Climate Change ResilienceClimate Change Resilienceforfor

Developing Country AgricultureDeveloping Country AgricultureParticularly Africa Particularly Africa

Gary ToenniessenGary ToenniessenMarch 2, 2009March 2, 2009World BankWorld Bank

Climate Change Resilience & Climate Change Resilience & AgrAgr..1.1. Making climate science more usefulMaking climate science more useful

to agricultureto agriculture2.2. Strengthening agricultural researchStrengthening agricultural research

for climate changefor climate change3. Managing climate risks & building3. Managing climate risks & building

safety netssafety nets4. Designing carbon markets to foster 4. Designing carbon markets to foster

agricultural development & povertyagricultural development & povertyreduction reduction

1.) Making climate science more1.) Making climate science moreuseful to agricultureuseful to agriculture

•• More useful projections of climate impactMore useful projections of climate impact& adaptation options (Stanford U)& adaptation options (Stanford U)

•• Improved collection, analysis & sharingImproved collection, analysis & sharingof weather information includingof weather information includingseasonal forecasts (ICPAC)seasonal forecasts (ICPAC)

•• Capacity building Capacity building (U of Colorado, RUFORUM)(U of Colorado, RUFORUM)

Stanford Crop Impact ModelStanford Crop Impact Model

Summary of data presented in: Lobell, D.B. et al, Science 319:607-610, 2008

2.) Strengthening agricultural 2.) Strengthening agricultural research for climate changeresearch for climate change

•• Build on existing coping strategiesBuild on existing coping strategies•• Increase biodiversity and collect atIncrease biodiversity and collect at

the margins (Crop Diversity Trust)the margins (Crop Diversity Trust)•• More resilient & robust crop varietiesMore resilient & robust crop varieties

(AGRA, IARCs, NARS)(AGRA, IARCs, NARS)•• Small holder water management &Small holder water management &

irrigation (MDG, IWMI)irrigation (MDG, IWMI)•• Livestock management (IUCN)Livestock management (IUCN)•• Capacity building (AGRA, RUFORUM)Capacity building (AGRA, RUFORUM)

Breeding drought tolerant rice by using Breeding drought tolerant rice by using MAS to locate genes contributing to the MAS to locate genes contributing to the component traits on rice chromosomescomponent traits on rice chromosomes

1

RM84RM220RM272

RM23RM5

RM246

RM128

RM302RM265

RM472

OSR19

RM225

RM527

RM3

RM340

RM30

RM141

6RM233A

RM8

RM174

RM324

RM262

RM183RM263

RM6

RM250

RM213

2RM122

RM13

RM194RM437

RM163

RM305RM188

RM178

RM87

RM334

5RM60

RM231

RM545

RM7

RM282

RM16

RM135RM55

RM265RM227

3RM335

RM261

RM185

RM471

RM177

RM252RM241

RM317

RM349RM280

4

RM293

RM243

RM237

RM232

RM303

RM528

RM289

RM50RM562

RM510

RM446

RM587

RM129RM584

RM314RM111

OSR6OSR1

RM167RM120

RM202

RM209RM229

RM21

RM206

RM254

RM224

11 OSR28

RM41

RM566RM321

RM257RM242

RM201

RM215

RM205

9RM222RM216

RM239

RM271RM258

RM228

RM333

10RM51

RM82

RM125RM180

RM11OSR22

OSR4RM351

RM118

RM172

7

OSR30

RM52

RM38

RM25

RM223

RM149

RM264

8

RM19RM247

RM101

RM313

RM309

RM270

RM17

RM4A

12

RM234

RM467

OSR33

RM332RM407

RM210

RM281

RM137

RM331

RM342A

RM179

RM20A

RM287

RM256

RM18RM463

RM211

From Binam From BR24 Binam or BR24/IR64 From IR64

RM14

RM411

RM598

RM506

RM515

RM524

RM297

RootRootdepthdepth

Requires Requires -- Population segregating for traitPopulation segregating for trait-- Managed drought environmentManaged drought environment

Scoring for root depthScoring for root depth

Linked DNA markers can substitute for Linked DNA markers can substitute for visual scoring of traits difficult to measure visual scoring of traits difficult to measure

(e.g., deep primary root )(e.g., deep primary root )

Deep primary root Shallow roots onlyDeep primary root Shallow roots only

& Can score for multiple genes simultaneously& Can score for multiple genes simultaneously

““Drought superior Drought superior –– the firstthe first””

Drought Tolerant Hybrid RiceDrought Tolerant Hybrid Rice

East India (Jharkhand & Bihar)East India (Jharkhand & Bihar)Drought tolerant rice Drought tolerant rice –– AshokaAshoka f 200f 200

PartnersPartners: IRRI, Birsa Agr. Univ. & Gramin Vikas Trust: IRRI, Birsa Agr. Univ. & Gramin Vikas Trust

High yields with High yields with adequate rainfalladequate rainfall

Resilient to droughtResilient to droughtwhen rains failwhen rains fail

CIMMYT’s Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa

3.) Managing climate risks and 3.) Managing climate risks and building safety netsbuilding safety nets

•• Weather indexed crop insurance (FSD)Weather indexed crop insurance (FSD)

•• Contingency planning and funding forContingency planning and funding forfood shortfalls due to climate (WFP)food shortfalls due to climate (WFP)

•• Markets to move food from surplus toMarkets to move food from surplus todeficit locations (AGRA)deficit locations (AGRA)

From Data to DollarsFrom Data to Dollars

Weather Indicator MapsWeather Indicator Maps

Generated Using:Generated Using:

Weather DataWeather Data

Crop Growth DataCrop Growth Data

Geographic BoundariesGeographic Boundaries

X

Vulnerable Vulnerable Population Maps Population Maps

& Profiles& Profiles

VAM InformationVAM Information

X

Operational Costs per Operational Costs per Effected BeneficiaryEffected Beneficiary

WFP Operational DataWFP Operational Data

WeatherWeatherInformationInformation

Estimated Estimated # in Need# in Need

Response Cost Response Cost Estimate by Estimate by

CountryCountry

Total Response Total Response Cost by RegionCost by Region

World Food ProgramWorld Food Program

4.) Carbon markets for agricultural 4.) Carbon markets for agricultural development & poverty reductiondevelopment & poverty reduction

in Africain Africa

•• Influence policy & establish anInfluence policy & establish anenabling environmentenabling environment

•• Achieve readiness and build capacity Achieve readiness and build capacity to implement to implement

•• Build strong AfricaBuild strong Africa--wide negotiating positionwide negotiating positionAfrican Climate Solution & BioAfrican Climate Solution & Bio--carbon Initiativecarbon Initiative

Commit to mitigationCommit to mitigationAdopt REDD at CopenhagenAdopt REDD at CopenhagenAllow AFOLU by 2013Allow AFOLU by 2013

•• Help African countries take lead & submitHelp African countries take lead & submit•• Support US policy allowing AFOLU offsetsSupport US policy allowing AFOLU offsets

in developing countriesin developing countries•• Promote REAL (Promote REAL (Reduced Emissions &Reduced Emissions &

Adaptation in LandscapesAdaptation in Landscapes))

Carbon MarketsInfluence Policy / Enabling Env.

(COMESA / WWF)

•• Legal frameworks (WWF, ELI)Legal frameworks (WWF, ELI)•• National carbon accounting (Clinton, U of C)National carbon accounting (Clinton, U of C)

Measure, monitor, certify, ITMeasure, monitor, certify, IT•• Smallholder sellerSmallholder seller’’s fund (COMESA, PTA)s fund (COMESA, PTA)•• National pilot projects (WWF)National pilot projects (WWF)

Technology transfer (ICRAF)Technology transfer (ICRAF)Smallholders generate credits Smallholders generate credits Optimize benefits for rural livelihoodsOptimize benefits for rural livelihoods

Cabon MarketsAchieve Readiness & Build Capacity

GLOBAL CROPGLOBAL CROPDIVERSITY TRUSTDIVERSITY TRUST

ClintonClintonFoundationFoundation

ThankThankYouYou

COMESACOMESA