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Climate ChangePost Mortem

2014

David Henderson

Copenhagen - Outcome

• Political treaty with goal of 2 deg C limit– Each country sets own targets– No enforcement

• Green Fund to help LDC’s– $30 billion in 2012 rising to $100 billion

• Accounting and Strong Transparency

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Why did Copenhagen Fail

• BASIC group and US didn’t really want a stronger treaty

• Disarray in the Danish leadership– Sacked the person with best connections 2

weeks before the conference– PM didn’t know issues

• EU Politics• Cold Weather in Copenhagen• http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8426835.stm

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How are we Doing?• 2010 saw 6% rise in greenhouse gases

– China & India 8% increase in coal burning– US emissions up

• 2011 Emissions up 3.2% overall– China up 9.3% but CO2 per $GDP declined

– US dropped 1.7% from 2010– US dropped 7.7% since 2006 (recession+

more natural gas replacing coal)

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2012 How are we Doing?

• Actual emissions worse that IPCC worst case scenario

• IPCC appears too conservative on estimates

• Kyoto signers met 2012 targets• US rapidly replacing coal with

natural gas

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Show me the $$

• $30 Billion commitment not fully met

• Much comes from ‘old’ money already committed rather than adding new money.

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Durban Meeting 2012

• 2015 deadline for review of progress

• EU led by England formed coalition with LDC’s to split them from China

• Voluntary Reductions till 2020• Then Legally Binding Treaty

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Adaptation

• 2 degree or more warming probable– Present CO2 above 400 ppm

• Need to address mitigation– How do communities and nations adapt– What are financial responsibilities

• Developed Nations that caused the problem• Insurance Issues in ALL countries

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Fairness?

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Fairness?

• 1 Trillion Tonnes total emissions FOREVER

• Over half way there now• http://trillionthtonne.org/

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Mora et al Nature 2013

• By 2047, the averge temperatures will be hotter than anything you have experienced in the past 150 years.

• Tropics get there by 2030• Aggressive action pushes this 20

farther into the future.

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Things We Know for Certain

• Humans are causing a increase in CO2

• CO2 is a GHG and increases Global Temperature

• No one can predict where this is going

• If we mess things up, it will take 1000 years to fix it

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Limits of Models

• Assume linear behavior– Atmospheric circulation– Thermo-haline ocean circulation

• Gulf Stream in Atlantic

– Role of Clouds not known

• Collapse of Polar Vortex 2011 Winter• Historic collapse of Gulf Stream• Drastic shifts in Paleoclimate Record

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Thermohaline circulation

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Where are the Uncertainties?

• Did CO2 Rise before or after Temperature– End of Last Ice Age

– Nature Sept 30, 2012 – CO2 First

• What will be the effect of Clouds?– Some cool earth– Some warm earth– More moisture means more clouds

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Fracking – The End of Coal?

• Natural gas has replaced 35% of coal in electricity generation in the US

• Large reserves in Europe and China• Direct conversion 50% reduction in

GHG• New Gas turbine plants 70%• Combined Heat and Power 95%

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Fracking – The End of Coal?

• But Leaking Methane cancels some? of the advantage– EPA Rules capture this and save money if

adopted– Study in Texas found very low leakage– Second study found very high leaakage

• Fracking fluid pollutes land and water

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The Bottom Line

• “Need to reduce fossil fuel use by 90%”– Barney Ellison, Prof. chemistry, U.

Colorado

• Parallel with Acid Rain in Europe– Started arguing over 20-30% reductions– Science finally settled on 90% – 40 year process to reach goal

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Progress in 2014

• US-EPA 30% Reduction from Coal– 2005 baseline was high point– Only 16% more by 2030– Doesn’t meet Obama’s Copenhagen

Commitment

• China New Emission and Efficiency Law– Reduction in Coal– Predict no more growth in coal by 2025

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A Ray of Hope

• Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012

• Analysis that is already moving into policy

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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation

• Reduce Methane Emissions– Coal mining– Oil and gas production– Cattle farming– Rice growing

• Methane leads to Ozone production– Crop loss– Respiratory problems

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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation

• Reduce Carbon Particulate– Cooking fires– Burning biomass– Diesel exhaust

• Carbon leads to Climate Warming– Some debate about how much

• Respiratory problems – Asthma

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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation

• Costs and Benefits– Reduce global temperature by 0.5 oC

2050– Prevent 0.7- 4.7 million deaths/year– Increase crop yield 30-135 million

metric tons per year in 2030 and beyond

– Benefits 3-20 times costs– Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012

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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation

• Costs and Benefits– Benefits to same

countries paying costs

• Food Production• Science Vol 335,

p. 183 2012

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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation

• Costs and Benefits– Benefits to same

countries paying costs

• Deaths Avoided• Science Vol 335,

p. 188 2012

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Western Fuels Argument

• Plants do grow better in high CO2

• But – Only with enough nutrients

• High CO2 Plants are not as nutritious– Animals need to eat more of them to

live– NC Study Insects starve on them – get

full before get sufficient nutrition

CO2 440 ppm

• C4 Plants- Recent evolution– Less water lost through leaves– Corn, crabgrass

• C3 Plants – Most plants– Require more water– Need lower temperatures– Wheat, Barley, Rice, Sugar Beets

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Effects of Global Warming Virtually

Certain

• Stratospheric Cooling• Ozone Layer Depletion• Changes in Jet Stream

– Shifts in weather patterns

• Loss of Arctic Polar Vortex 2011

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Effects Here Now

• Vermont and New Hampshire– 40% increase in precipitation– 20% decrease in soil moisture

• Alaska – 9 deg F temp increase in 1990’s– Permafrost melting

• Trees and electric poles fall over• Roads sink

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Loss of Coastland 2100

Global Migration

• Pew Center for Climate Research– 300 million people displaced by 2050

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List of Short Science Games• European Response to SO2 Pollution – Helsinki 1984 (Chemistry, ENVS)• European Response to NOx Pollution – Sophia 1987 (Chemistry, ENVS)• Challenging the USDA Food Pyramid, 1991 (Food and Nutrition)• Climate Change in Copenhagen – 2009 (Chemistry, ENVS)• Feeding Africa, 2002 (Chemistry, Biology)• Chemistry at Karlsruhe, 1860 (Chemistry, History of

Science)• The Pluto Debate, 1999-2006 (Astronomy, Physics)• Ways and Means, 1935 (Math)• Diet and the Killer Diseases – 1976 McGovern Hearings (Food and

Nutrition)

• London 1854: Cesspits, Cholera, and the Conflict over the Broad Street Pump (Biology, Microbiology)

List of Long Science Games• Acid Rain in Europe, 1979-1989

– SO2 Nox, Catalytic Converters and Leaded Gas

• Kansas 1999: Evolution or Creationism– Includes Big Bang Cosmology

• The Trial of Galileo: Aristotelianism, the “New Cosmology,” and the Catholic Church, 1616-33– Cosmology and Astronomy

• Darwin, the Copley Medal and the Rise of Naturalism

Instructor Resources• Instructor’s Manual for each game

– Suggested syllabus– Tips on role assignment and game

management

• Student Roles (20-30 per game)• Journal articles for students• Facebook - Faculty Lounge (Private

Group)

Web Resources• http://reacting.barnard.edu• www.rttp.org• https://sites.google.com/site/reactingscience/home• Journal Collections– `Food Pyramid– Acid Rain (SO2 and NOx)– Diet and Killer Diseases (Dietary fat)– Feeding Africa (GM Food)

Anecdotal Observations• Students get to know each other early

(Karlsruhe 2nd week of semester)• Breaks down typical polarizations in class

– Race, Class level, gender– Students work outside class in groups– Many work with student they might never

talk to• Students were more interactive through

term.

General Observations

• Virtually 100% attendance during games• Students engaged• Students have fun• Encourages group work in Factions• Each game provides leadership

opportunities• Peer Pressure works toward deeper

engagement

What did you Like?

Acknowledgements• NSF-CCLI Award 0920441 2009-

2013• Mark Carnes• Center for Assessment Research and

Study – JMU– Donna Sundre– Megan Rogers