Climate Refugees: Uncertainty and Insecurity
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Transcript of Climate Refugees: Uncertainty and Insecurity
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Climate Refugees:Uncertainty and Insecurity
Josh Gellers, PhDUniversity of North Florida
International Studies Senior Seminar Lecture SeriesSeptember 25, 2015Photo: Munem Wasif
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AgendaDefine climate refugees
Examine current scientific knowledge
Explore status under international law
Evaluate potential solutions
Discuss future prospects
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What is a climate refugee? Photo: www.ccema-portal.org
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Population Mobility
Totally Voluntary Migration(Gradual Environmental Change)
Totally Forced Migration(Natural Disasters)
Photo: Sönke Kreft, UNU-EHS
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Environmental Refugees
Climate Refugees
“People who have to leave their habitats, immediately or in the near future, because of sudden or gradual alterations in their natural environment related to at least one of three impacts of climate change: sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity.” (Biermann & Boas, 2010)
“[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life.”(UNEP, 1985)
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Climate Change
Sea-Level RiseExtreme Weather
Drought/Water Scarcity
Temporary or Permanent Migration
Causal Connection
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Examples(?)Syria
Photo: Julien Goldstein, NYT
Tuvalu
Photo: Kyodo, AP
Kivalina
Photo: Wikicommons
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What does current science tell us?
Impacts• Almost no reliable
evidence on out-migration. (Bilsborrow, 2009)
• Slow-onset disasters impact more people than sudden events. (IOM, 2010)
• 2008: 20 million+ displaced due to climate-related disasters. (IDMC, 2009)
Projections• 200-250 million climate
refugees by 2050. (Biermann & Boas, 2010)
• Most climate refugees will come from Africa and Asia. (GACGC, 2006)
• “Climate change…is expected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement).” (IPCC, 2014)
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Q: Are climate refugees protected under international law?
A: No. Neither of the two main international laws on refugees cover climate refugees.
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Teitiota v. Climate Change
Photo: Birgit Krippner, FP
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Is there a solution?
Expand Refugee Convention
Add climate refugee protocol to UNFCCC
Create new international treaty
Establish ad hoc regional regimes
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What does the future hold?• Issue will be brought up later this year at
COP21 in Paris• UN Advisory Group on Climate Change
and Human Mobility has pledged to provide technical assistance to countries
• Current refugee crisis in Europe a ‘rehearsal’ for the climate refugee crisis?
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Additional Information• Visit UN High Commissioner for Refugees• Watch Do Climate Change ‘Refugees’ Exist?• Watch Climate Refugees (2010)
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Thank you! Questions?