The case for low carbon resilient infrastructure in the Latin America region

Climate Finance for Sustainable Infrastructure Development

February 22, 2012

Sustainable Infrastructure Finance Summit

Observations

------------------------------------------------------------------1 m

Today

IPCC 2007 ?

Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009

Rahmstorf, 2007

Pfeffer et al., 2008

Projections(w/ proxy ice

sheet dynamics)

Substantial implications for coastal cities and coastalzones in general. Contingent planning is urgent, needsto start now.

Source: Bindschadler, 2011

Projected sea level rise: from bad to worse

Projected concentration of rainfall, recurrent flooding… and drought

Source: Vergara & Scholz, 2011

Anticipated coastal zone flooding: Guyana

67% of the GDP,75% of population70% of agriculturewill be displaced with a 1m increase in sea level rise

Source: IIASA, 2011 and staff estimates

LAC GHG Emissions

While emissions are modest in a global context…

World LAC World LAC World LACLand use change & forestry (CO2)

Agriculture (CH4 & N2O)

Energy (CO2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2005

2007

…a “business as usual” path would increase its global footprint.

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Total Emissions, million metric tons CO2e

To

tal

Em

issi

on

s, m

illi

on

met

ric

ton

s C

O2e

met

ric t

ons

CO

2e p

er c

apita

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

Venezuela

Peru

Mexico

Guatemala

Ecuador

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Bolivia

Argentina

Dynamics of Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008

kg CO2 per $1 GDP (PPP)

Source: Generated by INE/CCS with data obtained from the Millen-nium Development Goals Indicators (UN) and the World Bank, 2012.

GDP pc, PPP (constant 2005 int'l $)

LAC BAU Emissions Trajectory and Various Sector Emissions Wedges, 2010-2050

- 7 -

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

9,000.00

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

LAC emissions (historic) left-hand axisLAC Emissions (BAU) left-hand axisLAC Emissions ZNDD 2020 (Left-hand Axis)ZNDD 2020 + no new FF emissions after 2030

Mil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s o

f C

O2e

Met

ric

To

ns

of

CO

2e p

er c

apit

a

Zero land-use emissions post 2020

No new FF emissions post 2030

Zero FF emissions by 2050

LAC Target 2050: 2 metric tons CO2e per capita (RHA)

Zero agriculture and wasteemissions by 2050

Historic and BAUper capita (RHA)

0.79 GtCO2e

2 GtCO2e

2.5 GtCO2e

2.5 GtCO2e

Transportation(1.25 GtCO2e)

Power(1.7 GtCO2e)

Low carbon, resilient infrastructure

Reduces or eliminates carbon footprint Reduces resource consumption Reduces land degradation and optimizes recovery of degraded

lands Shifts economic activity to low carbon path Breaks with resource intensive growth model of the past

Minimizes exposure to anticipated unidirectional climate impacts

Conveys resilience to weather extremes Strengthen ability of economic activities to surmount climate

extremes

- 8 -

A Streamlined Climate Strategy

Three “foundation” building blocks. IDB will support efforts to:

Adapt to the consequences of climate destabilization

Promote improvements in quality of life at low-carbon expenditures

Link knowledge (science) to decision- making

Engage immediately in a process of ambitious investments to address consequences of climate change in LAC, e.g. programs

to reduce impacts of cc in water supply/quality (Colombia-Mountain Wetlands; Mexico-Grijalva)

to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts in coastal & marine ecosystems (Peru-Fisheries)

to strengthen the resilience of forest and other fragile terrestrial biomes to climate impacts (Brazil-Mata Atlantica; Costa Rica-Biodiversity)

to address the impacts of climate change in agriculture

IDB’s Adaptation agenda

IDB’s Mitigation agenda-

Promote low-carbon power generation adoption of low carbon transport

systemsavoided deforestation, reforestation

and low carbon agricultural practices

Engage in international funding sources for the region leveraged by own resources Green Climate Fund, Fast-track, Bilateral funding,

Climate Investment Funds Advocate for long-term planning, domestic financing

and investment to address adaptation Support efforts to reduce carbon signal of regional

economies Expand knowledge generation and management to

link science and decision making

IDB’s policy (GCI-9), strategy, action plan and dedicated resources to the issue show commitment to climate agenda in the region.