Climate Change Summit - Ben Page
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Transcript of Climate Change Summit - Ben Page
Consumers and Climate Change
Ben Page, Chief Executive Ipsos [email protected]
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May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
Only one person in 20 really worried
Cameron’s “Vote Blue, go Green”
campaign at 2006 local elections
9/11 London Bombs
Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic cloud reaches northern Spain
Wettest Autumn since records began – widespread flooding
across the UK
EC proposes carbon emission
cuts of 20% by 2020
Hurricane in Kensal Rise
Brown becomes
PM
Stern report
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Cameron becomes
PM
22
41
60
42
Uncertainty about the science and impacts
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that……?
Many scientific experts stillquestion if humans are contributing to climate
change
% Disagree % Agree
I sometimes think climate change might not be as bad
as people say
Base: 1,039 GB adults aged 15+, interviewed f-2-f and in home, 23-29 May 2008
17
20
33
27
25
26
15
14
7
9
3
4
Half of the British public are sceptical of politicians’ motives
Base: Online survey, 1043 British adults aged 16-64, February 2010
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither / nor% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree% % Don't know
Below are a number of statements that other people have made about climate change/global warming. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI / Euro RSG
Politicians make a fuss about climate change in order to distract us from other issues
Climate change is being used by the government as an excuse to raise taxes
50
47
14
56
12
114 3
% Neither agree nor disagree
% Strongly agree% Don’t know / no
opinion
%Tend to disagree
% Tend to agree
% Strongly disagree
Base:1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6 th January-26th March 2010
Source: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI
The British public are uncertain about what the effects of climate change will be
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about climate change?
It is uncertain what the effects of climate change will be
69
44
30
28
38
47
43
12
14
19
3
9
8
3
2
Concern around climate change remains high..
2005
2008
2010
How concerned, if at all, are you about climate change, sometimes referred to as ‘global warming’?
Source: 2010 and 2005: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI
Source: 2008 Ipsos MORIBase: 1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January-26th March 2010;
1,491 British adults, aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005
% Not at all concerned% Not very concerned% Fairly concerned% Very concerned
% Don't know/No opinion
What about business?
8 40 31 9
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree
Public split on importance of CSR to brand choice
I am more likely to choose one brand over another if I know they take their social and environmental responsibilities seriously
5921
33
43
36
1810
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree
Large increase in proportion saying they try to buy Fair Trade in just three years
2008
I try to buy ‘Fair Trade’ products where possible
2005
Views of packaging have hardened over time
‘Amount of packaging’ a bigger consumer concern than food miles, Fair Trade, overall carbon footprint
In the same vein, more people now agree that packaging is "a major environmental problem"
79
82
68
71
%
% think food is over packaged
% agree packaging is a “major environmental problem”
1997 2008
Plenty of evidence that short-term concerns win over ‘green’ issues
Source: Advertising green products today: A view from The Futures Company July 2010
Interest in the general, aversion to the specific
Percentage of people who…
…are concerned about climate change
83%
…prefer to buy environmentally friendly products
77%
Source:Defra Tracking Report 2006; Green and Ethical Consumers, Mintel, 2007; British Airways
…report using carbon offsetting for their flights
2%
…regularly carbon offset their flights
0%
…would pay more for environ-mentally friendly products
39%
…claim to take action to reduce environ-mental impact of their travel*
19%
*Proportion of respondents who report taking one or more of the following steps: using more environmentally friendly transport, cutting down holiday flights or carbon offsetting flights
Sustainability remains a key issue – but needs to link to brand choices
Source: Marketing, 29/9/10
General attitudes and good intent count for little at the moment of choice in-store
Hence increasing activity being brand-focussed, not CSR in the conventional sense
We need to balance out the need for sustainability with other key goals for brands – visibility, consumer acceptance
– At times there will be a conflict
Which behaviours? Perceptions of impact on climate change
84%
7%
10%
10%
11%
16%
17%
22%
34%
40%
26%
8%
7%
17%
38%
11%
33%
29%
7%Recycling
Developing cleaner engines for cars
Base: All respondents 2,037. Fieldwork dates: 14th – 20th June 2007
Q Which of the actions on this list, if any, do you think will do the most to help reduce climate change?
Avoiding creating waste in the first place
Making fewer car journeys
Using less electricity
Taking fewer foreign holidays
Walking or cycling
Using public transport
Buying locally-grown food
People having fewer children
General public
Experts
Need legislation plus social marketing. ….to overcome the challenge of cognitive polyphasia…
Successful behavioural change campaigns use a mix of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing
Source: Websites, press search
– Publicise perils of climate change for next generation
– Publicise benefits of reducing greenhouse emissions (e.g., Action Blue Sky in Hong Kong)
– Make energy saving easy
– Give them the tools
– Invest in public transport
– Identify energy-efficient devices
– Discounts on energy saving light bulbs
– Tax petrol and aviation fuel
– Subsidise R&D into sustainable fuels
– Create car pool lanes– Fines for not
recycling – Ban use of CFCs and other greenhouse gases
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce
But you can also learn from behavioural science
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce
– People make choices without going through a full ‘rational’ decision-making process’
– Certain innate biases pre-dispose people to short-cut decision-making processes
– Applying these biases in a systematic way can make behavioural change campaigns significantly more likely to succeed
18
Short-circuiting the rational decision making process
Gather pertinent information
Process pertinent information
Calculate optimal choice
Rational
process ‘Rational decision’
Decidebased on faulty cal-culations
Decide without fully
processing the facts
‘Irrational decision’
Short- circuits
of the ‘rational’ process
Decide
without all the data/using irrelevant
data
Question
What percentage of
African countries
are members of the
United Nations?
Evidence – anchoring
Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974
Numbers
shown on
“roulette”
wheel
Mean
estimate of
respondents
10
65
25%
45%
Example bias – anchoring
People’s estimates are swayed by data suggested to them beforehand, even when they know the data is irrelevant or false.
Source:Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis
Case study – anchoring
Source:5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US
Case study – anchoring!
Source:6 a Day campaign in Denmark
Example bias – Social norms
Source:Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967); Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis
People tend to follow their peer group – if they see many people doing something, they aim to do it too.
13%
21%
12%2%
39%
14%
Social norms - Support for collective action
Strongly agree
I would do more to try to stop climate change if other people did more, too
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagreeDon’t know
Neither/nor
Base: 2,037 British adults, 14th – 20th June 2007
People often stay with the status quo, even if it costs them more to do so
Example bias – status quo
Source: Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1991); McKinsey synthesis
Case study – status quo
Evidence – status quo
Source:Benartzi and Thaler, Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving, 2001
11.6
3.5
Month 28 Month 0
In 28 months average savings increased by more than 300%
Each time an employee receives a pay rise….
….An additional 3% of his/her income is channelled into a savings scheme
Average savings per employee (% of income)
“Save More Tomorrow” Plan
You are more likely to obtain a large commitment if you obtain a small one first.
Example bias – reciprocity
Source:Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis
Evidence – Encouraging Reciprocity
Source: Influence: the psychology of persuasion, Cialdini, 2006 edition, Ipsos MORI research
Ask neighbour to “watch my things”
Leave without asking
2. Leave the radio to go swimming
1. Experimenter sits on beach with a radio
3. Thief tries to steal the radio
20% try to stop
the thief
95% try to stop
the thief
4. Test public reaction
Behavioural Norms you might exploit….
Decide without all the data/using
irrelevant data
Decide without fully processing
all the facts
Decide
based on faulty calculations
Short-circuits of rational decision-making process
Reciprocity Liking
Consistency Scarcity Endowment
Social norms Authority
Status quo
Availability/ recency
Choice overload Justifiability Anchoring
Breakpoints
Certainty preferenceLoss aversion Probability
misassessment
Regret aversionFraming/ contrast
Hyperbolic discounting
Mental accounting
Biases
False memory
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
AIDS awareness change in the UK
Source: Health Profile of England and Wales
Number of diagnoses of gonorrhoea
Thousands, in England and Wales
Action across multiple fronts to reduce STIs
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce
BBC programming about AIDS
Distribution of free condoms
“Tombstone” campaign
Use of numerous biases including Authority, Liking, Hyperbolic Discounting, Probability Misassessment and Social norm
None
Social norm: James Bond and the decline in STIs in the 1980s
Source: Avert; BBC; www.universalexports.net
0
1
2
3
Average Bond girls per film by actor
Connery
Lazenby
Moore
Dalton
Brosnan
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Three questions that need a “yes” answer
Define the shift
you want to see
Devise the actions
to deliver the shift
Execute and
monitor the results
Do you really understand your target audience and what drives their behaviour?
How are you going to define and measure success?
Have you lined up the right partners to help reach and influence the target audience?
Bottom line – have to show consumer benefit (and nudge) Concern is not rising…
Socially and environmentally responsible shopping appears to have plateaued and brands can no longer charge more for this
While there is an increasing expectation that brands offer such options, but need to illustrate the pay-off for consumers
– Consumers want ‘fair trade’ and expect it in many ways, but they will not want to pay more for it, especially for smaller ticket items
– Emotional pay-offs are important, but it needs to be more than just ‘feel good about our brand’; consumers want to know what it does for them
Still huge potential for nudging, and remember internal benefits as well – people want to do the right thing…
Daily Mail
DailyExpress
The Sun
The Mirror
Daily Record
Financial Times
The Metro
Other
Daily TelegraphNone of these
Evening Standard
Daily Star
The Independent
The ScotsmanThe Guardian
The TimesThe Herald (Glasgow)
02468
1012141618202224
% pollution/environment is important issue
Pollution/environment: by daily readership
Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007