Climate CounCil

Angry Summer 2013/2014 Continuing hot on the heels of the ‘Angry Summer’ of 2012/2013, Australians again endured record-breaking extreme events this summer. Drought conditions affected inland eastern Australia, while parts of the north and west of the country experienced above average rainfall. There was an early start to the bushfire season in New South Wales, and parts of South Australia, Western Australia and

Victoria were ravaged by fires. Prolonged and intense heatwaves were experienced in major population centres, including Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne.

Over the 2013/2014 summer numerous extreme weather-related records were broken across Australia (Figure 1; Figure 2).

Key findings1. Heatwaves and hot days, drought and

rainfall extremes (high and low), and bushfires dominated the 2013/2014 summer. For example:

• Sydney had its driest summer in twenty-seven years

• Canberra experienced 20 days of at least 35°C

• Melbourne experienced its hottest ever 24 hour period (average 35.5°C)

• Adelaide had a record of 11 days of 42°C or more during the summer

• Perth had its second hottest summer on record

2. Climate change is already increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events in Australia.

3. Many of our largest population centres stand out as being at increased risk from extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought and bushfires.

4. The impacts of extreme weather events on people, property, communities and the environment are serious and costly.

5. Limiting the increase in extreme weather activity requires urgent and deep reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The decisions we make this decade will largely determine the severity of climate change and its influence on extreme events for our grandchildren. This is the critical decade for action on climate change.

This report provides a summary of extreme weather conditions in the 2013/2014 summer, continuing the trend of hotter summers and more weather extremes in Australia.

2

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3

Climate change and extreme weatherAustralia has always been, and will continue to be, a land of extremes. However, climate change is now making many types of extreme weather worse, especially weather related to higher temperatures. For example, Adelaide experienced 13 days where the maximum temperature exceeded 40°C (the average is 2 days per summer). Recent record-breaking events show that climate change is already affecting Australians.

It is crucial that we are aware of the influence of climate change on extreme weather so that communities, emergency services, health services and other authorities are prepared for the likelihood of increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather.

Summer 2013/2014 in detailHeatwavesIn Australia, a heatwave is defined operationally as a period of at least three days where the combined effect of high temperatures and excess heat is unusual within the local climate (BoM 2012; Nairn and Fawcett 2013). Heatwaves have widespread impacts, ranging from direct impacts on our health to damage to ecosystems, agriculture and infrastructure (Climate Council 2014).

What happened?

During summer 2013/2014, intense and prolonged heatwaves scorched central and eastern Australia, with major population centres – Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne – and their surrounding areas particularly affected.

Record high maximum temperatures occurred over 8.8 percent of Australia during the first four days of January, including 17 percent of New South Wales, 17 percent of the Northern Territory, 16 percent of Queensland and 8 percent of South Australia (BoM 2014a).

This summer’s heatwaves were particularly significant because of their record-breaking duration in major population centres in southeast Australia.

Victoria experienced its hottest four days on record from 14–17 January, and Melbourne set

a record for four consecutive days at 41°C and above (14–17 January) and two nights in a row at 27°C or above (15–16 January) (BoM 2014b). Adelaide sweltered through a record-breaking five consecutive days of 42°C and above, and Canberra experienced a record run of four days of 39°C (BoM 2014b). During the summer of 2013/2014, Canberra recorded 20 days of at least 35°C (BoM 2014c).

Since 1950 the number of heatwave days each year has been increasing in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart, and across Australia as a whole (Perkins and Alexander 2013; Climate Council 2014).

Climate change and heatwaves

Hot days, hot nights and extended periods of hot weather – heatwaves – are one of the most direct consequences of climate change (Climate Council 2014). The increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is trapping more heat in the atmosphere. This increases the likelihood of heatwaves and hot days and decreases the likelihood of cold weather (IPCC 2013).

Since 1960, the annual number of record hot days in Australia has doubled (CSIRO and BoM 2012) and over the past decade, record hot days have occurred three times more often than record cold days (Trewin and Smalley 2013; CSIRO and BoM 2014). Since 2001, the number of extreme heat records has been almost three times greater than the number of cold records for daytime temperatures, and almost five times greater for nighttime temperatures (CSIRO and BoM 2014). The nature of heatwaves in Australia is also changing: they are becoming hotter, lasting longer, starting earlier, and occurring more frequently (Perkins and Alexander 2013; Climate Council of Australia 2014).

Although Australia has always experienced hot weather, it now occurs more often, and is more intense because of climate change. Australia is not unique. Over the past decade, a remarkably large number of record-breaking and devastating heatwaves have occurred in many other parts of the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012).

4

Source: BoM 2014a; BoM 2014b

Figure 2: Individual site records broken during major heatwaves that scorched Australia during the summer of 2013/2014

TEMPERATURERECORDSBROKEN

2013/2014

angry summer

42.2OCcaPe WillouGhBY sa

42.5OC (=)BurrinJucK daM nsW

47.3OCurandanGi Qld

39.5OCtooWooMBa Qld

47OC (=)cunnaMulla Qld

49.1OCWalGett nsW

45.9OCGunnedah research nsW

41.1OC 44.2OCinverell research nsW

dunedoo nsW

44OCcoonanBaraBran nsW

41.9OC 45.7OCinverell (raGlan st) nsW

surat Qld

45.1OCtaMWorth nsW

37.8OCaPPlethorPe Qld

47.1OCQuilPie Qld

45.1OCQuirindi nsW

46OCKeith sa

45.6OCBrunette doWns nt

48OCWindorah Qld

47.3OCMoree nsW

36.9OCnePtune island sa

32.4OCcaBraMurra nsW

48.2OCMunGindi nsW

41.5OCPindari daM nsW

36OCGlen innes aG nsW

42.5OCMudGee nsW

45.7OCBlacKall Qld

46.4OCGoondiWindi Qld

47.2OCst. GeorGe Qld

44.5OCtaMBo Qld

42.4OCGYMPie Qld

44.1OCinJune Qld

47.5OCKellerBerrin Wa

45.8OCnaracoorte sa

48OCcollareneBri nsW

47.8OCnarraBri nsW

45.3OCtarooM Qld

41OC (=)KinGaroY Qld

45.8OCroMa Qld

40.5OCtuMBaruMBa nsW

36.9OCarMidale nsW

41.2OCMurrurundi nsW

47.6OCcoonaMBle nsW

44.9OCBarraBa nsW

44OCWaGin Wa

hottest dailY MaXiMuM teMPerature on record

44.1OCMount GaMBier sa

48.9OC (=)tarcoola sa

47.4OCeucla Wa

45.7OCsouthern cross Wa

46.6OCisisford Qld

46OCcharleville Qld

46.5OCforrest Wa

44.3OCclerMont Qld

41.5OCrocKhaMPtoM Qld

38.3OCtaBulaM nsW

29.7OCPerth Metro Wa

28.6OCBendiGo vic

28.8OCessendon vic

27.4OCararat vic

29.1OCcaPe Borda sa

30.5OC28.5OC 23OC 29.2OC 26.2OCBarcaldine QldcaPe nelson vic aPPlethorPe Qld roMa Qld taBulaM nsW

31.5OCBrunette doWns nt

26.8OC 29.7OC 29.4OCMonto Qld Mitchell Qld surat Qld

30.5OCWonGan hills Wa

49.2OC

45.2OC

eMu creeK Wa

BrooKton Wa

46.4OCBeverleY Wa

44.5OConGeruP Wa

46.3OC

45.9OC

northaM Wa

corriGin Wa

43.2OC

33.9OC

elliston sa

laKe st. claire tas38OClocKhart river Qld

37.5OCWoolBrooK nsW

44OC (=)

36.2OC 42.3OC

staWell vic

strathGordon tas GulonG nsW43.9OChuGhenden Qld

46OCcaMooWeal Qld

47.4OCcooBer PedY sa

46.6OC

45.1OC

YorK Wa

laKe Grace Wa

44.4OC

43.8OC

PinGellY Wa

MarYBorouGh vic

44.6OC 44.9OCBairnsdale vic Barcaldine Qld

38OCstrahan tas

28.6OCMooraBBin vic

31.2OCPearce Wa

hottest deceMBer MaXiMuM teMPerature on record

WarMest niGht on record (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature)

hottest JanuarY MaXiMuM teMPerature on record

28.4OChorn island Qld

29.5OCtaMBo Wld

28.5OCPerth airPort Wa

28.7OCWeiPa Qld

30.4OCYuenduMu nt

WarMest JanuarY niGht on record (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature)

31OCWiluna Wa

WarMest deceMBer niGht on record (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature)

sYdneY

adelaide

Perth

canBerra

MelBourne

hoBart

BrisBane

darWin

roMa QLD broke its record for highest maximum

temperature 3 tiMes

this summer (29 Dec, 30 Dec

and 3 Jan)narraBri

NSW broke its previous highest

maximum temperature record

47.8°C by 3.6°c– the largest margin

for any Australian location with 40+ years of data

Barcaldine QLD

had a run of 10 consecutive days of 40ºc or above (a site record)

also experienced the HIGHEST WEEKLY AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES

43.2ºc (a site record)

charleville QLD

had its highest weekly average maximum

temperature43.4°c

(a site record)

urandanGi QLD

had a run of 5 consecutive days

of 45ºc or above – a site record and two more than the previous

record of 3 days

5

The IPCC Special Report on Extremes (2012) and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) project that it is virtually certain (greater than 99 percent probability) that hot extremes will increase and cold extremes will decrease through the century compared to the current climate.

Rainfall extremes (high and low)Australia is a large country and rainfall varies across the continent.

What happened? Dry conditions prevailed in many regions, particularly much of inland eastern Australia which was affected by drought conditions (BoM 2014i). Northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland experienced serious rainfall deficits (lowest 10 percent of records), and Sydney had its driest summer in almost thirty years (BoM 2014i). Other smaller areas of Victoria, Tasmania and southwest Western Australia were also affected by serious rainfall deficits (BoM 2014i). On the other hand, rainfall was above average across the west of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, through the north and west of the Northern Territory, through most of Western Australia and along the coast

of South Australia. A large part of this area experienced the highest 10 percent of summer rainfall records. In the tropical north and eastern Western Australia, the majority of summer rainfall was the result of tropical cyclones or significant tropical lows (BoM 2014i).

Climate change and rainfall extremesThe conditions that cause drought and rainfall are complex. While some parts of Australia have become wetter, much of the eastern part of Australia has become drier over the past four decades (Climate Commission 2013; BoM 2014l).

Since the 1960s, southeast Australia has experienced a number of major droughts. One of the most severe was the recent Millennium Drought (1997-2009), for which there is some evidence of a climate change influence (CSIRO 2012). The intensity of the subtropical ridge (STR), a high pressure system that often lies over southern Australia, has been implicated in the decreased rainfall in the southeast (CSIRO 2010). Rising global temperatures have been linked to an increase in the intensity of the STR (Timbal and Drosdowsky 2013), with the result being a drier and more drought-prone southeast Australia.

Figure 3: The summer mean temperature anomaly for Australia (1910-2013) indicating a continuing trend of hotter summers, including eight of the hottest summers on record occurring in the past fifteen years. The summer anomaly is a deviation from the long-term average (1961 to 1990).

Data source: Modified from BoM 2014m

Mean temperature anomaly of Australian summers (1910–2013) above the long-term average

1910

0 0

0.5 0.5

Year

Mea

n t

emp

erat

ure

an

oma

ly (

°C)

1 1

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

eight of the hottest summers on

record in australia have occurred in

the last fifteen years

6

BushfiresBushfires – a natural part of the Australian landscape – can severely affect biodiversity, human health, property, economic activity and infrastructure.

What happened?

The intense and prolonged heatwaves that affected several capital cities and their surrounding regions this summer stacked the odds towards more severe bushfire weather. Fires burnt near Perth in mid-January 2014, destroying property and costing an early-figure estimate of $15 million (ICA 2014). Fires also burnt large areas of Victoria’s Grampians (The Age, 18 January 2014), and threatened communities on Melbourne’s fringe (The Age, 11 February 2014) and in South Australia (The Guardian, 9 February 2014).

Climate change and bushfires

Climate change is driving an increase in the risk of bushfires. More hot days and the increasing intensity, duration and frequency of heatwaves mean that the chance of very high fire danger weather – and in turn bushfires – is increasing (Climate Council 2013). Since the 1970s, significant increases in fire danger weather has been observed in the southeast of Australia (Clarke et al. 2013; CSIRO and BoM 2014).

The future for extreme weather in AustraliaAustralia has experienced hotter summers since the middle of the 20th century (Figure 3), including eight of the hottest summers on record occurring in the last fifteen years. Over the coming decades, it is virtually certain that extreme hot weather will continue to become even more frequent and severe in Australia and other parts of the world.

To slow and eventually halt the increase in extreme heat and rising bushfire risk, the climate needs to be stabilized. This requires a rapid, deep and long-term reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The current trend of rising global emissions needs to be turned around by 2020 and the right investment decisions need to be made over the next few years to deliver the longer term emission reductions that are required.

This is the critical decade for action. We are now in 2014 and approaching the halfway point in the decade. Despite the promising developments in low carbon technologies and energy efficiency measures, Australians have not yet reached a consensus on the need to decarbonize our economy and on the development of policies that will turn investments towards a decarbonized future. This challenge must be met if we are to minimize the risk of worsening extreme weather events for our children and grandchildren. It’s time to get on with the job.

7

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BoM (2014a) Special Climate Statement 47 – an intense heatwave in central eastern Australia. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs47.pdf.

BoM (2014b) Special Climate Statement 48 – one of southeast Australia’s most significant heatwaves. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs48.pdf.

BoM (2014c) Canberra in summer 2013–14: Hot, dry summer for Canberra. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/act/summary.shtml.

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BoM (2014j) Rainfall deficiencies increase in Queensland and adjacent New South Wales and South Australia. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204.shtml.www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204.shtml.

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Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: Print: 978-0-9924142-4-5 Web: 978-0-9924142-5-2

© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2014

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