Climate Change Scenarios and

socio-economic implications

Richard Harding,

CEH, United Kingdom

Moss et al 2010

Models for Scenario Analysis

Climate

models

Integrated

assessment

models

Impacts

models

Regional

Climate

Models

The SRES Linear procedure

Moss et al 2010

1996 to 2007

X n

o feedback

Economic Drivers

Environmental Drivers

Global

Regional

The SRES Socio-economic Scenarios

A1

A2

B1

B2

. The B1 emphasis is on global solutions

to economic, social, and environmental

sustainability, including improved

equity, but without additional climate

initiatives.

The A1 storyline and scenario family

describes a future world of very rapid

economic growth, global population that

peaks in mid-century and declines

thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new

and more efficient technologies.

The A2 storyline and scenario family

describes a very heterogeneous

world. The underlying them

e is self-

reliance and preservation of local

identities.

The B2 storyline and scenario family

describes a world in which the em

phasis

is on local solutions to economic, social,

and environmental sustainability.

39 ... scenarios

New

parallel approach for AR5

Reduce tim

e between

scenario generation and

impact modelling

More flexible system

Better use of clim

ate

model tim

e

More comparability

between Climate models

Moss et al 2010

a. Changes in radiative forcing relative to pre-industrial condition

b. Energy and industry CO2 emissions for the RCP candidates.

Range of

SRES

scenario

s

Requires knowledge of

carbon cycle and land

cover changes

Representative

Concentration Pathways

What 2020 and 2050 emissions ensure

we stay below 2

oC global warming

with 50% or more probability?

•Colour regions above give possible solutions. “W

hite Space”

means not possible.

•Strong dependence on current emissions pathway (hence

current uncertainty needs to be reduced).

Chris Huntingford (CEH), Jason Lowe (A

VOID

-Lead) and others

UKCP09

offers:

1.an increased level

of detail

2.Estimates of

uncertainty

Regional Model Climate Scenarios

UKCP09 –capturing modelling

uncertainty

Regional M

odel Climate

Scenarios

UKCP09 –

capturing m

odelling

uncertainty

Drivers of water use that m

ight influence future

water availability and quality and sectoral water

dem

and within Europe, and so inform

the scenario

development process include:

•Population and m

igration

•Economic growth

•Agricultural development

•Technological developments

•Climate change

•Land use change

•National and European policies and legislation

European W

ater Use Scenarios

Policy drivers in SCENES

•Water Framew

ork Directive

•Floods Directive & other

Water Quantity Directives

•Water Quality Directives

•CAP reform

& other

agricultural policies

•Biodiversity policies

Conceptual policy map for domestic water use

SCENES: Water Scenarios

for Europe and for

Neighbouring States

Water stress 2030 Sustainability First Scenario

http://www.1stcellmedia.de/customer/uni/cm

s/

The first-order drafts of storylines of the

future outlook of pan-Europe until 2050

WaterMIP: mean annual

water fluxes

TE

ST

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Am

azon

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Lena

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Changji

ang

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Ganges−

Bra

hm

.

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Ora

nje

1 g

wava

2 h

07

3 j

ule

s

4 l

pj

5 m

acpdm

6 m

ats

iro

7 m

pi−

hm

10 v

ic

11 w

ate

rgap

12 w

bm

plu

s

0

44

0

88

0

13

20

17

60

04

40

88

01

32

01

76

0

Danube

Runoff (mm year-1)

Evapotranspiration (mm year-1)

MacKenzie

Mississippi

Amazon

Parana

Rhine

Danube

Volga

Niger

Nile

Congo

Oranje

Lena

Indus

Ganges-B.

Mekong

HuangHe

Chang Jiang

Murray-Darling

MacKenzie

Mississippi

Amazon

Parana

Rhine

Danube

Volga

Niger

Nile

Congo

Oranje

Lena

Indus

Ganges-B.

Mekong

HuangHe

Chang Jiang

Murray-Darling

Concluding rem

arks

•We need a better dialogue between impacts, adaptation and

modelling communities

•Quicker throughput of clim

ate model output to impacts

communities

•More use of probabilistic forecasts –including chains of

uncertainty

•Better mechanisms to provide policy relevant advice

MPI-HM

Runoff Drought:

Mean drought duration per cell (1963-2001)

Van Huijgevoort et al.(ongoing)

ERA40

CRU

WATCH forcing

data, 1958-2001

Multi-model

runoff series

(daily)

Drought and

flood analysis

Global Extrem

es Analysis

20thc

Climate

model output

Bias

correction

21stc