Climate Change.

What does it mean for Ag in Whatcom?

Guillaume Mauger

Climate Impacts Group

Substantial Warming, Variable Rainfall

Section 2: Climate

Climate Impacts Group P a g e | 2-2 College of the Environment, University of Washington

Nighttime air temperatures are rising faster than daytime air temperatures in the Puget Sound lowlands. Daily minimum air temperatures (which generally occur at night) have increased by +1.8°F between 1895 and 2014, while daily maximum air temperatures (generally occurring in afternoon) warmed by +0.8°F over the same time period.D,1

The frost-free season has lengthened. The frost-free season (and the associated growing season) in the Puget Sound region lengthened by +30 days (range: +18 to +41 days) from 1920 to 2014.E,3,4

Figure 2-1. Temperature is rising in the Puget Sound lowlands, and there is no long term trend in precipitation. Average annual air temperature (top left, red, in °F) and total annual precipitation (top right, blue, in %) for the Puget Sound Lowlands climate divisionD (dark blue shading in map), shown relative to the average for 1950-1999 (black horizontal line in both graphs, corresponding to 50.3°F for annual aveage temperature and 43.6 inches for annual total precipitation). The dashed line in the temperature plot is the fitted trend, indicating a warming of +1.3°F (range: +0.7°F to +1.9°F)B from 1895 to 2014. The trend for precipitation is not statistically significant, and therefore is not shown. Data source: Vose et al. 2014.D,1

E Trends are based on an average of the anomalies (difference between each year and the long-term average) for the

eight Puget Sound stations used by Abatzoglou et al. (2014).3 Stations were only included in the analysis if at least 75% of years of monitoring data available, with each year missing no more than 20% of days within a year, from 1920-2014. Data were obtained from John Abatzoglou, with trends estimated using a standard linear regression. The range gives the 95% confidence limits.

Historical

Low Emissions (RCP 4.5)

High Emissions (RCP 8.5)

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

0°F

5°F

10°F

15°F

0°F

5°F

10°F

15°F

Year

Temperature Difference(Relative to 1950−1999 average)

Year

Precipitation Change(Relative to 1950−1999 average)

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

−40%

−20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

−40%

−20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Substantial Warming, Variable Rainfall

2015 (+4°F)

2015 (-10%)

What did we see in 2015?

• Economic loss between $633-773 million

• Blueberries | Reduced in size, yield, and quality. Statewide loss ~$8M

• Red Raspberries | Reduced in size and quality. Statewide loss ~$14M

• Wheat | Reduced yield, heat shriveled kernels, & elevated protein levels (affects marketability); loss ~$212.4 million

• Skagit County | 10% loss throughout, or ~$27M

Photo credit: Ecology WA. September 2015 -. https://www.whatcomfruit.com/the-way-we-live-in-washington.html

http://agr.wa.gov/FP/Pubs/docs/495-2015DroughtReport.pdf

Early peak flows

Floods

Warming, Acidification(?)

Warm, low streamflow

Salmon Impacted Across Full Life-Cycle

Ag: Four main impacts

1. Crops

2. Pests/Invasives

3. Water supply

4. Flooding/Drainage

(

Our primary mechanism for storing water – snow – is sensitive to warming.

The Cascade and Olympic

Mountains have the highest

fraction of “warm snow”

(snow falling between 27-32°F)

in the continental U.S. (Mote et al. 2008)

Snow

Warner, Mass, Salathé, J Hydromet, 2014

More Intense

Heavy Rains

Heaviest rain events are

projected to become

+22% more intense

(range: +5 to +34%) by

the 2080s.

Sea Level Rise

• By 2100, sea level in the region is projected to rise an additional +24 in. (range: +4 to +56 in.)

• Local rates of rise vary; research is beginning to quantify local variations.

• Storm surge will not increase, but higher seas will carry surge farther inland.

Alki Beach, West Seattle, January 21, 2010 Photo by Hugh Shipman, WA Dept. of Ecology

Snow has a major effect on streamflow.

Snow keeps water out of the rivers when we don’t

want it, and releases it when we do.

2015 Cedarville Discharge

Projected streamflow at Cedarville USGS gauging site

+40 to +120%

-40 to -70%

Warming Streams

By the 2080s:

• Stream temperatures, on average, are projected to increase by +4.0°F to +4.5°F.

• Number of river miles exceeding thermal tolerances are projected to increase by >1,000 mi. for salmon, and >2,800 mi. for char

Data source: NorWeST, Figure source: Climate Impacts Group

Sea Level Rise, Peak flows, & Flooding

http://www.skagitclimatescience.org/flood-scenario-map/

UW Climate Impacts Group

cig.uw.edu

gmauger@uw.edu

(206) 685-0317 Climate Science in the

Public Interest

Visualizing Flood Risk

Existing conditions of Walmart in Mount Vernon, WA.

Visual simulation of Walmart in Mount Vernon, WA during a major fl ood event (the FEMA 100-year

fl ood). Floodwaters are estimated to rise 10.6 feet above ground elevation at this site.

FIL

E N

AM

E:

SC

2_

ph

oto

sim

_20

15

-09-1

1.in

dd

/ C

RE

AT

ED

BY

: G

WB

/ D

AT

E: 0

9-1

1-2

015

Existing conditions of Walmart in Mount Vernon, WA.

Visual simulation of Walmart in Mount Vernon, WA during a major fl ood event (the FEMA 100-year

fl ood). Floodwaters are estimated to rise 10.6 feet above ground elevation at this site.

FIL

E N

AM

E:

SC

2_

ph

oto

sim

_20

15

-09-1

1.in

dd

/ C

RE

AT

ED

BY

: G

WB

/ D

AT

E: 0

9-1

1-2

015

Wildfires

• Historically, Puget Sound wildfires have been rare, but large.

• The annual area burned by wildfire in Puget Sound could more than double by the 2080s.

Source: www.nbcnews.com