Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ …/Climate driven... ·...
Transcript of Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ …/Climate driven... ·...
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Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS
Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project
Anneli Poska, Ben Smith, Dörte Lehsten
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Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project: input a nd parameterisation
RCA based simulation of European vegetation
� DVGM: LPJ-Guess v. 2.1 in cohort mode (migration and land use are not implemented);
� Climate and CO2 parameters: RCA (Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model) data for two time-slices (6000 BP and 1800 AD);
� Soil data: soil texture code from CRU database;� PFT parametrisation: standard, species based setup for
Europe (Hickler et al 2010).
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� Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) attempt to describe patterns and trends in vegetation structure and functioning based on a representation of basic ecosystem processes, their interactions and response to abiotic drivers
� LPJ – DGVM (Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Sitch et al., 2003) is a generalized, process-based model of vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry designed for global applications.
� LPJ - Guess (General Ecosystem Simulator, Smith et al., 2001) uses individual based ”gap-model” approach and is optimised to study regional changes on decennial-centennial timescales.
Dynamic vegetation models (DVM)
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LPJ-GUESS: A modular, individual-based process-orie nted ecosystem model*
*Smith et al. 2001 Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621
Soil organicmatter
Soil biogeochemistry
Populationdynamics
& disturbance
Physiology,phenology& growth
Vegetation
Climate(temp, prec, radiation)
CO2 Soil textureStand (grid cell)
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Plant Functional Types (PFTs)
� PFT (Plant Functional Types) are used by DGVMs for vegetation representation. PFT is a term that groups plants according to their function in ecosystem and their use of resources and can embrace:
� Taxonomic groups such as willows, maples, sedges or grasses;� Groups based on life-form characteristics e.g., trees, shrubs, herbs,
lianas, graminoids, etc.� Groups based on specific combination of physiological,
morphological, biochemical and bioclimatic properties e.g., boreal evergreen shade intolerant tree.
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Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
LPJ-GUESS: Representation of vegetation (cohort mod e)
Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
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Parameter
max establishment rate (ha −−−−1 yr −−−−1)
bioclimatic distribution
leaf:sapwood area ratio (m 2 cm −−−−2)
leaf phenology
crown spreading
boreal
evergreen
0.3
150
1250
temperate
summergreen
0.4
250
1250
boreal-temperate
summergreen
0.4
250
2500
no limits
summergreen-raingreen
-
-
-
LPJ-GUESS: Plant Functional Types (PFTs)
� LPJ-GUESS uses two types of PFT groupings:
� Taxonomic (species based);� Physiological, morphological and bioclimatic properties based.
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VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables
Tw
min
(ºC
)T
cmin
(ºC
)
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VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables
Sw
cont
GD
D5
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VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Picea abies)
RCA 6000 BP
PFT: Picea abies(global PFT: TBE1)
Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -30tcmax_est -1.5twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 600
Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)
GDD5 Cover fraction
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VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Fagus sylvatica)
RCA 6000 BP
PFT: Fagus sylvatica(global PFT: TBS)
Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -3.5tcmax_est 6twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 1500
Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)
GDD5 Cover fraction
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VR LANDCLIM project: LPJ-GUESS output
6000
BP
1800
AD
Dominant global PFT Dominant RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
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� Migration (based on preliminary results of ECOCHANGE project)
� Picea abies� Fagus sylvatica
� Land-use� Kaplan (Kaplan et al 2009)� HYDE (Klein Goldewijk 2001)
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing
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VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)
RCA 6000 BP PFT: Picea abies (global: TBE1)
Cover fraction Predicted migration Corrected cover fraction
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VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)
6000
BP
1800
AD
Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
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VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (land use)
6000
BP
1800
AD
HYDE Kaplan
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VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (Kaplan land u se)
6000
BP
1800
AD
Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
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VR LANDCLIM project: Land-cover for RCA
6000
BP
1800
ADOriginal Migration Migration and landuse
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Thank You!