Climate Literacy SummationClimate Literacy Summation

Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearities, Feedbacks Why do these words serve to paralyze sensible policy to mitigate the severity of global climate change?

What was the point of this class anyway? What was it supposed to accomplish?

The One Question on the Final Version:

Inconvenient Truths and Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Uncertain Futures

Summary of HC 434: Physics and Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate ChangePolitics of Global Climate Change

Manageable BADHumanity Blew It

Waveform of ConcernWaveform of ConcernAn Ecosystem Literally Melts Away

Global Sea Level Rise: Greenland Global Sea Level Rise: Greenland Melting at an unexpectedly higher rateMelting at an unexpectedly higher rate

Total Ice Sheet MeltingTotal Ice Sheet Melting

Our basic ExpectationOur basic Expectation

Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2

Ice Core data

Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2

But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change

Is this the Right Proxy?Is this the Right Proxy?

Hockey Stick Problems

Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for

Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.

Reliability of multi-century record is questionable

Two D representation is most convincing

Data Period: 1976 - 2000

Amplification of Polar WarmingNote the significant slop change at 2005: Methane Feedback signature?

MethaneMethane

Potential role of methane is larger than Potential role of methane is larger than CO2CO2

GWP = 21GWP = 21 Scales with population growthScales with population growth Released from permafrostReleased from permafrost Released from hydrate depositsReleased from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global Emissions now rising again due to global

wetlands returning from prolonged wetlands returning from prolonged droughtdrought

Competition among anthropogenic Competition among anthropogenic forcesforces

Uncertain Role of AerosolUncertain Role of Aerosol

The Physical scattering properties are The Physical scattering properties are crucial to determining total dimmingcrucial to determining total dimming

We know Aerosols are ImportantWe know Aerosols are Important

Volcanic Eruptions provide a natural labVolcanic Eruptions provide a natural lab

Feedbacks are huge uncertaintyFeedbacks are huge uncertainty

Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than beforeOcean sink now less than before

Ocean PH RisingOcean PH Rising

Ocean sink capacity no longer Ocean sink capacity no longer scales with increasing emissionsscales with increasing emissions

Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios

Really, Three ChoicesReally, Three Choices

BAU because we can’t learn or don’t BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come react to disasters as they come

A1T: Alternative energy technology A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in timeand fuels will come in time

B2: Value system change: B2: Value system change: understand that wilderness is understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordinglyeverywhere and behave accordingly

The Lower Right Box of Doom

Carbon TradingCarbon Trading

Emission space is fixed Emission space is fixed bid or bid or contract on emissionscontract on emissions

Effective trading requires many Effective trading requires many sources of generationsources of generation

What process determines size of What process determines size of emission space?emission space?

What is the penalty for exceeding What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?your emissions cap?

Carbon MarketCarbon Market

Is now not behaving according to Is now not behaving according to original expectations of rapid growth:original expectations of rapid growth:

In 2009 it is now much cheaper to put Carbon into the Atmosphere than to capture and store it

Carbon, Capture and Carbon, Capture and StorageStorage

Without a real market, what’s the Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS?incentive for CCS?

CCS technologies are not mature and CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested.need to be tested.

Porosity of sequestration needs to be Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep tested: only sure reserve is deep oceanocean

CCS the most politically sensible CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stabilizationpathway to stabilization

Stabilization and WedgesStabilization and Wedges

1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per yearyear

This is a global effortThis is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help Again, real carbon market could help

provide various incentivesprovide various incentives And remember, global carbon And remember, global carbon

emissions are now increasing annually emissions are now increasing annually at a faster rateat a faster rate

Current rate is buildup is about 3 ppm x Current rate is buildup is about 3 ppm x 2.1 = 6.3 Gigatons per year2.1 = 6.3 Gigatons per year

Gaining a WedgeGaining a Wedge

• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg

• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000

• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25%

• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

• Commit to building large scale renewable energy projects at the TerraWatt level.

Unambiguous climate change detectionUnambiguous climate change detection

• The intrinsic difficulty is easily forgotten by most policy makers

• The more we learn about climate science the more we understand the importance of multi-decadal variability in the climate baseline which clearly impacts regional climate.

Regional Climate Change: Raisins Regional Climate Change: Raisins

Along with MalariaAlong with Malaria

And we Policy Wank our way alongAnd we Policy Wank our way along

""The United States is committed to The United States is committed to reducingreducing the the greenhouse gas intensity of the American greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012.from 2002 to 2012. “ “

Policy oops

Economics:

Resource DepletionResource Depletion

Global resource use took a sudden Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000uptick starting around 2000

The world is currently in the most The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history! unsustainable epoch in history!

China emerges

Global Carbon Intensity is Global Carbon Intensity is IncreasingIncreasing

Which box do we want to be in?Which box do we want to be in?

We Are At Peak Oil!!We Are At Peak Oil!! 85 MBD Total accessible reserve = 85 MBD Total accessible reserve =

900 BBL 900 BBL Annual use = 365x85= 31 BBL/yearAnnual use = 365x85= 31 BBL/year 30 years left – end of story30 years left – end of story

What to Do?What to Do?

Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurtSubversive videos on You Tube don’t hurtDrive less; Period. Period. Period.Drive less; Period. Period. Period.Better transport pods (100 mpg)Better transport pods (100 mpg)Change Values: nature is not a Change Values: nature is not a consumable; Wilderness is Everywhere; consumable; Wilderness is Everywhere; everything is sacredeverything is sacredProperly factor in avoidance costs in Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate changeeconomic modeling of climate changeMake markets have ethical dimensionsMake markets have ethical dimensions

What to Do IIWhat to Do II

Stabilize crude oil prices so that alternative Stabilize crude oil prices so that alternative energy fiscal baselines can be set and our energy fiscal baselines can be set and our collective chain can stop being yanked.collective chain can stop being yanked.

We might be on this pathwayWe might be on this pathway

IPCC ScenariosIPCC Scenarios

Once again, three real choicesOnce again, three real choices Remain Market DrivenRemain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occurHope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global Adopt the kind of global

morality/consciousness that is needed to morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption.reduce personal consumption.

Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.53.5

Increasing global inequity should no longer be Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?

Your generation is inheriting the legacy of Your generation is inheriting the legacy of consumption driven greedconsumption driven greed

Increasing Consumption

The End Result: 25 Million College Students

Have inherited this world

You have three choices: Stay Informed, Give up, or Do Something

What will be your Choice?