5th INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION GROUP (ICG) MEETING GEOSS ASIAN WATER CYCLE INITIATIVE (AWCI)

MOHD ZAKI M AMINResearch Centre for Water Resources

National Hydraulic Research Institute of MalaysiaMinistry of Natural Resources & Environment

OCT. 15-18, 2009TOKYO, JAPAN

CLIMATE CHANGE : PROJECTION, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT &

ADAPTATION STRATEGY

OUTLINES

CLIMATE CHANGE

PROGRAM INITIATIVE

NAHRIM’S FUTURE

HYDROCLIMATE DATABASE

CLIMATE CHANGE :

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE :

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

ONGOING AND NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROGRAM & PROJECTS

Recommendation from The National Water Resources Study (Peninsular Malaysia), Mac 2000

Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050 To study the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of the country

Recommendation from The Initial National Communication (INC), 2000

Need for a regional climate model to downscale the climate projections of Global Climate Model (GCM) to regional and local scale

MOTIVATION

Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors in Malaysia

Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular Malaysia

Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic regime

RATIONAL

[1/3]CLIMATE CHANGE

PROGRAM INITIATIVE

[2/3] Climate Change Projection Program

Need for a regional climate model to downscale the climate projections of Global Climate Model (GCM) to regional and local scale

2006 (NAHRIM): Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) – developed by downscaling global climate model (Canadian GCM1 – current and future climate data) at coarse resolution (~410km) to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km);

2009 (MMD): PRECIS climate projection – developed by downscaling Global Climate Model at course resolution to Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak at 50km spatial resolution

Annual rainfall decrease (-3%)

Projected temperature Increase 1.9OC in 2050

Annual rainfall increase (+7%)

Projected temperature Increase 1.6OC in 2050

[3/3] Climate Change Projection – Findings [RegHCM-PM & PRECIS]

5 main modules/para-meters:

Precipitation

Evapotrans-piration

Soil Water Storage

Surface Temperature

Streamflow

http:/futurehydroclimate.nahrim.gov.my

2 types of data sets for each module/parameter:

Simulated Past Data (1984 to 1993)Simulated Future Data (2025 to 2034 and 2040 to 2050)

[2] NAHRIM’s FUTURE HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION DATABASE

Max Daily Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall

Annual Rainfall

[3] NAHRIM’s FUTURE HYDROCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION DATABASE

To undertake an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on seven (7) identified vulnerable sectors - agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy; and

To formulate corresponding adaptation measures

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[4] NC2 : Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Based on a regional approach shows a strong linkage between all the sectors and thus within sector impacts and vulnerability affects other sectors.

The water resources sector is found to be moredominant than the other sectors but its vulnerability isdependent on all other sectors too;

Well developed regions with high demands of water aremost vulnerable to climate change. Based on the sectordependence approach, all sectors are found to bedirectly dependent on the Water Resources, Energy andPublic Health Sector;

The common impact and vulnerability of all sectors arerelated to flood and drainage issues such asflooding and water quality.

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[5] Vulnerability Assessment : Cross-Sectoral Analysis

agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy

Muda RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-17,2007

Golok RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-21,2007

Pahang RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-15,2007Evacuation:>25,000

Muar RiverRainfall Period:Dec. 5-22,2007

FLOODS PERIOD: DECEMBER 5-31, 2007

2006[1] 3 main Rivers[2] Evacuation:

>100,000[3] Abnormal Rainfall

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Extension Research on the Impact of Climate Change on the Malaysian Water Resources, Urban and Rural Drainage System, Catchments Management, Highway Drainage, Dam and reservoir Safety and Integrity, Water Supply Allocation and Distribution, Irrigation Water Demand & Efficiency and Hydrology Analysis & Synthesis – Flood Risk Assessment (2011-2015) by means of:

More realizationMore GCM modelFine scale (grid size) resolutionFine scale time (temporal) resolutionBasin based modelingTo Enhance Computational Capacity (Computer System)Capacity Building

[6] Adaptation Strategies:[1] Development of Hydroclimate

Projection Model

Water Supply: • The per capita consumption and

non-revenue water losses should be reduced as a measure to adapt to climate change, especially to prepare for extreme droughts;

• the water supply sector will have to develop good water harvesting techniques for water conservation (increase reservoir capacity and storages);

• To improve weather and flood forecasting system would support and improve water supply management

Irrigation:• the adaptation would be to

improve irrigation efficiency;

• to develop good water harvesting techniques for the projected low rainfall periods especially during main seasons (increase irrigation supply capacity and storages);

• Rainwater harvesting, soil-water management and drainage improvement should be strengthen;

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[6] Adaptation Strategies:[2] Water Resources

Flood:• Adaptation in Flood

mitigation measures and drainage systems;

• Updated historical records and incorporating future hydro-climate projections in Flood management and design;

• To review structural safety and integrity;

• Improved rainfall, flood forecasting, warning and response system

“No-Regret” solution project -could reduce or absorb any negative impacts of climate change

Water resources project – to be on a regional basis and integrated with all the sectors in competition;

Efforts to integrate water resources management systems should be accelerated.

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[6] Adaptation Strategies:[2] Water Resources

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The hard and softengineering shore protection measures need to be combined.

There is a need to improve and modify the drainage system.

To develop comprehensive management plans for areas at risk from sea level rise as part of the Integrated Shoreline Management Plan (ISMP)

Natural processes within the coastal and marine sector have to be in its existing equilibrium.

[6] Adaptation Strategies :[3] Coastal & Marine

[7] ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[1] CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION PROGRAM

Study of the Impact of Climate Change On the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources in Sabah and Sarawak (2007-2010)

Hydroclimate Projection Downscaling For Malaysia Using Hadley Centre PRECIS Model (2009-2010)

Extension of research on the Impact of Climate Change on the Malaysian Water Resources (2011-2015)• More realization• More GCM model• Fine scale (grid size)

resolution• Fine time resolution• Basin based modeling

ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[2] WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM

[1] Integrated Flood ManagementProgram for Pahang and Muar River Basin in Peninsular Malaysia (end 2010)

Pahang River Basin

Johor River Basin

15Min Rainfall Freq. Analysis (AM Data)Site 3117070@JPA Ampang

34.9

44.4

50.1

55.256.8

61.4

65.7

34.1

44.6

51.6

58.360.4

66.9

73.4

32.0

38.0

42.0

46.0

51.0

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

-2.000 -1.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000

Reduced Variate, Y

Rai

ndep

th (m

m)

AM Data:1970-2004GEV:1970-2004EV1:1070-2004UCL-GEVLCL-GEVUCL-EV1LCL-EV1HP1

Existing Design Rainfall

New Design Rainfall

Upper limit of Design Rainfall (for climate change adjustment)

[2] Updating IDF relationship to maintain design standards (1st quarter 2010)

[3] Integrated rainfall and flood forecasting, warning and response system for Johor, Pahang, & KelantanRiver Basin

Aims to increase lead time forecast to 72-hrs & reduce any severe flood impact

ONGOING & NEAR FUTURE ADAPTATION PROJECT :[2] WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM

[6] Sarawak Integrated Water Resources Master Plan (mid-2010)

[5] National Water Resources Policy and Law in Malaysia (end 2010)

[4] Formulation of the climate change impact on design flood (1st

quarter 2010)

THANK YOUzaki@nahrim.gov.my

http:/www.nahrim.gov.my