Dave SauchynPrairie Adaptation Research CollaborativeUniversity of Regina

Climate Change & Water Issues for Agriculture Production on the Prairies

Manitoba Forage Symposium Winnipeg, 14 March 2007

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

0.31996

0.311988

0.321999

0.332000

0.351991

0.381995

0.381990

0.41997

0.482001

0.492004

0.542006

0.552003

0.562002

0.571998

0.632005

Northern Hemisphere temperature, past 2000 years

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

ProxyMeasured

Moberg, et al., 2005

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis -Summary for Policymakers, February 2, 2007

4th Assessment Report

800+ contributing authors450+ lead authors from 130+ countries2500+ scientitic expert reviewers 6 years of work4 volumes

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

• The warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years

• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations

• Anthropogenic warming would continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized

Canadian National Assessment – early fall, 2007

http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess_e.php

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

2006 Temperatures: Departures from Normal (1961-90)

Change in temperature (C) from baseline (1961-90)

CGCM2 A212050s

Winnipeg - Mean Temperature 2050 - CGCM3

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December

oC

1961-90

A1B_1A2_1

B1_1

Winnipeg - Mean Precipitation 2050 - CGCM3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December

mm

1961-90

A1B_1A2_1

B1_1

slightly to significantly less surface and soil water

one of the most certain projections is that extra water will be available in winter and spring and summers generally will be drier

Alberta

Manitoba

Ontario

Montana

Saskatchewan

Idaho

British Columbia

Minnesota

North Dakota

Oregon

Washington

WisconsinSouth Dakota

Wyoming

Michigan

Saskatchewan River

Churchill River

Peace River

Red River

Lake Winnipeg

Athabasca River

Assiniboine River

Hayes River

Winnipeg River

Nelson River

Missouri River

Seal River

3

40

11

1

0

10

0

62

30

27

0

Boise

Helena

Regina

Calgary

Winnipeg

Edmonton

Bismarck

Saskatoon

Saint PaulMinneapolis

Source:Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A.Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute

Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins-median annual runoff-

0 100 20050

Kilometers

Prairie Drainage Basins

http://www.parc.ca/ssrb/index.html

Red Deer at Bindloss-13%(-32% to 13%)

South Sask atDiefenbaker-8.5%(-22% to 8%)

Oldman at mouth- 4%(-13% to 8%)

Bow River at mouth-10%(-19% to 1%)

Projected annual flow, 2039 – 2070

Pietroniro et al., 2006

South Sask River at Diefenbaker

0

100

200

300400

500

600

700

current ech had ncarclimatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rage

m

3/se

c)

winterspringsummerfall

Oldman River at Mouth

0

50100

150

200

250300

350

current ech had ncarclimatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rage

m

3/se

c )

winterspringsummerfall

GCM %Precip +Tempecha21 -3.8 2.8echb21 -2.0 2.8hada21 6.4 2.3hadb21 0.2 2.1ncara21 11.5 1.7ncarb21 9.1 1.5

driest, warmest

moderately wet and warm

wettest and least warm

Description

Bow River at Calgary

0

50

100

150

200

250

current ech had ncarclimatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rage

m

3/se

c)

winterspringsummerfall

Bow River at Mouth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

current ech had ncarclimatology

mod

elle

d flo

ws

(ave

rage

m

3/se

c)winterspringsummerfall

Seasonal flows, SSRB, 2039-2070

Pietroniro et al., 2006

Closed-basin Prairie Lakes

van der Kamp et al.)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Years

Rel

ativ

e Le

vels

(m)

Whitewater Lake(MB)

Big Quill Lake (SK)

Manito Lake (SK)

Redberry Lake(SK)

Upper Mann Lake(AB)

Spring Lake (AB)

Little Fish Lake(AB)

____________

Dry

Dry

Water level changes, 1918-2004 (van der Kamp et al.)

Closed-basin prairie lakes

Coping Range

Time

Adaptationimplementation

Climatic changeClimatic variability

There will be greater variation from season to season and year to year

Both drought and unusually wet years could occur with greater frequency and severity

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Dep

artu

res

(bu/

acre

s)

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-200

-100

0

100

200

Dep

artu

res

(mm

)

Wheat Yields

Precipitation

Wheat Yields, Saskatchewan / Precipitation, Saskatoon, 1906-2002

020

4060

Retu

rn P

erio

d (y

ears

)

10 15 20 25 30Length of Dry Spell (days)

Central North America

Today

~2070

Increasing Drought Frequency

Kharin and Zwiers 2000

Tree-Ring Sampling Sites

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

JJA PDSI < 0, Calgary, 1895-2002

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

TRI (-ve departures), WCH, 1895-2004

r = 0.628

1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

-4

-2

0

2

4 PDSI, Calgary, 1341-2004

At Edmonton House, a large fire burned “all around us” on April 27th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water.

Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post “for want of water” in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, “there being no water in the

river.” (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

Spring 1796, Edmonton House

At Edmonton House, a large fire burned “all around us” on April 27th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water.

Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post “for want of water” in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, “there being no water in the

river.” (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

Spring 1796, Edmonton House

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1402

1422

1442

1462

1482

1502

1522

1542

1562

1582

1602

1622

1642

1662

1682

1702

1722

1742

1762

1782

1802

1822

1842

1862

1882

1902

1922

1942

1962

1982

2002

Dep

artu

res

from

the

mea

n

South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat, 1402-2004

Paleohydroclimate, northern Chile

Jonathan Barichivich, Laboratorio de DendrocronologíaUniversidad Austral de Chile,Valdivia

Wavelet power spectra

Wavelet power spectrum

A “myth of abundance” and an assumption that “the hydrological regime is stationary and will continue to be stationary in the future”.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1016

0216

1216

2216

3216

4216

5216

6216

7216

8216

9217

0217

1217

2217

3217

4217

5217

6217

7217

8217

9218

0218

1218

2218

3218

4218

5218

6218

7218

8218

9219

0219

1219

2219

3219

4219

5219

6219

7219

8219

9220

02

Dep

artu

res

from

the

mea

n

Most impacts are adverse because economies and activities are not adapted to change

The impacts of climate change will depend on how well we adapt and how much adapation is required

The degree to which adjustments are possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate (IPCC, 2001).

Adaptation

Adaptive CapacityDeterminant ExplanationEconomic resources

Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options

Technology Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations

Information and skills

Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation

Infrastructure Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it provides more options Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity

Institutions Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity

Equity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity Both availability of, and access to, resources is important

Adaptation Options

Share the Loss

Bear the Loss

Modify the Events

Prevent the Effects

Research

Education, Behavioural

Avoid the Impacts

Structural, Technological

Legislative, Regulatory, Financial

Institutional, Administrative

Market-based

On-site Operations

Change Use

Change Location

Dennis McKerracherJV Farms, High River, AB

•one-year trial, from August 2004 to July 2005, the ball-bite drinker sections of the barn used 35 per cent less water that the standard drinker sections

•no detrimental effects on the animals or facility management. the

•significant decrease in water usage led to many secondary benefits

ball-bite drinker

standard drinker

• Are we optimal – with everything perfected?• Nature – conservation of mass and energy,

cascades and transforms • Human systems – 15% used, 85% wasted• Maybe we are outrageously imperfect?• Maybe change pays?

C. KirklandSaskEnergy Leadership Forum, Oct 21/02

Does change cost?

NewburyHydraulics

Thanks