Climate Change Situation in South Asia_Dr. Shelly

8/8/2019 Climate Change Situation in South Asia_Dr. Shelly

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Greetings fromGreetings from

Caritas BangladeshCaritas Bangladesh


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Climate Change SituationClimate Change Situation

andandImpact in SouthImpact in South--AsiaAsia

Anwara Begum, PhDAnwara Begum, PhD

Director, Fisheries ProgramDirector, Fisheries ProgramCaritas BangladeshCaritas Bangladesh

andandBoard Member, CANSABoard Member, CANSA


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GeographicalGeographicalRegionRegion ClimaticClimaticZonesZones CountriesCountries

South AsiaSouth Asia Tropical,Tropical,

Arid andArid andSemiSemi--AridArid

Tropical:Tropical:

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,

Maldives, Nepal, Sri LankaMaldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka

Arid and SemiArid and Semi--Arid:Arid:

Afghanistan, PakistanAfghanistan, Pakistan


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General views of South AsiaGeneral views of South Asia

AsiaAsia Largest and most populous continent

46 countries, covering 30% of worlds land and 60% ofpopulation

South AsiaSouth Asia 8 countries, population 1.6 billion and likely to exceed8 countries, population 1.6 billion and likely to exceed

2.26 billion by 20502.26 billion by 2050

70% people live in rural area, 75% poor, depend on70% people live in rural area, 75% poor, depend onAgriculture/NR disproportionately affected by ClimateAgriculture/NR disproportionately affected by ClimateChangeChange

Monsoon is the most significant event in South AsianMonsoon is the most significant event in South Asianeconomic calendareconomic calendar


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33//55 of cultivable land is rain fed, hence timelyof cultivable land is rain fed, hence timely

arrival of rain is crucialarrival of rain is crucial

The Himalayas are the home to the regionalThe Himalayas are the home to the regionalglaciersglaciers -- melting creates flood risk; long runmelting creates flood risk; long runcould create water shortage, this risk cut acrosscould create water shortage, this risk cut acrossborders. (Glaciers retract in Nepal can floodborders. (Glaciers retract in Nepal can floodBangladesh)Bangladesh)

Increase in temperature will accelerate snowIncrease in temperature will accelerate snow

melting which coinciding with the summermelting which coinciding with the summermonsoon, contribute to flood disasters inmonsoon, contribute to flood disasters inHimalayan catchments.Himalayan catchments.


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Climate Change Context of South AsianClimate Change Context of South Asian

Highly vulnerable to climate changeHighly vulnerable to climate changeamong the sub regions of Asiaamong the sub regions of Asia

Key biophysical vulnerabilities to climateKey biophysical vulnerabilities to climate

change, vulnerability and extreme eventschange, vulnerability and extreme eventsin South Asia vary widely across thein South Asia vary widely across theregion due to differences in physical,region due to differences in physical,social and economic circumstancessocial and economic circumstances

Climate disorder affects every sector ofClimate disorder affects every sector ofsociety includessociety includes -- agriculture, water,agriculture, water,health, coastal zone, biodiversity,health, coastal zone, biodiversity,

ecosystem, socioecosystem, socio--economic development.economic development.


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Exploitation of natural resources associatedExploitation of natural resources associated

with rapid urbanization, industrialization,with rapid urbanization, industrialization,economic development led to aireconomic development led to air-- waterwaterpollution, land degradation and otherpollution, land degradation and otherenvironmental problemsenvironmental problems

Geographic location with high poverty,Geographic location with high poverty,population density has rendered South Asiapopulation density has rendered South Asia

vulnerable to the impact of climate change.vulnerable to the impact of climate change.


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Climate change impact on one sector may haveClimate change impact on one sector may haveimpact on other segment of economy.impact on other segment of economy.

Example:Example:

AgricultureAgriculture

IndustryIndustryBiodiversityBiodiversity

Coastal zone managementCoastal zone management

Parts of South AsiaParts of South Asia -- becoming drier due tobecoming drier due tomore heat and evaporation, unevenmore heat and evaporation, unevenprecipitation, weather pattern change.precipitation, weather pattern change.

Water

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Ocean warming increasing cyclone, tornado.O

cean warming increasing cyclone, tornado.water surgewater surge

SLR due to meltingSLR due to melting impacting live andimpacting live andlivelihood of millions of poor peoplelivelihood of millions of poor people

Example:Example:

AilaAila -- 25th May, 200925th May, 2009

-- washed away Coastal embankmentswashed away Coastal embankments

-- 271 died, 40,000 people lost home/assets,271 died, 40,000 people lost home/assets,now living on broken embankments at high risknow living on broken embankments at high risk

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LongLong--term change in temperature and rainfall haveterm change in temperature and rainfall havedirect implication on agricultural yields.direct implication on agricultural yields.

RainRain onset, duration magnitude.onset, duration magnitude.

Extreme weather events like floods, drought,Extreme weather events like floods, drought,cyclone directly damage crops.cyclone directly damage crops.

In Bangladesh between 1991 and 2000, 93 disasterIn Bangladesh between 1991 and 2000, 93 disasterrecorded, huge lose of agrorecorded, huge lose of agro--production.production.

Scarcity of surface water, decreasing ground waterScarcity of surface water, decreasing ground waterlevel will affect agriculture, fisheries, and otherlevel will affect agriculture, fisheries, and otherlivelihood options.livelihood options.

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Temperature increaseTemperature increase -- soil losssoil loss -- moisture,moisture,fertility, microbial function.fertility, microbial function.

SLR/Salinity intrusionSLR/Salinity intrusion--crop failure, lesscrop failure, less

production, loss of fertile costal landsproduction, loss of fertile costal lands

Unpredictable farming conditionUnpredictable farming condition -- FarmersFarmerstraditional crop calendar will have disruption.traditional crop calendar will have disruption.

Increase incidence of pest and vector borneIncrease incidence of pest and vector bornediseases.diseases.

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Impact on Agriculture is location specificImpact on Agriculture is location specific--within the region/ country/ parts of the countrywithin the region/ country/ parts of the country

Short duration, heavy rainShort duration, heavy rain -- hill slide, stonehill slide, stoneslideslide -- sudden crop damage.sudden crop damage.

One degree rise in temperature will decreaseOne degree rise in temperature will decrease10% yield of rice.10% yield of rice.

Higher temperature during flowering of rice willHigher temperature during flowering of rice will

reduce grain number, size and quality.reduce grain number, size and quality. Substantial loss will be occurred in rainSubstantial loss will be occurred in rain--fedfed

wheat.wheat.

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2.52.500C or more increase will drop in yield in nonC or more increase will drop in yield in non

irrigated wheat and rice.irrigated wheat and rice.

By 2100 net production of SA is projected toBy 2100 net production of SA is projected todecrease 4decrease 4--10% (under most conservative10% (under most conservative

scenario)scenario) Impact of climate change on Asian marineImpact of climate change on Asian marine

Fisheries occursFisheries occurs -- will be disturbed as itwill be disturbed as itdepends on water chemistry and food chain.depends on water chemistry and food chain.

Inland Fisheries will be adversely affected byInland Fisheries will be adversely affected bylower availability of oxygen in highlower availability of oxygen in hightemperature, timing, amount of precipitationtemperature, timing, amount of precipitationaffects spawning, growth rate, growing period.affects spawning, growth rate, growing period.

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HealthHealth

Climate change will bring new challenges forClimate change will bring new challenges for

maintaining health as many major diseases are climatemaintaining health as many major diseases are climatesensitivesensitive

Vector for disease like malaria, diarrhea, cholera,Vector for disease like malaria, diarrhea, cholera,dengue are highly climate sensitive, could become moredengue are highly climate sensitive, could become morepervasive with rising temperature.pervasive with rising temperature.

Decline yield, food availability could lead toDecline yield, food availability could lead tomalnutrition, push to other diseases, South Asiamalnutrition, push to other diseases, South Asia-- of ofthe childrenthe children -- aged 0aged 0-- 5 years are malnourished.5 years are malnourished.

A warmer climate will increase air pollution, increaseA warmer climate will increase air pollution, increase

respiratory and air borne diseases.respiratory and air borne diseases. Flood, water surge, cycloneFlood, water surge, cyclone -- will cause transmission ofwill cause transmission of

diseases through unclear / stagnant water.diseases through unclear / stagnant water.


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With increased rainfall, areas with inadequateWith increased rainfall, areas with inadequate

sanitation, diarrhea disease, cholera, dysentery,sanitation, diarrhea disease, cholera, dysentery,typhoid occurrence will increase: Example:typhoid occurrence will increase: Example: --Flooding west Bengal in 2007, 276 death fromFlooding west Bengal in 2007, 276 death fromcholeracholera

Air pollution and rising ozone level exacerbateAir pollution and rising ozone level exacerbatechronic illness such as cardiovascular diseasechronic illness such as cardiovascular diseaseand asthmaand asthma

Temperature extremesTemperature extremes -- heat strokeheat stroke

cardiovascular, respiratory disease, heat wavecardiovascular, respiratory disease, heat waveaffect poor and out door laborersaffect poor and out door laborers

Rising temperatureRising temperature -- spreading of disease andspreading of disease andpest, a threat for agriculture.pest, a threat for agriculture.

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WaterWater

Climate change will have effect on water

- Surface- Underground- Sea/Ocean

Will affect drinking, irrigation and hydro -power production.

More floods will degrade drinking water,damage crops, livestock.

Sea level rise will affect ground water aquifers.

Higher altitude area :Nepal, Bhutan,Afghanistan temperature will rise 1.50C - 2.50Cby 2050, less rain.


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By 2050 Annual run off in the Brahmaputra is projectedBy 2050 Annual run off in the Brahmaputra is projectedto decline by 14% and Indus by 27%.to decline by 14% and Indus by 27%.

Heavy monsoon rain will bring in flash flood in SouthHeavy monsoon rain will bring in flash flood in SouthAsiaAsia

Hill slide, stone slide, problems in water shadeHill slide, stone slide, problems in water shademanagementmanagement

Himalayan ice melting will cause more floods, after 2/3Himalayan ice melting will cause more floods, after 2/3decades water scarcity will occur in the linked riversdecades water scarcity will occur in the linked rivers--Ganga, Brahmaputra and Jamuna.Ganga, Brahmaputra and Jamuna.

Floods are likely to intensify causing major problem inFloods are likely to intensify causing major problem inBangadesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of India.Bangadesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of India.

SLR will degrade coastal aquifers, createSLR will degrade coastal aquifers, createdrinking/irrigation problem.drinking/irrigation problem.

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Ecosystem and BiodiversityEcosystem and Biodiversity

Climate change impacts on productivity andClimate change impacts on productivity andresilience of ecosystems, critical for life, sustainingresilience of ecosystems, critical for life, sustainingenvironmental scenario, i.e., water shed protection,environmental scenario, i.e., water shed protection,soil fertility and carbon sequestration.soil fertility and carbon sequestration.

Plant and animal will be at risk of extinctionPlant and animal will be at risk of extinctionexample: wetland, forest.example: wetland, forest.

2020--30% of species will be at risk of extinction if30% of species will be at risk of extinction if

warming continues at its current rate.warming continues at its current rate.

Mangrove forest will decline. Consequence willMangrove forest will decline. Consequence willmake the region susceptible to storm, waves rivermake the region susceptible to storm, waves rivererosion, loss of biodiversity.erosion, loss of biodiversity.


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Climate change will accelerate damage to freshClimate change will accelerate damage to freshwater ecosystem such as lakes, marshes andwater ecosystem such as lakes, marshes andrivers.rivers.

Ocean chemistry is changing more than 100Ocean chemistry is changing more than 100

times rapidly than it was during last 2100times rapidly than it was during last 2100years. Since industrial revolution, Oceansyears. Since industrial revolution, Oceansbecame 30% more acidic will cause coralbecame 30% more acidic will cause coralbleaching, sea fish birds will be under threat.bleaching, sea fish birds will be under threat.

Climate change will affect on the futureClimate change will affect on the futuredistribution, productivity and health of forestdistribution, productivity and health of forestthroughout SA, ultimately will reducethroughout SA, ultimately will reduce

ecosystem quality.ecosystem quality.

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Sea level riseSea level rise

MaldivesMaldives--96% islands occupy less than 1 km of land96% islands occupy less than 1 km of land

80% of the country lies below 1m of sea level, could80% of the country lies below 1m of sea level, couldcreate existential threat.create existential threat.

60 million of people of SA will be at risk of coastal60 million of people of SA will be at risk of coastalflood.flood.

Seal level rise threatens the existence of many smallSeal level rise threatens the existence of many smallisland and development prospects of coastalisland and development prospects of coastalcommunities. IPCC projection for 2100 range from 9 tocommunities. IPCC projection for 2100 range from 9 to88 cm.88 cm.

A Tourist Centre of Maldives


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Sea level riseSea level rise

SLR is a concern for coastal urban areasSLR is a concern for coastal urban areas

(Khulna, Karachi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai,(Khulna, Karachi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai,Cochin).Cochin).

Fertile delta system threatened by inundation,Fertile delta system threatened by inundation,

salinity intrusions: Examplesalinity intrusions: Example -- Bangladesh.Bangladesh. Salt water intrusion in low lying agriculturalSalt water intrusion in low lying agricultural

plains and water resources could lead toplains and water resources could lead tolocalized food insecurity, spread of waterlocalized food insecurity, spread of water

related diseases and contamination of freshrelated diseases and contamination of freshwater resources.water resources.


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Bangladesh has direct inundation impactBangladesh has direct inundation impact

Rising sea levels in particular, pose a growingRising sea levels in particular, pose a growingthreat to the communities in lowthreat to the communities in low--lying coastallying coastalareas of SA countriesareas of SA countries

Some countries could loose large area of landSome countries could loose large area of landfor both habitat and food productionfor both habitat and food production

SLR could force millions of people toSLR could force millions of people to

relocate/migraterelocate/migrate

BY 2100 about 30 million people of BangladeshBY 2100 about 30 million people of Bangladeshwill be climate migrantwill be climate migrant

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Climate Change Situation in South Asia_Dr. Shelly

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