Climate-Driven Variations in Small Pelagic Fisheries Production in ...

Climate-driven variations in small pelagic fisheries production in northern Zamboanga

and Bohol Sea: Potential Impact, vulnerability, and local adaptive capacity

International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and

Environmental Security

Asuncion B. de Guzman, Cesaria R. Jimenez,

Juliet H. Madula, Angelo C. Macario, Melrose H. Flores

and Jerry P. GarciaMindanao State University at Naawan

9023 Naawan, Misamis Oriental

Presented by: Katrina De Guzman, Environmental Scientist, GHD

International Conference on Climate Change Im

pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm

ental Security 2012

• Formerly known as ICE CREAM program

• DOST-GIA funded program

• 3 year program (2009-2012)

• 8 projects (Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao)

• 6 institutions (UP-MSI, UPV, DLSU, BU,

XU & MSU-Naawan)

ReSILIENT SEAS (Remote Sensing Information for Living Environments and Nation-wide Tools for Sentinel Ecosystems in our Archipelagic Seas Program for Climate Change



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Climate change vulnerability of coastal Fisheries in Mindanao (CoastFish) - Project 6 of the DOST-ReSILIENT

SEAS Program for Climate Change

Potential effect of CC on production variability & resilience of fisheries systems

Drivers: Climate or Fishing? or Both?

Theoretical Framework

CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS

Increasing SST

Increased storminess

Sea level rise

Increased precipitation

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON

FISHERIES

Decreased catch

Decreasing quality/value of

catch

Lower fisher Income

Increasing poverty

Pauly et al., 1998

Human-environment synergy: impacts on fisheries and marginal livelihoods



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Ocean Climate in Philippines:10 clusters based on combined CC

exposures of SST, Rainfall & SLR

Source: David et al. (unpub)



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Impacts on Small Pelagic Fisheries

● Ocean climate is variable (inter-annual and decadal variability)

● Expected to have profound effects on SPF production, e.g. regime shifts (Brander 2006; Chavez et al.

2003 )

● SPF are excellent indicators of climate variability: ● short lifespans, high growth

/recruitment rates, lower trophicposition (Peck et al. 2010) Sardine shoal in Cebu



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Sardines are found low in the food chainmaking them sensitive to environmental changes



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High chl a Plankton

Abundance

Recruitment of Planktivores (Small

pelagics)

Drivers of Small Pelagic Fisheries Production in NZP & Butuan Bay

NE Monsoon

drives

UPWELLING

High SPF

production

Watershed-

driven

NUTRIENT

LOADING

NZ Peninsula

Butuan Bay



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Sardine as climate proxy

Bali sardine Sardinella lemuru or“tamban tuloy” forms a dominant part of SPF prod’n in NZP and Bohol Sea

Often mixes with other sardine species (S. fimbriata, S.gibbosa)

Associated with high productivity areas or upwelling zones (e.g. DipologStrait )

Can be a proxy to changing climate: recruitment fluctuations have been related to ENSO events (www.Fishbase.org)

Sardinella lemuru

Sardinella longiceps Sardinella lemuru



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Methods: Fisheries assessment

Sardine fisheries production (May 2009-June 2011) in Butuan Bay & Dipolog-Sindangan Bay

Relevant biological parameters (size frequency, gonadal maturity)

Spatial mapping of fishing effort

Illana Bay

Lianga

Bay

Sindangan

Bay

Butuan

Bay

Dipolog City

Pagadian City

Butuan City



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Methods: Climate and monsoondrivers of fisheries production

Link climate factors and seasons with sardine fishery trendsUse of satellite SST, chl a

distributions & rainfall as proxies to determine:Annual & inter-annual

upwelling variability and productivity patterns in northern ZamboangaPeninsula & Bohol sea

Map of Zamboanga Peninsula shelf

area showing bathymetry

(Source: Villanoy et al, 2011).

Major upwelling zone



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RESULTS: Upwelling in Northern Zamboanga Peninsula

NE monsoon winds along the northern coast of Zamboanga triggers upwelling

February mean SST from 1985-2009: cooler SST

Upwelling drives chl a up during NEM

Abundant food supports high sardine production

Source: Villanoy et al. 2011



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Changing productivity patterns in NZP – Bohol Sea

Mean chl a, SST &

total rainfall for August

(SWM, left) and Feb.

2010 (NEM, right)

Chl a levels in

NEM

Low SST in NZP

during NEM

upwelling peak

Higher mean rainfall

(TRMM) in BB in

NEM chl a levels

Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)

SS

TC

hla

TR

MM



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Climate signals for upwelling-

driven

productivity patterns in

Northern

ZamboangaPeninsula

r= - 0.71

The “spike” in 2011

NEM indicates return

of sardine abundance

after its virtual

disappearance in

2008



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Rainfall in Butuan Bay also a strong climate signal driving Chl a & sardineproduction

r = 0.68



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ENSO impact on time-series sardine production in NZP

Source: Villanoy et al. 2011

Non ENSO NEMEl Niño NEMLa Niña NEM

El Niño episodes

tended to induce

stronger upwelling

& sardine prod’n;

La Niña episodes

was associated

with weaker

upwelling & lower

prod’n



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Gonadal maturity

and juvenile

recruitment in

Sindangan Bay

coincide with

NEM

Strongly

associated with

high chl a during

NEM

-10

90

190

290

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490

590

690

790

890

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

May 09

Jun 09

Jul 09

Aug 09

Sep 09

Oct 09

Nov 09

Dec 09

Jan 10

Feb 10

Mar 10

Apr 10

May 10

Jun 10

Jul 10

Aug 10

Sep 10

Oct 10

Nov 10

Dec 10

Jan 11

Feb 11

Mar 11

Apr 11

May 11

Jun 11

Juv

en

ile

Ca

tch

(m

t))

La

nd

ed

Ca

tch

(m

t)

Landed Catch of Sardinella lemuru in Northern Zamboanga peninsula

Municipal Commercial Juvenile



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Upwelling off Zamboanga peninsula occurs during the NE Monsoon but interannual variability linked to ENSO

Sea surface temperature anomaly

(positive - weak upwelling,

negative - strong upwelling)

El Nino strong upwelling La Nina weak upwellingSource:Villanoy et al. 2011



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Spatial distribution of chlorophyll in the

different zones during A) January 2005,

B) January 2007, and C) January 2008.

Extremely high chlorophyll a in

2007 upwelling season collapsed

in 2008 ( in sardine production)

Source: Villanoy et al. (2011)

Anatomy of sardine

fishery collapse in

NZPFishers in NZP declared

virtual disappearance of

sardine stocks in 2008-

2009.



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Some Generalizations: Climate –associated

effects on sardine fisheries

Dipolog-Sindangan Bay

Highly seasonal abundance (NEM) Spawning season between Oct-Dec Sardine production & recruitment in upwelling zone

dependent on monsoon-driven variability in PP Collapse of chl in 2008 strongly related to weaker

upwelling during La Niña episode Too much rain Stratification Triggered phenomenal decline in

sardine production in 2008-2009.





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Climate –associated effects on sardine fisheries

Butuan Bay

Extended peak of sardine abundance fueled mainly by rainfall & nutrient flux from the vast Agusan River watershed which drives chl a

Puzzling result: short (knife-edged)spawning period

Need for further investigation

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Ma

y 0

9

Jun

09

Jul

09

Au

g 0

9

Se

p 0

9

Oct

09

No

v 0

9

De

c 0

9

Jan

10

Fe

b 1

0

Ma

r 10

Ap

r 10

Ma

y 1

0

Jun

10

Jul

10

Au

g 1

0

Se

p 1

0

Oct

10

No

v 1

0

De

c 10

Jan

11

Fe

b 1

1

Ma

r 11

Ap

r 11

Ma

y 1

1

Jun

11

Ma

ture

Go

na

d (

%)

S. lemuru, Butuan Bay

No sampling in February 2011




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Encroachment & Equity Issues

Commercial fishing boats (w/ bag net and ring net) fish w/in 7-km

municipal waters of Sindangan Bay



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Concluding Remarks: Climate-driven or Overfishing?

Clear indications that climate-associated factors (SST,

chl a, rainfall) drive fish stock abundance and recruitment

- based on evidence from sardine production in NZP-

Butuan Bay

Overfishing occurs in both bays: high fishing effort

(commercial & municipal), fishing on juvenile sardine, low

CPUE and fisher income

However, difficult to delineate between climate-related

impacts and overfishing on interannual variations in

sardine production



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Concluding Remarks: Effects of climate change

Expected changes due to climate change – increasing

SST, sea level rise, increased storminess and increased

frequency of El Niño-La Niña events – are expected to

have profound effects on SPF production

Understanding the impacts of climate change requires

long-term studies on the dynamics of ocean and fisheries

systems

Nonetheless, effective fisheries management is urgent &

vital in sustaining the sardine stock



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Livelihood vulnerability and local adaptive capacity

Climate change adds burden to an Overburdened

environment and people!

Variability in fisheries production threatens livelihoods & food security among coastal communities.

Fishing communities have demonstrated local adaptive capacity to adjust to variability in fish production: Shift in gear type, fishing area, and target fish species Maximize bottling during peak season to store up supply (Dipolog

City); big companies buy from other areas on sardine off-season Increased investment in post-harvest projects in times of

abundant fish (e.g. cold storage.



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Acknowledgements

Funding for the ReSILIENT SEAS (ICE CREAM) Program provided by DOST – PCAARRDProject partners Dipolog School of Fisheries Provincial Agri. Office of Zambo. del Sur Surigao del Sur State U (Lianga Campus)

LGUs of project sites Research Assistants & Field Enumerators

Page 2

maintaining genetic richness,

Biodiversity is widely regarded to beimportant in:

ecological functioning, and

the resilience of the ecosystem

(Schultze & Mooney, 1993;Heywood, 1995).

Rationale



ental Security 2012

Climate-Driven Variations in Small Pelagic Fisheries Production in ...

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