Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in

Mitigation

Brian S. Fisher

CRA International

Greenhouse gas stabilisation scenariosScenarioCategory

Radiative Forcing

CO2

Conc.

CO2-eq

Conc.

Global mean temp rise above

pre-industrial

Peaking year for

CO2

emissions

No. of assessed scenarios

W/m2 ppm ppm °C Year

I 2.5 – 3.0 350 – 400 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015

6

II 3.0 – 3.5 400 – 440 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020

18

III 3.5 – 4.0 440 – 485 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030

21

IV 4.0 – 5.0 485 – 570 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060

118

V 5.0 – 6.0 570 – 660 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 – 2080

9

VI 6.0 – 7.5 660 – 790 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 – 2090

5

Total 177Source: IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report

World transport energy use in 2000, by mode

Projected growth in vehicles

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2000 2010 2020

million

Vehicle ownership as a function of per capita income

Data Source: World Bank 2004

Note: plotted years vary by country depending on data availability

Projections for transport GHG emissions in 2020 for some cities of developing countries

Source: Sperling & Salon, 2002

Historical & projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970 - 2050

Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b

Projection of transport energy consumption by region & mode

Source: WBCSD, 2004a

The effect of a scenario postulating the market penetration of all technologies

Source: WBCSD, 2004a

Key conclusions

• Global energy consumption will grow rapidly over the coming 50 years– Much of this growth will occur in developing countries

• Rapid advances in energy technology and diffusion are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Global greenhouse gas emissions will only peak by 2050 if global income growth slows substantially or with the deployment of unforeseen amounts of non-carbon energy

• Technological change and deployment of new energy technologies together with unprecedented global political cooperation are the keys to the solution of the climate change problem

• All transport modes have a part to play but road transport will need to be a major focus

Partnership technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries in Partnership economies by 2050

- thermal efficiency of black coal power stations 65%- thermal efficiency of gas fired power stations 74%- 80% of motor vehicle fleet non-conventional engines- 45% reduction in energy intensity in cement industry- 18% reduction in energy intensity in aluminium- 30% reduction in energy intensity in pulp and paper- 30% reduction in energy intensity in iron and steel

Partnership technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Australia, Japan and United States and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea

Source:ABARE

Definition of scenarios

Global technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries as set out for Partnership economies fully diffused throughout the world

Global technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Annex B countries and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea

Source: ABARE

Definition of scenarios

Source: ABARE

Source: ABARE

Source: ABARE

Source: ABARE