Climate Change and Sustainability

Facing Physical Reality 101

Jim WhiteUniversity of Colorado

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research

Times have changed

• We live in truly historic times• We have sought dominion over the

earth for as long as we have been a species

• In the last 30 years, we have demonstrably achieved that goal

Times have changed

• While all previous generations saw the earth as limitless in some way, all future generations will need to consider planetary limits

• Sustainability is our goal• To achieve that goal, we must

understand how our planet functions

If the goal is sustainability…

Is it surprising that humans are changing the planet?

• Simply put…we’re impressive, the biggest cause of change on the planet.

• We have altered the Earth’s energy balance and changed climate

• We cause 10 times more erosion than all natural processes• We make more fertilizer than all bacteria in the world• We make more sulfate than all ocean phytoplankton• Our current energy needs equal all harvestable wind

energy in the atmosphere

How is this possible?… the power of the exponential!

Population

You are here

Use per capita: the big multiplier

China: 5 times below EuropeIndia: 8 times below EuropeUS: 2 times more than Europe

The Nasty Dilemma: we want others to live well, but if they do, the energy and resource needs will be staggering

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930

400

800

1200

1600

2000Ca

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Em

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ns p

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ear

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China

USA

JapanRussian Fed. India

07

2009

Time (y)

The challenge of global domination

• Unintended consequences– Fertilize crops in Iowa: Mississippi Delta Dead

Zone– Global commerce: species spread and ecosystem

destruction– Fossil fuel energy: climate change– Climate change: birds and caterpillars

• Costs of management: replace ecosystem services

• Costs of change: mismatch of resource availability and need/use

The challenge of global domination

• Resource scarcity– Food– Fresh water– Minerals: e.g. Lithium– Energy

• Shrinking adaptation time: coal example

Timing and tipping points• Not classical… not

always recognized and not always abrupt, but a threshold, a point of no return is crossed resulting in large, inevitable change.

• The“canoe on the Niagara River” type events: strong positive feedbacks

Is it economics, or is it ethics, morals and religion

?Economic arguments will win if grow is what we do.

The exponential: a hypothetical example

Coal Lifetime: 500 yrs, no growth in use

Coal Lifetime: 500 yrs, growth in use

Note the scale change!

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

reservoir with 1% growth in use

reservoir with 3% growth in use

Kyoto was passed in 1997…Since then, CO2 levels are >20% higher… in other words, about 20% of all FF’s ever burned were burned since 1997…

One generation, the post WWII generation, will burn nearly all of the oil and natural gas economically available

Sobering thoughts…

The loose railroad ties

• The targets are still fuzzy, so the solutions must be adaptable: 350.org

• Time scale mismatch: planetary versus political timescales

• The Earth also contributes (feedbacks): polar carbon, melting ice sheets, shrinking sea ice…

• Hysteresis (aka: can you really go home again?): geoengineering

• A dynamic and changing planet: sea level, rainfall, etc.

Beyond climate change

• Climate change is training wheels for sustainability

• We have larger problems to face and solve– Food– Water– Mineral resources– Population– International cooperation

• Every problem faced is a step towards sustainability

Living with our (inevitable) footprint

• CH4 is in part a food greenhouse gas. It is produced by rice cultivation and domestic animals

• N2O is a food gas• Birds and the bees: Rachel Carson (we

still check very few new chemicals for impacts) and pollinators (what’s killing the bees?)

Final comments:

Responsibility

Ethics and economics

My 3 simple rules of sustainability:

1. Everything must cycle2. Population must be

controlled (equality of the sexes), and vary inversely with resource use per capita

3. Equity must be considered and acted upon