Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment
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Climate Change Scenarios Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessmentfor Impact Assessment
Indian Institute of Tropical Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyMeteorology
K. Rupa KumarK. Rupa Kumar
Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002
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The PeopleThe People Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI)Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Krishna KumarDr. K. Krishna Kumar Mr. C.M. MohileMr. C.M. Mohile Mrs. S.K. PatwardhanMrs. S.K. Patwardhan Dr. P.K. MishraDr. P.K. Mishra Dr. G.B. PantDr. G.B. Pant Collaborators/Consultants:Collaborators/Consultants:
Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of ReadingDr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley CentreMr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra UniversityProf. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
ObjectivesObjectives Research TasksResearch Tasks Observed climate change in IndiaObserved climate change in India Coupled model projectionsCoupled model projections HadRM2 diagnostics and scenariosHadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios HadRM3H installation at IITMHadRM3H installation at IITM
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ObjectivesObjectives
Evaluation of Regional Climate Model Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climatesimulations for Indian climate
Estimation of uncertainties in model-Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictionsbased predictions
Development of future climate Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21scenarios for India during the 21stst centurycentury
Preparation of climate change scenario Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessmentsproducts for impact assessments
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Research TasksResearch Tasks
Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for IndiaIndia
Development of climate change scenarios Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experimentsbased on HadRM2 experiments
Installation of HadRM3H at IITMInstallation of HadRM3H at IITM Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3HSensitivity experiments with HadRM3H Climate change scenario runs with Climate change scenario runs with
HadRM3HHadRM3H Quantification of key uncertaintiesQuantification of key uncertainties
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All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)
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Long-term Trends Long-term Trends in Indian Summer in Indian Summer Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall
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All-India Mean Surface All-India Mean Surface TemperaturesTemperatures(1901-2000)(1901-2000)
Based on a Based on a constant constant network of 31 network of 31 stations well-stations well-distributed over distributed over IndiaIndia
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Long-term Trends in Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Annual Mean Surface Air Surface Air TemperatureTemperature
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Diurnal Asymmetry of Diurnal Asymmetry of All-India Mean Annual Temperature TrendsAll-India Mean Annual Temperature Trends
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Te
mp
era
ture
(ºC
) Minimum Temperature
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Te
mp
era
ture
(ºC
) Mean Temperature
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Te
mp
era
ture
(ºC
) Diurnal Temperature Range
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Te
mp
era
ture
(ºC
) Maximum Temperature
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Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedMean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedAll-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air All-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air
TemperatureTemperature
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Models – Temp MapsModels – Temp Maps
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Models - RF MapsModels - RF Maps
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Models – RF ContrModels – RF Contr
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Models – RF CVModels – RF CV
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Temp SeriesTemp Series
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MonRF SeriesMonRF Series
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Climate Change over India in Transient Climate Change over India in Transient Simulations (1980-2039 relative to Simulations (1980-2039 relative to 1920-79)1920-79)
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Models-MonRF varModels-MonRF var
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MonRF Change - ECHAMMonRF Change - ECHAM
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MonRF Change – HadCM3MonRF Change – HadCM3
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The Hadley Centre Regional Climate The Hadley Centre Regional Climate ModelsModels
(HadRM2/HadRM3H)(HadRM2/HadRM3H)
High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCMand sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM
Formulation identical to HadAMFormulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nestingOne-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley
Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian regionCentre using HadRM2 for the Indian region HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations
and scenario development will be performed at IITMand scenario development will be performed at IITM
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All-India Mean Monthly All-India Mean Monthly RainfallRainfall
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
/day
)
Observed
CTL
GHG (2041-60)
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All-India Seasonal RainfallAll-India Seasonal Rainfall
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
/sea
son
)
DJF MAM JJAS ON
Season
Observed
CTL
GHG (2041-60)
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All-India mean Surface Air All-India mean Surface Air TemperatureTemperature
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
per
atu
re (
C)
Observed
Control
GHG (2041-60)
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HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)(Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)(Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)Control)
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HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)Control)
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State-wise mean State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : precipitation scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Year
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
/se
as
on
)
CTL
GHG
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State-wise mean monsoon State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Ra
infa
ll C
ha
ng
e (
% o
f C
TL
)
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State-wise Mean State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
CTL
GHG
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State-wise Mean Annual State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Te
mp
era
ture
Ch
an
ge
(C
)
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HadRM2 scenarios for HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact distribution among impact groupsgroups
Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)and IS92a scenario (2041-60)
Each experiment has 20 years dataEach experiment has 20 years data Monthly and Daily data on various parametersMonthly and Daily data on various parameters Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid
spacingspacing Spatial means for administrative units (other Spatial means for administrative units (other
spatial units can be included)spatial units can be included) One standard CD set of monthly data with One standard CD set of monthly data with
basic climatic elements, and specialized data basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement CDs based on impact group’s requirement