The Climate-Energy-Water nexus: The Climate-Energy-Water nexus:  what sorts of knowledge do we need,  what sorts of knowledge do we need,

and how might we get it?and how might we get it?

Andrew CampbellAndrew Campbell Triple Helix ConsultingTriple Helix Consultingwww.triplehelix.com.auwww.triplehelix.com.au

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Outline• Converging InsecuritiesConverging Insecurities

– ClimateClimate– WaterWater– EnergyEnergy– FoodFood

• Intersections and intersticesIntersections and interstices– On-ground examplesOn-ground examples

• Knowledge, science & policyKnowledge, science & policy

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Key Points• The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end

• The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here

• Water security will be a perennial issue for southern Australia

• Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important

• We tend to deal with these issues in science and policy silos

• But at operational levels, the trade-offs are very real already

• What sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it?

Drivers for change

• Climate

• Water

• Energy

• Food

• Population, demography, consumption and development pressures

• Competition for land & water resources

• Resource depletion & degradation

Water

• Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average

• Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already over-committed

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Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005)

0

100

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19111914191719201923192619291932193519381941194419471950195319561959196219651968197119741977198019831986198919921995199820012004

Total annual* inflow** to Perth dams (GL)

Annual inflow 1911–1974 (338 GL av) 1975–1996 (177 GL av) 1997–2004 (115 GL av)

Notes: * year is taken as May to April and labelled year is beginning (winter) of year ** inflow is simulated based on Perth dams in 2001 and 2005 is total until 3 August 2005

Water, energy, and GDP

7 from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Energy & GDP

Water & GDP

Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy

Climate-water-energy feedbacks

8 from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

• Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa

• Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water• E.g. coal-fired power

stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive

• Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos

Profound technical challengesProfound technical challenges1.1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissionsTo decouple economic growth from carbon emissions

2.2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate

3.3. To increase water productivityTo increase water productivity—— decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationshipdecoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship

4.4. To increase energy productivityTo increase energy productivity– more food energy out per unit of energy inmore food energy out per unit of energy in– while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energywhile shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

5.5. To develop more sustainable food systemsTo develop more sustainable food systems– while conserving biodiversity andwhile conserving biodiversity and– improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human healthimproving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

6.6. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!—— improving sustainability and resilience improving sustainability and resilience

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Perspectives from the top of the APS

Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009:

Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:“ By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental

policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity….

The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies… We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers. ”

http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm

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On-ground examples

• Energy Tree Cropping (CRC FFI)

• Murrumbidgee Irrigation

• Coliban Water

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Woody biomass energy• Learning from the Vikings:

– Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates

– Private forestry thinnings etc produce 23% of Finland’s primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finland’s electricity

– In Sweden it is 20% (already higher than oil) with a target of 40%

• Foran et al suggest woody biomass energy can fuel Australia

• WA already in the lead

CRC Future Farm Industries energy tree crops

Developing an efficient supply chain for woody energy crops integrated into wheatbelt farming systems.Solving a bottleneck with the invention of a new harvesting headWater yield trade-offs minimal, because <10% of farm area, in low rainfall zones. Distance from mill important — decentralised grid.

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““Carbon plus” wool, beef and Carbon plus” wool, beef and sheep meat sheep meat

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Forestry integrated with farming Forestry integrated with farming vs replacing farmingvs replacing farming

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Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a current case

• Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA– $1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production

• 100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised

• Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption– And hence greenhouse gas emissions

• Options:– Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste– Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent)– Conversion to biodiesel– Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting

• Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon company– Liberating potential opportunities through a more integrated approach

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Coliban Water Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Note total emissions have trebled in five years

Coliban Water emissions per Megalitre

•Note water supply emissions up tenfold in five years, now level with sewage treatment, which is stable

The Coliban Water Radar ScreenBalancing competing priorities:

SocialTechnicalEnvironmentalEconomicPolitical

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Transition to carbon-neutral, energy-positive, water-smart rural landscapes

The integration imperativeThe integration imperative• Managing whole landscapes

– “where nature meets culture” (Simon Schama) – landscapes are socially constructed– beyond ‘ecological apartheid’ – NRM means people management– engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour

• Integration- across issues — e.g climate, energy, water, food, biodiversity- across scales — agencies, governments, short-term, long-term - across the triple helix — landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods

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What sorts of knowledge do we need?

• Integrated metrics, or tools for integrating metrics

• Crude mud maps of generic trade-offs and win-wins

• Narratives that make the challenge more meaningful

– Including international best practice case studies

• How to articulate, quantify and evaluate CEW interactions, trade-offs and synergies holistically

• Better CEW project assessment tools for new developments, and optimisation tools for improving them

How might we acquire that knowledge?

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• A Water, Energy & Land (WEL) R&D Corporation?– need to work with at least four Ministers & their agencies

• A CEW CRC?• A Sustainability Commission with a research mandate?

– sister agency to the Productivity Commission?– or an expansion of its mandate?– or completely independent and whole of government, like the New

Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment?

• Training in systems thinking and network leadership for bright, mid-level cohorts across govt & industry

• Commitment to some pilots – e.g. greenfield suburbs, regional centres on the margins of the grid

For more information

e.g. e.g. Paddock to PlatePaddock to PlatePolicy Propositions for Sustainable Food SystemsPolicy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems

Powerful Choices:Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy transition to a biofuel economy

www.triplehelix.com.awww.triplehelix.com.auu