Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability &

Risk Assessment

Rosa T. Perez, Ph. D.

Member, NPTE

Climate Change Commission

LCCAP Orientation Meeting with SUCs16 March 2017

Recto Room, Senate of the Philippines

NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 20171. Common DRR-CCA Methodology.

2. Climate change modeling at regional and national level (town/level)

3. Attribution of impacts to anthropogenic climate change

4. Sectoral and integrated impact studies and risk and vulnerability assessments (national, riverbasin/island-wide, local)– Heat/drought- and flood- resistant crops –

– Freshwater enhancement technology

– Climate change and human security

– Water, energy and carbon.

– Climate Resiliency of local communities in different ecosystems

– Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Hazards–

NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017

7. Risk-sharing mechanisms– Index-Based Insurance–

8. Solar Radiation Management –9. Coastal & Oceanic Adaptation : Science &

Technology Research Instruction Development Education

10.Science-based blue economy (BEST H2O STEWARDS)

The Basic Adaptation Planning Process

• The systematic process deals with all questions relevant for planning adaptation.

• Going one step at a time avoids mental blocks due to the over-complex challenge.

Four steps:

(1) Assess Risk/Impacts/Vulnerability

(2) Identify adaptation options

(3) Select adaptation measures

(4) Develop an M&E framework

Vulnerability Assessment

1. Common DRR-CCA Methodology.

V= f(E, S, AC)Source: IPCC- WG2, AR4

Understanding Vulnerability

V= f(E, S, AC)

CCA and DRR

Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk

Stressors: Climate variability and change

State of the system concern

Harm to the system

Generic Scheme

SensitivitySusceptibility

Adaptive Capacity

IPCC AR4

Exposure

VulnerabilityV=f(E,S,AC)

Exposure

Vulnerability

Hazard

Impact/Risk

R=f(H E V)

IPCC AR5

Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk

Planning Horizons

Time Scales Relevant

for Development

Defining adaptation

Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change impacts

Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation,

etc.

Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC

Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses

Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies

Source: UNDP

In reality, adaptation stands for a continuum of approaches. Often, ‘adaptation’ activities are linked

to more than one category

1Addressing Drivers

of Vulnerability

2Building Response

Capacity

3Managing Climate

Risk

4Confronting Climate

Change

Increase individual and community buffer

Build robust systems for problem-solving

Make use of climate information in decision-making

Respond directly to CC- related threats

Risk of maladaptation

Risk of maladaptation

Outside the development comfort zone

VulnerabilityFocus

ImpactFocus

A continuum from development to climate change

Need for Climate Information

Normal Development

Direct Adaptation Measures

Types of adaptation efforts

• “Serendipitous” Adaptation– Activities undertaken to achieve development

objectives incidentally achieve adaptation objectives. – The adaptation components of a given activity may be

noticed or emphasized only after the fact.

• Climate-Proofing of Ongoing Development Efforts– Activities added to an ongoing development initiative

to ensure its success under a changing climate. – Adaptation serves as means to achieve development

ends.

Types of adaptation efforts

• Discrete Adaptation– Activities undertaken specifically to achieve climate

adaptation objectives. – Development activities as means to achieve

adaptation ends.

• Confronting Climate Change– Actions focus almost exclusively on addressing

impacts associated with climate change• typically targeting climate risks that are clearly outside

historic climate variability• little bearing on risks that stem from anything other than

anthropogenic climate change

Framing Adaptation

1Addressing Drivers

of Vulnerability

2Building Response

Capacity

3Managing Climate

Risk

4Confronting Climate

Change

Increase individual and community buffer

Build robust systems for problem-solving

Make use of climate information in decision-making

Respond directly to CC- related threats

ExampleDiversification of livelihood strategies in areas vulnerable to flooding

ExampleParticipatory reforestation in the watershed to combat flood-induced landslide

Teaching farmers to collect climate data and integrate it into their planting decisions

Managing coral reefs in response to widespread coral bleaching

VulnerabilityFocus

ImpactFocus

Need for Climate Information

CC Detection and Attribution

CC Detection and Attribution

“Cascading” impacts of climate change from physical climate through ecosystems on

people can now be detected along chains of evidence.

Climate Change Impact Chains

Climate Change

Source: Adelphi/EURAC 2014.

Impacts on Ecosystems

(groundwater recharge, availability

of fertile soil and biodiversity)

Impacts on Ecosystem Services

(provision of food and water)

Impacts on Natural Resource Extraction

(agriculture, fishery, forestry)

Impacts on Natural Resource Processing

(industry and services)

Impacts on the Social Sphere

(individual, societal groups)

CC impacts on ecosystem

services and natural resources

directly affect people’s livelihoods

in developing countries

Changing

temperatures

& rainfall

Philippines

REGION 8

PROVINCEEastern Samar

Borongan City

ARCs

ADAPTATION MEASURES

• Improve coco-cropping system (e.g. introduction of livestock, forage)

• Replanting using disease and climate-resistant variety

• Pest control• Cover copping/mulching to conserve

soil moisture• Value-adding of coco products

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT

• Loss of crops and properties due to flooding

• copra production yield• household income

POTENTIAL BIOPHYSICAL IMPACT

• Excessive rainfall causing diseases of the fruit and leaves

• Die-off from water-logging

• Desiccation of fronds and shedding of young nuts from drought

• Increasing incidence of pest and diseases

• Uprooted, fallen trees from severe storm winds

• Yield variability

System of Interest

SOCIETY

CLIMATE STIMULUS*

• Seasonal mean temperature

• Drier dry season (drought), wetter wet season (floods)

• intensity and frequency of heavy rains

CC Impact Chain for Coconut Farming

ARC Coco Producing Households

Coconut Production

Exposure

Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Sensitivity

High vulnerability of small coconut farms and coco-producing farmers

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY• Agri-business potential• Xx km of farm roads• Limited training for coco

farming technologies • Farmers associations exist• ESSU can provide TA

- END –

Thank You !