as an advisory forum for the national climate science effort. In addition to existing Committee representation this body should be comprised of a mix of senior officials and researchers representing the primary science delivery agencies, research and education institutions, climate information service users, states and territories. Commonwealth Government departments responsible for funding and managing Australian climate research and infrastructure should also be represented with the addition of the Department of Education as the primary agency for research infrastructure funding. The group would be supported by the Department of the Environment and Energy and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.

Action:

10) Reform and expand the National Climate Science Advisory Committee into a Climate Science Advisory Group to provide high level advice on and coordination of Australia’s climate science effort, and publicly-funded research infrastructure. In its work, the Group should:

10a) consider the current human capital needs and resourcing levels of the existing scientific effort across the core climate research domains;

10b) consider the critical research skills and capabilities necessary to meet Australia’s future climate science challenges with regards to emerging global megatrends and pace of technological advancement;

10c) prepare an implementation plan to prioritise and coordinate Australian climate research, with consideration of the work of the states and territories, to fully utilise the national climate science capability.

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Appendix 1. Current initiatives in Australian climate scienceThe National Science Statement of March 2017 recognises that science is a collaborative, international endeavour, and will deliver continuing economic and social benefits that ensure our ongoing prosperity. There is an extensive body of publicly-funded climate research already underway in Australia, including the initiatives detailed below.

The National Environmental Science Program (NESP) is a long-term commitment by the Government to environment and climate research. NESP has funding of $145 million for six research hubs from 2015 to 2021, of which the Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub received funding of $23.9 million. The role of the Hub is to ensure Australia’s policy and management decisions are effectively informed by Earth systems and climate science, now and into the future. The Hub is a national collaboration between the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Bureau of Meteorology, the University of NSW, Australian National University, Monash University, the University of Melbourne and the University of Tasmania. The Hub has world-leading capability in multi-disciplinary Earth system science and modelling and provides information to underpin efficient and effective adaptation responses.

The Bureau of Meteorology carries out research on climate change, climate variability and seasonal prediction. Paramount to the success of climate change initiatives and advancing our understanding of climate change and variability is ensuring the scientific community have access to high-quality observational data and high quality global and regional climate modelling capabilities. The Bureau continues to fund the curation of vital data sets such as the Australian Combined Observational Reference Network for Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) and the National Tidal Centre sea level data, to better characterise changes in climate over the past century. The Bureau and CSIRO in collaboration with ANSTO also operate the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, and the Cape Grim Science Program that delivers these baseline data to global bodies such as Global Atmospheric Watch.

The Bureau is producing the first high-resolution atmospheric regional reanalysis for Australia (BARRA), using Australia’s national weather and climate model (ACCESS). The project has significant co-funding from Tasmanian, New South Wales and other emergency service agencies and research institutes for their regions of interest. BARRA will produce detailed information on past weather, derived from historical regional observations, providing researchers with a consistent method of representing the atmosphere over multiple decades.

CSIRO has been investing in atmospheric, ocean and climate science for over three decades, and have co-led (with the BoM) all the national and regional climate change research programs over that period (such as the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, South East Australia Climate Initiative, Pacific Climate Change Science Program). CSIRO is currently the lead agency hosting the National Environmental Science Program’s Earth System and Climate Change Hub.

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CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre was established in 2016 to provide a core capability in climate and Earth system modelling and projections, and observations of the atmosphere, ocean and climate system, to better understand and assess climate variability and change in the past, present and future. The Centre’s priority is delivery of world-class climate science to support the climate mitigation and adaptation needed for an effective national response to the challenges of a variable and changing climate. The Centre leads the development of the physical global climate and Earth System configurations of ACCESS, and submission to CMIP. It also plays a leadership role in key national and global observing programs. The Centre has a staff of around 150 researchers and an annual budget of approximately $25 million.

The Climate Science Centre includes a new multi-year initiative ($37 million from 2016 to 2025) to develop reliable decadal climate forecasts to enable decision makers in agriculture, energy, water, health, financial, insurance and other sectors to manage the risks and impacts arising from decadal variations in climate. Anticipating the climate of the coming decades is a difficult scientific challenge, in part because both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change influence climate on these timescales. The Centre is developing and testing a prototype decadal forecasting system, a first for Australia. To develop a deeper understanding of the role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate system CSIRO has collaborated with the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM) in China, the University of New South Wales and the University of Tasmania, to create the $20 million Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR). Based in Hobart, the Centre conducts fundamental research on the ocean’s role in a changing climate leading to information, products and services to assist Australia better manage the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

In 2015, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology developed and released a comprehensive set of climate projections developed for Australia. The projections and underpinning data are accessible through the Climate Change in Australia website. The climate change projections use approximately 40 global climate models driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. The scenarios are presented for eight regions of Australia which each show different affects and impacts of climate change now and into the future. 21 land and ocean climate variables are analysed in the projections in four 20-year time periods centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Climate Change in Australia provides 14 interactive tools for exploring the data at different levels of complexity, to help improve accessibility, useability and applicability of the projections for government and business.

The extensive work of the Australian Antarctic Science Program institutions is another critical component of the climate science research effort. This program is delivered through the Australian Antarctic Division of the Department of the Environment and Energy in collaboration with over 100 Australian and international researchers, and places a major research focus on Antarctica and Southern Ocean climate, fisheries and ecosystems. The Australian Government has committed over $2 billion to enhance Australia’s Antarctic logistics and science capabilities, including the provision of a new state-of-the-art research and resupply icebreaker, RSV Nuyina, due to commence operation in 2020/21, a new research station on Macquarie Island, establish a traverse capability to access the interior of the Australian Antarctic Territory to drill an ice core in excess of a million years old and to develop year round aviation access to Davis research station. The Government has also announced it will invest more

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than $450 million over the next ten years to upgrade Antarctic research stations and supporting infrastructure. These investments are additional to the Australian Antarctic Division’s ongoing investment in Antarctic climate science, valued at around $29 million per year.

Capability has also been enhanced by new investments through the Australian Research Council (ARC), including:

the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ($30.05 million from 2018-19 to 2024-25) to support research projects that will transform our understanding of past and present climate extremes and enhance our ability to predict them.

the Special Research Initiative in Excellence in Antarctic Science ($56 million from 2019-20 to 2025-26) administered by the ARC, which will provide Antarctic researchers in Australian universities the opportunity to seek funding to support their work which may include climate science.

In addition, the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership grant program of $5 million per year for 10 years commenced on 1 July 2019 to support collaborative Antarctic science, research and innovation. This program will build on the work of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) which has been funded under the Cooperative Research Centres Program since 1991. The ACE CRC, which closed in June 2019, has been Australia’s primary vehicle for understanding the role of the Antarctic region in the global climate system and implications for marine ecosystems.

The Government has provided $6.1 million over 3 years from 2018-19 for work with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the Department of the Environment and Energy to provide climate data, information and tools to assist in making the National Electricity Market resilient to the impacts of weather and climate extremes. The project will use the ACCESS model suite to generate downscaled future climate projections for a range of climate scenarios out to 2060.

Australia’s states and territories are making important contributions to domestic and international climate knowledge. For example, the states and territories are applying the outputs of global climate models to produce detailed climate information at local scale. These local- and regional-scale climate projections allow state and local governments, businesses and communities to understand and prepare for climate change at the community level, including effects on water resources, agriculture, energy and coasts. Anticipating these effects helps decision makers maximise opportunities and manage risks from climate change.

The Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) was established in August 2017 with an investment of $30 million over seven years from the ARC. The University of New South Wales, Monash University, the Australian National University, the University of Melbourne, and the University of Tasmania, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales Government’s Research Attraction and Acceleration Program and the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage form the core partnership for the Centre. CLEX also works in close partnership with the National Computational Infrastructure Facility (NCI) and the NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.

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CLEX’s research focuses on the physical processes underlying extreme rainfall, droughts, heatwaves and cold air outbreaks; understanding the physics, dynamics and biology of climate extremes and translating this information into climate models, including ACCESS. In addition, CLEX has established two industry partnerships: Risk Frontiers, an industry funded research centre focussed on risk; and the Managing Climate Variability Program, which helps link weather and climate information with the agricultural sector. The Centre aims to help reduce Australia’s economic, social and environmental vulnerability to climate extremes.

The $1.0 million Climate Data Enhanced Virtual Laboratory (DEVL) is a collaborative project building more effective climate science data and analysis tools. The Bureau is working with the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC), the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX), CSIRO, and the NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub (ESCC) on the project which will support Australia’s role in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the complementary Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX).

Australia’s ability to understand climates of the deep past is greatly enhanced through our participation in the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), through a $1.5 million per year membership contribution as part of the Australia-New Zealand IODP Consortium funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC). The IODP provides scientific drilling infrastructure to obtain seafloor samples including cores recording past climate. IODP has invested $272 million for drilling around Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica during 2017-2019, and has provided critical paleoclimate records including in the eastern Indian Ocean, the Antarctic Ocean, and the Great Barrier Reef.

The Government also is supporting the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP). RRAP is a collaboration of Australia’s leading marine science and other experts to create a suite of innovative measures to help preserve and restore the Great Barrier Reef. RRAP’s concept feasibility phase includes reviewing existing reef research and technology and consulting with industry and the community. The RRAP is being progressed by a partnership including: the Australian Institute of Marine Science, CSIRO, Great Barrier Reef Foundation, James Cook University, The University of Queensland, Queensland University of Technology, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and researchers from other organisations. RRAP is the largest, most comprehensive program of its type in the world and the resulting technology could be used worldwide to help improve the resilience of coral reefs to climate change impacts.

In 2016, the Australian Government commissioned the development of a National Research Infrastructure Roadmap—outlining the national research infrastructure required over the coming decade to support Australia’s world class research system—by an Expert Working Group chaired by Australia’s Chief Scientist. The Roadmap identified “Earth and environment systems” as a national research infrastructure focus area. The Government has responded to the Roadmap, releasing a National Research Infrastructure Investment Plan which sets out a long-term vision for research infrastructure. Specific investments in earth systems and climate science include:

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$309.4 million to 2028-29 to support infrastructure with a focus on earth and environmental systems, including:

o full utilisation of the Marine National Facility’s RV Investigator ($31.2 million over 5 years) delivering 300 days per year of merit-based access for on-water research.

o maintenance of data streams through equipment upgrades and use of the latest technologies for IMOS ($22 million over 5 years) and TERN ($5.1 million over 5 years).

o improvement of IT platforms maintained by AuScope ($1.5 million over 5 years) to improve earth imaging.

$70 million for upgrades to the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) (announced December 2017), which will enable improvements in climate model development.

Scoping study funding to enhance the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) weather and climate model.

Scoping study funding to explore building upon existing infrastructure in environmental science to provide a national environmental prediction system including ecosystem modelling capability.

The initiatives outlined above form the core funding of Australia’s climate research effort, but gaps in our effort and understanding remain. The purpose of this strategy is to focus the existing significant national investment in climate research to deliver the maximum benefit from our scientific effort for Australia, in light of the risks and impacts posed by climate change.

There is a vast breadth of work in these climate research initiatives currently underway which are built on a significant history of Australian and international climate science and investment over several decades. All of these initiatives make important contributions to Australian climate research landscape. There is an opportunity to leverage better outcomes from these investments through improved governance and coordination.

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Appendix 2. Global trends shaping Australian climate researchAustralian climate science continues to evolve in a changing global context of environmental, economic, technological, and social trends. The CSIRO’s 2020 strategy identified global megatrends that will shape Australia’s future and affect science and innovation. Three are of particular relevance to climate science: (i) science and technology will continue to play a large role in driving innovation and change; (ii) the challenges and opportunities arising from global change, including climate change; and (iii) the need for efficient use of the planet’s increasingly constrained mineral, water, energy and food resources. The Australian climate research landscape will continue to be shaped by these global factors over the next decade through four primary drivers:

1. International agreementsUnder the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and further progressed at the negotiations in Katowice Poland in 2018, countries agreed to strengthen the global response to climate change by holding the increase in average global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks of impacts of climate change. The global transformations this goal implies present challenges and opportunities for all sectors of the Australian economy and society, our regional neighbours, and our trading partners. Australia has other international environmental commitments, such as the Stockholm Convention, Montreal Protocol, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the World Climate Research Programme and global observing programs that require ongoing research, observations and reporting.

2. Managing carbonMitigating global climate change is largely about managing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require all parties to the agreement, including Australia, to assess, manage and report on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Verifying the efficacy of carbon management policies and tracking the response in global GHG levels will demand ongoing observations, assessments and the ability to provide future scenarios.

3. Sustainability and securityThe sustainable use of water, energy and food resources requires a scientific evidence-base to guide management and policy decisions and needs to include the effects and feedbacks of climate change and variability. Climate change is recognised as a ‘threat multiplier’ to Australia’s national security, especially through changes in the severity and nature of extreme weather and climate events across the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian regions.

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4. Growing demand for climate informationA global surge in demand for quality climate information is being driven by the finance, insurance and legal business sectors as they recognise and address the financial and regulatory risks associated with climate change. The demand for information at increasingly finer temporal and spatial scales, and for probabilities around extreme events, will push the boundaries of our knowledge and predictive ability. To meet the growing demand for climate change services for input to mitigation and adaptation plans, climate information needs to be relevant, credible, readily available, application-ready and able to be integrated into other decision frameworks.

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National Climate Science Advisory CommitteeThe purpose of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee is to advise the Australian Government on a nationally aligned and integrated approach to climate science, which will inform the direction and sustainability of Australia’s climate science capability and research priorities.

The National Climate Science Advisory Committee will:

1) advise the Government on the development of a strategy for climate science in Australia, including:

a) Australia’s climate science priorities, capabilities and resources, including a stocktake of existing capabilities and options for addressing any gaps;

b) consolidation of commitments from key climate science delivery agents for current and future resourcing of the strategy; and

c) ongoing climate science community coordination arrangements.2) provide an ongoing forum to coordinate and drive local and international collaboration across

key climate science agencies, investors and users of science.3) promote Australia’s climate science research capability with both Australian and international

stakeholders.

Committee Members Dr Katherine Woodthorpe AO FTSE FAICD (Chair), independent director with demonstrated

national leadership and experience in government and scientific research

Mr John Gunn FTSE, independent senior scientist and Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering

Associate Professor Julie Arblaster, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University

Professor Mark Howden, Director, The Australian National University Climate Change Institute

Professor Timothy Naish FRSNZ, Director, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand

Dr Alan Finkel AO FAA FTSE, Australia’s Chief Scientist

Dr Heather Smith PSM, Secretary, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science

Mr Finn Pratt AO PSM, Secretary, Department of the Environment and Energy

Dr Andrew Johnson, Director, Bureau of Meteorology

Dr Helen Cleugh, Director Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Science Centre

Dr David Karoly FAA, Director, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, National Environmental Science Program

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Dr Gwen Fenton, Chief Scientist, Australian Antarctic Division

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