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Climate Change

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Questions Are global warming and climate change the same thing? What is the difference between climate and weather? What is the greenhouse effect? What is the most abundant greenhouse gas? Is climate change real? What evidence is there for climate change? Does the hole in the ozone layer cause climate change?

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Whats the Difference? Global Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer) Global Warming Average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns.

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Weather vs. Climate Weather Short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere Climate Long-term average pattern of weather in a particular area Typically use 30 years of data

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Greenhouse Effect Earths average temperature would be 0F without the greenhouse effect compared to the average temperature of 60F that we experience.

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Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor: 0-4% Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ): 0.036% Methane (CH 4 ): 0.00017% Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O): 0.00003% CFCs, HFCs, SF 6

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Global Greenhouse Gases

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Evidence

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Carbon Dioxide Levels in Relation to Global Temperature

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Key Indicators Sea level Carbon Dioxide Concentration Global Surface Temperature Arctic Sea Ice Land Ice Timing of the seasons Allergy season Snowfall/Snowpa ck

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Ragweed Pollen Season These trends are strongly related to changes in the length of the frost-free season and the timing of the first fall frost.

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Cherry Tree blossom Peak bloom date from main cherry trees in the Tidal Basin in Washington, D.C. Peak bloom date occurs when 70% of blossoms are in full bloom. Since 1921, peak bloom dates have shifted earlier by 5 days.

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First Freeze Freeze dates have shifted later by a rate of half a day to one day per decade.

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Bird Migration Trends of northern movement are closely related to increasing winter temperature

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Radiative Forcing Greenhouse gases produced by humans have caused overall warming influence on Earths climate since 1750. Carbon dioxide is by far the biggest contributor.

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Evidence Sea Level Rise Global sea level rose 17 cm (6.7 in) in the last century Rate in the last decade nearly double that of the last century Global Temperature Rise Earth has warmed since 1880 with most of warming occurring since the 1970s 20 warmest years occurred since 1981 10 warmest years occurred in the past 12 years

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Evidence Warming Oceans Top 700 m (2,300 ft) of ocean showing warming of 0.302F since 1969 Shrinking Ice Sheets Greenland: lost 150-250 km 3 (36-60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006 Antarctica: lost 152 km 3 (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005

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Evidence Declining Arctic sea ice Extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over last several decades Glacial retreat Retreating almost everywhere around the world including Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa

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Evidence Extreme Events Number of record high temps increasing since 1950 Number of record low temps decreasing since 1950 Increasing numbers of intense rainfall events Ocean Acidification CO 2 content of oceans increasing since 1750 Currently increasing 2 billion tons per year Increased ocean acidity by about 30%

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Group of scientists from around the world that review and assess information on climate change Climate models and projections

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Projections for North America Decreasing snowpacksnowpack in the western mountains 5-20% increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions Increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves

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Projections for Latin America Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazon Risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many tropical areas Significant changes in water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy generation

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Projections for Europe Increased risk of inland flash floods More frequent coastal flooding and erosion Glacial retreat in mountainous areas Reduced snow cover and winter tourism Extensive species losses Reductions of crop productivity in South Europe

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Projections for Africa By 2020, 75-250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% in some regions by 2020 Agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised

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Projections for Asia Freshwater availability projected to decrease by 2050 Coastal areas at risk for increased flooding Death rate from disease associated with floods and droughts expected to rise

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Wisconsins Climate 1950-2006 Average temperature increased 1.5F Greatest amount of warming in winter and spring, especially NW Wisconsin Nighttime lows warming faster than daytime highs, especially in summer Decline in extremely cold winter nights, especially in NW Wisconsin Date of last spring freeze occurring 6-20 days earlier Date of first fall freeze occurring 3-8 days later Growing season increased up to 4 weeks Annual average precipitation increased 15% although parts of the North became drier

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Wisconsins Future Climate Projections 4-9F increase by mid-21 st Century Warming most pronounced in winter Fewer extremely cold winter nights and more hot summer days Probability of greater than 3 in. rainstorms will increase during spring and fall

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Projected change in the frequency of 90F days per year from 1980 to 2055 Projected change in the frequency of 2 inch precipitation events (days/decade) from 1980 to 2055

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Projected change in annual temperature from 1980 to 2055 Projected change in average winter temperature from 1980 to 2055

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Madison Lakes Ice cover http://climatewisconsin.org/story/ice-cover

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Temperature Change http://climatewisconsin.org/story/temperatur e-change http://climatewisconsin.org/story/temperatur e-change

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Shipping on the Great Lakes http://climatewisconsin.org/story/great-lakes- shipping http://climatewisconsin.org/story/great-lakes- shipping