Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities Ulka Kelkar...
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Transcript of Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities Ulka Kelkar...
Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities
Ulka KelkarAssociate FellowTERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s
Who is more vulnerable?
Identifying vulnerability Who and what are vulnerable to the projected
impacts? How vulnerable? Understanding vulnerability
What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability?
Addressing vulnerability How can appropriate adaptation efforts /
policies be developed?
Presentation context and outline
Identifying vulnerability:
Observation
Retreat of the Gangotri glacier
Source: Earth Observatory, NASA
Invasion of chir into oak in Uttarkashi
Identifying vulnerability:
Modelling
N
Watershed
Digitized streams
Subbasins
Streams
Outlets# Linking stream added Outlet
Fig: Location of the watershed in the Upper Yamuna basin
Tata Energy Research InstituteTERI, IHC, Lodi RoadNew Delhi 110003, India
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Koti
Damta
Simla
Solan
Dadahu
Lakhwar
Yamnotri
Tajewala Dehradun
Chakrata
Mussorrie
Yashwant Nagar
UTTARKASHI
SIRMAUR DEHRADUN
SOLAN
TEHRI GRAHW AL
YA MUNA NAGAR
SHIMLA
0 20 40 Kilometers
Impact of climate change on water and agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal
Annual maximum temperatures (1969-1990 and 2040-2060) trend analysis Station Dehradun
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Annual minimum temperature (1969-1990 & 2040-2060) & trend analysis
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Annual rainfall (1969-1990 and 2040- 2060) & trend analysis
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m)
(1969) (2060)(1979) (1993) (2049)
Monthly Average rainfall for two time periods - Dehradun station
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Months (January - December)
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Average monthly (1970-1998) Average monthly (2040-60)
Identifying vulnerability:
Indices and mapping
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DEHRADUNDISTRICT
UTTARKASHIDISTRICTUTTARKASHIDISTRICT
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Total runoff (mm/a)
1157 - 11891190 - 12211222 - 12541255 - 12861287 - 13191320 - 13511352 - 13841385 - 14161417 - 1449
Tata Energy Research InstituteTERI
Vulnerability index for Indian coastline
share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993)
share of population affected in total population of district
district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000)
district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)
Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and
labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and
fertility
Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure
Climate sensitivity index
Observed (1961-90) HadRM2 (2 x CO2)
Identifying vulnerability:
‘Double exposure’
Elements of vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure
Globalizationvulnerability
Climate change
vulnerability
Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)
Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)
Vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity
Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity
Cyclones map
Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone• low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure
Chitradurga, Karnataka• water scarcity• proximity to city• contract farming and exports
Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh• semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition
Jagatsingpur, Orissa• cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves)• high population density• acute poverty• proximity to port
Raipur, Chattisgarh• rice belt of central India• crop diversification• low literacy, infrastructure
Understanding vulnerability:
Local and community focus
A tale of two villages
Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming onlySemi/medium farmers – sale of stocksLandless labourers – seasonal migrationSmall/marginal farmers – temporary
coping measuresNo long-term adaptive solutions
Anghora: head-end of damAccess to irrigation opens up range of
coping optionsMuch better availability of electricity,
health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)
Mixed farming of oranges and soybean
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Use
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vate
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/ lo
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ce
Semi-medium (2-4 ha) Small (1-2 ha) Marginal (<1 ha) Landless
Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern
Timannahalli Mahadevpura
9 3
41
10
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farmers educatedabove Xthstandard
farmers educatedbelow Xthstandard
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5
3
02468
10121416
farmers educatedabove Xthstandard
farmers educatedbelow Xthstandard
mechanised non-mechanised
groundnut48%
onion
17%
sunflower11%
paddy 9%
jowar 2%
ragi
11%
maize
2% groundnut34%
sunflower 10%paddy
10%
jowar
4%
ragi
13%
sericulture 10%
gram 5%
arecanut 4%
coconut4%
fruits and plantation crops 6%
Addressing vulnerability
Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples
Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers– Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs
Cross-sectoral dialogue– Tail-end villages in command area
Agri-based industries and markets– Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills
Support for traditional options– Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in
homestead Development is the best form of adaptation
– Education, health facilities, electricity, roads
Developing adaptation efforts
Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability
Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses
Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change
Adapting to climate variability and climate change Adaptation and sustainable development policies
Future research directions
• Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach – Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events– Application to other sectors / specific regions– Econometric modelling of determinants of
vulnerability
• Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues)
• Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options
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