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Transcript of Climate Change: The Need for a Long-Term Objective for Sustainable Climate Policy by Kevin Fay...
Climate Change: The Need for a Long-Term Objective for Sustainable Climate Policy
by Kevin Fay
Executive DirectorInternational Climate Change Partnership
COP 10 - Side EventDecember 15, 2004
Buenos Aires, Argentina
2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 Phone: (703) 841-0626 Fax: (703) 243-2874 www.iccp.net
Scientific Consensus
• IPCC provides consensus on basics of climate change science
• Range of temperature change and sea level rise • Other potential effects more speculative, regional• Continuous assessment required, uncertainties
remain
Rapid Climate Policy Developments
• Climate issue first discussed mid 1980s• 3 IPCC Assessment Reports, 4th in progress• INCCC – 1990• UNFCCC, Rio Earth Summit – 1992• Berlin Mandate – 1993• Kyoto Protocol – 1997• Current Accession or Ratification
UNFCCC – 188 countriesKyoto Protocol – 130 countries, 61.6% of Annex I
emissions
Policy “Consensus”
• All major emitting nations have ratified UNFCCC• Commit to taking emissions reductions• Commit to support stabilization of concentrations to
prevent dangerous anthropogenic modification of the climate
No definition of “dangerous”
• Acknowledges principal of “differentiation” for developing countries
Significant Progress
• Scope of Progress significant given complexity of issue
• Kyoto Protocol raises significant economic, environmental and equity concerns
• Transformation to economically efficient market based approach, path forward
• Difficult policy matters take time
• Challenging without Long Term Objective
Climate Protection Undefined
• Planet has seen high CO2 concentrations previously
• Rate of change – reaching concentration in 200 years not seen for 50 million years
• Slowing rate of change – insurance
• Recognize atmosphere as shared natural resource
• Current policy too short term, punitive
Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001
Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001
Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001
Long Term Objective • Goal Driven Society• Lack of LTO gives policymakers no frame of reference• Revolutionary Technology shift required to move from
business as usual , particularly in transportation and electricity generation
• LTO necessary to stimulate revolutionary technology shift while allowing for evolutionary development and progress among all countries
• Provide milestones to measure progress
Sustainable Climate Policy
• Engage all nations, developed and developing• Recognize that available capital to invest in this effort is
a finite resource and therefore must be invested efficiently
• Remove the immediate economic threat to private-sector and national political interests
• Recognize the investment life cycle within individual industries and their interrelation across sectors
Sustainable Climate Policy
• Avoid premature retirement of capital stock
• Include all significant sources of these gases, including newly industrialized countries
• Provide policymakers and corporate executives with a uniform indication of where the process is expected to go
Montreal ProtocolSuccessful Global Atmospheric Protection Effort
• Issue Identified – 1974• Treaty First Signed – 1987• Science Driven Urgency – Antarctic Ozone Hole, Skin
Cancer• LTO Established – Return atmosphere to 2ppb chlorine• Continuous Scientific, Technology and Economic
Assessment• Differentiation of Developing Country Response
Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine
Estimates of future EESC based on the baseline scenario (Ab, solid line), the maximum scenario (Am, longdashed line), and the hypothetical cases of zero
emissions in 2003 and thereafter (E0) and zero production in 2003 an thereafter (P0) of all anthropogenic ODSs. Also shown are results from the scenario with continued ODS production in the future at 1999 rates (Pc), production that is substantially larger than
allowed in the fully revised and amended Montreal Protocol.
Montreal ProtocolLong Term Goal
• Not formal part of the treaty
• Basis for assessment of policy adjustments
• Allowed for interim technology flexibility
• Assures greater economic efficiency
• Continuous measure of accomplishment
Voluntary vs. Mandatory Approach
• VoluntaryCan Produce Significant ResultsDifficult to Maintain Focus When Competing for Scarce
Resources -- CapitalMakes Free-rider Problem Worse
Voluntary vs. Mandatory Approach
• MandatoryCan Cause Significant Economic DislocationCan Guess WrongCan Stifle Revolutionary Technology Change
Significant Technology Achievements
• Space Race• Arms Race• Information Race
All required significant technological challenges, but more than short-term focus.
Sustainable Development
• Key investment in Next 2-3 decades • Atmosphere as a natural resource• All countries must be involved• Assistance necessary for Developing Countries
Largest Investment in Developing Countries
• Significant Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries
• Foreign Direct Investment• Development Banks • Export Credits
Sustainable Policy Challenges
• Water1 billion people without access to fresh water
• Energy2 billion people without access to reliable electricity
• Now addressed as part of WSSD Plan of Implementation, Millennium Goals, Agenda 21
• Climate Protection
Path Forward
• Identify top Emitters – Developed and Developing• Establish LTO• Identify Milestones• Define Revolutionary Technology Challenge• Compare Against Scientific Findings
Path Forward
• Continuous Assessment of Progress against LTO• Evolutionary Technology Progress →
Revolutionary Technology Change• Dialogue to Reinforce Political Will
Key Elements of Sustainable Development and Interconnections
Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001