Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness ... · Climate Change Vulnerability and...

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness in South Africa March 2010 By Masego Madzwamuse

Transcript of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness ... · Climate Change Vulnerability and...

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness

in South Africa

March 2010

By Masego Madzwamuse

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This report presents the findings of one of three studies commissioned by the Heinrich Böll Stiftung Southern Africa (HBS) in Botswana , South Africa and Zimbabwe to evaluate the state of preparedness for climate change adaptation in the region.

The Heinrich Böll Stiftung, associated with the German Green Party, is a legally autonomous and intellectually open political foundation. Its foremost task is civic education in Germany and abroad with the aim of promoting informed democratic opinion, socio-political commitment and mutual understanding. In addition, the Heinrich Böll Stiftung supports artistic and cultural, as well as scholarly projects, and co-operation in the development field. The political values of ecology, democracy, gender democracy, solidarity and non-violence are the foundation’s chief points of reference. Heinrich Böll’s belief in, and promotion of citizen participation in politics is the model for the foundation’s work.

Heinrich Böll Stiftung Southern AfricaThe Avalon Building123 Hope StreetGardens, 8001Cape TownSouth Africa

Tel: +27 (0) 21 461 62 66Fax: +27 (0) 462 71 87Email: [email protected]://www.boell.org.za

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Contents

ACronymS vExECuTiVE SummAry vi

CHAPTEr 1: introduction 11.1 methodology and Conceptual Framework used to Assess Vulnerability 1

CHAPTEr 2: Background 42.1 Country Profile 42.1.1 Geographic Profile 42.1.2 Socio-economic Profile 42.1.3 Land use 5

CHAPTEr 3: Climate Change impacts and Vulnerability 63.1 Agriculture, rangelands and Food Security 63.2 Water resources 73.3 Biodiversity and Ecosystems 103.4 Poverty and Socio-Economic Vulnerability 113.5 Health 12

CHAPTEr 4: Climate Change Adaptation Policy Analysis 144.1 overview of Climate Change Adaptation 144.2 national Legislative Framework 154.3 Key Policies and related Strategies 164.3.1 national Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, 2005 174.3.2 national Water Policy 184.3.3 national Water resource Strategy 194.3.4 integrated Sustainable rural Development Strategy, 2000 194.3.5 Agriculture and land policy reform 20

CHAPTEr 5: Climate Change Adaptation institutional Analysis 245.1 Government Actors 245.1.1 national Climate Change Committee (nCC) 255.1.2 Government Committee on Climate Change (GCCC) 255.1.3 Department of Water and Environmental Affairs (DWEA) 255.1.4 Department of Science and Technology (DST) 255.1.5 Provincial and Local Government 26

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5.1.6 non–Governmental organisations (nGos) 275.1.7 research institutions 28

CHAPTEr 6: Public Awareness of Climate Change 29

CHAPTEr 7: regional and international Action 31

CHAPTEr 8: Conclusions and recommendations 32

references 33

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AcronymS

AU African UnionCEC Committee for Environmental CoordinationCSAG Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape TownCSM Climate System Model projectCSO Civil Society OrganisationDEAT Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism DFID Department for International Development, UKDWAF Department of Water Affairs and ForestryEIPs Environmental Implementation PlansEMG Environmental Monitoring Group EMPs Environmental Management PlansFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentHBF Heinrich Böll FoundationIDPs Integrated Development PlansGDP Gross Domestic ProductGEAR Growth, Employment and Redistribution planGCCC Government Committee on Climate ChangeLDCs Least Developed CountriesLRAD Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development programmeMDG Millennium Development GoalsNBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action PlanNCCRS National Climate Change Response StrategyNCCC National Climate Change CommitteeNEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s DevelopmentNGOs Non-Governmental OrganisationsNVFFA National Veld and Forest Fire ActNWRS National Water Research StrategyIDP Integrated Development PlanIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIRDP Integrated Rural Development ProgrammeISDRS Integrated and Sustainable Rural Development StrategyIUCN International Union for Conservation of NatureRDP Reconstruction and Development ProgrammeSEMA Specific Environmental Managing ActSADC Southern African Development CommunitySACAN South African Climate Action NetworkSANBI South African National Biodiversity InstituteSBTSA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological AdviceUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeWRC Water Research CommissionWWF World Wildlife Fund

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Executive SummaryClimate change is an imminent threat facing the world in the 21st century and beyond. The consequences of increased temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, sea level rise and changes in biodiversity will have significant impacts on national economies, rural livelihoods and development in general. Africa is said to be the continent that is the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as a result of national economies that are largely dependent on natural resources. It is now understood that Africa and particularly the poor will be hardest hit by climate change and yet developing and least developed states have low adaptive capacity. Many factors compound the impacts of climate change in Africa as well as undermine adaptive capacity. These include poverty, illiteracy and lack of skills, weak economies, limited infrastructure, weak institutions, lack of technology and information, poor access to resources, low management capacities and armed conflicts.

Climate change threatens to reverse the gains of sustainable development with the most significant impacts expected to affect key sectors of the economies. Agricultural production, for instance, is projected to fall by 50% due to a reduction in rainfall and increases in temperatures, while the majority of African states will be faced with water scarcity and stress by 2050. Climate change is thus an urgent development issue and adaptation to the impacts of climate change has become essential alongside mitigation. The Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBF) has therefore commissioned a study to evaluate the state of preparedness for climate change adaptation in selected countries in southern Africa, namely, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. This report presents the findings of the South Africa case study.

In South Africa, potential changes over the next 50 years show a warming of between 1°C and 3°C; a potential reduction of approximately 5 to 10% of current rainfall; increased daily maximum temperatures in summer and autumn in the western half of the country; increased incidents of flood and drought; and enhanced temperature inversions which are likely to exacerbate air pollution problems. These changes are likely to have significant impacts on the South African economy. The South African Country Studies Programme identified health, agriculture (particularly maize production), plant

and animal biodiversity, water resources and rangelands as the most vulnerable sectors.

Agricultural systems in South Africa will be significantly affected by increased temperatures, reduced rainfall and water scarcity. Major impacts include reduction in the amount of land suitable for both arable and pastoral agriculture, the reduction in the length of the growing season and a decrease in yields, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas. Climate change is likely to further reduce agriculture’s contribution to the GDP, which has been declining over the years. In 1998, agriculture and forestry contributed 4.0% to GDP, a significant drop inform the 9.1% measured in 1965 (NDA, 2000). These changes will negatively impact on both large-scale agriculture, which relies on irrigation, small-scale farmers and the rural poor who practice rain-fed agriculture. The projected impacts have far-reaching consequences for national food security and the national economy. A number of factors undermine the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers and these are attributed to social, governance and economic issues. These include land tenure and user rights, gender, local governance, poverty and in some cases culture and indigenous knowledge (Lewis. 2009). The impacts of climate change will also affect the livestock sector. Rangelands will be lost due to tree encroachment resulting from a decrease in grasslands due to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations and an increase in temperature. Climate change may also affect the frequency and spatial extent of livestock disease outbreaks, such as foot and mouth disease.

The water sector is also highly sensitive to climate change. It is projected that by 2025 South Africa together with a number of other African countries would have reached levels of both water stress and scarcity. South Africa is located in a predominantly semi-arid part of the world, with much of the country experiencing frequent droughts and floods. Climate change is expected to alter the present hydrological resources in South Africa and the rest of the Southern African region and add pressure on the adaptability of future water resources. Predicted shortages of water will have devastating effects on the agricultural sector, which is by far the largest water user, accounting for 62% of the national water allocation. Irrigation, which is a traditional adaptation strategy in arid and semi-arid regions, will no longer be feasible.

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Water security will be a major issue for South Africa as 98% of the national water resources have already been allocated with high level of assurance. In addition to the over commitment of water resources, South Africa has lost its dilution capacity due to high levels of contamination from the mining industry and effluent from major cities (Turton, 2008). The country is thus faced with both a water shortage and a water quality problem that is likely to get worse due to climate change impacts.

Climate change is a big threat to the national biodiversity resource base, which is not only important for the national economy but also of significant global value. The predicted warming of the bio-climate and aridification are predicted to shrink the country’s biome by 38 to 55% of their current coverage (Kiker, 2000). The largest losses are predicted to occur in the western, central and northern parts of the country. These include a complete loss or displacement of the existing succulent Karoo Biome along the west coast and the interior coastal plain, an intensive eastward shift of the Nama Karoo Biome across the interior plateau and contraction of the Savannah biome on the northern borders of the

country and its expansion into the grassland biome. In terms of impacts on wildlife (fauna species) distribution, potential changes include a concentration of animal species in the eastern escarpment regions with significant losses in drier zones within the country. Loss of such ecosystems will have significant consequences for local communities as well as national economies. Biodiversity is important for South Africa because of its role in maintaining functional ecosystems, its economic value for tourism and its supporting role in livelihoods. Tourism, for instance, has overtaken agriculture in its contribution to the GDP. In 1996 tourism contributed 10% to GDP and has been recognised as one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy (DEAT, 2005). Informal resource use is also an essential livelihood strategy for many poor rural communities, particularly in the forest and savannah biomes (ibid). Communities harvest natural resources for medicinal use, for food, shelter, fuel and craft production.

A critical element to climate vulnerability in South Africa is the issue of poverty. Poverty remains a daunting challenge in South Africa after sixteen years of democratic rule. A significant number of South Africans still live in appalling conditions on the peripheries of the country’s modern economy (Desai, 2005; Bond, 2006; Noyoo, nd; Fryer, nd). Marginalised and vulnerable, many communities continue to face the difficult task of sustaining their livelihoods in a country that is perceived by many on the African continent, as a “First World” country (Noyoo, nd). It is estimated that over 78% of South Africans are poor and that the majority (70%) of the poor live in rural areas (ISRDS, 2000). More than 85% of the countryside is settled by commercial farmers and population pressure in former homelands has resulted in a depletion of the natural resource base. These areas tend to be isolated from economic hubs, necessitating costly transport to jobs and in pursuit of other livelihood activities. The natural resource base to which the poor in South Africa have access cannot provide rural people with a means of subsistence and is facing significant threats from climate change impacts.

Limited access to land and natural resources further limits land-based climate change adaptation options.

An additional dimension of the poverty question in South Africa is income poverty. The country’s Gini coefficient index, which measures inequality, is fourth worst in the world (World Bank, 2000). An estimated 62.2% of the rural households in the Kwazulu-Natal province are living below the poverty datum line (ibid). Poverty is also high in former white areas, mainly on farms, where farm labourers in particular are faced with a lack of economic opportunities and access to some of the most basic services. These conditions provide a context for the risks and exposure of the poor to the impacts of climate change variability and impacts. There is a gender dimension to poverty and vulnerability to climate change. Women form the majority of the rural population and female-headed households are particularly vulnerable to poverty. They have limited capacities to adapt arising from social inequalities that manifest themselves in

Poverty remains a daunting challenge in South Africa after sixteen years of democratic rule. A significant number of South Africans still live in appalling conditions on the peripheries of the country’s modern economy.

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differences in property rights, access to information, lack of employment, low literacy levels and unequal access to resources (Mwebaza, 2009).

The health sector has also been noted as highly vulnerable to climate change. Health consequences stem from extreme climatic events, changes in the patterns of infectious diseases, increased food insecurity, displacement of populations and water scarcity, among several factors (Mash, 2008). Assessments of potential effects of climate change on the health sector reveal that South Africa is likely to be exposed to an increase in water and vector borne diseases, particularly malaria and schistosomiasis (bilharzia) as a result of ecosystem changes. Both malaria and schistosomiasis will extend to new areas where the diseases currently do not occur. Climate change will thus be one of the most important and urgent health issues in South Africa over the next ten years with major implications for the health sector.

The health-related vulnerabilities that are predicted for Kwazulu-Natal, for instance, will create an additional burden for a population that is already struggling with poverty, while a decline in agricultural production is likely to lead to a loss of jobs and income for farm workers who have no livelihood alternatives. Climate change is an added stress, which is likely to result in a further widening of the gap between the rich and poor in South Africa and ultimately increase the burden on the state social security resources.

climate change Adaptation Polices and Strategies This study has identified a comprehensive set of policies that provide an enabling environment for climate change adaptation. The National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) provides an overall policy framework for climate change adaptation and mitigation at the national level. The strategy provides broad support to the policies and principles laid out in the Government White Paper on Integrated Pollution and Waste Water Management as well as other national policies including those relating to energy, agriculture and water. While the NCCRS notes the potential impacts of climate change in various sectors it falls short of providing a compelling analysis of the socio-economic implications of climate change. Therefore, its proposed actions do not provide for strategic interventions that would adequately build the resilience of the sectors and the economy against the impacts of climate change. Climate change will have an impact on economic growth thus necessitating the consideration of socio-economic vulnerabilities and

adaptation responses at a policy level (DFID, 2004). The NCCRS to a large extent responds only to the biophysical nature of vulnerability assessment which characterises the nature of the debate and guidelines within the IPCC at the time South Africa was producing this strategy.

One other key policy document that supports national adaptation strategies is the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), produced in 2005. Climate change adaptation is explicitly mentioned under Strategic Objective 3 of the plan and while it recognises the importance of mitigation, it deals mainly with adaptation. Outcome 3.4 of the NBSAP states that: “An integrated national programme facilitates adaptation to the predicted impacts of climate change on biodiversity across the landscape and seascape”. This component of NBSAP responds to the findings of the South Africa Country Studies Programme as well as proposed adaptation interventions contained in the National Climate Change Response Strategy.

In terms of adaptation in the water sector, the National Water Conservation Strategy provides strategies that are sufficiently flexible to accommodate the anticipated effects of climate change. These include allowing for flexibility in water use allocations, water demand management, water conservation measures and contingency planning for extreme events such as droughts and floods, which are all recognized adaptation strategies. The strategies are implemented within a framework of equitable access, beneficial utilisation and environmentally sustainable practices stipulated in the National Water Act and further backed by the National Constitution. However, a closer analysis reveals a number of shortcomings. Firstly, to a large extent South Africa’s current water and policy frameworks have not yet fully and explicitly considered the implications of climate change. Secondly, the need to balance water demand and availability has not been adequately reflected in the strategy. Robust long-term strategies are still required to ensure the future water supply matches demand. Finally, adaptation measures for aquatic resources in the water supply and demand management interventions need to be strengthened.

Agricultural, land and rural development policies also provide a useful entry point for climate change adaptation. These policies include the Integrated Rural Development Programme (IRDP), the Agricultural Policy, Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development, Policy on Agriculture and Sustainable

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Development and the National Agriculture Research and Development Strategy, among others. In its final analysis this study concludes that a comprehensive set of policies are in place in the agricultural sector, however challenges have been noted in their implementation. These sets of policies are geared to address the structural issues underlying poverty and support efforts towards redistributing national economic benefits to previously disadvantaged groups. A number of limitations emerge in South Africa’s rural development strategies and poverty reduction policies. For instance, the South African land reform process is considered to have stalled. Some even argue that it has failed completely, mainly due to the tensions between appropriate development paths at macro-economic level and the needs at a micro-economic level. Suggestions are that the land and agrarian reform programme has failed to escape the trappings of neo-liberalism (Noyoo, nd; Thwala, 2003; Greensberg, 2004; Bond 2005; Mngxitama, 2005). As a result, even though progressive policies are in place which could enhance adaptive capacities at various levels, landlessness continues to compound poverty as it impedes communities, especially in the rural areas, from having a recourse to a source of livelihood through farming and other land-based activities (Noyoo, nd). Landlessness curtails poor people’s ability to use land as a reproductive asset (ibid). In a gender dimension, while a small number of women gained access to land through the Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development (LRAD) programme, for instance, and other land reform programmes between 1994 and 2000, land reform did not take place at a sufficiently large scale to benefit the great majority of poor rural women (Walker, 2000). Poor women could not benefit from agricultural programmes as the policy drive post-1999 prioritised the promotion of a black farming class above other commitments (ibid). The policy environment in South Africa is constantly shifting and adaptation strategies need to take these changes into account while at the same time investing in a political drive to renew commitments towards sustainable development, equity and addressing some of the policy gaps highlighted above.

Linked to the agricultural policies is the drive for economic development and poverty reduction. Macro-economic policies such as the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) plan are said to have effectively denied the poor development opportunities and marginalised them from the economy (Noyoo, nd). One of the fundamental pro-poor responses to climate

change is to ensure that macro-economic policies reduce poor people’s vulnerability (DIFD, 2004). The development path pursued by the government of South Africa has instead undermined the adaptive capacity of the poor by focusing on attracting FDI, higher domestic savings, industrial competitiveness, fiscal policy and moderation of wage increases at the expense of poverty reduction (Noyoo, nd; Frye, nd). The disparity between South Africa’s ‘first economy’ and ‘second economy’ needs to assessed and reviewed in order to effectively address poverty and thereby build resilience against various shocks, climate change included. It is too early to tell whether the new drive towards ‘a developmental state’ after the recent elections in 2009 will address these fundamental shortcomings.

main Institutional Actors and their capacities for AdaptationSouth Africa has a complex environmental governance framework. Government institutions within the three spheres of government, which include national, provincial and local government, are expected to coordinate and cooperate in the implementation of climate change adaptation interventions as well as facilitate implementation and policy reform where necessary. Capacities for climate change adaptation seem to be strong at the level of national government and not so for the provincial and local governments. The main body responsible for climate change policy development is the National Climate Change Committee hosted by the Department of Water and Environmental Affairs. The department plays a critical coordinating role in the implementation of climate change responses at a national level. It hosts the National Climate Change Committee. Other key departments include those for Agriculture and Fisheries, Minerals and Energy, and Science and Technology.

Good governance is critical for climate change adaptation at all levels. However, governance structures in South Africa have recently undergone significant changes, creating new opportunities and challenges (DEAT, 2005). This reform has given local government a central role in integrating programmes to achieve synergistic rural development. Many need assistance and guidance to develop capacity, but their role and responsibilities are clearly established in various policies and legislation (DEAT, 2005; DEAT, 2009). While there is policy and legal provision for integrated development planning in the context of economic development

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planning, it seems from observations made by DEAT (2005) that this does not necessarily translate to the level of cooperation required for effective environmental planning. These observations are highly relevant for levels of preparedness for climate change adaptation.

In addition to complex governance structures a number of challenges face local government agencies that have an important role to play in adaptation at a local level. Some of the issues highlighted in this study that are relevant for climate change adaptation include:

The need to rationalise the requirements of the ●●

different specific environmental management acts (SEMAs), such as the National Environmental Management Protected Areas Act1 and National Environmental Management Biodiversity Act2, which all require that implementing actors (other government departments) should prepare management and implementation plans. These add a layer of complexity that makes environmental management, and by extension climate change adaptation, an overly cumbersome and daunting exercise that could easily provide an excuse for under-capacitated organs of State for not preparing adaptation plans. The lack of financial and human resources have been ●●

noted as key capacity constraints for adaptation at a local level. For instance Mukheibir & Sparks (2006) observe that in terms of implementing the required adaptation measures for water resources, issues related to personnel, capital and running costs present real challenges for adaptive capacity at local and municipal levels. Lack of cooperation and power struggles between ●●

democratically elected structures and traditional structures’ decision-making powers. This conflict and uncertainty between the two leadership structures at municipal level undermines the ability of local governance structures to achieve coordinated decision making and effective leadership. Such conflicts may prove to be detrimental in times of stress when swift action needs to be taken at the local level to guide communities towards ‘new’ adaptation strategies.

Complimentary to the efforts of Government actors is NGOs and the role they play in advancing climate change responses in South Africa. A mix of national,

1 national Environmental management Protected Areas Act 57 of 20032 national Environmental Biodiversity Act 10 of 2004

local and international NGOs are actively involved in the implementation of climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa. These include WWF, Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa, IUCN, EarthLife Africa, Environmental Management Group, Resource Africa and the South African Climate Action Network, and aid agencies such as OXFAM and the Norwegian Church of Aid, among others. The activities carried out by NGOs include climate change research, facilitating the development of community adaptation strategies to climate change, awareness raising, capacity building and advocacy and lobbying. Information on their specific roles in the public domain tends to be scanty. In addition to NGOs South Africa has very strong research capacity and contributes to the generation of knowledge in the climate change arena.

The collective institutional capacity that exists in South Africa needs to be capitalised on to support the development of adaptation interventions at local level. This requires providing support to Community Based Organisations and local government structures that have an incredible responsibility to develop resilient adaptation strategies to climate change. Priority should be given to provinces and local government in areas that are most vulnerable and have little adaptive capacity such as Kwazulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and the Limpopo, all of which are faced with multiple stressors due to climate change and socio-economic challenges.

climate change AwarenessThe level of awareness of climate change, particularly adaptation issues, is varied among the South African public. There is no clear strategy for engaging the public media in climate change issues and therefore guiding national debates or educating the general public. Although the NCCRS undertakes to accelerate the process of relevant education, training, awareness and capacity building it falls short of providing a specific strategy for doing so, particularly a media and communication strategy. The absence of a strategy in this regard limits the effectiveness of awareness raising efforts.

A responsive and relevant media strategy could build on the momentum created by the media, in particular radio. Current affairs programmes on radio constantly tie debates to topical national issues. A number of radio stations have for instance held public debates on climate change and energy. The stories were sparked by the energy crises facing the country and water scarcity,

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and both issues have immediate impacts on the national economy. To improve media coverage on climate change adaptation issues a concerted media and communication strategy needs to be developed to provide a wide array of tools and messages for different target groups.

The role of State and non-state Actors in climate change negotiationsSouth Africa has played a leading role in climate change negotiations, representing not only national interests but the collective interests of developing countries and the Africa Group. The country views this as a strategic role as it stands to gain from the sustainable benefits stemming from the Kyoto protocol. Although adaptation is a critical issue for South Africa, mitigation seems to drive the agenda, mainly due to the vulnerability of the energy sector and the economic exposure that the country faces as a result of its dependence on coal for energy generation. The potential for greater regional cooperation at the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and African Union (AU) level is also recognised with the NCCRS strongly supporting the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) initiative. The country recognises that there are many benefits to be derived from regional cooperation to serve common areas of interest and maximise the utility of available resources. While such developments confirm South Africa as a regional power house it also points to the fact that the role it plays in climate change negotiations is not always in the best interest of the African continent. Its role is to a large extent determined by national economic interest as one of the most powerful emerging economies in the world.

conclusions and recommendationsClimate change adaptation is an urgent issue for South Africa. Although the NCCRS provides valuable insights on vulnerable sectors there are a number of gaps in terms of ensuring adaptation preparedness. For instance, not much is known about the extent of differentiated vulnerability at both national and local levels. The National Climate Change Response needs to be reviewed to take into account the socio-economic implications of climate change impacts, paying particular attention to vulnerable areas and the resources upon which the rural poor base their livelihood strategies.

South Africa does not have a shortage of policies to facilitate its climate change adaptation response. On the contrary, the policy framework is too cumbersome

and may need to be streamlined so as not to overwhelm economic and development planning structures at local government level. Adaptation responses need to be aligned with long-term policies that seek to address the underlying causes of poverty and vulnerability, such as the land reform process and a review of the impacts of the macro-economic policies on the poor.

The National Adaptation Strategy needs to be revised to set the tone for provincial strategies that follow while at the same time the capacity of provincial and local governments need to be built to enable the integration of climate change adaptation into local development plans. Various resource users and interest groups need to participate in the development of climate change adaptation strategies. An approach that seeks to mainstream climate change adaptation into development process will open up the space for engagement and collective solution-seeking as opposed to one that is based purely on climate modelling exercises that tends to alienate ordinary citizens and policy makers. South Africa has a strong culture of civic engagement and activism to build on. The challenge now lies in translating the findings of the South Africa country studies into policy interventions and expanding the analysis to other resources that are critical for the most vulnerable.

Finally, investments need to be made into building policy implementation capacity at local level. Priority needs to be given to provinces and local government in areas that are most vulnerable and have little adaptive capacity such as the Kwazulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and the Limpopo provinces, all of which are faced with multiple stressors due to climate change and socio-economic challenges. Judging by the current mood in the country regarding service delivery, this is a sensitive and urgent issue.

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Introduction CHAPTER 1: Climate change has been recognised as a global threat since 1992, the year when the international community signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Kyoto Protocol followed in 1997. The IPCC Fourth Assessment report drew the world’s attention to the real and imminent impacts of climate change. It highlighted the consequences that rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, changes in sea levels and changes in biodiversity will have on the world’s economy, rural livelihoods and development in general. The climate in Africa is predicted to become more variable and extreme weather events more frequent and severe, with increasing risk to health and human life as a result of global warming. Other impacts include increased risk of drought and flooding in previously unaffected areas (Few et al. 2004, Christensen et al. 2007) and inundation due to sea-level rise in the continent’s coastal areas (Nicholls 2004; McMichael et al. 2006). Africa will face increasing water scarcity and stress with a subsequent risk of water conflicts, as almost all of the 50 river basins in Africa are trans-boundary (Ashton 2002, De Wit and Jacek 2006). These changes will have significant impacts on the economies of the continent, which largely depend on natural resources. It is now accepted that the poor in Africa will be hardest hit by climate change and that the capacity to respond to climate change is lowest in developing and least developed countries (Olmos, 2001).

Many factors contribute to, and compound the impacts of current climate variability in Africa. These include poverty, illiteracy and lack of skills, weak institutions, limited infrastructure, lack of technology and information, low levels of primary education and health care, poor access to resources, low management capabilities and armed conflicts (UNFCCC, 2006). The current overexploitation and unsustainable use of land resources including forests, increases in population, desertification and land degradation pose additional threats to the continent (UNDP 2006). The continent is already faced with problems of food insecurity and yet agricultural production is predicted to decline by over 50% due to unreliable rainfall, increased temperatures and land degradation. The most vulnerable group in the farming sector is noted to be subsistence farmers across most of Sub-Saharan Africa. Vulnerability and

adaptation have therefore become an urgent development issue for many developing countries and a priority for the UNFCCC alongside climate change mitigation measures.

The UNFCCC stipulates that the specific developmental needs and vulnerabilities of developing countries ought to be taken into account as economic development in such countries is essential despite the climate change challenge. In the context of climate change, assessing vulnerability is an important step of determining the extent of the threat. It provides a starting point for the determination of effective means of promoting remedial action to limit climate change impacts, supporting coping strategies and facilitating adaptation (Kelly and Adger, 2000). Adaptation to the impacts of climate change is vital in order to reduce current impacts and to build future resilience. Recognising that climate change is likely to influence other development priorities is a first step towards toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated institutional capacity building in developing countries to respond to climate change (Beg, et.al. 2001). Due to the importance of adaptation in responding to the impacts of climate change the HBF has commissioned a series of case studies in Southern Africa to evaluate the state of preparedness for climate change adaptation. This report focuses on South Africa as a case study and the country study aims to analyse the following:

The impact of and vulnerability to climate change in ●●

South Africa;Climate change adaptation policies, plans and ●●

strategies in the country, their genesis and appropriateness in relation to the current state of knowledge on vulnerability at the national level;The main institutional actors involved in climate ●●

change adaptation policy and responses including assessing their capacity to effectively play their role;The level of public awareness on climate change ●●

and the role played by state and non-state actors in international climate change negotiations.

methodology and conceptual Framework 1.1 used to Assess Vulnerability

This evaluation is based on a desktop review of various reports prepared by the IPCC, National Communication

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reports, Policy documents and strategies, stakeholder opinion pieces, media reports and previous reviews on different aspects of this study. The assessment draws primarily on the National Climate Change Response Strategy, the Initial Communication to the UNFCCC and the National Capacity Self Assessment reports. It includes a review of journal articles and press releases posted on the internet. The study is largely based on an electronic search of material available in the public domain. A complete list of documents reviewed appears on the list of references.

To address the central questions of this study it was important to define a vulnerability framework upon which to base the assessment of South Africa’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change impacts. Vulnerability is a complex concept that has been defined from various perspectives and disciplines over the years. The most common of these is in studies on food security and natural hazards (Blaikie et.al. 1994; Burton et al. 1993; Sen, 1981) and more recently within the IPCC. A number of definitions and determinants of vulnerability were considered based on the wealth of literature on the subject.

The definition of vulnerability within the IPCC has evolved from the 2nd Assessment through to the fourth assessment, while all the time taking on board new insights on the subject from various research efforts. Initially the IPCC in its 2nd Assessment Report defined vulnerability as the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. Vulnerability was defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope, with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is seen to comprise of three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure refers to the presence of a climate hazard while sensitivity is determined by the responsiveness of a system to the climate hazard. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to change in a way that makes it better equipped to manage its exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Adjer and Kelly (2000) elaborate on the IPCC definition as follows;

“The assessment of vulnerability is the end point of a sequence of analyses beginning with projections of future emission trends, moving on to the development of climate scenarios, thence to biophysical impact studies and the identification of adaptation options. At the final stage any consequences define levels of vulnerability”

While the above approach provides a definition of vulnerability that stays clear of socioeconomic and political issues and enables the IPCC to operate within a framework of consensus decision-making, this definition has been found to have limitations by a number of observers (Kelly and Adger, 2000). The main criticism is that it narrowly focuses on bio-physical impacts of climate change while ignoring the broader vulnerability context wherein climate change tends to be an additional stressor. Kelly and Adger (2000) propose an alternative definition that takes into account the capacity to adapt, looking at the existing state of a social grouping’s vulnerability to some particular form of natural hazard. It is the ability or inability of individuals and social groupings to respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods

and wellbeing. Vulnerability therefore becomes a starting point for a policy-relevant framework within which the value of specific interventions aimed at improving the capacity of people to adapt can be assessed (Kelly and Adger 2000). This approach highlights the human dimension of vulnerability to climate change, which the authors term ‘social vulnerability’. It enables the identification of robust, policy relevant recommendations and conclusions and recommendations regarding vulnerability to long-term climate change impacts that are also relevant to immediate needs (Kelly, et.al 1994 and Kelly, 2000).

Issues of poverty, inequality and institutional adaptation form the central characteristics of vulnerability assessments when the second approach above is adopted. Vulnerability analysis must consider the ‘architecture of entitlements’—the social, economic and institutional factors that influence levels of vulnerability within

Vulnerability analysis must consider the ‘architecture of entitlements’— the social, economic and institutional factors that influence levels of vulnerability within a community or nation and promote or constrain options for adaptation.

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a community or nation and promote or constrain options for adaptation (Kelly and Adger, 1999). These are a collection of factors that shape the availability of entitlements, their evolution over time and the broader political economy of the formation and distribution of entitlements. The assessment of social vulnerability is based on understanding the human use of natural resources. It follows Sen’s (1981 and 1990) approach in establishing the extent to which individuals, groups or communities are ‘entitled’ to make use of resources, which in turn determines the ability of that particular population to cope with or adapt to stress. Entitlements extend beyond income and other material measures to encompass rights, ownership and access to resources through formal and informal institutional arrangements (Sen, 1989; Kelly, 1999; DFID, 1999, and Kelly and Adger, 2000). An assessment of the institutional context would cover formal political structures, regulations and informal systems in the form of social and cultural norms.

The above introduces a related concept of differentiated vulnerabilities which is manifested in differences in roles and access to resources that are determined by legal, cultural norms, state institutions, power and access to decision-making powers. This drive towards identifying differentiated impacts has informed efforts to mainstream gender into climate change adaptation as well as provided a framework for addressing social inequity to address the needs of the poor and other marginalised peoples.

In assessing vulnerability and capacity to adapt the concepts of social vulnerability and differentiated impacts, as well as a focus on the institutional aspects, is highly relevant for South Africa. Therefore these concepts have been adopted in this study to highlight climate change vulnerabilities within the socio-economic and political context of South Africa. The IPCC definition may be useful in assessing the vulnerability of natural systems to future climatic risks. But the sole adoption of this approach limits the effectiveness of the national response strategies to climate change adaptation as it will fail to address immediate challenges for developing nations, such as high poverty levels, malaria, HIV/Aids, institutional capacity constraints and other development challenges that weaken resilience and therefore undermine adaptive capacity.

This study also adopts the approach proposed by Kelly and Adger (2000) and Blakie et.al (1994), which in summary implies the following steps in assessing vulnerability and adaptation capacity:

Step 1: Identifying the climate change related risks in South Africa, particularly immediate risks and other environmental and socio-economic stresses

Step 2: Identifying likely sensitivities in terms of limited capacity to respond to stress in the form of climate stress and other environmental and social pressures (paying attention to the socio-economic political context within which the impact process takes place)

Step 3: Assessing the capacity to adapt to current impacts – to what extent do existing policies and national response strategies adequately address vulnerabilities and build resilience?

Step 4: On the basis of the capacity assessment in step 3, assess the capacity to adapt to predicted impacts of climate change

Step 5: Make recommendations on policy and strategy implications

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Background CHAPTER 2: The level of preparedness for adaptation ought to be based on an analysis of current vulnerabilities that South Africa is facing and the extent to which they have been taken into consideration in the response strategies for adaptation. In order to provide a context to this study this chapter provides a profile of South Africa and summarises the potential impacts of, and vulnerability to, climate change in South Africa.

country Profile2.1 Geographic Profile2.1.1.

South Africa is located on the southernmost part of the African continent with a surface area of 129,090km2. It shares borders with Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho and borders the Atlantic Ocean to the west and the southern Indian Ocean to the south and east. South Africa is semi-arid and lies in a drought belt with an average rainfall of 464mm and fluctuating rainfall patterns. Twenty-one percent of the

country receives less than 200mm of rain per year, 48% between 200 and 600mm, and only 30% receives more than 600mm (DEAT, 2000). Rainfall is unreliable and unpredictable with a low rainfall to runoff ratio.

The natural systems of the country have been classified in terms of the biome concept, based on dominant plant life forms correlated with climatic variations. Biomes found in South Africa are Desert, Fynbos, Succulent Karoo, Nama Karoo, Grassland, Savannah, Albany Thicket, Forest and Wetland vegetation (DEAT, 2005).

Socio-economic Profile2.1.2.

In 2009 the total population of the country was estimated at 49,32 million, with a female population of 52%. Gauteng province carries the largest proportion of the population, 21.4%, followed by Kwazulu-Natal with 21.2% while the Northern Cape province remains the least densely populated with only 2.3% of the total. A

third of the population (31.4%) is under the age of 15 and 7.5% is 60 years and older. Twenty-three percent of the population under 15 lives in Kwazulu-Natal and 17% of under-15s reside in the Gauteng province.

By 2001 about 50% of the population resided in urban areas where the financial, legal, communication, energy, transport sectors and modern infrastructure exist. However, access is not guaranteed due to poverty-related challenges. The rural areas where the rest of the population resides has limited infrastructure and development. In terms of its socio-economic profile South Africa has a stable and growing economy with a GDP of R888 billion in 2000 and a nominal GDP estimated at R2.4 trillion for the year 2009. The national economy was built on natural resources with mining and agriculture being the main contributors. Today the financial sector is the largest industry in the country followed by manufacturing and tourism. Tourism and the service industries have been recognised as key drivers for

job creation and economic empowerment. Although South Africa enjoys steady economic

growth, the country has been noted to have a dual economy with sharp contrasts depicting characteristics of a first world economy on the one hand, and a third world economy on the other. Income inequality is high, with the Gini co-efficient index for South Africa reported as the fourth worst of 105 countries in 1993 (World Bank, 2000). More than 80% of the population lives on an income of less than 67% of the national average per capita (DEAT, 2005). The country faces major challenges with regards to poverty and unemployment. Unemployment is estimated to be 30.5% of the population and was estimated to be growing at 2.2% per annum in 2000.

Poverty is widespread in South Africa. More than half of the population is classified as poor and 34% of the population lives below the poverty datum line. The high levels of poverty and underdevelopment are due

Although South Africa enjoys steady economic growth, the country has a dual economy with sharp contrasts depicting characteristics of a first world economy on one hand, and a third world economy on the other.

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to South Africa’s history of colonialism and apartheid. Under the racist policies of the apartheid system, the majority of the non-white population was systematically dispossessed of their land and denied access to resources and adequate services, including health care, housing and education. Following the first democratic elections in 1994 the country went through a wave of policy and legislation reform to redress the wrongs of the past and ensure equitable access to resources. With a progressive National Constitution, Growth Employment and Redistribution Policy (GEAR) and the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) the Government of National Unity and then later the ANC Government has pursued a rights-based approach to development with the intention of achieving justice, equity and sustainability.

The principles of justice, equity and sustainability cut across all national policies and legislation overseen by the three spheres of government: national, provincial and local. Each is tasked with addressing the legacy of the past and ensuring a sustainable future (DEAT, 2005). Nine provinces exist and these include Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, Kwazulu-Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, Northern Cape and Western Cape each with its own provincial legislature.

Land use2.1.3.

Over ten percent (13.7%) of South Africa’s land is potentially arable, 68.6% is grazing land, 9.6% is protected for nature conservation, 1.2% is under forestry and 6.9% is used for other purposes (Mukheibir & Sparks, 2003). Of the arable portion, 2.5 million hectares is in the former homelands and is primarily used for subsistence/ small-scale farming, while 14.2 million is used for commercial agriculture.

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Climate Change Impacts CHAPTER 3: and VulnerabilityClimate change projections indicate an increase in temperatures in Africa with the greatest warming accruing in the northern region of the sub-continent. In South Africa potential changes over the next 50 years show a warming of between 1°C and 3°C; a potential reduction of approximately 5 to 10% of current rainfall; rising daily maximum temperatures in summer and autumn in the western half of the country; increased incidents of flood and drought; and, enhanced temperature inversions which are likely to exacerbate air pollution problems (Kiker, 2000).

These changes are likely to have significant impacts on various sectors of the South African economy. The South African Country Studies Programme identified the health sector, agriculture –(particularly maize production), plant and animal biodiversity, water resources and rangelands as the most vulnerable sectors. These were thus highlighted as priority areas to be targeted through climate change adaptation initiatives. The underlying causes and nature of vulnerability in these sectors and other areas are discussed in more detail below.

Agriculture, rangelands and Food Security3.1 Rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and water scarcity will collectively impact on the agricultural systems in South Africa. Significant impacts include reduction in the amount of land suitable for both arable and pastoral agriculture, the reduction in the length of the growing season and a decrease in yields, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas. Climate change is likely to further reduce the contribution of agriculture to the GDP, which has been declining over the years. In 1998 agriculture and forestry contributed 4.0% to GDP, which is significantly lower than in the 9.1% recorded in1965 (NDA, 2000).

Reduced rainfall will negatively impact on both large-scale agriculture, which relies on irrigation, small-scale farmers, and the rural poor who practice rain-fed agriculture. These impacts have far-reaching consequences for national food security and the national economy. Projected impacts as a result of future water shortages are expected to affect the yield production of various crops and the productivity of rangelands by 2050. The South Africa country studies focused on assessing

the vulnerability of maize as it accounted for 71% of the grains produced in the country in 1998 and covers over 58% of the national cropping area. The studies concluded that maize production will decrease by approximately 10-20% (DEAT, 2000). Decreases in yield will be most serious in the more marginal areas, such as the western part of the country which may become unsuitable for maize production under the current management strategies (Kiker, 2000). However, the higher production levels predicted in the east are likely to offset decreases in marginal western regions (ibid). An increase in pests and diseases will also have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector.

The implications for food security are significant as food production makes up approximately 92% of the agricultural yield by volume (NDA, 2002; Mukheibir & Sparks, 2003). This point is accentuated when the effects of climate change impacts are considered for the small-scale farmers who already constitute a vulnerable group in the farming sector. South Africa has roughly 4.8 million small-scale farmers operating on an area of about 17 million hectares (Gbetibuo & Ringler, 2009; Lewis, et.al. 2009). The small-scale farming communities in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape provinces are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which directly exposes them to climate change risks.

A number of factors undermine the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers. These are attributed to social, governance and economic issues and include land tenure and user rights, gender, local governance, poverty and in some cases culture and indigenous knowledge (Lewis. 2009). In terms of land tenure Lewis et.al (2009) point out that the majority of small-scale farming communities in South Africa live under communal tenure systems where land rights are not secure. Land that has not been farmed for a consecutive three-year period may be reallocated to other households. Therefore households that may find themselves in a situation where they cannot farm their land during bad climate periods risk losing it. Opportunities for future allocation may be lost as scarcity of good agricultural land is likely to increase while access to land remains limited. Such losses will further weaken the asset base of these already vulnerable households and thereby undermine their resilience and

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capacity to adapt to climate change. In order to enhance adaptation capacity in this regard bold interventions need to be taken to strengthen tenure security of small-scale farmers and other vulnerable groups such as the poor and women (Lewis, et.al. 2009). As a result of decades of dispossession and racist land laws, land distribution in South Africa is among the most highly skewed in the world, with large capital-intensive farms dominating much of the rural areas. The result is that only 28% of South Africa’s rural population (a significant proportion of whom are farm workers and their dependants) live on 88% of the agricultural land while the remaining 12% of agricultural land supports 72% of the rural population in the overcrowded former homelands which lack the infrastructure for successful agriculture (Department of Agriculture, 2001).

The livestock sector will also be affected by climate change due to projected impacts on the rangelands. The climate scenarios yielded by the Genesis, CSM and HsdCM2 models suggest a general aridification of rangelands over most of Southern Africa, particularly for marginal rangelands. In South Africa predicted scenarios give increased mean annual temperatures of 2.5 – 3.5 degrees Celsius by mid-century, reduced rainfall and altered rainfall seasonality in the arid Karoo fringe. Lower rainfall and higher temperatures will affect fodder production and impact on the marginal costs of ranching. Rangelands will be lost due to tree encroachment resulting from a decrease in grasslands due to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations and the increase in temperature.

Over the Savannah regions in the northeast of the country forage production may decrease by one fifth, which would impact on the cattle ranching industry, reducing the national herd by 10%. Beef production would however not be affected to the same degree as greater numbers of beef herd are fattened in feedlots before being slaughtered. Murombedzi (2008) points out that increases in droughts are likely to impact on the poor and small-scale farmers as livestock tends to die during drought periods from lack of water and nutrition. Such losses impact on the food security of the poor as they lose a valuable source of capital, food and draft power, further reducing their capacity to cope with future shocks. Households who own livestock have however been found to be less vulnerable than those that depend solely on rain-fed agriculture (Shewmake, 2008).

Climate change may also affect the frequency and spatial spread of livestock disease outbreaks, such as foot

and mouth disease. A 2°C increase in temperature would increase the average savannah fire intensities by 7%. With the predicted increase in grass fuel load of 15%, fire intensities are expected to increase by about 20%.

Water resources3.2 Although climate change is expected to affect many sectors water is considered to be the most sensitive to climate change impacts. Many developing countries are already faced with water scarcity mainly as a result of increase in demand due to economic and population growth. Generally, Africa’s water resources are decreasing over time as a result of persistent droughts and unsustainable practices. Decreasing water levels are expected to affect water quality, exacerbate water-borne diseases and reduce available hydropower. Climate change impacts will thus present additional stress to an already stretched water resource base.

Water shortage and stress is projected in most African countries by 2050 with a significant number of African countries facing scarcity and stress by 2025 (see Figure 1 below). South Africa is one of the countries that will be faced with water scarcity by 2025.

Climate and limited endowment of natural water resources combined results in water scarcity in South Africa. South Africa is located in a predominantly semi-arid part of the world, with much of the country experiencing frequent droughts and floods. Rainfall in South Africa is highly variable in spatial distribution and unpredictable. As a result South Africa’s water resources

 

Figure 1: Africa freshwater stress and scarcity in 2025

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are in global terms scarce and extremely limited. Most of the time stream flow is low due to the seasonality of rainfall and the resultant low and highly variable runoff. Ground water resources are also limited; only about 20% of the groundwater occurs in major aquifer systems that could be utilised on a large scale.

The location of major cities and industrial areas in areas that are remote from the main watercourses adds to vulnerability (Turton, 2008; DWAF, 2004). These settlement patterns are dictated either by the occurrence of mineral riches or influenced by the political dispensation of the past. As a result, in several river basins within the country the requirement for water already far exceeds its natural availability. To respond to geographic water availability shortages South Africa provides bulk water supplies to major cities and major industries through a system of large water storage and inter-basin water transfer schemes. These schemes are highly costly and have been implemented over a long period of time.

In considering vulnerabilities to climate change in the water sector it is important to note that four of South Africa’s main rivers are shared with other countries. These are the Limpopo, Inkomati, Pongola (Maputo) and Orange/Senqu Rivers, which together drain about 60% of the country’s surface area and contribute 40% of its total surface run-off (DWAF, 2004). These rivers support approximately 70% of South Africa’s GDP and a similar percentage of the population is supplied from these rivers (ibid). This makes joint river basin management and the consideration of climate change impacts at a river basin level of paramount importance to South Africa. Southern Africa’s shared river basins have been noted to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and variability. For instance the annual flows of the Zambezi River have been noted to be declining while droughts and floods are increasing in severity and frequency. The recent floods experienced between 1999-2002 are inconsistent with the long-term climate of the region indicating that Southern Africa is facing more climate variability as well as demonstrating the potential impacts of these in the near future (Bergkamp, et.al 2003). Between 1999 and 2002 the region was hit with a series of intense rainfall episodes, including tropical cycle Connie that produced the worst floods in 50 years. Two weeks later tropical cyclone Eline further inundated the region causing extensive flooding in the Limpopo River Basin. Such an event is supposed to happen only once in every thousand years (Bergkamp et.al, 2003). The flood caused significant

damage to infrastructure, from which the countries affected are still recovering (Murombedzi, 2008).

Climate change is expected to alter the present hydrological resources in South Africa and the rest of the Southern African region and add pressure on the adaptability of future water resources (Schulze & Perks, 2000; Mukheibir & Sparks, 2003). Predicted changes in seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall will have an impact on storage of water in the soil, runoff processes and groundwater recharge, while increases in temperature will impact on evaporation rates (DEAT, 2000). Areas that are likely to be impacted by the changes in rainfall include the arid and semi-arid regions, which cover almost half of South Africa. These areas are highly sensitive to changes in rainfall because only a small fraction of rainfall is converted to runoff and groundwater recharge is minimal. Lack of surface water will be worsened by a reduction in rainfall and high evaporation due to predicted increases in temperatures (Initial Communication, 2000). In 2004 for instance, 11 out of the 19 Water Management Areas in the country were already facing water deficits (Mukheibir & Sparks, 2006). Many local municipalities in the Northern Cape were transporting water to communities whose groundwater resources had been reduced by droughts. Such situations are likely to increase in future with the most severe impacts occurring in the western part of the country where small towns and subsistence farmers are most vulnerable (Hewistson, et.al 2005).

Acute water shortage looming over South Africa has implications for social and economic development. Predicted shortages of water will have devastating effects on the agricultural sector, particularly irrigation, which is a traditional adaptation strategy in semi-arid areas. The agriculture sector is by far the largest water user, taking up 62% of the water allocation for irrigation. Domestic and urban use accounts for 8%, while 3% is used by the forestry sector (DEAT, 2004). This has implications for national food security because over 90% of the agriculture is for food production. Apart from negative impacts on the agricultural sector other economic sectors will be affected as well. Water is considered a limiting resource for development in the region. Changes in the availability of water due to climate change is therefore likely to have major implications for the economy of the region (Ashton & Turton, 2005; 2008a; Turton, 2008a; Turton & Ashton, 2008).

Turton (2008b) argues that water is not only a development concern for South Africa but also that

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South Africa has already allocated 98% of the national water resource at a high assurance of supply in its 2004 National Water Resource strategy. In addition to the over-commitment of water resources, South Africa has lost its dilution capacity due to high levels of contamination from the mining industry and effluent from major cities (ibid). The country is thus faced with both a water shortage and a water quality problem that is likely to get worse due to climate change impacts. Contamination of water resources through industrialisation, urbanisation and a rapid population growth also has an adverse effect on water resources (DEAT, 2000).

DEAT (2004) notes that in situations of water scarcity the poor are generally the ones most affected. Even in situations of water abundance poor people still experience scarcity through lack of infrastructure to bring water to where it is needed. Water shortages, frequent floods and droughts will impact on the poor and 34% of the country’s population falls in this category. South Africa has taken giant steps post-1994 to ensure access to safe drinking water and sanitation. According the South Africa MDG Report (2005) the proportion of the total population with access to safe drinking water has risen from 60.1% in 1994 to 78.7% in 2004. The proportion of the rural population with access to an improved water source has increased from 44.4% in 1994 to 63.7% (see table 1 below). A large proportion of those without access to clean water live in the historically disadvantaged rural areas (Mukheibir & Sparks, 2003). Access to clean water is an important resource for reducing poverty and disease and improving the lives of poor South Africans (ibid). Also, improving access to water is critical for enhancing food security at a household level.

Table 1: Access to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation

inDiCATor 1994 2004 mDG 2015 TArGET

Proportion of total population Indicators with access to an improved water source (%)

60.1 78.7 80.1

Proportion of rural population Indicators with access to an improved water source (%)

44.4 63.6 72.2

inDiCATor 1994 2004 mDG 2015 TArGET

Proportion of urban population Indicators with access to an improved water source

70.3 87.7 85.2

Proportion of total population Indicators with access to basic sanitation

48.7 63.7 74.4

Proportion of rural population Indicators with access to basic sanitation

32.5 44.5 66.3

Proportion of urban population Indicators with access to basic sanitation

58.8 76.9 79.4

Water shortages in the future are likely to reverse the strides that South Africa made in the post-independence decade. Climate change will negatively impact on the government’s efforts towards achieving the goals of equity and growth, which are the two main objectives of the Growth, Employment and Redistribution plan (GEAR) and the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). Provision of water is one of the key areas that have been earmarked to address the needs of the poor. It is thus central to the national strategy for poverty alleviation.

Future water shortages (climate and non-climate related) are likely to contribute to high levels of social unrest in the country, particularly in townships and poor municipalities as is evidenced by a recent increase in service delivery protests. A review of the National Water Resource Strategy is required so as to set new national priorities for water resources management, explicitly factoring in the various scenarios of climate change impacts (Mkheibir & Sparks, 2006; Turton, 2008).

While it is clear from the above that South Africa will be faced with issues of water scarcity and stress in the future due to increased aridity, less rainfall and high evapo-transpiration rates, some experts have noted that lack of endowment in natural water is not an adequate measure of vulnerability but instead that an absence of water development is a bigger problem. It will be shown in the next section that South Africa has demonstrated adaptive capacity in this regard by investing in inter-basin transfers. A question that arises, however, is the sustainability of these measures considering that the entire region is likely to face water

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stress, thereby reducing the availability of water despite the level of infrastructure development. Other questions relate to access and equity. While the South African National Water Strategy is built on principles of equity it is imperative to look into the extent to which the application of these principles is feasible on the ground. To what extent has the water reform strategy been able to facilitate access to water and sanitation for the poor in South Africa? What measures have been put in place to respond to the needs of most affected provinces in terms of water development and institutional capacity? These questions are explored further in Chapter 4.

Biodiversity and Ecosystems3.3 On a global scale, climate change could result in the extinction of ecosystems and the plants and animals that reside in them. Many African communities are directly dependent on these ecosystems for their food, energy, water and medicinal requirements (Murombedzi, 2008). Communities harvest natural resources for medicinal use, for food, shelter, fuel and craft production. Loss of such ecosystems will have significant consequences for local

communities as well as national economies. Biodiversity is important for South Africa because of its role in maintaining healthy ecosystems, its economic value for tourism and its supporting role in livelihoods. Tourism, for instance, has overtaken agriculture in its contribution to the GDP. In 1996 it contributed 10% to GDP and has been recognised as one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy (DEAT, 2005). Informal resource use is also an essential livelihood strategy for many poor rural communities particularly in the forests and savannah biomes (ibid). The sensitivity of plant biodiversity to climate change impacts has implications for local economies and subsistence needs. Natural resource use accounts for 31%, 21.2% and 59.1% of the gross geographic products for agriculture in the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal and the Limpopo provinces respectively (DEAT, 2005), while woodland products and plantations are important to poor households (Shackleton, et.al. 2008; Murombedzi, 2008).

Close to 70% of the land surface in South Africa consists of natural and semi-arid ecosystems that provide habitats for large herbivore species and a diverse range of plant species. The coastal zone also hosts a rich marine life. South Africa is considered one of the most biologically diverse countries in the world, largely due to the species diversity and endemism of the vegetation. The country occupies only 2% of the world’s surface area but hosts an extremely valuable resource base; it is home to nearly 10% of the world’s plants and 7% of the world’s reptiles, birds and mammals, and approximately 24 000 plant species. Levels of endemism are high, especially for plants. Plant genetic diversity is also unusually high, contributing to an immense potential for bio-trade (developing new medicines, crops, cosmetics, ornamental plants and other useful products).

South Africa’s faunal diversity is also high relative to the land surface area. It has an estimated 5.8% of the world’s mammal species (close to 300 species), 8% of bird species (more than 800 species recorded), 4.6% of reptile species (288 species) and 5.5% of the world’s known insect species (50 000 species have been recorded

in South Africa, but an estimated further 50 000 have not yet been described) (DEAT, 2005). In terms of the number of endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians, South Africa ranks as the fifth richest country in Africa and the 24th richest in the world. Marine biodiversity is also high, with over 10 000 species of marine plants and animals in South African waters, which is almost 15% of global species. Twelve percent of the marine species are endemic to South Africa.

Climate change is a real threat to this resource base, which is not only important for the national economy but also has significant global value. The predicted warming of the bio-climate and aridification are expected to shrink the countries biome by 38 -55% of their current coverage (Kiker, 2000). The largest losses are predicted to occur in the western, central and northern parts of the country. These include a complete loss or displacement of the existing succulent Karoo biome along the west coast and the interior coastal plain, an

Communities harvest natural resources for medicinal use, for food, shelter, fuel and craft production. Loss of such ecosystems will have significant consequences for local communities as well as national economies.

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intensive eastward shift of the Nama Karoo biome across the interior plateau and contraction of the savannah biome on the northern borders of the country and its expansion into the grassland biome (ibid). The species rich fynbos may lose some of its species while the entire grasslands biome will be susceptible to a potentially large number of invading savannah tree species. These changes will also bring about a shift in species range, with the majority of species showing reduced range sizes. The affected areas are currently globally recognised biodiversity hotspots, including the Cape Floristic Kingdom Succulent Karoo (shared with Namibia and is one of only two arid biodiversity hotspots in the world) and the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany centre of endemism (shared with Mozambique and Swaziland) (DEAT, 2005).

In terms of impacts on wildlife (fauna species) distribution, potential changes include a concentration of animal species in the eastern escarpment regions with significant losses in drier zones within the country. A study on 179 of South Africa’s wildlife species indicates that levels of climate change induced impacts will range from minimal (i.e. 6 of the species showed no change in range size) to severe (4 species were predicted to go extinct). A total of 175 of the species expanded their range while 80% displayed range contractions (Kiker, 2000). Species-rich areas are expected to contract from existing patterns and concentrate around the eastern highlands as a result of climate change. Species losses are predicted to be highest in the west. Potential impacts on wildlife and protected areas are severe with a strong correlation between reduction in range size and species extinction. A case study of the Kruger National Park revealed that 66% of all species found in the park would be lost with more than 50% probability of occurrence. This included 97% of the bird species and 52% of the red data listed and vulnerable species.

As species migrate to new areas, conflicts over land use between conservation and other uses are likely to increase (Kieker, 2000). This could fuel conflict between conservation and the land transformation agenda unless conservation can be seen to be relevant to this agenda, i.e. through programmes such as community-based natural resources management or co-management of protected areas between communities, the state and the private sector.

Marine biodiversity will also be affected by climate change. A rise in sea levels is expected to result in the migration of species residing along the coast while

changes in sea temperature may increase the intensity and frequency of upwelling events. This would cause alterations of near shore currents, which can be expected to have the most significant impact on the rocky shore ecosystems in South Africa. Studies have also indicated that there would be an increase in the occurrence of the harmful ‘red tide’ events on the west coast, which cause mass mortalities of fish, shell fish, marine mammals, sea birds and other animals. They also may pose health hazards to people who eat contaminated seafood. A change in volume or passage of the Agulhas current is likely to have enormous implications for marine biota living along the whole of the east, west and south coast of South Africa, and also for those living further afield.

Poverty and Socio-Economic Vulnerability3.4 Current climate shocks and stresses already have a devastating impact on the vulnerability of the poor (DFID, 2004). Frequency and intensity of weather-related extremes, as well as gradual changes in average temperatures associated with climate change, will worsen the impacts since poor people have a limited number of coping strategies upon which to draw in times of stress. Southern Africa is already facing a crisis of endemic and pervasive underdevelopment (Murombedzi, 2008). The poor face the greatest threats of climate change because of where they live and their livelihood strategies. Poverty undermines the resilience of households to self-organise and adapt in response to climate change impacts. The lack of alternatives weakens the resilience of the poor. They furthermore have limited capacity and opportunities to learn about the impacts of climate change and appropriate adaptation strategies as a result of limited access to information and technology. The poor in South Africa are faced with similar exposures to climate change impacts and therefore a focus on the question of poverty in the country further strengthens the assessment of vulnerability by improving our understanding on social groups faced with the greatest exposure and risks.

Poverty remains a daunting challenge in South Africa, sixteen years after the first democratic elections. A significant number of South Africans still exist in appalling conditions on the peripheries of the country’s modern economy (Desai, 2005; Bond, 2006; Noyoo, nd; Fryer, nd). Marginalised and vulnerable, many communities continue to face the difficult task of sustaining their livelihoods in a country that is perceived

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by many on the African continent, as a “First World” country (Noyoo, nd). It is estimated that over 78% of South Africans are poor and that the majority (70%) of the poor live in rural areas (ISRDS, 2000). The natural resource base to which the poor in South Africa have access cannot provide rural people with a means of subsistence and is facing significant threats from climate change. More than 85% of the countryside is settled by commercial farmers and population pressure in former homelands has resulted in a depletion of the natural resource base. These former homelands tend to be isolated from economic opportunities, incurring high transport costs to jobs and in pursuit of other livelihood activities to meet basic needs

The country’s Gini coefficient index, which measures inequality, is the fourth worst in the world (World Bank, 2000). An estimated 62.2% of the rural households in the Kwazulu-Natal province are living below the poverty datum line (ibid). Poverty is also high in former white areas, mainly on farms where farm labourers in particular are faced with a lack of economic opportunities and access to basic services (IRDSP, 2000). These conditions

provide a context for the risks and exposure of the poor to the impacts of climate change variability and impacts. The health related vulnerabilities that are predicted for Kwazulu-Natal (see next section), for instance, will create an additional burden for a population that is already struggling with poverty. A decline in agricultural production is likely to lead to a loss of jobs and income for farm workers who have no livelihood alternatives. The impacts of climate change will result in a further widening of the gap between the rich and poor in South Africa, and ultimately increase the burden on the national social security resources.

There is a gender dimension to poverty and vulnerability to climate change. Women form the majority of the rural population and female-headed households are particularly vulnerable to poverty (IDRSP, 2000). They have limited capacities to adapt, arising from social inequalities that manifest themselves in differences in property rights, poor access

to information, lack of employment, low literacy levels and unequal access to resources (Mwebaza, 2009). These problems are more acute in many small-scale farming communities where migrant labour patterns have resulted in a wide spread of absentee male heads of households, who hold decision-making powers (Lewis, 2009). This means that in the absence of male heads of households, women are not in a position to make timely decisions to re-organise their livelihood activities and adapt farming systems in response to climate change and increases in climate variability (ibid). Households’ capacities to adapt will therefore be undermined if social inequalities of women are not considered in vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

Health3.5 Climate change related health consequences stem from extreme climatic events, changes in the patterns of infectious diseases, increased food security, displacement of populations and water scarcity, among other factors (Mash, 2008). Climate change will arguably be one of the most important and urgent health issues in South

Africa over the next ten years, and although it is not exclusively a health issue it has major implications for the health sector (ibid). Assessments of potential effects of climate change on the health sector reveal that South Africa is likely to be exposed to an increase in water and vector borne diseases, particularly malaria and schistosomiasis (bilharzia), as a result of ecosystem changes (Kiker, 2000).

Malaria is the eleventh biggest cause of death globally, claiming an estimated 856 000 lives each year. Ninety-five percent of these deaths are believed to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa; the greatest toll being amongst children below the age of five. In the absence of corrective health measures the predicted climate change impacts may result in the extension of malaria-prone areas due to an increase in the length of summer and the alteration and expansion of the malaria habitat. Areas in Kwazulu-Natal (with one of the highest populations in the country) and eastern Swaziland would experience a longer transition period

Malaria is the eleventh biggest cause of death globally, claiming an estimated 856 000 lives each year. Ninety-five percent of these deaths are believed to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa; primarily amongst children below the age of five.

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and the number of people exposed to malaria is thus likely to increase. Projections indicate that 7.8 million people will be at risk, and 5.2 million of these do not reside in present day malaria risk areas.

Significant resources are currently being invested in the implementation of control measures to limit the rates of malaria infection. However, the significant increase in malaria risk areas, combined with increased resistance to pesticides, may undermine future efforts to curb malaria infections. In the last decade an increase in malaria has been recorded as a result of failing drugs, HIV/Aids infections and insecticides resistance.

Another health challenge likely to be presented by climate change is an increase in cases of schistosomiasis in South Africa. Schistosomiasis is second to malaria in contributing to the overall chronic disease burden in the developing world. It is estimated that 120 million people carry symptoms and that 20 million people harbour severe schistosome infections (Kiker, 2000). In 1996 between three and four million people were infected with one or more species of schistosome in South Africa. As temperatures increase the areas suitable for the transmission of schistosome are likely to expand, in turn exposing a greater population to the risks of infection. Furthermore, due to an increase in flood occurrences, urinary schistosomiasis could expand to areas that are currently free of the disease, particularly in the western regions of the country. Prevalence ranges were revealed to be between 10% in some areas and 80% in the lowveld and east coast. The disease is endemic in Kwazulu-Natal and has been found along the coastal belt of the province, in the eastern belt of the Eastern Cape province, in parts of Mpumalanga and the North and North West provinces.

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Climate Change Adaptation CHAPTER 4: Policy Analysis

overview of climate change Adaptation4.1 A number of adaptation strategies have been proposed in the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) to address the vulnerabilities in the agriculture, health, biodiversity and water sectors. However, the success of these strategies depends on an enabling policy environment. A lack of appropriate policies and legislative framework may present barriers to the implementation of adaptation strategies. This chapter explores existing adaptation strategies and analyses the policies that are relevant for climate change adaptation in South Africa. It looks at the extent to which existing policies will facilitate adaptation to climate change and address the vulnerabilities highlighted in Chapter 3. The review begins by providing a summary of adaptation strategies proposed in the NCCRS, followed by an evaluation of various policies and related strategies. It then assesses the extent to which they facilitate the implementation of the National Adaptation Strategy. The policies are also evaluated against their effectiveness in building adaptive capacity using emerging knowledge on adaptation on more recent guidelines from the UNFCCC, other development partners and lessons learned on adaptation in various fields.

Climate change is a long-term process that will affect all countries for decades to come. It will be an ever-present issue for national development planners, and ideally should become a regular consideration in planning cycles and policy development processes (UNFCCC, 2002). Mainstreaming climate change responses into policy and development frameworks is an obligation for parties under UNFCCC convention. Article 4.1(f ) stipulates that:

“All parties shall take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for example impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimising adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, of projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change.”

To enable workable and effective adaptation measures, ministries and governments, as well as institutions and NGOs, must consider integrating climate change in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision-making (UNFCCC, 2006).

Adapting to climate change will involve adjustments and changes at every level of society, from community to national and international. At the national level governments need to implement strategies that enhance the resilience of national economies to the impacts of climate change. Local communities on the other hand must build their resilience, including adopting appropriate technologies while making the most of traditional knowledge, and diversifying their livelihoods to cope with current and future climate stress. The local coping strategies need to be employed in synergy with government and local interventions. The choice of adaptation interventions depends on a country’s circumstances (Burton, et.al, 2001; Kelly and Adger, 2000).

Climate change has the potential to undermine sustainable development, increase poverty, and delay or prevent the realisation of the Millennium Development Goals. An effective way to address the impacts of climate change is by integrating adaptation measures into sustainable development strategies so as to reduce the pressure on natural resources, improve environmental risk management, and increase the social well-being of the poor. It is recognised that climate change impacts do not happen in isolation. Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another. Sectors can be affected directly and/or indirectly by climate change. Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the effects of climate change in another sector. At the same time, adaptation of one group or a single sector may weaken the resilience of another, thus necessitating an integrated approach to adaptation. However in many developing countries there are difficulties in integrating adaptation concerns into national policy due to low staff capacity for planning, monitoring and evaluation; poor data on adaptation options and lack of mechanisms for information sharing and management across sectors; and limited awareness of adaptation among stakeholders and the population (UNFCCC, 2006).

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South Africa’s policy and legislation for sustainable development, environmental management and governance of natural resources has undergone profound changes in the past decade. This policy development process is ongoing and is critical for supporting climate change adaptation at various levels. South Africa’s Constitution (Act 108 of 1996) creates the overall framework for environmental governance in South Africa. It establishes the right to an environment that is not harmful to health and well-being, balances the right to have the environment protected with rights to valid social and economic development, allocates environmental functions to a wide range of government agencies in all spheres and requires cooperation between government agencies and spheres of government. The constitution provides the fundamental basis of the ‘architecture of entitlements’ upon which the country can promote options for adaptation.

The implementation of adaptation strategies in South Africa also takes place in the context of specific pieces of legislation. This review will not include a comprehensive analysis of the legislation, but a brief description of the legislation is provided below.

national Legislative Framework4.2 The wide range of legislation dealing with various aspects of environment, biodiversity and natural resources management has resulted in a high number of state departments and agencies being responsible for climate change related policies (see next chapter for the institutional Framework). Below is a summary of relevant legislation.

The national Environmental management Act, 107 of 1998 (“nEmA”) is the over-arching environmental legislation in South Africa. It is the framework legislation for environmental management and contains certain fundamental principles that organs of state must adhere to. Section 2(4)n of the Act states, inter alia, that negative impacts on the environment and on people’s environmental rights be anticipated and prevented, and that where they cannot be altogether prevented, are minimised and remedied and that global and international responsibilities relating to the environment must be discharged in the national interest. Several specific environmental management Acts (SEmAs) have been promulgated since 1998 and deal with discrete areas such as biodiversity, protected areas, waste management and integrated coastal management.

Although the issue of climate change is not directly addressed in nEmA, the injunction upon all organs of state whose actions may significantly affect the environment to apply the principles contained in section 2 of nEmA, applies to the actions to be taken by national and provincial government in relation to the preparation of policy and response strategies to deal with the anticipated effects of climate change. In terms of section 11(2) of nEmA, certain national government departments that exercise functions involving the management of the environment, must prepare Environmental management Plans (EmPs).

The national Water Act, 36 of 1998 together with the Water Services Act, 108 of 1997 provides South Africa with a holistic and cohesive body of statutory water law. The national Water Act does not directly address a response strategy to water shortages that may occur as a result of climate change. It does, however, create a broad framework that creates flexibility for dealing with anticipated consequences of the phenomenon.

It is expected that the effects of climate change will lead to increased occurrences of veld fires. The national Veld and Forest Fire Act 101 of 1998 (the “nVFFA”) aims to achieve effective veldfire management through, in the first place, prevention and secondly, combating of veld, forest and mountain fires when these occur. It therefore contains both preventative and fire-fighting provisions. It defines the expression “veldfire” to include forest and mountain fires.

The Disaster management Act, 57 of 2002 requires an integrated and co-ordinated policy that focuses on preparedness for disasters, rapid and effective response to disasters and post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation. When a significant event or disaster occurs, such as with possible climate change related floods, or is threatening to occur, it is imperative that there should be no confusion as to roles, responsibilities, funding arrangements and the procedures to be followed.

The national Environmental management: Biodiversity Act, 2004 provides a legislative backing for the management and conservation of South Africa’s biodiversity within the framework of the national Environmental Act of 1998; the protection of ecosystems and species that warrant national protection; the sustainable use of indigenous biological resources; the fair and equitable distribution of benefits arising from bio-prospecting involving indigenous biological resources; the establishment and functions of the South African national Biodiversity Institute. Section 5 of this act gives effect to ratified international agreements affecting biodiversity for which South Africa is a party. It therefore by extension legislates for potential interventions that may be identified under the UnFccc for the protection of biodiversity which may include adaptation-related responses.

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Key Policies and related Strategies4.3 A number of policies and strategies support the priority areas identified in the NCCRS and these areas include biodiversity (including forestry), agriculture, water and the health sector. The review also touches on the overall strategy for sustainable development and frameworks for poverty reduction, although these two areas are not adequately covered in the NCCRS. The policies presented below either provide for adaptive management of resources and natural systems in response to climate change variability or provide options for communities and socio-economic systems to respond sustainably to climate-induced changes

The NCCRS provides an overall policy framework for climate change adaptation and mitigation at a national level. The strategy was developed in 2004 as a result of a need identified by stakeholders through various processes in the early 1990’s during South Africa’s preparations for the ratification of the UNFCCC.

The strategy was intended to provide broad support to the policies and principles laid out in the Government White Paper on Integrated Pollution and Waste Water Management as well as other national policies including those relating to energy, agriculture and water. Following a sectoral approach taken in the vulnerability and adaptation studies the NCCRS identified a number of adaptation responses to climate change vulnerabilities. The proposed adaptation strategies per sector include the following.

Health●● – A key concern in the health sector relates to increases in Malaria and schistosomiasis prevalence. To address these expected challenges current measures towards reduction of malaria and schistosomiasis in South Africa will be strengthened by:

Factoring climate change impacts into the existing ●●

disease monitoring and forecasting;Increasing the use of bed nets and other personal ●●

protection measures against mosquito bites; Extending prevention measures, the spraying ●●

programme other conventional malaria control measure to new areas;Strengthening access to basic water and sanitation ●●

so as to reduce exposure to schistosomiasis, cholera, gastro-enteritis and other water borne diseases.

Water●● – To respond to the identified vulnerabilities in the water sector a number of water resource

management and contingency planning have been put in place. These strategies are contained in the National Water Resource Strategy, 2002 which was established in terms of the National Water Act of 1998. The strategies include:

Flexibility in water use allocation; ●●

Water demand management;●●

Water conservation measures, such as clearing of ●●

alien invasive vegetation from infested catchments to increase surface water runoff and recharge to groundwater; Contingency planning in the event of floods and ●●

droughts;Rainwater harvesting to reduce reliance on ●●

supplementary irrigation, particularly in rural areas;Communication and awareness raising;●●

Optimising the operation of existing infrastructure ●●

and constructing new ones; and Enhancing cooperation at a river basin level with ●●

other riparian states for the management of shared watercourses.

Agriculture and rangelands●● - Adaptation to climate change for the rangelands of South Africa is limited to a few options. Alternative land use and decreased dependency on ranching may be necessary to combat the effects of climate change on organised agriculture. These may include game farming, which has been recognised as an adaptation strategy in most Southern African countries. Land use planning will be used to identify trends in land uses that would be advantageous in the event of climate change as well as mainstreaming drought-mitigating measures into farming practices.

To reduce risks associated with food insecurity, marginal production areas could be kept economically viable by reducing input costs, planting drought resistant crops such as sorghum or millet, or switching production entirely to livestock or game ranching (Kiker, 2000). Other options include switching from crop production to ranching. Conservation farming and water harvesting are also considered appropriate adaptation strategies as they reduce dependence on irrigation. Traditionally, irrigation is used as an adaptive strategy to climate variability in semi-arid regions. However the increasing scarcity of water will render irrigation a mal-adaptive strategy. Agricultural management practices that reduce dependence on

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irrigation would relieve pressure on water resources without reducing crop yields and would allow for greater resilience in adapting to future climate change (du Toit et al, 1999). Other potential adaptation measures include the establishment of seed banks to maintain a variety of seed types that preserve biological diversity and provide farmers with an opportunity to diversify crops. Development of more and better heat and drought resistant crops would assist in fulfilling current and future national food demands by improving production in marginal areas.

Biodiversity and Ecosystems●● – A number of measures have been identified to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystems. Critical interventions include:

A biodiversity monitoring network of areas that ●●

combine those at the risk of climate change with biodiversity hotspots and security of tenure could be established in order to implement changes and management practices in the identified areas. Extension of protected areas in locations that are ●●

predicted to experience limited impacts as well as to areas that will improve the representation of a range of micro-habitats will be considered. The extension of the Greater Addo Park in the Eastern Cape is an example of a successful response strategy in this regard (DEAT, 2005).Changes in forestry practices will be important ●●

for adaptation, such as promoting the planting of indigenous trees as well as the development of more drought resistant tree species for use in commercial forestry. Ongoing community-based forestry projects have demonstrated the potential success of indigenous tree cropping as an adaptation strategy to climate variability. Genetic engineering could be used to develop more ●●

heat and drought resistant hybrids of plantation tree species, which would allow the industry to counter the threat of climate change and possibly maintain current production areasImplementing initiatives that protect plant ●●

diversity through ex-situ conservation and seed banks for propagating plants. Ex-situ conservation and seed banks are already an important part of efforts to conserve plant diversity. Priority species will be identified through the use of costs and benefit analyses based on potential importance, genetic variation and uniqueness.

As with plant biodiversity, potential adaptation ●●

options for maintaining animal diversity include the implementation of a conservation area network that would buffer the effects of climate change. Land use practices and land use patterns outside conservation areas should be adapted to minimise the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity conservation and/or future changes in habitat and animal ranges. To protect marine biodiversity the establishment ●●

of a biodiversity monitoring network could be used to identify those species that will be impacted by climate change and may assist in the identification of species that could be used as indicator species.

While the NCCRS notes the potential impacts of climate change in various sectors it falls short of providing a compelling analysis of the socio-economic implications of climate change. Therefore proposed actions do not provide for strategic interventions that would adequately build the resilience of the sectors and the economy against the impacts of climate change. Climate change will have an impact on economic growth, thus necessitating the consideration of socio-economic vulnerabilities and adaptation responses at a policy level (DFID, 2004). The NCCRS to a large extent responds only to the biophysical nature of vulnerability assessment, which characterises the nature of the debate and guidelines within the IPCC at the time South Africa was producing this strategy. Debates within this area and knowledge have advanced with the Nairobi Adaptation Plan of Action, emphasising the need to incorporate socio-economic issues as well as current vulnerabilities in the development of adaptation strategies. The section below provides a brief analysis of key policy documents examining the extent to which climate adaptation is explicitly provided for in the policy framework.

national Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, 20054.3.1.

One of the key policy documents that support national adaptation strategies is the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), which was produced in 2005. The strategy is based on the outcomes of a consultative process which took place in 2004 and included: a National Stocktaking and Biodiversity Assessment report; consultative workshops in all 9 provinces; civil society consultations facilitated by NetBio (an NGO biodiversity network) and workshops with municipalities.

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The Goal of the NBSAP is “to conserve and manage terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity to ensure sustainable and equitable benefits to the people of South Africa, now and in the future”. In support of this goal, the strategy has five key strategic objectives (SO). These are:

SO1: An enabling policy and legislative framework ●●

integrates biodiversity management objectives into the economy.SO2: Enhanced institutional effectiveness and ●●

efficacy ensures good governance in the biodiversity sector.SO3: Integrated terrestrial and aquatic management ●●

across the country minimises the impacts of threatening processes on biodiversity, enhances ecosystem services and improves social and economic security.SO4: Human development and wellbeing is ●●

enhanced through sustainable use of biological resources and equitable sharing of benefits.SO5: A network of conservation areas conserves a ●●

representative sample of biodiversity and maintains key ecological processes across the landscapes and seascape.

Climate change adaptation is explicitly mentioned under Strategic Objective 3 and while recognising the importance of mitigation the NBSAP deals mainly with climate change adaptation. Outcome 3.4 of the NBSAP is “an integrated national programme facilitates adaptation to the predicted impacts of climate change on biodiversity across the landscape and seascape”. This component of NBSAP builds on the findings of the South Africa Country Studies Programme as well as proposed adaptation interventions contained in the National Climate Change Response Strategy. Relevant activities under this SO are;

Activity 3.4.1●● - “Implement an integrated programme for climate change adaptation, with an emphasis on vulnerable ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods”. Through this activity the NBSAP recognises that climate change adaptation is an issue that cuts across several of the strategic objectives, as such interventions are necessary to conserve and sustainably use biodiversity - even in the absence of climate change (DEAT, 2005). Priority sub-activities include maintaining existing vegetation cover and avoiding land degradation and fragmentation of habitat, promoting indigenous plant and animal breeds that are better adapted to the climatic

variability and ex-situ conservation. This activity links three main aspects: sustainable livelihoods, sustainable land management and water conservation. Activity 3.4.2●● – “Ensure that the protected area network is designed to allow for long-term species and ecosystem responses to climate change” This activity responds directly to loss of habitat and habitat fragmentation resulting from: exposure of rangelands and grasslands (especially in already marginal areas) to climate change variability; extremely vulnerable biomes in the west and northern parts of the country; and the vulnerability of freshwater and coastal ecosystems. Climate change impacts are predicted to affect the movement of species and may mean that areas that would have been suitable for species to migrate into under changing climatic conditions are unable to support such shifts. In response to these changes the NBSAP ensures that adaptation options for maintaining animal diversity include the implementation of a conservation area and corridor networks that would buffer the effects of climate change.

national Water Policy 4.3.2.

The National Water Policy focuses on equitable and sustainable social and economic development that benefits all South Africans in line with post-apartheid government policy. It provides a broad policy framework for climate change adaptation in the water sector, while the National Water Resource Strategy (NWRS) discussed below provides potential and specific adaptation responses. The National Water Policy was preceded by the development of 28 Fundamental Principles and Objectives for a New South African Water Law. Principle 7 in particular is relevant for the Water Resource Strategy and states that:

“The objective of managing the quantity, quality and reliability of the nation’s water resources is to achieve optimum, long-term and environmentally sustainable social and economic benefits for society from their use.”

The National Water Policy notes three fundamental objectives for managing South Africa’s Water Resources, which are:

To achieve equitable access to water, that is, equity of 1. access to water services, to the use of water resources and to benefits from the use of water resources.To achieve sustainable use of water by making 2.

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progressive adjustments to water use with the objective of striking a balance between water availability and legitimate water requirements, and by implementing measures to protect water resources.To achieve efficient and effective water use for 3. optimum social and economic benefit.

national Water resource Strategy4.3.3.

The NWRS provides a framework within which water resources must be managed throughout the country, as mandated by the National Water Act section 5.3, which stipulates that South Africa’s water resources must be protected used, developed, conserved, managed and controlled in accordance with the NWRS. It guides the preparation and implementation of all catchment management strategies throughout the country. The fundamental objective of the strategy is “to manage South Africa’s water resources in order to achieve equitable access to water, water resources and their sustainable and efficient use”. The strategies are based on the principles of integrated water resources management and include the following:

Protection of water resources;●●

Water use;●●

Water conservation and water demand management;●●

Water pricing;●●

Establishing an institutional framework for water ●●

management; Monitoring and information systems; and●●

Disaster management.●●

These strategies are sufficiently flexible to accommodate the anticipated effects of climate change as they allow for flexibility in water use allocations, water demand management, water conservation measures and contingency planning for extreme events such as droughts and floods, which are widely recognized adaptation strategies. The strategies are implemented within a framework of equitable access, beneficial utilisation and environmentally sustainable practices stipulated in the National Water Act.

A number of shortcomings have however been noted with regard to the adequacy of the NWRS for climate change adaptation. Mukheibir and Sparks (2006) note that to a large extent South Africa’s current water and policy frameworks have not yet fully and explicitly considered the implications of climate change. The need to balance water demand and availability has not

been adequately reflected in the strategy. The challenge for the future lies in balancing water demand with the available supply, and emphasis needs to be placed on demand management given the finite amount of water (Mukheiber and Sparks, 2003). Current water management mechanisms and policies focus on ensuring existing supplies of water to meet the growing demand. While some of the mechanisms may be sufficient to deal with the future shortages that will be brought about by climate change and variability, robust log-term strategies are still required to ensure that the future water supply matches demand (Mukheibir and Sparks, 2003; 2006). In addressing the projected climate change impacts some of the measures may need to be introduced earlier than originally anticipated (Mukheibir and Sparks 2006). Turton (2008) on the other hand argues that new priorities need to be set for the NWRS. Another area that needs to be strengthened is the incorporation of adaptation measures for aquatic resources in the water supply and demand management interventions (DEAT, 2005).

integrated Sustainable rural Development 4.3.4.

Strategy, 2000

Although this strategy was not designed to respond to climate change impacts it is important to evaluate its potential contribution, as it forms a critical part of a set of policies that are designed to address the challenges of poverty in South Africa and the challenges that the rural poor are faced with. The analysis below identifies potential entry points for adaptation within the context of the rural development policy context and shortcomings that have been noted by other role players.

The Integrated and Sustainable Rural Development Strategy (ISRDS) is designed to realise a vision that will “attain socially cohesive and stable rural communities with viable institutions, sustainable economies and universal access to social amenities, able to attract and retain skilled and knowledgeable people, who are equipped to contribute to growth and development”.

A strategic objective of the ISRDS is “to ensure that by the year 2010 the rural areas would attain the internal capacity for integrated and sustainable development”. To achieve this vision, the ISRDS proposes that government leads in the consolidation, formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of well-coordinated programmes and projects, which will allow for participation of all spheres of government and civil society. According to the ISRDS, the intent of this

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strategy is to transform rural South Africa into an economically viable and socially stable and harmonious sector that makes a significant contribution to the nation’s GDP. The strategy will benefit the rural poor generally, but particular efforts will be made to target women, youths and the disabled.

This strategy is relevant for climate change adaptation responses as it attempts to secure poor people’s access and benefits from natural resources to support livelihood strategies. It will also reform the agricultural sector; diversify rural economies and other key interventions that are likely to reduce poverty and thereby strengthening resilience to climate change. The strategy targets rural areas in which agriculture, forestry, tourism and other activities are growing, and the natural resource base have the potential to support such interventions if issues of access are addressed. These sectors have been identified as being highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Furthermore, the ISRDS makes provisions for extending social assistance to rural areas through social grants and the Expanded Public Works Programme, which focuses on creating employment opportunities for the poor. The role of social safety programmes in cushioning the poor against the impacts of climate change variability is widely recognised, although efforts need to go into long-term measures that build the resilience of the broader social, human, institutional, physical and political capital base of the poor (DFID, 2004). Closer considerations also need to be given to the linkages between poverty alleviation and well-functioning ecosystems at a local level, where the impacts are felt, as well as at a national level where important policy decision are made (DEAT, 2005). In the context of South Africa, long-term measures will require more attention on the land reform process and strengthening the engagement of the poor in the agricultural sector.

A number of observers have criticised South Africa’s rural development strategies and various policy efforts towards poverty reduction. The many structural shortcomings of these policies also have relevance for the extent to which they will be adequate for climate change adaptation. GEAR for instance has been noted as a macro-economic framework that has denied the poor development opportunities and effectively marginalised them from the economy (Noyoo, nd). One of the fundamental pro-poor responses to climate change is to ensure that macro-economic policies reduce poor people’s vulnerability (DIFD, 2004). The development path pursued by the government of South Africa has

instead undermined the adaptive capacity of the poor (Noyoo, nd; Frye, nd). This school of thought argues that government has focused on attracting FDI, higher domestic savings, industrial competitiveness, fiscal policy, moderation of wage increases at the expense of poverty reduction and further marginalised the poor (Noyoo, nd; Frye, nd). The disparities between South Africa’s ‘first economy’ and its ‘second economy’ need to be assessed and reviewed in order to effectively address poverty and thereby build resilience against various shocks, climate change included. It is too early to tell whether the new drive towards ‘a developmental state’ after the 2009 elections will address these fundamental shortcomings.

Agriculture and land policy reform4.3.5.

The Agricultural land reform policy framework is critical for addressing the vulnerabilities that subsistence/small-scale farmers are faced with, and also to address inequalities which result in the South African rural population living in extreme poverty. The South African Land reform programme has three distinct components: restitution, tenure reform and the land redistribution programme. Programmes managed in terms of tenure security and restitution legislation, most notably the Land Reform (Labour Tenants) Act, the Extension of Security of Tenure Act and the Restitution of Land Act, seek to improve certain landless persons’ tenure insecurities. The Restitution Process aims to restore people’s tenure rights which were lost as a result of apartheid legislation. The overall aim of land reform policy is to ensure the transfer of 30% of all agricultural land over a 15-year period. A number of policies are in place to address the challenges in the agricultural sector and implement the land reform agenda. These policy provisions have a potential to address challenges that undermine the adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector and vulnerable groups in South Africa. Some of the relevant policies and programmes are discussed below;

White Paper on Agriculture, 1995●● – The mission is to “ensure equitable access to agriculture and promote the contribution of agriculture to the development of all communities, society at large and national economy in order to enhance income, food security, employment and quality of life in a sustainable manner”.

White Paper on Agricultural Policy, 1998●● – This policy facilitates the contribution of agriculture to the national economic development encapsulated in

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the RDP and GEAR and the objective is “economic growth reducing income inequalities especially along racial lines: eliminating poverty”.

The strategic focus of this policy is to reform the agricultural sector and policy through three strategic aims:

Make the sector more efficient and internationally ●●

competitive;Support production and stimulate an increase ●●

in the number of small-scale and medium-scale farmers; and Conserve agricultural natural resources.●●

Increase agricultural productivity and output, ●●

which will enhance the sector’s contribution to national economic growth;Increase the incomes for the poorest groups in ●●

society, through the creation of opportunities for small-scale and medium-scale farmers to raise their production for own consumption and the market;Create additional employment opportunities in ●●

agriculture; andImprove household food security through expanded ●●

production and a more equitable distribution of resources.

The strategic objectives reflected above are adequate to address vulnerabilities to climate change and support appropriate adaptation strategies, especially for the most vulnerable sections of society, in terms of policy provisions. The policy has a strong component of enhancing food security in rural households through agricultural development support to small-scale and medium-scale farmers. Other areas include strengthening support to livestock farmers, particularly in communal areas where new approaches to range management are necessary; reforming and enhancing extension services; strengthening agricultural research, especially looking into systems which will increase food production by food insecure households in risk-prone agro-climatic environments; enhancing efficiency in irrigation; promoting sustainable resource use of agricultural natural resources (water, land and biodiversity); and deepening access to agricultural finance for resource-poor farmers and small-scale farmers, among other strategic interventions. The critical question, however, lies in how well these policy aspirations and strategies are implemented on the ground and whether the policy framework allows for adaptive management in response

to uncertainty and increased variability due to climate change.

Land care programme●● – The overall goal is “to attain food security, job creation and better quality of life for all”. The programme is a community-based programme supported by the public and private sector through a series of partnerships. It focuses on conservation of natural resources (soil, water and vegetation) through sustainable utilisation and creation of conservation ethics through education and awareness. The programme addresses land degradation and thus contributes to measures towards climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. It provides an entry point for local level adaptation projects that promote sustainable land management and income generation, thereby building the resilience of the natural resource base while at the same time reducing the vulnerabilities of the poor.

Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development ●●

(LRAD), 2001 – The sub-programme has two distinct parts that address agricultural land redistribution The first does this through the transfer of agricultural land to specific individuals or groups, the second by improving people’s access to municipal and tribal land, primarily for grazing purposes. The LRAD is designed to give grants to black South African citizens to access land, specifically for agricultural purposes. The strategic objectives of the sub-programme include:

Contributing to the redistribution of 30% of the ●●

country’s agricultural land over 15 years; Improving nutrition and income of the rural poor ●●

who want to farm on any scale, de-congesting overcrowded former homeland areas;Expanding opportunities for women and young ●●

people who stay in the rural areas.;Overcoming the legacy of past racial and gender ●●

discrimination in ownership of farmland;Facilitating structural change over the long term ●●

by assisting black people who want to establish small and medium-sized farms;Stimulating growth from agriculture;●●

Creating stronger linkages between farm and off-●●

farm income-generating activities;Expanding opportunities for promising young ●●

people who stay in rural areas;

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Empowering beneficiaries to improve their ●●

economic and social well-being;Enabling those presently accessing agricultural ●●

land in communal areas to make better productive use of their land.

Policy on Agriculture and Sustainable Development ●●

– The policy forms part of a process of incorporating the principles of sustainable development into the ethos of the agricultural sector in South Africa. It aims to integrate and harmonise three pillars of sustainable development: social (people), environment (land) and economic (prosperity). Its goal is “to ensure responsible economic development for the benefit of future generations”. Tools for achieving sustainable development in the agricultural sector are agrarian reform, participation, income diversification, land conservation and improved management inputs. The purpose of the policy is ”to facilitate a coordinated approach towards achieving economically, socially and environmentally sustainable agricultural sector”.

National Agriculture Research and Development ●●

Strategy – The implementation of the agricultural research and development strategy will be guided by the vision of the sector plan, namely a united and prosperous agricultural sector. The mission of this research strategy is to “guide and direct the generation, adaptation and application of knowledge and innovation for sustainable agricultural development to benefit society”. The goal of the research strategy is to enhance the contribution of agricultural research towards attaining a 6% economic growth through sustainable agricultural productivity, sustained competitiveness to ensure food security and eradication of poverty in South Africa. The objectives of the strategy are to:

Guide the Agricultural Research and Innovation 1. System in the formation and operation of national agricultural research and development programmes;Mobilise resources and enhance their effective 2. use for sustainable agricultural research and development;Guide the generation of knowledge and 3. information in the agricultural sector;Provide a framework for developing research 4. capacity and expertise, funding for agricultural research and innovation, focussing national efforts to strategic priorities and areas of

comparative advantage, and ensuring effective technology transfer, information sharing and communication to the entire spectrum of the farming community. Under this objective the strategy explicitly acknowledges the need to address climate change issues and related emerging technologies, especially biotechnology and information and communication.Provide an institutional framework to enhance 5. participation of all stakeholders in agricultural research and development; and Engender a culture of learning and innovation 6. through human resource development and management.

A comprehensive set of policies is in place in the agricultural sector. However, challenges have been noted in their implementation. For instance, the South African land reform process is considered to have stalled. Some argue that it has failed completely, mainly due to the tensions between appropriate development paths at macro-economic level and the needs at a micro-economic level. Suggestions are that the land and agrarian reform programme has failed to escape the trappings of neo-liberalism (Noyoo, nd; Thwala, 2003; Greensberg, 2004; Bond 2005; Mngxitama, 2005). As a result even though progressive policies are in place which could enhance adaptive capacities at various levels, landlessness continues to compound poverty in that it impedes communities, especially in the rural areas, to have recourse to a source of livelihood through farming and other land based activities (Noyoo, nd). It curtails poor people’s ability to use land as a reproductive asset (ibid). While a small number of women gained access to land through land reform programmes between 1994 and 2000, land reform did not take place at a sufficiently large scale to benefit the great majority of poor rural women (Walker, 2000). Poor women could not benefit from agricultural programmes as the policy drive post-1999 prioritised the promotion of a black farming class above other commitments (ibid).

To adequately reduce vulnerability to climate change, particularly for the poor and small-scale farmers, and enhance food security at a local level, efforts towards removing the barriers to the implementation of land reform policies need to be enhanced. Of critical importance is mainstreaming these efforts to the adaptation agenda at a national level and renewing political will for agrarian reform. Thus far the ANC

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government has not regarded agrarian land reform as an important component of economic policy due to a focus on urban industrial strategies and a focus on investor-friendly macro-economic policies. The policy environment in South Africa is constantly shifting and adaptation strategies need to take these changes into account while at the same time investing in a political drive to renew commitments towards sustainable development and equity. Equity is one of the critical determinants of adaptive capacity (Burton, et.al).

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Climate Change Adaptation CHAPTER 5: Institutional AnalysisThis section highlights the main institutional actors involved in climate change adaptation and policy responses, and comments on institutional capacities to implement climate change adaptation policies. A number of institutions are actively involved in climate change adaptation in various capacities; they guide national policy development and implementation, undertake research, build the capacity of stakeholders and facilitate the implementation of climate change initiatives. Institutions are critical for climate change adaptation. Yet, inadequate institutional support is frequently cited as a hindrance to adaptation (Burton, et.al. 2001). At another level institutional constraints can limit access to much needed natural resources, and therefore hamper adaptation responses for communities who may be faced with crises and needing to adapt (Kelly & Adger, 1999; Burton et.al. 2001). Experiences from various countries in Southern Africa indicate that adaptation options are not only prevented by institutional inefficiencies but also by political interests (Magadza, 2000).

While one recognises the importance of both formal and informal institutions for climate change adaptation, this section will focus on formal institutions due to time constraints associated with this study. Furthermore, a number of civil society organisations (operating at various levels; local, NGO, national, regional and international) are highly active in the area of climate change and demonstration of progressive adaptation projects. A more in-depth assessment of these efforts and identification of lessons learned needs to be considered in the future to provide a holistic picture on the institutional capacity that exists in South Africa. Civil society has a critical role to play in up-scaling local issues to policy level; it provides a vehicle through which local communities can engage with the UNFCCC processes (Madzwamuse, 2009). Another potential role is with regards to raising public awareness about climate change and ensuring that information reaches those who are likely to be most affected by climate change, i.e. farmers who need regular and timely information in order to adapt their farming systems and the poor who have limited access to mainstream media. Unfortunately information on the activities of civil society on climate change is not readily available in the public domain,

which makes it difficult to assess these initiatives through a desktop study. The Civil Society Organisation (CSO) activities also tend to be under–reported in official government documents prepared for the UNFCCC and other international and regional policy fora.

The subsections that follow provides details on the role of various agencies, examples of climate change adaptation initiatives they are involved in, as well as an assessment of their capacities in climate change adaptation.

Government Actors5.1 South Africa has a complex environmental governance framework. Institutions within the three spheres of government, which include national, provincial and local government, are expected to coordinate and cooperate in the implementation of climate change adaptation interventions, as well as facilitate implementation and policy reform where necessary. Chapter 3 of the Constitution of South Africa3 requires all government departments across and within the different spheres to cooperate in discharging their function –known as cooperative governance).

The national government’s role is to formulate policy and legislation on land reform, water resources, forest resources, marine resources, national parks and national botanical gardens (DEAT, 2005). Functional areas of concurrent national and provincial legislative competence include environmental management, pollution control, soil conservation, nature conservation (excluding national parks, national botanical gardens and marine resources) and regional planning and development (ibid). Areas of exclusive provincial competence include provincial planning, provincial cultural matters and provincial recreation and amenities.

Local governments’ (municipalities) role is to develop Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) that facilitate the implementation of National Development Policies while at the same time reflecting local priorities and coordinating with other spheres of government; they are also responsible for, among others, local parks and storm-water management. In the post-apartheid era the South

3 The constitution of the republic of South Africa Act 108 of 1996

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African government has pursued integrated development planning with a strong focus on strengthening local development planning and administration (Binns & Nel, 2002; DEAT, 2005). Governance structures have undergone changes in the recent past and these changes have affected local government in the short term, creating new opportunities and challenges (DEAT, 2005). This reform has placed local government in a central role in integrating programmes to achieve synergistic rural development. Many need assistance and guidance to develop capacity, but their role and responsibilities are clearly established in various policies and legislation (DEAT, 2005; DEAT, 2009).

It is evident from the above discussion that climate change adaptation, which is part of environmental and natural resources management, falls within these three spheres of government. Furthermore, changes in governance structures have implications for climate change adaptation responses and invariably institutional capacities will differ across the different spheres of government as well as between various sections of government at all levels. Below is a summary of the roles played by key actors at national level.

national Climate Change Committee (nCCC)5.1.1.

The NCCC is the main body responsible for climate change policy development and it was established in 1994. The NCCC is a non-statutory body set up to advise the then Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (the department is now called the Department of Water and Environmental Affairs, DWEA) on matters relating to the national responsibilities with respect to climate change under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The Committee is chaired by DWEA and below is a list of its members.

Government departments including DWEA, ●●

Department of Minerals and Energy, Department of Science and Technology, Department of Foreign Affairs, Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, Department of Housing and Department of TransportProvincial government representatives●●

Non-Governmental Organisations and Community ●●

Based OrganisationsScientific Research Organisations●●

Private sector (business and industry)●●

Labour●●

Government Committee on Climate Change (GCCC)5.1.2.

The GCCC was established to enable coordination across various government ministries and departments. The committee is intended to facilitate the development of a strong and vigorous domestic climate change programme with an appropriate institutional capacity as envisaged in the National Climate Change Response Strategy. The membership is drawn from government agencies only whereas the NCCC is a multi-stakeholder forum. The GCCC advises the Directorate of Climate Change and Ozone Layer Protection on matters relating to national responsibilities with respect to climate change, the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. Below is a list of Departments serving on this committee.

Agriculture●●

Arts Science and Technology (DACST)●●

Foreign Affairs●●

Health●●

Housing●●

Local and Provincial Government (DPLG)●●

Trade and Industry●●

Transport●●

Science and Technology●●

Minerals and Energy●●

Department of Water and Environmental 5.1.3.

Affairs (DWEA)

DWEA is the lead department for directing and coordinating the implementation of the national climate change response programme. The department ensures that all of South Africa’s obligations in terms of climate change agreements are carried out. It is also responsible for the production of National Communications and other reports and requirements the under the UNFCCC. The role foreseen for DWEA in the National Climate Change Response Strategy is to specifically provide appropriate input into policies and actions that are the jurisdiction of other government departments to ensure that inter-sectoral linkages are identified and considered. DWEA hosts both the NCCC and the GCCC.

Department of Science and Technology (DST)5.1.4.

The DST hosts the Climate Change and Biodiversity Unit, which falls under the Socio-Economic Partnerships Programme. The Unit is responsible for coordinating measures that respond to the science and technology needs of various climate change interventions in South Africa. The department leads the technology transfer

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Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBTSA) mandate of the UNFCCC (DEAT &UNDP, 2009), which includes the implementation of the Nairobi Work Programme on Adaptation. This mandate has direct relevance for climate change adaptation in South Africa.

Other departments that are significantly involved in climate change issues include the Department of Minerals and Energy, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, the Department of Transport, the Department of Health, the Department of Lands and the Department of Foreign Affairs (DEAT, 2000). These departments have in the recent past developed vulnerability studies.

Provincial and Local Government5.1.5.

The Integrated Rural Development Programme and the Municipalities Act 32 of 2000 give local government the mandate and authority to develop Integrated Development Plans (IDPs). These must reflect the vision for long-term development of the municipalities with special emphasis on the most critical development priorities and internal transformation needs. The local

governments’ development strategies must be aligned with national and provincial sectoral development planning requirements. Local government is required to clearly identify local development needs and opportunities and to plan to respond to these (DEAT, 2005). They must align their budgets to achieve their planned objectives. The Limpopo and Western Cape provincial governments have used the opportunities accorded by this planning framework to develop region-specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. These initiatives have demonstrated the capacity to plan for local and regional level responses.

While there is policy and legal provision for integrated development planning in the context of economic development planning, it seems from observations made by DEAT (2005) that this does not necessarily translate to the level of cooperation required for effective environmental planning. Although mechanisms exist at national level, such as the Committee for Environmental Coordination (CEC),

these structures could be more effective; structures to ensure cooperative and integration at provincial level are almost completely lacking (DEAT, 2005). Furthermore, although the CEC is mandated by the National Environmental Management Act,4 it is now totally defunct and no longer meets. This is a pity because this committee could be very active in driving the climate change adaptation agenda and guiding the inclusion of this agenda into national development priorities. The Environmental Implementation and Management Plans (EIPs and EMPs) need to provide a broader understanding of the roles, responsibilities, process, structures and mechanisms to facilitate cooperative governance. They should be required to identify weaknesses, establish clear actions for addressing them and measurable indicators for assessing them (ibid). Furthermore, DEAT will need to rationalise the requirements of the different specific environmental management acts (SEMAs), such as the National Environmental Management Protected Areas Act5 and National Environmental Management Biodiversity Act6, which all require that implementing actors (other

government departments) should prepare management and implementation plans. These add a layer of complexity that makes environmental management, and by extension climate change adaptation, an overly cumbersome exercise and could easily provide an excuse for under-capacitated organs of state for not preparing adaptation plans. These concerns point to the extent to which environmental concerns are mainstreamed into national development planning processes. In situations where these are not adequately mainstreamed the implementation of national and local climate change response strategies will be hampered.

Financial and human resources have been noted as key capacity constraints for adaptation at a local level. For instance Mukheibir and Sparks (2006) observe that in terms of implementing required adaptation measures for water resources, personnel, capital and running costs

4 national Environmental management Act (107) of 19985 national Environmental management Protected Areas Act 57 of 20036 national Environmental Biodiversity Act 10 of 2004

While there is policy and legal provision for integrated development planning it seems that this does not necessarily translate to the level of cooperation required for effective environmental planning.

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present real challenges for adaptive capacity at local and municipal levels. The issue of financial constraints is not confined to local government but cuts across the three spheres of government and other stakeholders. DEAT (2009) notes that the main challenges with implementation of climate change related projects are mobilisation of finance for the projects, coordination and the integration of stakeholders into the overall programme.

Another potential challenge to the implementation of climate change adaptation responses at local level is the power struggle between democratically elected structures and traditional decision-making powers. Such struggles could undermine adaptive capacity, particularly in rural municipalities. In South Africa the mandate of local government includes land use planning and local economic development. Although the traditional leadership and municipalities are supposed to work hand in hand in local development, this is often not the case as the de-facto authority of traditional leaders has been widely depleted and often challenged by democratically elected government structures (Lewis et.al., 2009). This conflict and uncertainty between the two leadership structures at municipal level undermines the ability of local governance structures to achieve coordinated decision making and effective leadership (ibid). Such conflicts may prove to be detrimental in times of stress when swift action needs to be taken by local leadership to guide communities towards ‘new’ adaptation strategies.

non–Governmental organisations (nGos)5.1.6.

A mix of national, local and international NGOs are actively involved in the implementation of climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa. These include WWF, Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa, IUCN, EarthLife Africa, Environmental Management Group, Resource Africa and the South African Climate Action Network. They also include aid agencies such as OXFAM and the Norwegian Church of Councils, among others.

The activities carried out by NGOs include climate change research, community adaptation strategies, awareness raising, capacity building and advocacy and lobbying. Information on their specific roles in the public domain tends to be scanty and therefore this section will provide only an indicative list. The capacity of CSOs to meaningfully engage in climate change adaptation issues and support local-level responses depends on the level of funding available for climate change adaptation. Many of the NGOs have called for an increase in financial

resources to be made available through both international and national mechanisms. Provision of funding will also need to be coupled with effective partnerships and cooperation with governments and the private sector so as to mainstream CSO-led adaptation responses into national development planning processes and ensure sustainability. Below is a synopsis of some of these organisations and their work on climate change adaptation7.

Oxfam has worked in South Africa since 1993, mainly focusing on vulnerable and marginalised peoples. In recognition of the impacts of climate change on the poor the organisation and its partners are implementing a research programme on “Anticipating and Reacting to Climate Change in Southern Africa” which has three pilot sites in South Africa.

EarthLife Africa (ELA) is a membership-driven organisation of environmental and social justice activists founded to mobilise civil society around environmental issues in relation to people. The Sustainable Environment and Climate Change Project, a project of ELA, is a fully staffed organisation with the aim of promoting policies and measures for sustainable energy and climate change response in South Africa. They carry out work in many thematic areas such as gender and energy, energy and poverty and energy policy analysis.

The South African Climate Action Network (SACAN) is a network of NGOs and community-based organisations and individuals working on climate change issues in South Africa. SACAN aims to have a positive interaction on climate change issues with government at national, provincial and local levels. This network sits in the NCCC and, according to information posted on the network’s website, SACAN participates in the UNFCCC COPs and Subsidiary Body meetings as an observer organisation and through the international Climate Action Network. SACAN usually also sends a member to serve on the South African national delegation so as to influence South Africa’s national position. In addition, SACAN produces a newsletter for the international negotiations and COPs called the ‘South African Voices for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action’ – popularly known as ‘Voices’. Recently the network issued a position paper that was circulated at the South Africa Climate Change Summit held in March 2009. It raised a number of issues and concerns and called for government

7 This is not an exhaustive list of all nGos involved in climate change adaptation, nor is does it cover the full breadth of the organisations’ adaptation initiatives. A more in-depth study would be required to provide more details and an in-depth study on the role that cSo have in building adaptive capacity, especially at local level and in capturing local experiences to inform the state on knowledge on adaptation in the global climate change policy arena.

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action to increase funding for adaptation responses in South Africa (see http://www.sacan.org.za/index.php). Similar calls were made in Copenhagen through CAN International, a network of NGOs focusing on climate issues, to provide predictable funding for climate change adaptation in developing countries (CAN, 2009).

The Environmental Monitoring Group (EMG) aims to strengthen participation, ownership and responsibility of organisations and communities in the management of their environment through raising awareness, building capacity and facilitating participation of community interest groups in development and policy formulation. EMG also carries out an adaptation project in the Northern Cape which seeks to identify and strengthen the adaptive capacities of small-scale rooibos farmers.

The Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa is an environmental watchdog organisation that also embarks on public education and awareness raising programmes. Its work focuses on issues around pollution and air-quality.

Other NGOs with a presence in South Africa and progressive climate change programmes include the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), World Wildlife Fund South Africa (WWF) and Resource Africa (RA).

research institutions5.1.7.

South Africa has a strong research capacity with a number of researchers playing a prominent role within the IPCC. In addition to a number of world leading universities in the country a number of bodies established by pieces of legislation carryout research that is valuable to the national and international climate change agenda. These institutions are listed below.

National Disaster Management Centre ●● – Instituted under the Disaster Management Act of 2002 to develop and maintain effective information and early warning systems related to disaster management and the management framework for disaster planning and response.Agricultural Research Council ●● – Reports to the Minister of Land Affairs. In 2006 the Climate Change and Agricultural Risk Management Programme was instituted to more explicitly address climate change research. The work of this council will go a long way towards developing targeted research to respond to the adaptation options of the agricultural sector, such as developing drought and heat resistant crop varieties.

South African National Biodiversity Institute●● – Instituted in terms of the National Environmental Management Biodiversity Act. The Global Change Research Group within SANBI is devoted to a range of projects on various aspects of global change, particularly the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, invasive species, land-use change and response planning.Water Research Commission ●● – Established under the Water Research Act and reports to the Ministry of Water Affairs and Forestry. Aims to coordinate water research and inform the development of management strategies. WRC is undertaking research to assess the differential vulnerabilities of the water sector in various parts of the country as well as assess the magnitude of the projected impacts at local level. South African Weather Services ●● – Was made a statutory body in 2001. One of its responsibilities is providing data on climate variability and projections.Council for Scientific and Industrial Research ●● – Founded under the Scientific Research Council Act. Undertakes a variety of work required by government bodies in meeting national and international climate change obligations and concerns.

Research institutions have a significant role to play as more research is needed on climate change to increase certainty on the range of impacts that can be expected, including on human health and ecosystems, as new data becomes available (DEAT, 2005b).

The National Research Foundation considers climate change as a priority research area (DEAT, 2000). Other relevant research institutions include the University of Cape Town Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG), the University of the Witwatersrand School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies and the University of Kwazulu-Natal Institute of Natural Resources.

The institutional capacity that exists in South Africa needs to be capitalised on to support the development of adaptation interventions at local level. This entails providing funding and technical support to community based organisations and local government structures that have an incredible responsibility to develop resilient adaptation strategies to climate change. Priority needs to be given to provinces and local government in areas that are most vulnerable and have little adaptive capacity. The Kwazulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and the Limpopo provinces all face multiple stressors due to climate change and current socio-economic challenges.

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Public Awareness of Climate CHAPTER 6: Change The National Climate Change Response Strategy noted that public awareness and education regarding climate change was lagging behind in the country due to South Africa’s history of isolation from the international community. As a result the of the objectives of the strategy is to “improve the level of education, training and awareness regarding climate change in South Africa and capacitate the government and other sectors to deal with climate change issues effectively for the benefit of the country”.

Although the response strategy undertakes to accelerate the process of relevant education, training awareness and capacity building, it falls short of outlining a specific strategy for doing so, particularly a media and communication strategy. According to poll results posted on the SA FM (a radio station) website 95% of listeners were of the opinion that the South African media was not giving enough coverage to issues of climate change and global warming, while 5% felt that the media was on track. This opinion poll was carried out on the 15th of March 2009. The absence of a strategy in this regard may limit the effectiveness of any awareness-raising efforts as there are no clear strategies for reaching out to different groups with targeted messages. However an analysis of public awareness can be drawn from media programmes, particularly radio and print and possibly press releases issued by government, NGOs and others.

The local launch of previous US presidential candidate Al Gore’s movie, “An Inconvenient Truth,” raised significant awareness and led to widespread debates. This raised levels of awareness and understanding of issues underlying climate change science (DEA&DP-Western Cape, 2008). However, this debate might have been limited to the urban population, which has access to cinemas and satellite TV, and to members of the population who are literate (Koketso, 2007). On the other hand, the release of the Nicholas Stern Report on the global economics of climate change received wide publicity and review in major newspapers and news channels locally (DEA &DP-Western Cape, 2008). This report raised awareness on the socio-economic context of climate change and implications for adaptation (ibid). Stern’s visit to South Africa in 2008 also heightened national interest in his report and climate change in general.

Both local and print media follow and report on various UNFCCC COPs. There was steady coverage in the run up to Copenhagen for COP15, during the COP and for several months after. There seems to be no clear trend in what the media covers. Some papers such as Business Day seem to focus on finance matters, which are of interest to their readership, although specialist sections also cover news on various aspects of climate change science8. The Mail and Guardian has more general coverage both in terms of content and geographical coverage9, while the Sunday Times through its online version Times Live covers predominantly global issues. Concerns have been raised that a lack of focus on national issues may result in South Africans viewing climate change as a distant issue which does not affect them directly (DEA &DP-Western Cape, 2008). If climate change adaptation responses are going to be effective, with every stakeholder playing their role, the implication of climate change on South Africa need to be better and constantly communicated beyond the speeches that are made by Ministers on World Wetlands Day and other special environment days. Climate change needs to become an everyday issue to the point that even the decision-makers outside DWEA recognise it as a national priority and a development issue.

A responsive and relevant media strategy could build on to the momentum, particularly in the radio media where current affairs programmes constantly tie debates to topical national issues. A number of radio stations have held public debates on climate change and energy. These were sparked mainly by the energy crises facing the country and water scarcity, two issues that both have immediate impacts on the national economy. Such an approach puts global challenges into national context, thereby encouraging decision makers and citizens to act or come up with solutions. The recent 24.8% tariff hike for Eskom sparked national debate on radio and media about the implications for energy

8 See, The risk Analysis of climate change by Tim James, 08/12/09; climate change Talks on the Brinks by Jocelyn newmarch, 17/12/2009, $10bn to Help the Poor adapt to climate change is not Sufficient – Soros 10/12/09; www.businessday.co.za

9 See ‘cape Town Frets over climate change, 02/03/10, SAPA; Un to review controversial climate Panel’, nusa Dua, Bali 26/02/10; SA on climate change; no money no deal, 05/08/09 Sapa-AFP; ‘capitalism the real culprit Behind climate change’ by Fanaz Parker 1812/09 available on www.mg.co.za

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tariffs for ordinary consumers as well as the state of the nation’s energy sources and implications of the climate change agreement. The ‘After 8 Debate’ on SA FM, a radio station, for instance organised a number of panel discussions where various experts on energy and climate change debated the issues and the public called in to air their views. What has also sparked public interest recently is the nomination of prominent South Africans into the UNFCC positions i.e. Trevor Manuel’s appointment to a high-level UN advisory group on climate change and finance, and the consideration of former Minister for Environment, Martinus van Schalkwyk, for the UN Climate Change Chief position10.

To improve media coverage on climate change adaptation issues a concerted media and communication strategy needs to be developed to provide a wide array of tools and key messages for different target groups. Some NGOs such as Resource Africa have worked with community theatre to raise awareness. An innovative approach is required for an effective awareness raising strategy coupled with a capacity building programme for the local media.

10 In climate change Hot Seat: Van Schalkwyk may be able to make stronger pledges on climate change, 11/03/10 reuters SAP-AFP, www.businessday.co.za

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Regional and International Action CHAPTER 7: South Africa has played a leadership role in climate change negotiations. It has represented not only national interests, but also the collective interests of developing countries and the Africa Group. The country views this as a strategic role as it stands to gain from the sustainable benefits stemming from the Kyoto protocol (DEAT, 2004). Although adaptation is a critical issue for South Africa, mitigation seems to drive the agenda, mainly due to the vulnerability of the energy sector and the economic exposure that the country faces as a result of its dependence on coal for energy. The potential for greater regional cooperation at the SADC and AU level is also recognised with the NCCRS strongly supporting the NEPAD initiative. The country recognises that there are many benefits to be derived from regional cooperation to serve common areas of interest and maximise the utility of available resources (DEAT and UNDP, 2009).

To ensure appropriate access to the Kyoto Mechanisms and other development funding, South Africa generally aligns itself with the Group of 77 and China Negotiation bloc (DEAT, 2004). However, as one of the leading nations for the Africa Group, South Africa would often side with the rest of the African countries should a disagreement arise between the G77 and the rest of the African nations (ibid). It is important to note though that within the Africa bloc there are also differences which are determined by national priorities. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) view adaptation to the effects of climate change as a top priority, while oil producing countries give priority to response measures. Emerging economies such as South Africa place technology transfer at the top of the agenda11. In such cases South Africa takes the lead and expresses concern for issues of its national and economic interest, such as the development of coal (DEAT, 2004).

In climate change negotiations, South Africa often leads the Africa bloc and champions the position of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ while highlighting issues of equity. The principles of common but differentiated responsibilities for countries signatory to the framework convention requires the international community to take appropriate action, taking into account fully the fact that developing countries have

11 christy van der merwe, quoting Alf Wills DDG Department of Environmental Affairs international cooperation see ’Africa United at climate change negotiations’, 4/08/09 http://www.engineeringnews.co.za

development needs and a lower level of responsibilities for the considerable increase in greenhouse gas emissions (Watts, 2009; Koketso, 2007). This is a position that is widely shared and agreed to by most of the African signatories. In some cases though South Africa has played a controversial role. In Copenhagen a political deal between China, India, Brazil and South Africa (otherwise known as BASIC) and the United States was reached (Hoste, 2010). The rest of the continent took note of this decision, most with resignation and many with anger. While such developments confirm South Africa as a regional power house it also points to the fact that the role it plays in climate change negotiations are not always in the best interest of the African continent. This role is to a large extent determined by national economic interest and South Africa’s position as one of the most powerful emerging economies in the world.

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Conclusions and CHAPTER 8: RecommendationsClimate change adaptation is clearly an urgent issue for South Africa. Although the National Climate Change Response Strategy provides valuable insights on vulnerable sectors there are a number of gaps in terms of ensuring adaptation preparedness. For instance not much is known about the extent of differentiated vulnerability at both national and local levels, particularly as South Africa has high levels of inequality and chronic poverty levels. In a country that has a dual economy it is very easy for ‘2nd economy’ related issues to be overshadowed and forgotten, especially if there are no political champions to speak for and represent the interest of the rural poor, small-scale farmers and rural women in the policy-making arena. The National Climate Change Response Strategy needs to be reviewed to take into account the socio-economic implications of climate change impacts and paying particular attention to vulnerable areas and the resources upon which the rural poor base their livelihood strategies.

South Africa does not have a shortage of policies to facilitate its climate change adaptation response. However, the policy framework is too cumbersome and may need to be streamlined so as not to overwhelm economic and development planning structures at local government level. The existence of these policies and the NCCRS demonstrates the capacity to develop appropriate legislation and policies. However, the challenge appears to lie with implementation capacity within the various institutions (DEAT, 2009). Adaptation responses need to be aligned with long-term policies that seek to address the underlying causes of poverty and vulnerability, such as the land reform process and a review of the impacts of the macro-economic policies on the poor.

A balance of bottom-up and top-down approaches will be required to achieve an integrated and yet responsive national adaptation strategy. The strategy needs to be revised to set the tone for provincial strategies that follow, while at the same time building the capacity of provincial and local governments to enable the integration of climate change adaptation into local development plans. Various resource users and interest groups need to participate in the development of climate change adaptation strategies. An approach that seeks to

mainstream climate change adaptation into development processes will open up the space for engagement and collective solution-seeking as opposed to one that is based purely on climate modelling exercises, which tends to alienate ordinary citizens and policy makers. South Africa has a strong culture of civic engagement and activism upon which to build. The job has been done in terms of the science of climate change and the use of internal capacity in this regard is applauded. The challenge now lies in translating the findings of the South Africa country studies into policy interventions and expanding the analysis to other resources that are critical for the most vulnerable. Such an approach will truly build the resilience of the most vulnerable sections of the South African population to the impacts of climate change.

Investments also need to be made into policy implementation capacity at local level. The institutional capacity that exists at a national level in South Africa needs to be capitalised on, to support the development of adaptation interventions at local level. This entails providing support to community based organisations and local government structures that have a responsibility to develop resilient adaptation strategies to climate change. Priority needs to be given to provinces and local governments in areas that are most vulnerable and have little adaptive capacity, such as Kwazulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and the Limpopo provinces, all of which are faced with multiple stressors due to climate change and current socio-economic challenges

Efforts are required at all levels to improve coordination, communication and seeking public support for the National Climate Change Response Strategy, particularly as adaptation responses would enhance development and service delivery at a local level. Judging from the current mood in the country regarding service delivery, this is a sensitive and urgent issue.

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rEFErEncES

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Ashton, P.J., Hardwick, D. & Breen, C.M. 2008. Changes in water availability and demand within South Africa’s shared river basins as determinants of regional social-ecological resilience. In: Burns, M.J. & Weaver, A.v.B. (Eds.) Advancing Sustainability Science in South Africa. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University Press. Pp 279 – 310.

Ashton, P. & Turton, A.R. 2005. Transboundary Water Resource Management in Southern Africa: Opportunities, Challenges and Lessons Learned. In Wirkus, L. (Ed.) Water, Development and Cooperation – Comparative Perspectives: Euphrates-Tigris and Southern Africa. Bonn: Bonn International Centre for Conversion (BICC). Pp 5 – 32

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