CLIMATE REVIEWMarch – April 21, 2021

135th Climate Forum23 April 2021

Prepared by:

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)

PAGASA-DOST, Quezon City

Recent ENSO Conditions

Weather Systems

Climate Assessment

Summary

C O N T E N T S

• A large-scale variability resulting from the interactionsbetween the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.

YOU ARE HERE

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Phases of ENSO:

El Niño – unusual warming in the CEEP

La Niña – unusual cooling in the CEEP

Neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña

February 2021 SST Anom (deg C)

March 2021 SST Anom (deg C)

January 2021 SST Anom (deg C)

Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Assessment

http://seacm.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/analysis/sst/2021/3

ENSO INDICATORS

Oceanic IndicatorExtended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)

Data Source: Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Atmospheric IndicatorSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI)

Data Source: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) standardized anomaly of the mean sea

level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index

(ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. For historical

purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a

minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features

consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

La Niña Advisory # 7Issued: 06 April 2021

• La Niña is now weakening across the tropical Pacific

Ocean.

• Majority of the climate models predict a transition from

La Niña to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral

condition during April-May-June 2021 season.

• La Niña may still affect some parts of the country, which

may significantly result in above normal rainfall

conditions for the month of April 2021.

Actions taken for the current 2020-2021 La NiñaDate Issuances

July 15, 2020 PAGASA Issued La Niña Watch

September 09, 2020 Issued La Niña Alert

October 02, 2020 • Press Briefing/Statement on Onset of La Niña• Issued La Niña Advisory No. 1

Nov 2020 – Apr 2021 • Issued La Niña Advisory No. 2-7

Other Initiatives :• Conduct of Regular Monthly Climate Forum.

• Conduct of Five (5) Provincial Climate Fora (VIA Zoom) on La Niña in cooperation with the PAGASA Regional Services.

• Regular attendance to meetings and special briefings to various government agencies.

• Dissemination of forecasts and advisories thru quad-media.

Weather Systems that affected the country from

March – April 21, 2021

LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS

EASTERLIES

March 2021 April 21, 2021

LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs)

TAIL-END OF FRONTAL SYSTEM

(Shear Line)

NORTHEASTMONSOON

1_TY “BISING” (Apr. 16 - , 2021)Tropical Cyclone

(1)

Weather Systems

Percent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100%Normal Rainfall

Understanding our Rainfall Maps

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than 40 % way below normal

41 – 80 % below normal

81 – 120 % near normal

Greater than 120 % above normal

Climate Assessment

Actual RainfallObserved (mm) % Normal

Normal RR(mm)

(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall for March 2021

PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

ABRA 27.6 72.8 AKLAN 186.9 242.0

BENGUET 147.9 328.5 ANTIQUE 145.5 275.4

IFUGAO 86.4 193.6 CAPIZ 199.3 214.4

KALINGA 40.0 107.8 GUIMARAS 97.8 212.2

APAYAO 25.8 71.0 ILOILO 146.9 215.2

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 69.6 163.7 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 104.3 174.9

REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

ILOCOS NORTE 13.5 38.3 NEGROS ORIENTAL 97.6 164.9

ILOCOS SUR 60.7 141.6 BOHOL 135.4 154.7

LA UNION 126.3 291.4 CEBU 107.6 148.5

PANGASINAN 71.3 115.3 SIQUIJOR 110.9 168.3

REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BATANES 43.5 73.0 BILIRAN 193.2 129.4

CAGAYAN 45.4 99.5 EASTERN SAMAR 446.7 274.5

ISABELA 103.7 123.5 LEYTE 173.3 128.1

NUEVA VIZCAYA 104.9 193.5 NORTHERN SAMAR 380.6 175.8

QUIRINO 137.9 138.4 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 333.8 162.6

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 226.7 189.0

BATAAN 23.9 124.3 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

BULACAN 53.6 92.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 171.4 222.2

NUEVA ECIJA 60.3 77.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 165.6 207.5

PAMPANGA 30.3 96.6 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 150.3 197.5

TARLAC 82.2 100.3 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

ZAMBALES 50.7 157.9 BUKIDNON 134.8 111.0

AURORA 173.2 107.3 CAMIGUIN 153.7 128.5

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 173.2 198.6

METRO MANILA 51.8 447.4 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 187.2 226.3

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 111.2 105.1

BATANGAS 73.8 161.9 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

CAVITE 18.5 259.0 COMPOSTELA VALLEY 247.3 111.4

LAGUNA 102.9 220.5 DAVAO CITY 208.9 154.3

RIZAL 67.2 190.1 DAVAO DEL NORTE 207.4 113.8

QUEZON 307.1 242.9 DAVAO DEL SUR 177.5 166.9

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 140.0 152.4

MARINDUQUE 264.1 256.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 262.5 129.9

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 43.7 111.8 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

ORIENTAL MINDORO 75.5 128.3 SOUTH COTABATO 124.7 148.6

ROMBLON 149.5 227.3 COTABATO 184.1 157.3

PALAWAN 75.7 205.6 SARANGANI 116.9 147.3

REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 155.8 152.9

ALBAY 348.5 194.9 REGION XIII- CARAGA

CAMARINES NORTE 486.6 339.1 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 215.2 118.2

CAMARINES SUR 394.3 271.2 AGUSAN DEL SUR 313.4 115.4

CATANDUANES 291.0 194.6 DINAGAT ISLANDS 332.7 255.7

MASBATE 184.3 169.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 351.9 162.2

SORSOGON 394.9 119.3 SURIGAO DEL SUR 428.2 152.5

ARMM

BASILAN 105.4 165.4

MAGUINDANAO 168.0 152.9

LANAO DEL SUR 199.2 202.9

SULU 110.2 174.3

TAWI-TAWI 114.1 228.5

ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (March 2021)

CONDITION %

WAY BELOW NORMAL 1

BELOW NORMAL 5

NEAR NORMAL 18

ABOVE NORMAL 76

Actual RainfallObserved (mm) % Normal

Normal RR(mm)

(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall for April 1-21, 2021

PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

ABRA 5.8 9.3 AKLAN 70.9 71.0

BENGUET 18.6 19.0 ANTIQUE 49.8 55.1

IFUGAO 13.3 13.7 CAPIZ 81.1 82.4

KALINGA 10.4 18.1 GUIMARAS 36.4 47.8

APAYAO 10.3 22.9 ILOILO 47.9 54.1

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 11.9 14.8 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 41.5 50.5

REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

ILOCOS NORTE 4.6 9.4 NEGROS ORIENTAL 35.3 48.7

ILOCOS SUR 9.9 11.5 BOHOL 53.2 80.5

LA UNION 29.3 38.0 CEBU 44.4 58.8

PANGASINAN 42.8 77.7 SIQUIJOR 23.4 37.1

REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BATANES 20.6 41.3 BILIRAN 179.2 164.3

CAGAYAN 15.3 32.6 EASTERN SAMAR 261.0 158.8

ISABELA 12.7 18.6 LEYTE 106.6 100.6

NUEVA VIZCAYA 12.7 10.8 NORTHERN SAMAR 336.7 242.0

QUIRINO 11.5 8.8 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 264.7 194.2

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 128.5 150.5

BATAAN 2.1 5.9 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

BULACAN 23.3 38.1 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 44.7 47.3

NUEVA ECIJA 14.5 16.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 59.1 58.0

PAMPANGA 22.1 32.7 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 62.1 62.8

TARLAC 41.8 53.6 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

ZAMBALES 35.4 51.9 BUKIDNON 135.2 109.9

AURORA 16.3 10.2 CAMIGUIN 75.7 84.9

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 46.8 45.4

METRO MANILA 26.0 66.1 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 34.9 36.4

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 72.8 73.9

BATANGAS 19.3 26.7 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

CAVITE 1.5 12.0 COMPOSTELA VALLEY 171.1 123.0

LAGUNA 35.5 49.8 DAVAO CITY 251.3 168.1

RIZAL 40.1 69.8 DAVAO DEL NORTE 230.0 172.1

QUEZON 74.4 71.8 DAVAO DEL SUR 183.3 140.8

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 123.6 134.1

MARINDUQUE 57.7 60.6 DAVAO ORIENTAL 148.6 104.7

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 13.3 17.5 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

ORIENTAL MINDORO 19.7 21.4 SOUTH COTABATO 123.4 141.2

ROMBLON 25.6 33.7 COTABATO 185.5 133.3

PALAWAN 86.2 135.3 SARANGANI 107.8 139.7

REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 143.2 126.6

ALBAY 155.5 152.8 REGION XIII- CARAGA

CAMARINES NORTE 132.8 112.4 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 105.3 85.3

CAMARINES SUR 181.4 191.0 AGUSAN DEL SUR 146.9 97.3

CATANDUANES 467.2 325.5 DINAGAT ISLANDS 130.0 93.8

MASBATE 107.8 148.6 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 113.9 67.4

SORSOGON 179.8 148.1 SURIGAO DEL SUR 137.9 73.0

ARMM

BASILAN 59.6 72.2

MAGUINDANAO 162.2 122.4

LANAO DEL SUR 82.4 66.7

SULU 85.9 105.2

TAWI-TAWI 89.7 108.2

ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (April 1-21, 2021)

CONDITION %

WAY BELOW NORMAL 30.1

BELOW NORMAL 30.1

NEAR NORMAL 14.5

ABOVE NORMAL 25.3

TC PASSAGE AND ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (April 2021)

Typhoon “Bising”:• 2nd Tropical Cyclone for 2021• Apr 16, Entered PAR and Intensified as a Typhoon • April 18 – 21, closes to Philippine landmass• Still inside PAR ~ 5 days• 26 Severe Weather Bulletins were issued already

Daily Rainfall (April 16 - 21, 2021)

Source: from Internet

TEMPERATURE ASSESSMENT

Generally near average to cooler days and near average to warmer nights.

0.7

-0.20.0

-0.6

-1.0

0.6

-0.8 -0.8

0.5

1.1

0.60.5

0.8 0.7

1.3

-0.9

1.0

-0.8

0.3 0.2

1.1

-1.9

0.4

-0.5

0.1

-0.3

1.9

0.7

0.1

-1.3

0.9

-0.9

-0.6

-0.2-0.1

0.8

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.2

-2.0

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Tem

p. A

nom

aly

(°C)

Station Name

Maximum Temperature Anomaly for March 2021

1.10.9

2.0 1.92.01.9

2.3

0.8

1.3

0.80.5

-0.1

0.50.3

1.61.61.8

0.7

1.1 1.01.0

-0.5

1.31.3

0.6

-3.0

-0.6

1.6

0.6

1.1

1.5

0.9

2.0

-0.7

0.9

1.4

0.6

1.3

-0.1

0.70.5

0.1

1.8

0.3

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.1

0.5

-0.3

-0.8

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Tem

p. A

nom

aly

(°C)

Station Name

Minimum Temperature Anomaly for March 2021

TEMPERATURE ASSESSMENT

Generally near average to cooler days and near average to warmer nights.

Temperature Assessment and Observed Extremes for March and April 1-21, 2021

LOWEST: 14.0 oCBaguio CityApr. 11, 2021

12.2 oCBSU, La TrinidadApr. 01, 2021

HIGHEST:

37.2 oCSan JoseMar. 27, 2021

LOWEST:

13.0 oCBaguio CityMar. 16, 2021

11.0 oCBSU, La TrinidadMar. 09, 2021

37.3 oCSan JoseApr. 02, 2021

HIGHEST:

TMAX (Surpass) New Record Date Historical Date

CLARK 36.7 03 – 30 - 2021 36.5 03 – 25 - 2010

VIRAC 31.8 03 – 16 & 17 - 2021 31.0 03 – 30 - 1986

ZAMBOANGA CITY 36.2 03 – 18 - 2021 36.0 03 – 26 - 2002

SURPASSED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MARCH 2021

Temperature Assessment Jan – Feb. 22, 2021

Highest 37.2oC San Jose, Occ. Mindoro (Mar 27) 37.6oC 03-28-1992

13.0oC Baguio City (Mar 16) 7.4 oC 03-01-1963

11.0oC BSU, La Trinidad (Mar 09)

Highest 35.4oC NAIA, Pasay City (Mar 17) 36.5oC 03-30-1978

Lowest 22.0oC Science Garden, QC (Mar 09 & 10) 14.9 oC 03-01-1963

Highest 42.2 oC Tuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) 38.6 oC Port Area, Manila (05-17-1915)

Lowest 6.3 oC Baguio (1-18-1961) 14.5 oC Port Area, Manila (01-11-1914)

Highest 37.2oC San Jose, Occ. Mindoro (Mar 27) 35.4oC NAIA, Pasay City (Mar 17)

9.0oC Bagiuo City (Feb 20) 19.3 oC Science Garden, QC (Feb 20)

7.9oC BSU, La Trinidad (Feb 20)Lowest

HISTORICAL RECORD

For: All Stations Monitored (All Months) For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months)

FOR: 2021 (JANUARY - MARCH 31 2021)

For: All Stations Monitored For: Metro Manila Stations

For: Metro Manila Station's Extreme Record (MARCH)

OBSERVED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

FOR: The Month of MARCH 2021 (as of MARCH 31 )

Extremes for the month of MARCH Station's Extreme Record (MARCH)

Lowest

Highest 37.3oC SAN JOSE,OCC. (Apr 02) 38.5 oC 04-28-1992

Lowest 14.0oC Baguio City (Apr 11) 10.0 oC 4-01-1923

Lowest 12.2oC BSU, La Trinidad Benguet (Apr 01)

Highest 35.2 oC PORT AREA,MLA (Apr 02) 38.0oC 04-30-1915

Lowest 21.0 oC PORT AREA,MLA (Apr 20) 17.2 oC 04-02-1923

Highest 42.2 oC Tuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) 38.6 oC Port Area, Manila (05-17-1915)

Lowest 6.3 oC Baguio (1-18-1961) 14.5 oC Port Area, Manila (01-11-1914)

HISTORICAL RECORD

For: All Stations Monitored (All Months) For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months)

OBSERVED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

FOR: The Month of APRIL 21, 2021

Extremes for the month of APRIL Station's Extreme Record (APRIL)

For: Metro Manila Station's Extreme Record (APRIL)

Highest 37.3oC SAN JOSE,OCC. (Apr 02) 35.4oC NAIA, Pasay City (Mar 17)

9.0oC Bagiuo City (Feb 20) 19.3 oC Science Garden, QC (Feb 20)

7.9oC BSU, La Trinidad (Feb 20)Lowest

FOR: 2021 (JANUARY - April 21, 2021)

For: All Stations Monitored For: Metro Manila Stations

ENSO Alert System Status La Niña Advisory

Rainfall Temperature

March 2021• 94% of the country experienced near to above

normal rainfall conditions.• Generally slightly warmer to warmer than

average in most parts of the country.• Most areas observed warmer temperatures both at

daytime and nighttime.

SUMMARY

April 1 - 21, 2021• ~ 60% of the country already experienced below

to way below normal rainfall conditions (most parts of Luzon and Western Visayas);

• ~ 15% near normal and ~ 25% have above normal rainfall conditions (Eastern Visayas and most parts of Mindanao).

• Generally near to below average in most parts of the country.

• Most areas observed cooler temperatures at daytime while warmer than average at nighttime.

Website:www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

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Typhoon927-1541Local 805

FloodLocal 808

IEC Local 102/103

ClimateLocal 905/906

PAGASA new NumberTrunkline: (02) 8284- 0800