CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THECANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR

Roger StreetMonirul Mirza

PROGRAM ON ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP JANUARY 22-24, 2003

MAJOR OBJECTIVES

To develop nationally consistent set of historical and future climate scenarios for the energy sector

To provide guidance to impact researchers/users

Revision of the energy sector chapter of the Canada Country Study

Major Deliverables

Statement of energy sector historical and future scenarios needs through a web workshop

Development of historical and future climate scenarios

Energy sector climate impact report Examination of the conclusions of

the Canada Country Study Energy Chapter

On-going guidance on the scenarios

Web-Workshop for Scenarios Needs assessment

A Web-Workshop organized during 11-14 December, 2001

Comprised of five sessions –four main sessions and the concluding session

60 stakeholders registered Government (75%), Industry (12%),Consultants (12%) and Academia (1%)

Session I: State of Art Techniques for Scenarios Construction

Principal Focus: Sources of the GCM data How scenarios are constructed from GCMs Downscaling techniques Uncertainties in GCM Scenarios Construction of Historical Scenarios Interpretation and Usefulness of Scenarios

Session I-Issues Raised

Access to Climate Scenarios Utility of Downscaling Techniques The Need for Multiple Scenarios Challenge of Incorporating

Extreme Weather Events into Scenarios

Temporal and Spatial scale Issues

Session II-Climate Change Scenarios

The Types of Scenarios Spatial and Temporal aspect of the

scenarios Experience of use of scenarios in

the Energy Sector

Session II-Issues Raised

Use of scenarios in risk management

Estimation of tolerable risk Cascading effect of uncertainties Use of current information for risk

management

Session III-Scenarios for the Energy Sector

Requirement of scenarios for the energy sector (fossil and renewable)

Session III-Issues Raised

Understanding adaptive capacities Non uniform scenarios requirement

for various stakeholders Use of Scarce modelling resources Supply of unnecessary information Engage key people in the industry

to identify their needs

Session IV-Vulnerabilities and Adaptation

Vulnerabilities to climate change Past adaptation measures

incorporated in the energy sector Effectiveness of the past

adaptation measures Future Adaptation measures and

strategies

Session IV-Issues Raised

Planning of the energy system to reduce vulnerability, damage and increase resiliency

Adaptability of the Canadian Energy Sector

Temporal and Spatial scale scenarios may not to attract stakeholders

Session V-Conclusions

Energy sector demonstrated interest in scenarios of extremes and return periods

Multiple scenarios are useful to capture uncertainties and tolerable risk

More interactions between modellers and stakeholders

Session V-Conclusions

Engagement of stakeholders is vital for identifying research requirements for scenarios, impacts and adaptation

Alternative method of engagement must be sought

Energy Sub-Sectors Temp. Precip. Lake Water

Level

Wind Waves

Energy Exploration (Offshore)

X X

Energy Generation (Hydro) X X X

Renewable (Wind) X

Renewable (Solar) X

Transmission (Electricity) X X

Energy Demand (Electricity) X

Energy Demand (Natural Gas)

X

Pipe Line X

Transport by Ship (Coal) X

Transportation of Crude Oil

Summary of Climate Scenario Requirements

Energy Sub-Sectors Snow & Ice Cover

Sea Ice

Storm Cloud Cover

Rel. Humidity

Sea Level Pressure

Energy Exploration (Offshore)

X

Energy Generation (Hydro)

X X

Renewable (Wind)

Renewable (Solar) X

Transmission (Electricity)

X X

Energy Demand (Electricity)

X

Energy Demand (Natural Gas)

Pipe Line

Transport by Ship (Coal)

Transportation of Crude Oil

X

Climate Impact Report-Approaches

Vulnerability and Adaptation Approach Review of the Canada Country Study

1998-Energy Chapter Identification of gaps in Knowledge

and approach Updated knowledge/information on

vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA)

A Framework of VIA for the Energy Sector

Climate Impact Report

Section I: Executive SummarySection II: IntroductionDraws information from-

-PERD proposal-Canada Country Study Energy

Chapter-IPCC TAR-Web Workshop Synthesis

Climate Impact Report

Section III: Historical & Future Climate Change

Historical Climate Variability Temperature, precipitation, wind

speed, relative humidity, sea level rise and lake water level

Climate Change Scenarios Extreme Events-Historical & Future

Climate Impact Report

Section IV: Canada Country Study-Identifying Gaps in VIA

Impacts on Fossil and Renewable Energy

Gaps in Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation

Climate Impact Report

Section V: Canadian Energy Sector-Climate Variability and Change and Adaptation

Three Case Studies on vulnerability and adaptation

Attributes of climate vulnerability Present barriers of adaptation and future

potentiality Vulnerability and adaptation framework

Development of Historical Scenarios Collection of Data from the

Meteorological Services, Canada The data include:

-Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, etc.

Development of a software STECA(Statistical Tool for Extreme Climate

Analyses)

Main Features of STECA A preprocessing facility for extraction

of extreme value series A large number of probability

distributions: Normal Gumbel Pearson Type 3 Weibull Log-Pearson Type 3 Log-normal

Main Features of STECA Two different parameter estimation

methods: Method of moments Method of L-moments (probability

weighted moments) Validation tests:

Mann-Kendall test Mann-Whitney U test Box Plot Randomness Test Serial Correlation

Main Features of STECA Two non-parametric goodness-of-fit

statistics: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Probability plot correlation coefficient

(PPCC) Climatic parameter computation

routines: Degree Days Heat Index Wind Chill Heat / Cold Wave

SAMPLE STECA Menus

SAMPLE STECA Menus

Historical Scenario Construction

Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) Collected

Data include:-Temperature-precipitation-wind speed-Relative Humidity

7848 Stations Data Extracted

Data Extraction for Analysis

466 stations extracted as class A station

WMO 3/5 rules were applied-Not more than 5 total and 3

consecutive missing days in a month

-For a total value, no missing values are allowed

Historical Climate Products

General statistics Extreme values Return periods of annual max. and

min Heating and cooling degree days Climate normals for 1951-1980

and 1961-1990

Historical Climate Products

Heat Index Windchill Frequency analysis of Heat Index

and Windchill Percentiles Heat wave and cold wave

SAMPLE OUTPUT FILESample Statistics calculated by Method of Product Moment

StationID Mean Std CV Skew Max Min Lat Long StationName

8100200 5.64 9.28 1.64 -0.44 25.3 -25.3 45.6 -64.95 ALMA

8100300 3.98 11.95 3 -0.39 28.6 -32.3 46.8 -67.72 AROOSTOOK

8100566 3.43 11.37 3.31 -0.31 26.7 -30.3 46.65 -67.58 BON ACCORD

8100590 5.38 10.86 2.02 -0.21 30 -26.3 46.52 -64.72 BUCTOUCHE

8100880 3.19 11.47 3.6 -0.28 27.2 -29.6 47.98 -66.33 CHARLO A

8101200 4.73 11.26 2.38 -0.32 28.3 -29.4 46.55 -66.15 DOAKTOWN

8101500 5.5 11.01 2 -0.33 28.1 -28.6 45.87 -66.53 FREDERICTON A

Station 5-Year 10-Year 20-year 25-year 50-Year 75-year 100-year

1016940 31.25 32.37 33.45 33.79 34.84 35.45 35.88

1017230 34.66 35.94 37.17 37.56 38.77 39.47 39.96

1018620 32.15 33.37 34.54 34.91 36.06 36.73 37.2

1018935 29.03 30.59 32.09 32.56 34.02 34.87 35.47

1021261 34.81 36.22 37.57 38 39.32 40.09 40.63

1021480 29.81 31.04 32.22 32.6 33.75 34.42 34.89

1021830 32.27 33.39 34.47 34.82 35.87 36.48 36.92

SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE-MAX TEMP-GUMBEL METHOD

Future Directions

Making Available Historical Climate Scenarios in the CCIS’ Website

Training Workshop Energy Sector Climate Impact Report Release of the STECA Software Heating and Cooling degree days Extremes