Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Developments for Climate Services at Japan...
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Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
Developments for Climate Services at Japan Meteorological Agency
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Climate Information Provision from the Climate Prediction Division, JMA
Forecast Unit
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Regional Climate Center(RCC) in Regional Climate Center(RCC) in RAII (Asian Region)RAII (Asian Region)
Global Climate Monitoring Unit
Global Warming Unit
Climate System Monitoring Unit
El Niño Unit
Numerical Climate Prediction and Re-analysis Unit
Climate Prediction DivisionClimate Prediction DivisionJMAJMA
Domestic Users
National Meteorological (Climatological)Services in Asia
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Climate Services at JMA
Advisory Panel on Extreme Events
Early Warning Information on Extreme Weather
• 1996.03 Dynanucal Monthly Forecasts (once a week), GSM9603 (T63L30M10)
• 2003.03 Dynamical 3-month ForecastsGSM0103 (T63L40M31)
• 2003.09 Dynamical warm/cold season forecasts. GSM0103 (T63L40M31)
• 2008.03 Early Warning for Extreme Weather (2-week forecast)• 2010.02 Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model
for seasonal forecast
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History of JMA Long-Range Forecasts
• 1996.07 Ocean Data Assimilation System
• 1999.08 ENSO outlook Atmosphere-ocean coupled model
• JMA-CGCM02• 2008.03 JMA/MRI-CGCM
AGCM: TL95L40OGCM: MRI.COM 0.3°-1°×1°Ocean Data Assimilation: MOVE-MRI.COM
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Summary of Monthly to Seasonal Prediction of JMA1 month 3 months 7 months
Early warning Information onExtreme events
1-month forecast
3-month forecast
warm/cold
season forecast
ENSOoutlook
operatedmodelsAGCM
TL159L6050 member
CGCMJMA/MRI-CGCM
AGCM: TL95L40OGCM:
0.3 -1 deg x 1 deg
51 member
2 weeks
week 1
Week 2
Week 3&4
1 month (4 weeks)
month-2month-1 month-33 months
3 months(summer/winter)
ENSO, Indian Ocean SST
The seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model in Feb. 2010. The seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model in Feb. 2010.
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New JMA Seasonal Forecast System
coupler(w/ flux adjustment)
Climate Data Assimilation( JRA-25/JCDAS )
Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model (JMA/MRI-CGCM)
JMA GSM( TL95L40: ~180km )
Ocean model (MRI.COM )
1.0°×(0.3°-1.0°), 51 levels
Ocean Data Assimilation System
( MOVE/MRI.COM-G )
Atmospheric perturbationsTrop.&Ext. trop bred vector
Atmospheric I. C.
Oceanic I. C.Atmospheric BGM + Lagged
Averaging Forecast
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division
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Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events
Research C
omm
unity
Scientific comments on climate monitoring, suggestion on improvement of analysis
Extraordinary meeting
Analysis of the event
Annual meeting
Review of Panel activities, extreme climate events in the year
J M A
Timely statement on causes of the extreme climate event
Regular provision of related information
Observational data, analysis tools, operational monitoring information on climate system
Analysis tools of extreme climate events
Extreme event!!
Sharing data, tools, and
information on current status of climate system
Schematic figure of the framework
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division8
Thank you for your attention.
• The JMA seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with a coupled forecast system. (Feb. 2010)• CGCM: JMA/MRI-CGCM,
Ocean Data Assimilation system: MOVE/MRI.COM-G
• CO2 concentration is considered in hindcasts/real-time forecast (extrapolation with linear trend.)
• New calibration technique with a model output statistics (MOS) has been implemented to the seasonal forecast system. (Feb. 2010)
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division9
Revisions of Forecast Systems
• Comprehensive verification of the new coupled seasonal forecast system.• Improvement of the forecast skill has been
confirmed with the new coupled model.
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division10
Research Activities
Old system (AGCM) New system (CGCM)
Anomaly correlation scores of 850-hPa stream function for (a, c) the old system with AGCM and (b, d) the new system with CGCM.
(a) JJA forecast from Feb. (b) JJA forecast from Feb.
(c) DJF forecast from Sep. (d) DJF forecast from Sep.
• Implementation of a satellite simulator (COSP) for model diagnostics/verifications.
• A study of an agricultural application of monthly forecasts is planned in collaboration with Tohoku Univ. and the National Agricultural Research Center for Tohoku Region.
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division11
Ongoing/planned Research Activities
• A hindcast for the next version of the monthly forecast system. (A new model is planned to be introduced in Feb. 2011.)• Reduced gaussian grid• New aerosol climatology• Modification in a land surface model to improve soil moisture
representation.• Investigation of impacts of a sea-ice boundary condition for monthly
forecasts (AGCM) and sea-ice model coupling (CGCM)• Development of the prototype of the next coupled model • Off-line verification of land surface models • Development of a two-stream approximation method to decrease
computational cost, to consider the cloud scattering effect in the long wave radiation.
Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division12
Ongoing/planned Developments