CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT...Region VIII (Eastern Visayas) Catbalogan 157 48 Tacloban 101 32 Region...

CLIMATE IMPACT

ASSESSMENT for

Philippine Agriculture

(Rice and Corn)

MAY 2014 Number 05 / Volume 30

MAY 2020

Number 06 / Volume 36

Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services

Administration (PAGASA)

Department of Science and Technology

1

P r e f a c e

The Impact Assessment and Applications Section

(IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

For example, an agricultural statistician or

economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic

indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the

bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

Impact assessment for other principal crops such as

sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine

the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:

GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area

during October to January is defined as:

GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1

where: W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the

season; P = rainfall amount in the ith month

(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:

n

YMI = [Pi Ki]

i where:

i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting, 2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity,

etc.) n = total no. of crop stages; P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.

Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile Rank Interpretation

> 80 Potential for flood damage

41 - 80 Near normal to above- normal crop condition

21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield

11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses

< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

2

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP ASSESSMENT FOR MAY 2020

OVERVIEW

Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for upland 1st palay, lowland 1st palay and wet season corn had just started in CAR, Laoag, Basco Batanes, Tuguegarao, Munoz, Baler, Casiguran, Infanta, Tayabas, Legaspi, Virac, Catarman, Catbalogan, Malaybalay, Davao Region, Surigao del Sur and ARMM because of sufficient moisture available in those areas. Contrastingly, any farming activity related to planting rice and corn might be hampered in Vigan, Dagupan, Aparri, Zambales, Calapan, Romblon, Masbate, Panay Island, Region VII, Tacloban, Region IX, Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Norte and SOCCSARGEN due to the inadequate moisture received in those areas. Standing corn crops in Catanduanes and Surigao del sur are in good crops condition, while in Camarines Norte and Surigao del Norte, crops suffered moisture stress.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the Northeasterly surface windflow, ridge of High-Pressure Areas (HPAs), low pressure areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Typhoon (TY) Ambo, easterlies and localized thunderstorm. A persisting warm ENSO-neutral condition has also been observed and is forecasted to continue until the third quarter (July-September) 2020 based on climate models.

REGION I (Ilocos Region) Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting upland 1st palay as well as wet season corn had just started in Laoag; this is due to the ample amount of moisture available in the area. In contrast, other parts of the region received very low rainfall during the month which hampers all farming activities.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region) Sufficient moisture was available during the month which favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for wet season corn as well as upland 1st palay across the region.

REGION II (Cagayan Valley) Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting upland 1st palay and wet season corn had just commenced in Batanes and Tuguegarao, since the rainfall amount had been sufficient during the month. Meanwhile, in Aparri, due to very low moisture available in the area, planting activities for rice and corn are hindered.

REGION III (Central Luzon) Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for upland 1st palay and wet season corn had just begun in most parts of the region, except in Zambales. This is due to the lesser amount of rainfall available in the area during the month.

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting wet season corn and upland 1st palay had just started in Tayabas, and lowland ist palay in Infanta. It is because of sufficient moisture available in those areas,

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) During the month, land preparation for wet season corn as well as upland 1st palay cannot be done in either Calapan or Romblon; it is due to inadequate rainfall received in those areas during the month.

3

REGION V (Bicol Region) Inadequate rainfall received in Masbate during the month hindered any farming activity related to rice and corn. On the other hand, sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting wet season corn and upland 1st palay in Albay and Catanduanes. Meanwhile in Camarines Norte, insufficient moisture available hindered any farming activity related to planting wet season corn. Standing dry season corn in the area might have also suffered from moisture stress.

REGION VI (Western Visayas) Inadequate rainfall received during the month hampered any farming all activities throughout the region.

REGION VII (Central Visayas) Insufficient moisture available during the month hampered all farming activities related to planting rice and corn across the region.

REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas) Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting upland 1st palay and wet season corn had just started in Catbalogan and lowland 1st palay in Catarman. It is because of sufficient moisture available in the area, while in Tacloban, farming activities are hindered by inadequate rainfall received.

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula) Insufficient moisture available across the region made it impossible to undertake any farming activity related to planting rice and corn during the month.

REGION X (Northern Mindanao) Due to adequate moisture available during the month, land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for upland 1st palay as well as wet season corn had just begun in Bukidnon. On the other hand, in Misamis Oriental, all farming activity related to planting rice and corn may be hampered due to the minimal rainfall amount received.

REGION XI (Davao Region) The ample amount of rainfall received during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for planting wet season corn, as well as upland 1st palay, across the region.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) Due to very low rainfall received in all parts of the region, the planting of rice and corn is hampered.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region) Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for wet season corn as well as lowland 1st palay in Surigao del Sur, while in Surigao del Norte, planting of rice and corn might be hampered because of lesser amount of rainfall received in the area. Likewise, the standing dry season corn in Surigao del Sur is faring well, while in Surigao del Norte, corn crops suffered moisture stress.

ARMM (Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao) During the month, land preparation, planting and transplanting activities was favored by the ample amount of rainfall received across the region.

For Particulars, please contact:

THELMA A. CINCO, Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), PAGASA-DOST

Telefax No.: 434-58-82/ [email protected]

4

STATIONS MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST

YMI %

RANK YMI %

RANK YMI %

RANK YMI %

RANK

Region IV-A (CALABARZON)

Infanta 328 90

Region V (Bicol Reg.)

Daet 119 63

Legaspi 244 90

Virac 193 78

Region VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Catarman 394 100

Region XIII (CARAGA)

Hinatuan 278 73

Surigao 98 58

STATIONS APRIL MAY JUNE

YMI %RANK YMI %RANK YMI %RANK


Infanta 85 45 490 85 Region V (Bicol Reg.)

Daet 93 72 264 67 Legaspi 49 23 350 78 Virac 126 83 286 67


Catarman 36 25 519 95 Region XIII (CARAGA)

Hinatuan 250 67 593 77 Surigao 160 70 282 60

TABLE 1.0 CUMULATIVE YIELD MOISTURE INDICES FOR

DRY SEASON CORN in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.

(April – June 2020)


LOWLAND FIRST PALAY in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.

(May - August 2020)

5

STATIONS MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST

YMI

% RANK

YMI

% RANK

YMI

% RANK

YMI

% RANK

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Reg.)

Baguio 244 28

Region I (Ilocos Reg.)

Dagupan 66 10

Vigan 103 30

Laoag 128 30

Region II (Cagayan Valley)

Aparri 56 18

Basco 178 47

Tuguegarao 260 68

Region III (Central Luzon)

Iba 113 28

Cabanatuan 181 48

Baler 46 5

Casiguran 356 63


Tayabas 166 50

Region IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Calapan 58 15

Romblon 123 43


Masbate 116 50

Region VI (Western Visayas)

Roxas 111 40

Region VII (Central Visayas)

Cebu 31 22

Dumaguete 115 55

Tagbilaran 58 30


Catbalogan 157 48

Tacloban 101 32

Region IX (Western Mindanao)

Dipolog 131 42

Zamboanga 111 62

Region X (Northern Mindanao)

Malaybalay 149 20

Lumbia 100 40

Region XI (Davao Reg.)

Davao 130 28

Region XII (SOCSARGEN)

General Santos 33 17

ARMM (Autonomous reg. of Muslim Mindanao)

Cotobato 131 25


UPLAND PALAY in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.

(May - August 2020)

6

STATIONS MAY JUNE JULY

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous

Reg.)

Baguio 187 47

Region I (Ilocos Reg.)

Dagupan 51 10

Laoag 98 52

Vigan 79 50

Region II (Cagayan Valley)

Aparri 42 32

Basco 136 70

Tuguegarao 199 98

Region III (Central Luzon)

Iba 86 40

Cabanatuan 138 75

Baler 247 80

Casiguran 272 90


Tayabas 127 55

Region IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Calapan 45 22

Romblon 94 63


Masbate 89 67

Region VI (Western Visayas)

Roxas 85 60

Region VII (Central Visayas)

Cebu 24 27

Dumaguete 88 83

Tagbilaran 45 43 Region VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Catbalogan 120 68

Tacloban 77 47

Region IX (Western Mindanao)

Dipolog 40 17

Zamboanga 85 80

Region X (Northern Mindanao)

Lumbia 76 43

Malaybalay 114 28

Region XI (Davao Reg.)

Davao 99 37

Region XII (SOCSARGEN)

General Santos 26 25


WET SEASON CORN in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.

(May - July 2020)

7

TABLE 5.0 DECADAL AND CUMULATIVE DECADAL RAINFALL

For the month of MAY 2020

[actual values (in mm) and percent of normal]

REGION DECADE ACTUAL

MAY

% Normal

of Actual

CUMULATIVE

JAN.-MAY

% Normal

Cumulative

R01

Ilocos Region

13 14 54 75.5 72

14 68 94 143.7 81

15 73 58 217.0 71

CAR

CAR

13 14 48 105.8 62

14 86 124 192.1 80

15 133 124 325.2 94

R02

Cagayan Valley

13 20 50 282.8 69

14 161 230 444.1 92

15 116 136 560.4 99

R03

Central Luzon

13 45 123 214.2 77

14 136 157 350.4 96

15 31 26 381.0 79

R04-A

CALABARZON

13 27 85 318.4 69

14 116 216 434.5 85

15 37 48 471.1 80

R04-B

MIMAROPA

13 13 63 71.0 51

14 94 170 164.5 85

15 37 48 201.7 74

NCR

NCR

13 39 206 139.4 109

14 122 246 261.7 147

15 38 45 300.0 114

R05

Bicol Region

13 51 152 471.6 67

14 139 237 610.8 80

15 9 19 619.8 77

R06

Western Visayas

13 4 20 135.8 61

14 20 53 156.0 60

15 69 127 225.4 72

R07

Central Visayas

13 18 108 328.5 108

14 15 50 343.2 103

15 46 132 389.7 106

R08

Eastern Visayas

13 71 216 773.7 92

14 112 213 885.9 99

15 27 65 913.0 97

R09

Zamboanga Peninsula

13 8 21 172.9 52

14 39 82 212.1 56

15 55 107 267.0 62

R10

Northern Mindanao

13 21 51 245.2 54

14 52 81 297.4 58

15 56 83 352.9 61

R11

Davao Region

13 53 107 566.3 77

14 74 116 640.1 80

15 38 64 678.1 79

R12

SOCCSKSARGEN

13 14 39 164.5 51

14 45 75 209.5 55

15 40 77 249.4 58

CARAGA

13 54 98 1015.9 78

14 49 85 1064.7 79

15 62 109 1126.4 80

ARMM

13 13 34 148.0 51

14 49 77 196.9 56

15 58 102 255.1 62

8

FIG. 1.0 ACTUAL CUMULATIVE RAINFALL DURING THE

PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHIL.

FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2020

9

A. Decade 1 - MAY 01-10, 2020

B. Decade 2 - MAY 11-20, 2020

B. Decade 2 – JULY 11-20, 2018

C. Decade 3 - MAY 21-31, 2020

FIG. 2.0 TEN DAYS ACTUAL RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES for the month of MAY 2020

10

A. Normal Rainfall (mm)

C. Percent of Normal Rainfall ( % )

B. Actual Rainfall (mm)

FIG. 3.0 RAINFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES for the month of MAY 2020

MAY 2020

11

Fig. 4.0 Comparison of normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration

with the actual monthly rainfall at Laoag, Basco, Baguio, Aparri,

Dagupan, and Tuguegarao.

.

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700

J F M A M J J A S O N D

mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Dagupan

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RRNormal PETActual RRNormal RRNormal PET

Aparri

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Tuguegarao

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Baguio

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Basco

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Laoag

12

Fig 4a. Comparison of normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration

with the actual monthly rainfall at Iba, Ambulong, Muñoz, Port Area,

Calapan, and Science Garden.

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Iba

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Ambulong

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Muñoz

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Port Area

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Calapan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

S. Garden

13

Fig. 4b. Comparison of normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration

with the actual monthly rainfall at Daet, Casiguran, Infanta,

Legaspi, Alabat, and Puerto Princesa.

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Daet

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Casiguran

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Infanta

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RRLegaspi

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Alabat

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RRPto. Princesa

14

Fig. 4c. Comparison of normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration with

the actual monthly rainfall at Cuyo, Masbate, Mactan, Tacloban,

Catarman and Dumaguete.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Tacloban

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Dumaguete

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RRMactan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Cuyo

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Masbate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Catarman

15

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Davao

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Gen. Santos

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Zamboanga

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Cag. de Oro

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200


mill

ime

ters

Month

Normal RR

Normal PET

Actual RR

Dipolog

Fig 4d. Comparison of normal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration with the

actual monthly rainfall at Davao, General Santos, Zamboanga, Cagayan

de Oro, and Dipolog.

CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT...Region VIII (Eastern Visayas) Catbalogan 157 48 Tacloban 101 32 Region...

Documents

Transcript of CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT...Region VIII (Eastern Visayas) Catbalogan 157 48 Tacloban 101 32 Region...