Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin

( example of Uzbekistan )

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• Uzbekistan is a transition economy country with a high rate of population growth (1.8%)

• Of the total volume of consumption of primary energy sources, gas accounts for 80.8%, oil products - for 15.8%, coal - for 2.1%, and hydropower - for 1.3% (1997)

• Over the recent decades the efficiency of energy use has decreased

• The country is located in an arid zone of Asia, with desert and semi-desert accounting for 70% of its territory; agriculture is based on irrigated farming

• The country has already been experiencing conditions of a significant deficit of water resources, the Aral Sea crisis is the most acute problem

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•Uzbekistan features very high level of antropogenic pressure on natural resources throughout all its territory•nearly total volume of river runoff is utilized for irrigation •degradation of cultivated land is observed (intensive salinization, all kinds of soil erosion) as a result of irrigation water deficit ;•shrinking and degradation of natural pastures are taking place•biodiversity is decreasing, whole ecosystems are damaged and many an inhabitation are destroyed (Amudarya delta)•natural ecosystems and agriculture have become more vulnerable to climate changes

Direct and reciprocal relations among Climate Change problems in Uzbekistan 

Humanactivity

Climate change

Declineof biodiversity

Land degradationReductionof water resources

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Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers water Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers water scarcityscarcityIntensive runoff utilization for irrigation is the reason for Aral Intensive runoff utilization for irrigation is the reason for Aral Sea reductionSea reduction

U z b e k i s t a n

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Antropogenic Aral Sea Antropogenic Aral Sea reduction in the past few reduction in the past few

decadesdecades

Irrigation zones Irrigation zones

Assessment of Vulnerability of River Watershed to Natural Changes in climatic parameters shows a decrease in the run-off

at a rise of air temperature

Changes in water inflow into Charvak (а) and Nurek (b) reservoirs in case of increase in air temperature1 – air temperature norm 2 – increase temperature on 2C in October -September3 – increase temperature on 2C in October -March

0 50100150200250300350Q, ì3/ñ 123a)Ãîäîâîé Âåãåòàöèîííûé ñòîê

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 9001000123á)Ãîäîâîé Âåãåòàöèîííûé ñòîê Q, ì3/ñ

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Under current conditions, water resoUnder current conditions, water resouurces shortages in Uzbekistan, rces shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic

problemproblem6

Assessment of climate change impact on water Assessment of climate change impact on water resources of Uzbekistanresources of Uzbekistan

Integral assessment of flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya Integral assessment of flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical model of river run-rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical model of river run-

off formation at relevant climatic scenariosoff formation at relevant climatic scenarios..

Main conclusion:Main conclusion: Neither from a climatic scenarios Neither from a climatic scenarios don’t shown a increasing of water resources in future.don’t shown a increasing of water resources in future.

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Norma R2030 GFDL GISS UKMO CCCM

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normnorm

calculationcalculation

Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at vegetation period Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at vegetation period reinforces a shortage of water resources for irrigation, that it reinforces a shortage of water resources for irrigation, that it have negative effect to crop productivityhave negative effect to crop productivity

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Temperature in Uzbekistan

An air temperature rise will intensify the process of ice degradation and ice reserve reduction in mountain rivers

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-2.5-2

-1.5-1

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193319391945195119571963196919751981198719931999Observation data for 1968-1998

shows that the Abramov Glacier has lost 21 m of its mass in water equivalent

( 18% of mass )To 2020 is expected to lose

additional 17% of its ice

For 1957 – 1980 Pamir-Alay glaciers has lost113 км3 (19%) of water reserve

CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY

Amudarya R.

Syrdarya R.

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020406080100120140160180200

1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

•In the present time drought in region formulates due of precipitation deficit•As example, 2000 in Uzbekistan was extremal drying year ( 68.6% from norm)•In future a decrease of snow and ice share of water reserve arises an additional threat of resumption of exremal drying years• Now important to research the timely frameworks of possible sustainable water resources shortage in Aral Sea Basin in accordance with new GHG emission scenarios

Ano1320 > 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100100 - 120120 - 140 >160

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EW

S2000 year

Многолетние изменения годовых сумм осадков (% от нормы 1961-1990гг)

Such factors as drought and human-induced changes (the existing irrigation techniques and the global warming) are inter-related, which fact increases their negative impact

Change of annual temperature anomaly in Uzbekistan

Isl1 < 500500 - 575575 - 650650 - 725725 - 800 > 800

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Isl2<500500-575575-650640-725725-800>800NEWSMM

Changes in the Potential evaporation in different 30-year periods (June - August)

1940-1969

1970-1999

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-2.5-2

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193319391945195119571963196919751981198719931999

Iso2<110110-140140-170170-200200-230>230NEWSMM

<110110-140140-170170-200200-230>230NEWSMM

Changes in the Potential evaporation in different 30-year periods (September-November)

1940-1969

1970-1999

Changes in the annual values of the Drought Index registered at the Chimbai (Aral Sea area) and Tamdy ( Kyzylkum Desert)

An assessment of changes in the Drought Index has permitted to compare objectively aridity tendencies in various parts of territory and in different seasons

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S-2-1.5-1-0.500.51S19271937194719571967197719871997TamdyChimbai

The following conclusions may be drawn based on the The following conclusions may be drawn based on the analysis of computed aridity indicators characteristic of the analysis of computed aridity indicators characteristic of the territory of Uzbekistan:territory of Uzbekistan:

climate aridity is clearly manifested in the territory of Uzbekistan;more obvious tendencies towards climate aridity are traced in summer and autumn, with a high temporal variability;the largest share is contributed into the annual trend of aridity increase by the summer season.

TThe exposed tendencies may intensify land degradation now he exposed tendencies may intensify land degradation now in progress in the countryin progress in the country,, decreasing quality and quantity decreasing quality and quantity of of water reserves water reserves

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Changes in crop yelds in Kapakalpastan

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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

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cotton

Trend of crop yield designates by land degradationFluctuation of crop yield - by climatic conditions

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Bukhara

Tashkent

Kashkadarya

Surkhandarya

Andijan

Fergana

SamarkandSyrdarya

Jizzak

Namangan

Kapakalpakstan

KhorezmProvinces

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Possible drop in yield (%) of cotton in case of an increase in the number of high temperature days

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Most important from biological indicators of land degradation is vegetation cover In the connection wit it for separate regions of the country (as example, Karakalpakstan,including Aral Sea and Amudarya delta, and others) needs the following:•to study of contribution values of climate change to land salinity in Uzbekistan •to conduct the complex researches of crop yield trends arising by water deficit, salinity soil and climate change•to develop concrete recommendations on location of agriculture crop in accordance with climatic conditions in the future•to estimate climate change impact to biodiversity reduction

For last 25 years in separate regions of Uzbekistan is observed sustainable decrease of desert pastures, especially in Aral Sea region. 17

Observation data shows significant change in steady dates of the hot (t >25°C) and cold (t <10°C) periods

It will be possible to increase energy consumption for air conditioning but will decrease it for heating

( Samarkand ) Observation period1961-200018

Duration of hot period

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1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Числодней

Heating period

105115125135145155165175

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Числодней

Climate Change and vulnerability indicators Climate Change and vulnerability indicators observed in Uzbekistanobserved in Uzbekistan

• Significant air temperature rise • Changes of duration of cold and warm periods • Increase of probability of thermal stress on human, animals

plants• Reduction of crop yield and pastures related with climate change

and land degradation• Shortage of water resources called by climate change and

unsustainable water use for irrigation

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OutputsOutputs • An observation data for last years shows that in present time in An observation data for last years shows that in present time in

Uzbekistan is observed dangerous changes in climatic systemUzbekistan is observed dangerous changes in climatic system• Climate change negative consequences put up on extent problem Climate change negative consequences put up on extent problem

of land degradation and water resources deficitof land degradation and water resources deficit

In Uzbekistan adaptation options are related to optimization of use of water and land resources:

• Solving the water supply problem and securing guaranteed water availability at the source

• Reconstruction of water-distribution and irrigation systems

• Application of water-saving technologies in agriculture

• Introduction of drought-resistant high-yield crop varieties

• Reclamation of degraded land, including cultivated lands and natural pastures

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• Underestimation of existing threat may lead to strong negative consequences in the country

• For decision of climate change problem in Uzbekistan important the following:

• authentic assessment past changes, improvement of climate observation system, development early warning system of dangerous weather events (drought, dust storms, strong precipitation and others)

• integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change, development of adaptation measures

Main and more difficult direction of climate change enabling activity are development and implementation of measures on greenhouse gases emission reduction

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