Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and

Society

Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

Presentation Outline

• Climate and Society Interaction- current status

• Climate Change- Emerging trends• Socio-Economic Systems-Emerging

trends• Climate Risk Management- CCA and DRR

Integration framework• Take Home Points• Exercise

Monsoon Aberration 2002- IndiaDrought 2002

Prayers for Rain

Though Seasonal total isThough Seasonal total isalmost same ,1973 was a almost same ,1973 was a Drought year- India Drought year- India (Semi-arid zone)(Semi-arid zone)

Prediction of dry and wet Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale ofspells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning Critical operational planning In agricultureIn agriculture

Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

Long-Term Decadal Climate Variability

Climate Effects of El Nino

El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Year

Pal

ay P

rodu

ctio

n ( x

100

0 M

T)

El Nino

El Nino

El Nino

El Nino

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Imp

or

(ju

ta t

on

)

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

Pro

du

ks

i be

ras

(juta

ton

)

Banned using 57 pesticides

Release of HY var., increase of rice price

Withdraw subsidy for pesticide

El-Nino

Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas

El-Nino

El-Nino

Improve technology and extensification

Withdraw subsidy, political crisis

Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice

Imp

ort

(M

illio

n T

on

nes

)R

ice Pro

du

ction

(Mill io

n T

on

nes)

National Rice Production

El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia

Com

mun

ity

leve

l sup

port

Coping mechanisms

NGO’s

Friends, neighbor's

and relatives

Local Government

Hou

seho

ld le

vel a

djus

tmen

ts

Household and community level

Non-agricultural

adjustments

Agricultural adjustments

Foreign aid

Beyond community level

National Government

Civil society organizations

Climate and society

Drought Shocks and Policy Response- India

1877

Drought Events

Major Policy Interventions

Famine Codes

1965

Green Revolution and FCI

Scarcity Relief

1972

Employment Generation Programmes

Drought Relief

1979

ContingencyCropPlan

DroughtManagement

1987

WatershedApproach

WaterManagement

2002? ? ? ?

Each round represent death of one million people

Each round represent around fifty million people affected

Drought Impacts on Agricultural

Production – India

Monsoon Rainfall % Deviation from Normal

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

%

% Deviation

+20

-20 1965

ncfc

1972 1979 19871951 2002

GDP (1993-94 Prices)

% Annual Change

1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

%

GDP

+20

-201965

ncfc

19791987

1951

1972

2002

Agricultural Production% Annual Change

1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

%

Agr.Prodn.

+20

-20

ncfc

1979

19871951 1972

20021965

In India, national level resilience increased, however house hold vulnerability remains

The long-term context for contemporary warming

2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000Timely and accurate forecastPoor emergency preparedness

Climate Change, Variability and extremes

Source: WMO

Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950

Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins

Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?

Developing Countries are Hit the Hardest…

(Source: CRED)

A Growing population……

• The world population reaches 6.66 billions (2008)

• +80 millions /year,

• (equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam)

• In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

Urban population (%)

Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004

Urban world population

Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004

31.6% of urban population is living in slums

NASA, DSMP

Homo Sapiens: an urban species

Climate Forecasting Applications -

Bangladesh Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks

Aez 3: Tista MeanderFloodplain

Rangpur, Panchagarh,Dinajpur, Bogra,Jaipurhat,(small part),Naogaon (small part) andRajshahi (small part)

Rabi Crop - Aus/Jute-F Wheat-Aus/Jute-FMustard-Aus/Jute-FVeg (R)-Aus/Jute-FOnion/Garlic-Jute-F

Forecast-Aus/Jute-T.Aman

Wheat-Aus/Jute-T.AmanPotato-Jute-T.AmanTobacco-T.Aus-T.AmanWheat-Forecast-T.AmanBoro-Forecast-T.Aman

Forecast-B.Aman Boro-DW T.Aman

Crop ZonesCrop Zones 1960’s1960’s 1990’s1990’s

Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg. Hazard calendar for Bangladesh

RABI KHARIF I KHARIF II RABI Disasters J F M A M J J A S O N D

Early floods Mid floods Late floods Flash floods Local floods/inundation False on-set of rains Early season drought Mid season drought Terminal drought Seasonal drought Hail storms North Westerly High wind velocity High temperature Low temperature

Food demand and hunger: • The World Food Summit (WFS) estimated that approximately

840 million people in developing countries subsisted on diets that are deficient in calories

• 96% of these food insecure people suffer from chronic deficiencies; more than 25% of children under age 5 in developing countries are malnourished

• Significant population experience temporary energy shortfalls caused by natural disasters of hydro-meteorological origin

• Reducing the undernourished people to halve by the year 2015 is a challenge

Emerging food insecurity- Rice crisis in 2008

Drought reduction in wheat production in Australia

Snow storm in China

reduction in grain production

India withholding rice stocks

Vietnam withholding rice

stocks

International market price shoots up to 40%

Rice price in Thailand shoots up in response to global demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice in farms

Decreasing availability of freshwater for Human Use

Year Population (millions)

Average annual renewable global water resources

(km3)

Potential water

availability (m3/yr)

1960 3039.7 44800 17532

1980 4454.3 44800 10058

2000 6079.0 44800 7370

2025 7835.9 44800 5717

(Source: Marios, 2004)

Understanding Climate Variability and ChangeRecent Advancement in Prediction and Monitoring Science

o Generation of skill-full, reliable and location specific seasonal climate forecasts through statistical and dynamical schemes

o Development of real-time monitoring systems to track the nature of causes and impacts (eg. Satellite meteorology and remote sensing techniques)

o Development of climate change scenarios through Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

Advancement in Risk Management Technologies

• New generation system analysis tools for climate risk analysis, impact assessment and tailoring alternate management/adaptation practices (eg. models for crops and eco-system dynamics)

• Economic models and decision analysis tools to guide in managing risks (eg. models for resource optimization)

• Development of communication and extension technologies (eg. communicating probabilistic climate information)

Potential & Actual Utilization of Climate Information Products

Forecast Users

Forecast Providers

Actual

Potential

Climate Risk Management- Challenges

• Risk Communication– Dealing with uncertainties – Decision research and stakeholder involvement – Integrating climate information into decision making

process

• ADPC experience in risk communication will be shared

Stakeholders Issues Lead Time Planning for early Aus paddy and also late Boro and transplanted Aman paddy Seasonal Forecastharvesting of crops ( I.e. Boro, Aman, Jute) 2 weeks

Planning for culture fisheries

Seasonal Forecast/ 2 Weeks

For preparing trap and protect pond by netting 1 weeks

Labourers Agricultural employment 2 weeksBoatmen Homesteads security 2 weeksTraders Market price, transportation 1 weekWomen managing homesteads 1 week

Farmers

Fishermen

Experiences in generating demand driven climate informationEg. Understanding decision options and lead time requirements of end users

(Bangladesh)

Type of climate information Level of uncertainty

Past climate information  

Climate information monitoring (observed)

+

24-48 Hours weather forecast information

++

5-7 day forecast information +++

Climate forecast information (one month and beyond) (some forecast skill)

++++

Climate change scenario information (distant future)

+++++++++++++

Part 2

Graduated Response to Disaster Risks Graduated Response to Disaster Risks

Seasonal Forecast ( 3-6 months)

Strategic Decisions

20-21 Days Forecasts

Tactical Decision

5-7 days Forecasts

ApplicationsPlanning

Climate Forecast

Applications

• Reduced vulnerability to climate risks

• Minimize losses

• Maximize benefits of good climate

CFA

ProjectInitiation

Research Utilization of Research Products

Climate Forecast Applications Process

Partnership development

Selection of demonstra-tion sites

Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis

Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models

Obtain climate information

Analysis of variability and predictability

Regional climate modeling

Down-scaling

Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system

Decision system

Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization

Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies

Experimen-tal uptake

Capacity building for upscaling

Climate Forecast Applications The need:

Climate forecast information that: is localized

timely

in easily understandable language meets end user needs

The issues:

Capacity to generate the localized information

Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

Early Warning Information

Products

Providing climate outlook

Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook

Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios

Communication on farmers responses/ feedback

End-to-end climate information and application system

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia

Directorate of Plant Protection

IPB

Provision of climate outlook

BMG

Translation of climate outlook

into impact outlook

Indramayu Agriculture Office

Conversion of impact outlook

into crop management

strategies

Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of

farmers response

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines

GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS

Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies

Temperature Anomalies

CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST

Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /

Forum Discussion

Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)

CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS

Near-real-time Data

HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION

Episodic Events Documents

Dumangas Agromet Station

TWG CLIMATE FORUM

Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers

NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer

Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office

IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES

FARMERS

Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo

Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh

Climate, Disasters and Society

BMD

Forecast development and Application technology CFAN/ADPC

Agro met translationFFWC/BWDB Discharge translation

IWM

DMB, DAE

communication

End users

CEGIS, ADPC, CARE

CEGIS, ADPC, CARE

Climate forecastADPC /CEGIS

Way forward….

Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation

Source: WRI, 2007

Adapting Climate Risk Management

• Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change

• Detect observable climate change trends• Confirm observable trends with climate change models• Downscale and provide locally usable climate information • Establish institutional partnership with climate information

providers and users• Community based climate risk management programes

grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.

Take Home Points• Climate Risk is a Development issue.

• Climate Change- Strong evidences and New challenges.

• Climate Risk Management framework- Could be one of the practical Adaptation tools to deal with Uncertainties.

• Adaptation projects and programes could be evolved and implemented by adopting Climate Risk Management frameworks.

.

EXERCISE

Climate Risk =

Climate hazard x Vulnerability

Management

What is climate risk?

Climate Risk =

Climate hazard x Vulnerability

Management

What is climate risk?

Climate Risk =

Climate hazard x Vulnerability

Management

What is climate risk?

Climate Risk =

Climate hazard x Vulnerability

Management

What is climate risk?

Climate and its impacts (Assessment framework)

Hazard agent characteristics Physical impacts Social impacts

Hazard mitigation practices

Emergency preparedness

practices

Extra- community assistance

Community recovery resources

Country Hazard Vulnerability Management Climate risk

Australia 1 1 9 0.1

Thailand 2 2 5 0.8

Vietnam 5 4 4 5

Philippines 9 3 6 6.5

Cambodia 1 5 1 5

Bangladesh 9 6 7 7.7

Group Work (1.5 hours)

1. Form a group (UN agencies, country groups, NGOs)

2. Rank the level of risk in your region/country/village

3. Given the ranking, what kind of risk management options

would you recommend?