Climate Change Vulnerability in Norway

Socio-economic Perspectives on Socio-economic Perspectives on Policies and ImpactsPolicies and Impacts

Karen O’Brien CICERO

Approaches to Studying Climate Change Impacts

© Seppo Leinonen, www.seppo.net

Climatic Change Scenarios(RegClim)

First-Order Impacts(Climatic Properties: temperature, precipitation)

Second-Order Impacts(Crop Yields)

Third-Order Impacts(Regional Productivity)

Higher-Order Impacts(Farm Income, Consumer Prices, etc.)

Impacts of Climatic Change

Impact Assessment

Vulnerability Approaches to Impacts

VulnerabilityVulnerability describes describes the extent to which a the extent to which a system is susceptible to system is susceptible to sustaining damage from sustaining damage from climate change.climate change.

Aspects of Vulnerability

Biophysical vulnerabilityBiophysical vulnerability Social vulnerabilitySocial vulnerability

IPCC Conceptualization of Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a function of the character, Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Sensitivity

The degree to which a The degree to which a system will respond, system will respond, either positively or either positively or negatively, to a change negatively, to a change in climate.in climate.

Exposure

The degree of climate The degree of climate stress upon a particular stress upon a particular unit of analysisunit of analysis

Climate stress: Climate stress: long-term climate conditionslong-term climate conditions climate variabilityclimate variability magnitude and frequency of magnitude and frequency of

extreme eventsextreme events

Adaptive Capacity

The capacity of a The capacity of a system to adjust in system to adjust in response to actual or response to actual or expected climate expected climate stimuli, their effects, or stimuli, their effects, or impacts.impacts.

IPCC conclusion:

” ”Those with the least resources have the Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.”vulnerable.”

Is Norway vulnerable to climate change?

Which regions, sectors, and social groups within Norway are most vulnerable to climate change?

Climate Change and Extreme EventsFylke Average annual

disbursement 80-00, mill NOK, (2001-

value)

Flooda Storma Avalanche/landslidea

Møre og Romsdal 61,7 5.4 % 91.2 % 3.2 %

Hedmark 48,1 92.1 % 7.3 % 0.5 %

Akershus/Oslo 46,0 53.5 % 42.8 % 3.6 %

Nordland 45,0 4.2 % 87.3 % 8.5 %

Hordaland 27,7 7.2 % 81.7 % 11.0 %

Sør-Trøndelag 24,2 5.6 % 86.6 % 7.6 %

Sogn og Fjordane 18,7 10.3 % 79.4 % 9.7 %

Oppland 21,3 81.0 % 14.5 % 4.3 %

Nord-Trøndelag 19,3 19.1 % 72.3 % 8.5 %

Troms 22,0 5.8 % 84.8 % 8.9 %

Rogaland 18,1 12.1 % 85.8 % 2.0 %

Buskerud 18,0 46.6 % 33.5 % 19.8 %

Telemark 15,3 46.8 % 41.7 % 11.1 %

Østfold 14,1 47.7 % 48.6 % 3.6 %

Finnmark 12,3 3.7 % 79.5 % 16.6 %

Vestfold 10,3 19.8 % 69.1 % 10.3 %

Vest-Agder 10,3 16.8 % 80.3 % 2.9 %

Aust-Agder 1,7 31.7 % 60.9 % 7.2 %

Vulnerable sectors:

AgricultureAgriculture

ForestryForestry

Winter tourismWinter tourism

Indicators of biophysical vulnerability: Agricultural sector

Spring rainfallSpring rainfall Autumn rainfallAutumn rainfall Length of growing seasonLength of growing season Spring frost/thawSpring frost/thaw Autumn frost/thawAutumn frost/thaw Snow depthSnow depth

Indicators of social vulnerability:agricultural sectorClimate sensitivityClimate sensitivity Employment in agricultural sector, %Employment in agricultural sector, %

Economic capacityEconomic capacity Untied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOKUntied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOK Employment growth prognosis, %Employment growth prognosis, %

Demographic capacityDemographic capacity Dependency rate, %Dependency rate, % Aging working population, %Aging working population, % Net migration rate, avg. 91-01 %Net migration rate, avg. 91-01 %

How correct are these indicators?

Case studies must be carried out to verify Case studies must be carried out to verify the indicators selected, and identify factors the indicators selected, and identify factors that shape vulnerability in Norwegian that shape vulnerability in Norwegian municipalities.municipalities.

Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Oppdal Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Oppdal (June 2003)(June 2003)

Vulnerability is shaped by numerous social and biophysical factors Social welfare policiesSocial welfare policies Globalization and regionalizationGlobalization and regionalization Disease outbreaksDisease outbreaks

Vulnerability to Climate Change Policies

SensitivitySensitivity % employment in secondary sector% employment in secondary sector % of CO% of CO22 emissions coming from industry emissions coming from industry

Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity Economic factorsEconomic factors Demographic factorsDemographic factors

Vulnerability:

A differential conceptA differential concept A dynamic conceptA dynamic concept Scale dependentScale dependent Shaped by multiple stressorsShaped by multiple stressors

A vulnerability approach can improve our understanding of socio-

economic perspectives on climate impacts and policies, and help in

identifying and targeting adaptation strategies.

Thanks to the project team!

Asbjørn Aaheim, Guro Aandahl, Sjur Kasa, Bård Romstad, Asbjørn Aaheim, Guro Aandahl, Sjur Kasa, Bård Romstad, Linda Sygna, Heather Tompkins, Anders Undertun Linda Sygna, Heather Tompkins, Anders Undertun (CICERO)(CICERO)

Geir Orderud and Bjørnar Sæter (NIBR) Geir Orderud and Bjørnar Sæter (NIBR)