Climate Modeling - geo.utexas.edu
Transcript of Climate Modeling - geo.utexas.edu
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Climate Modeling Ch. 2 (p. 31-39)
• Why use models? • What models are available? • How to evaluate models? • Why simple models?
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Natural or Anthropogenic?
IPCC AR4; IPCC TAR Detection and Attribution
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Our Generation
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:
What types of climate models are used to study climate change?
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No explicit east-west, north-south, up-down, and time dimensions.
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Explicit up-down dimension!
No explicit east-west, north-south, and time dimensions.
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Explicit north-south and up-down dimensions!
No explicit east-west and time dimensions.
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Explicit east-west, north-south, up-down, and time dimensions!
Each grid box can be:
One of the climate system components,
State variables,
Processes.
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Computes: currents, temperature, salinity, and air-sea interactions
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Evolution of Climate
Models Over the Last Few
Decades: Increased Complexity
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Evolution of Climate
Models Over the Last Few
Decades: Increased
Spatial Resolution
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An Integrated Framework for Modeling and Assessment
Global Climate Change and Variability
P
E
Qs
Δ Ss
Δ Sg Qg
Ig
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Models
Hydrologic/Routing Models
Water Resources Applications
In Situ Data
Mesoscale Models
Air Quality Models
Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer
Remote Sensing
Policy
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World’s Fastest Supercomputer 35.6 trillion math operations per second
640 nodes, 5104 processors Occupies 4 tennis court Earth Simulator Project
4/19/2002
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Texas Advanced Computer Center
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See NCAR CCSM
Website for more results
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Examples of Climate Change Experiments
Greenhouse gases
Sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect)
Stratospheric ozone
Biomass burning
Volcanic eruptions
Solar irradiance change
Various energy/emissions use strategies
See IPCC Report for details
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The Future of Climate Modeling Higher resolution, greater regional fidelity
Increased sophistication: e.g., ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycles
Future projections need more sophisticated socio-economic scenarios
Assessment science:
vulnerability,
mitigation,
adaptation,
equity,
regulatory environments, etc.
Confluence of the natural and the social science