Climate Information - Amazon Web Services€¦ · National Centers for Environmental Information 7...

March 2019

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Satellite and Information Service

Climate Information:Understanding, finding and using NCEI climate data

Deke Arndt & Ahira Sánchez-LugoClimate Monitoring Branch

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

Asheville, North Carolina

2National Centers for Environmental Information

Today’s Agenda

• Introductions• Some definitions and distinctions and jargon• A bunch of stuff you can use, and some background

on where they come from, and how we make them.• We’ll start with high-level reports and products,*

dive into some base data sets, then come back to some other products* and tools, time permitting.


Introductions


National Centers for Environmental Information – Asheville, NC


NCEI Monitoring Branch & US Drought Portal http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring and http://www.drought.gov

(Andrew) (Andrew)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring

http://www.drought.gov/


Definitions, Distinctions, and Jargon


Data, Products & Monitoring

Data: numbers and observations that get collected and archived here

Products: Aggregations of data over space and time for purposeful insight into phenomena

Monitoring: the “play-by-play” of the climate system in a real-time (for climate) sense. Reports, analyses, and products.

Monitoring lenses:● What happened?● How different than average?● How unusual is this

difference?● Is it part of trend or

expected trend?● What were the impacts?


What is “Normal”

• Strict Definition: NCEI publishes daily, monthly, and annual “normals” every 10 yrs.- “today’s normal high,” etc.- Based on specific methodology; usually built on 30

years of input data (currently 1981-2010)

• Looser Definition: the average over some base period - (climate monitoring often uses 1901-2000)


Anomalies

jargon: “anomaly” means “difference or departure from some base-period average or normal.”• Negative: cooler (or drier)

than normal• Positive: warmer (or wetter)

than normal


Let’s Start the Tour


Monthly “State of the Climate” reportshttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/


Monthly / Seasonal Public Reportshttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• U.S. reports released ~ 6th/8th

- 1st date: data and brief overview- 2nd date: full-length reports- Some reports (like “snow and ice”) go

dormant in the off-season

• Global reports released ~ 18th

- Associated data released same day

Click for schedule of

upcoming releases

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/


Monthly / Seasonal Reportshttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• U.S. Reports:• National Summary• National Climate Report• Drought• Synoptic Discussion• Hurricanes, Tropical Storms• National Snow and Ice• Tornadoes• Wildfires

• Global Reports:• Global Summary • Global Climate Report• Global Snow & Ice• Regional Analysis• Upper Air• El Niño / Southern

Oscillation• Global Hazards

AU

TH

OR

ED

AU

TH

OR

ED

,

SE

AS

ON

AL

ST

AT

S &

TA

BL

ES

HI-

LE

VE

L

BU

LL

ET

SD

OR

MA

NT

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/


Monthly / Seasonal Reports

~20% of the February / boreal spring global report. Pro tip: There is

always good stuff in the supplements!


Global Anomaly and Percentile maps


Left: “Anomalies” - Right: “percentiles”

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global


Global Year-to-Date Horserace


Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook


Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook

We get asked - a lot - “will this be the warmest year on record?” and “How will this year end?”


Global climate: Regional tables / timeseries


Regional tables / timeseriesRegions Include:1. North America 7. Caribbean Islands2. South America 8. Atlantic MDR3. Europe 9. Gulf of Mexico4. Africa 10. Hawaiian Region5. Asia 11. East North Pacific6. Oceania

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-regions/


Regional Timeseries


A multi-purpose tool:Climate at a Glance


Climate at a Glance

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/


Climate at a Glancehttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag

• Menu-driven system to analyze regional trends

• Tavg, Tmin, Tmax, precipitation, degree days, drought indices

• Best climate data we have at this scale: homogenous, quite rural, and corrected for artifacts

• Underlying web services can be leveraged by outside apps.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag


Climate at a Glancehttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag

• Maps (shown) or time series (next slide) for:

- Globe

- US

- US regions

- States

- Climate Divisions

- Counties

- (selected) Cities



Climate at a Glance: NC CD1https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag



Climate at a Glance: Haywood plotswww.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag

Similar to “horserace” but allow for visuals of unusual segments in the last calendar year.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag


Sea Ice Extent & Areahttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/


Sea Ice Extent & Area

• From a variety of satellite obs• Subject experts: Nat’l Snow &

Ice Data Center• Monthly data example:

- https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/N/9

northern hemisphere september

Also available in report summary form each month (see Ahira’s earlier slides)

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/N/9


Sea Ice Extent vs Sea Ice Area


Snow Cover Extent


Snow Cover Extent

• Comes from visible satellite obs• Subject matter experts: Rutgers

Snow Lab• Monthly data example:

- https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/nhland/5

northern hemisphere may

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/nhland/5


Extent calculation:not straightforward

Color represents the percent of days snow was observed at that grid box.This percent goes into the final number, as more of an area-times-time value.


Extent departures:less straightforward

Four types of information here:1. Places with snow every day this Feb

where there is always snow every day in Feb (white, high-latitude)

2. Places with no snow this Feb that never have snow in Feb (also white, low-latitude)

3. Places with more snow-on-ground days this Feb than average for Feb (in blues)

4. Places with fewer snow-on-ground days this Feb than average for Feb (in oranges)


Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover ExtentPeriod of record: 1967-2016 (49 years)

Data provided by the Rutgers Global Snow Labhttp://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/

Each pixel’s monthly “snow cover” and associated anomaly is actually based on the number of daysthere was snow cover at the pixel


What is GHCN-Monthly and GHCN-Daily


GHCN: All the Station Data

Global Historical Climatology NetworkA curated set of station observations from around the world, for as long as we’ve had weather stations.

Backbone for most of our temperature, precipitation and drought stuff.



Why would you use it?

GHCN is great to examine the time series of a place, or get the raw data for something. CCMs use it a lot.

Monthly (and soon, daily) GHCN has two flavors: raw/unadjusted and adjusted for non-climate factors



Monthly:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/global-historical-climatology-network-monthly-version-4

ASCII Text Files, Version 4 Archive, Additional Diagnostics, Documentation

Daily (bulk download or station files):

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/global-historical-climatology-network-monthly-version-4

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/


What is ERSST and OISST


SST observations, historically• Buckets• Engine-room intake & hull

observations• Buoys, fixed and drifting• Important – the ratio of

these observations have never been constant

Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresVolume 116, Issue D14, D14104, 22 JUL 2011 DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015220http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015220/full#jgrd16941-fig-0002

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.v116.D14/issuetoc

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015220/full#jgrd16941-fig-0002


SST• ERSST corrects for these

changes

Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresVolume 116, Issue D14, D14104, 22 JUL 2011 DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015220http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015220/full#jgrd16941-fig-0002

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.v116.D14/issuetoc

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015220/full#jgrd16941-fig-0002


ERSST and OISST

ERSST more concerned with correcting threats to validity of long-term influences. Very good for analysis over time (coarser resolution, monthly updates)

OISST optimized for real-time snapshots when you’re not concerned with long term history (finer resolution, available more often)


What is NOAAGlobalTemp


NOAA Global Temp

Combines ERSST and GHCN-Monthly for a monthly assessment of temperatures on a 5°x5°lat/lon grid.


Grid box derived from stations, buoys, ships

X Observed monthly average temperature at station “X”

A

X Normal monthly average temperature at station “X”

A C

B

D

E

F

G

H

C

B

D

E

F

G

H

“Anomaly”(departure from normal)

Step 1: Compute Station anomalies Step 2: Keep anomalies; scrap obs (work in “anomaly space”)

Step 3: Compute avg anomaly for grid box

Step 4: Average grid boxes. Weight by latitude

EARTH

ABCD

E

F G

HGee, thanks, NOAA!

🡨C

oo

ler

War

me

r 🡨


Globe derived from Grid boxes


What is nClimGrid and nClimDiv


nClimGrid drives many of our U.S. products

• Bias-adjusted temperature

• Elevation-aware interpolation

• 5km grid• Underlying dataset

for almost all of our products


nClimGrid → nClimDiv

• Divisional data based on “cookie cutting” the gridded data

• States, regions, counties, river basins, etc.

• We keep these major areas around as well.


August 2017 Tmax vs. Tmin


Accessing nClimGrid and nClimDiv

Maps, tables, graphs:

Climate at a Glance, US Monthly Report, US Temperature and Precip data

Raw data / GIS:

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/

County data assigned to FIPS IDs, and can be cross referenced (“join”) with a GIS county layer easily.

State & division data similar. Download our divisional data layer first, then the data could be joined to that.

Gridded data are in lat/lon point format, so it’s pretty easily plotted in arc.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/


US and North American Drought Monitors


U.S. Drought Monitor


North American Drought Monitor


Some Snow & Snow Record Info


Snow products for FEMA (& NWS)http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/

Daily U.S. Snowfall and Snow Depth:This season’s

observed snow, as NCEI gets the

info

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/


Regional Snow Indexhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/overview

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/overview



• Addresses “how ‘big’ was this snow storm?” through these lenses:- Where and how much

snow?- What’s the snowstorm

history for a region?- Where do people live?- Does not factor in winds or

cold.



Regional Snow Index Viewerhttps://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/rsi

https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/rsi


Billion Dollar Disasters


Billion Dollar Wx and Cx Disastershttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Subdivide by hazard and by state (not shown) 🡪

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/


Climate Extremes Indexhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction


Big Heat is Increasinghttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei

(Big Cold is generally decreasing)

Use for:● How much of the US is subject to

certain types of extremes (precipitation, temperature, drought, hurricane landfalls*)

● Gives great picture nationally● Gives decent picture regionally● Not used for smaller spatial scales

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei


Big Picture Climate Assessment: BAMS State of the Climate & National Climate Assessment


State of the Climate: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams


We could talk about

• … “arctic amplification”

• … glaciers

• … permafrost

• … sea level rise

• … lake temperature rise

• … ocean heat content

• … ocean acidification


The National Climate Assessment: https://www.globalchange.gov … https://science2017.globalchange.gov

https://www.globalchange.gov/

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/


Example: hardiness zones


Increase in frost-free season


Projected Changes in Extremes


Cut for Time

State climate extremes findings

National climate extremes findings

Energy-demand indices

Air stagnation

Lots of drought stuff


Thank you for your time. Do your best.

Deke Arndt: [email protected] Sánchez-Lugo: [email protected]

National Centers for Environmental Information: Asheville (Climate)https://www.ncei.noaa.govhttp://www.facebook.com/NOAANCEIclimateTwitter: @NOAANCEIclimate

Made in Asheville!

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/

http://www.facebook.com/NOAANCEIclimate


References: State of the Climate

• BAMS State of the Climate (annual, comprehensive):

• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams• https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bul

letin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/

• NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate (monthly, meteorological and drought pieces of climate):

• US: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national• Global: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global

• National Climate Assessment:• https://nca2018.globalchange.gov• https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams

https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/


References: Climate & Extreme Weather

• National Climate Assessment:• https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

• BAMS Explaining Extreme Events (event attribution):

• https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

• Monitoring & Understanding Change …” State of knowledge series (BAMS, 2013 & 14)

• … in extreme storm statistics. Kunkel, et al. 94(4), 499-514. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

• … in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the US. Peterson, et al. 94(6), 821-834.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1

• … in extreme winds, waves, and extratropical storms. Vose, et al. 95(3), 377-386.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1

• … in CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses. Wuebbles, et. al., 95(4), 571-583. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1




References: Social media & webinars

• NCEI Climate:• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NOAANC

EIclimate• Twitter (@NOAANCEIclimate):

http://www.twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate

• NCEI Ocean & Geophysics • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NOAANC

EIoceangeo• Twitter (@NOAANCEIocngeo)

http://www.twitter.com/NOAANCEIocngeo

• NCEI/CPC Monthly climate science and services webinars:

• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

https://www.facebook.com/NOAANCEIclimate

http://www.twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate

https://www.facebook.com/NOAANCEIoceangeo

http://www.twitter.com/NOAANCEIocngeo

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings


Extra Slides


Daily Records Toolhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records



• Helpful for finding and characterizing extreme hot, cold, or wet conditions on the daily timescale.- i.e., how many records were

set in the last N days?

• usually runs 2-3 days behind real time.




• Daily: a day’s value was “bigger” than any other on that date

• Monthly: a day’s value was bigger than any daily value during that month

• All-Time: this was the biggest observation ever observed at the station




• Pro tips: - within the USA, records ratios

are much more instructive than raw counts

- global records are dominated by data-rich countries (USA, Australia, some of Europe) and do not necessarily reflect global conditions



Drought Termination and Ameliorationhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/recovery/overview

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/recovery/overview


Drought Termination & Ameliorationhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/recovery/overview

• How much rain needed to [end or reduce] the drought?

• How likely are we to get that?

• What about when we weight those odds with the latest seasonal outlook?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/recovery/overview

Climate Information - Amazon Web Services€¦ · National Centers for Environmental Information 7...

Documents

Transcript of Climate Information - Amazon Web Services€¦ · National Centers for Environmental Information 7...